The Brexit aftermath thread

[Slant]

Interesting twitter thread as to how a deal might work...

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/statu...26568449781760

... but I won't be holding my breath.

A twitter thread isn't exactly reputable information, and certainly not explaining it well. This could be something, but it may not be enough.

[kaid]

The big problem with that plan is Northern ireland. Setting up some kind of sea border would be doable but likely will cause some factions of NI to lose their shit about being treated differently than those who live on the main island.

[Demolitia]

Curious why you think it was a stunt?

The UK asked to move the location as the conference was beginning, so the choice was to cancel the entire conference immediately or to go ahead regardless.

I can understand BoJo not being too keen on holding a press conference 10 meters away from anti brexit protesters yelling profanities at him.
Bettel could have been a bit more diplomatic about the whole thing, have a common declaration and Q&A with the press.
Luxembourg is not a very large country, but I can't believe there is absolutely nowhere else where they could each have their conference and a bunch of journalists around.
While I find the whole thing rather comical, it just appears like Bettel was playing strongman in front of the protestors outside for his own amusement.

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Of course Macron and Merkel wouldn't have done this. If Germany or France, the historical enemies that the UK still actually, literally sees as enemies, had done this, it would have blown up way bigger. Luxembourg, on the other hand, can do this and serve as a demonstration. The UK leadership needs to be taken down a lot more pegs than this before they can be reasoned with. This was a good thing.

Edit: The most important bits in this interview is when he corrected British journalists and clearly told them that he, the Luxembourg PM, does not have a mandate to negotiate. A misconception that the British still don't get. Barnier is the contact and nobody else. The entire EU's efforts are focused in that one person.

If he wanted to scold BoJo like a toddler, he could also have done so in a place where there isn't an angry mob literally 10 meters away shouting at them, and give him a chance to reply. He is free to do such declarations before Council meetings, or random interviews. Coming from a head of State, this feels a bit petty.

[Kallisto]

I can understand BoJo not being too keen on holding a press conference 10 meters away from anti brexit protesters yelling profanities at him.
Bettel could have been a bit more diplomatic about the whole thing, have a common declaration and Q&A with the press.
Luxembourg is not a very large country, but I can't believe there is absolutely nowhere else where they could each have their conference and a bunch of journalists around.
While I find the whole thing rather comical, it just appears like Bettel was playing strongman in front of the protestors outside for his own amusement.

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If he wanted to scold BoJo like a toddler, he could also have done so in a place where there isn't an angry mob literally 10 meters away shouting at them, and give him a chance to reply. He is free to do such declarations before Council meetings, or random interviews. Coming from a head of State, this feels a bit petty.

Or Bojo could stop being a coward and actually face the protestors and do the press conference there. He wanted to be PM he should do everything that comes with it, the perks and the drawbacks. How many times has a PM stood in front of number 10 with loud protestors mere yards away at the road entrance?

[Gibblewink]

Or Bojo could stop being a coward and actually face the protestors and do the press conference there. He wanted to be PM he should do everything that comes with it, the perks and the drawbacks. How many times has a PM stood in front of number 10 with loud protestors mere yards away at the road entrance?

Pretty much this.

Also I rather doubt that Bettel would have been quite as harsh if Boris had had the stones to show up and take the questions that were now left for Bettel to answer.

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[Demolitia]

Or Bojo could stop being a coward and actually face the protestors and do the press conference there. He wanted to be PM he should do everything that comes with it, the perks and the drawbacks. How many times has a PM stood in front of number 10 with loud protestors mere yards away at the road entrance?

Oh don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to defend BoJo. He deserves all the shit people want to throw at him.
I don't know, I think 2 heads of states should be able to agree to a place for a place conference that suits everyone.
If your prime minister is being yelled out from the road outside no.10, that's fine. But putting a visiting head of state into this situation when they said beforehand they wouldn't put up with it is another. I think that's basic diplomatic courtesy but I might be wrong.

[Monster Hunter]

I'd honestly assume their target voters are as much Blairites as they are moderates and Remain conservatives.

The lib dems are traditionally center left. There liberal by the definition. What marks them as different to Blairite labour during that time is subtle but fundemental and that was the role of the free markets. In a way one nation torys are closer to liberal Democrats than Blairites but all 3 have so much in common I always found it strange 2 of the 3 chose to be enclaves in bigger party's with less in common.

They now have a fairly relevant place as a center left liberal globalist option as Labour has drifted back to the middle left roots that though ideologically pure kept it generally out of power for most of the last century.

[Demolitia]

That was my take. I thought it was counter-productive, and will probably shore up support for Boris.

Imagine the Brexiteers treated a visiting pro-european leader like that in the UK-I think it would be a pretty shitty thing to do. (I'm not defending the womble obviously)

I don't think it will really make a difference one way or another.
If Trump avoided virtually all of London during his visit because of protests, BoJo will probably get away with avoiding a courtyard.

[Monster Hunter]

The thing is with both the Tories and Labour moving away from that center space, Lib Dems should have a chance. In a system other than FPTP the UK could easily have three parties with solid representation.

Even with FPTP, the situation is such that the stars have aligned like that crazy few decades at the start of that last century that saw Labour over take the liberals and the liberals merge with the Democrats.

Now I just as every one else can't tell what the majority mood actually is. I can tell both labour and the Conservatives are less popular and are in danger of an upset. What I can't tell is how much of the vote is going to bleed away from them and how much will go to the lib dems, green and brexit party.

One things for sure, the next general election (which I belive as many do is likley to happen in November as either a no confidence motion is passed when Parliament returns or the queen's speech gets voted down.) is likly to be a very very exciting close run thing, much closer between all the party's than we have seen for generations.

[Monster Hunter]

Why would there be a GE after a VoNC? I'd expected a government of national unity and a referendum tbh.

Corbyn unfortunately. Same reason the idea was thrown out over the summer when Labour proposed such a plan. + its not immediately needed now the so called "surrender law" has Royal assent, the other opposition party's don't trust corbyn, they don't trust his real loyalty to remain and they don't like his old school unionist brand of leftism, and Labour won't entertain the idea of a goverment of unity unless there man is at the head.

If the law hadn't passed that dictated the pm had to get an extension if he can't find a deal by the 19th then I'd agree with you that out of desperation to prolong the brexit deadline the other party's and rebels would likly have bowed to corbyns demands, but now even if an election is called bojo will stay pm till the day of the vote and is still bound to the law requiring him to get that extension.

At this point in time the party's are trying to balance stopping no deal brexit / brexit at all and unfortunately at the same time maintain an election footing that means they don't want to be seen as compramising with there soon to be competition.

It's very facinating, delicate situation and I don't for a minute envy the party leaders at this time.

[Demolitia]

Why would there be a GE after a VoNC? I'd expected a government of national unity and a referendum tbh.

From Wikipedia: Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, a passing of a motion of no confidence is one of only two ways in which an early election can occur (the other is a motion to hold an early election passed by at least two-thirds of MPs). Following a successful motion, Parliament must dissolve, unless the motion is overturned within 14 days by the passing of an explicit motion of confidence. This procedure is designed to allow a minority government time to seek the support of other parties (as a formal coalition or with a confidence and supply arrangement) to avoid having to face re-election, or to allow an alternative government to be formed.

So the first time this MoNC was called under FTPA 2011 was by Corbyn in January 2019 after May failed to pass her first "meaningful vote". but it failed by 100 votes.
But a GE under FTPA 2011 was called by May in 2017, which was approved by 2/3 of Parliament.

Missed that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWc0...ature=youtu.be
Feels like with every swap of PM the UK get more vague and dodgy. Actual work and responsibility don't suit BoJo. He has aged 20 years in a month

[Monster Hunter]

From Wikipedia: Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, a passing of a motion of no confidence is one of only two ways in which an early election can occur (the other is a motion to hold an early election passed by at least two-thirds of MPs). Following a successful motion, Parliament must dissolve, unless the motion is overturned within 14 days by the passing of an explicit motion of confidence. This procedure is designed to allow a minority government time to seek the support of other parties (as a formal coalition or with a confidence and supply arrangement) to avoid having to face re-election, or to allow an alternative government to be formed.

So the first time this MoNC was called under FTPA 2011 was by Corbyn in January 2019 after May failed to pass her first "meaningful vote". but it failed by 100 votes.
But a GE under FTPA 2011 was called by May in 2017, which was approved by 2/3 of Parliament.

Missed that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWc0...ature=youtu.be
Feels like with every swap of PM the UK get more vague and dodgy. Actual work and responsibility don't suit BoJo. He has aged 20 years in a month

I think what he means is why the GE over the unity goverment.

The opposition also get the chance within the 14 days to try to form a goverment and working majority, if they do and thus the prior goverment fails then they take over without a GE.

This was the plan proposed by corbyn over this summer. Pass a motion of no confidence, then form a "national unity goverment" (a goverment consisting of and supported by members from all opposition Partys + rebels of the standing party), this is something that is usualy only made during times of extream national crisis such as a world war to allow goverment to function essentially without opposition and often only last as long as the crisis.

Corbyn failed to persuade the other party's and rebels needed to buy into this plan because as much as they fear brexit they also fear a corbyn goverment and a fear that they would take damage from there supporters by supporting a corbyn lead goverment, an alternative was proposed by the lib dems to use the same plan but instead have the farther and mother of the house both non Labour become the leader and deputy leader of the unity goverment, but Labour refused a unity goverment that didn't have there leader as its head, so the plan fell apart and is still stuck on that deadlock.

[Dhrizzle]

I think what he means is why the GE over the unity goverment.

The opposition also get the chance within the 14 days to try to form a goverment and working majority, if they do and thus the prior goverment fails then they take over without a GE.

This was the plan proposed by corbyn over this summer. Pass a motion of no confidence, then form a "national unity goverment" (a goverment consisting of and supported by members from all opposition Partys + rebels of the standing party), this is something that is usualy only made during times of extream national crisis such as a world war to allow goverment to function essentially without opposition and often only last as long as the crisis.

Corbyn failed to persuade the other party's and rebels needed to buy into this plan because as much as they fear brexit they also fear a corbyn goverment and a fear that they would take damage from there supporters by supporting a corbyn lead goverment, an alternative was proposed by the lib dems to use the same plan but instead have the farther and mother of the house both non Labour become the leader and deputy leader of the unity goverment, but Labour refused a unity goverment that didn't have there leader as its head, so the plan fell apart and is still stuck on that deadlock.

Mother of the house is Harriet Harman who is a Labour MP.

[Monster Hunter]

Mother of the house is Harriet Harman who is a Labour MP.

hu...tbh i couldn't remember who the mother of the house was, im also not sure she was even offered it, but i know ken Clarke, a tory, is the farther and was pushed to be leader of a unity government by the lib dems. instead of corbyn.

[Slant]

If he wanted to scold BoJo like a toddler, he could also have done so in a place where there isn't an angry mob literally 10 meters away shouting at them, and give him a chance to reply. He is free to do such declarations before Council meetings, or random interviews. Coming from a head of State, this feels a bit petty.

No, it feels like someone isn't taking the bullshit anymore.

[mvaliz]

If he wanted to scold BoJo like a toddler, he could also have done so in a place where there isn't an angry mob literally 10 meters away shouting at them, and give him a chance to reply. He is free to do such declarations before Council meetings, or random interviews. Coming from a head of State, this feels a bit petty.

You do realize that's a pre-aranged place, right? Like - they set up 2 podiums, and a press area + Security and such? It's not a thing where you go "What-hoe Ol'sport! Given the who-hah, lets say we take this little tussle of ours and jolly-well parade this over to the nearest pub. *sniff* Savey?"

[zealo]

No, it feels like someone isn't taking the bullshit anymore.

Pretty much.

Feelings of starting to get fed up with all this crap isn't something limited to Luxembourg as far as the general mood in continental Europe about Brexit goes, they're just a country small enough to be able to diplomatically get away with what Bettel did.

[draykorinee]

Its normal to have conferences in front of people and the public, why are people suddenly jumping to attack this practice just because Boris is a chicken shit heel? Oooh its too noisy for me, pathetic.

Former Brexit minister David Jones tweeted: “I have no doubt that very many Luxembourgers are dismayed by their prime minister’s extraordinary behaviour.”

Highly fucking unlikely, the rest of Europe were laughing at us with him.

[Crispin]

I can understand BoJo not being too keen on holding a press conference 10 meters away from anti brexit protesters yelling profanities at him.
Bettel could have been a bit more diplomatic about the whole thing, have a common declaration and Q&A with the press.
Luxembourg is not a very large country, but I can't believe there is absolutely nowhere else where they could each have their conference and a bunch of journalists around.
While I find the whole thing rather comical, it just appears like Bettel was playing strongman in front of the protestors outside for his own amusement.

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If he wanted to scold BoJo like a toddler, he could also have done so in a place where there isn't an angry mob literally 10 meters away shouting at them, and give him a chance to reply. He is free to do such declarations before Council meetings, or random interviews. Coming from a head of State, this feels a bit petty.

The location was arranged, just because BoJo apparently needs his safe space and prefere to avoid regular people, does not mean that countries, which he indirectly have insulted via his Brexit campaign, should adhere to the coward in him. Heck he once rode of on his bike from 1 journalist asking questions, tuck tail and run is what he does, unless of course he's in the parliment screaming with all the other nutcases.

[Slant]

Well we are the laughing stock of the world now even more laughable than trump which certainly is an achievement in itself.

Not you, your Government and your politicians. Remainers are just the victims, much like everyone else in Europe.

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Highly fucking unlikely, the rest of Europe were laughing at us with him.

I know I fist pumped the air.