Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[zenkai]

Republicans are back to trusting polls again? Cool.

I think you missed the mark, he said

That is true. And time will tell how important these approvals are worth. I am thinking there has been a President who got reelected who was only at around 48% approval rating. Truman? Will have to look that up.....

While not a indication exactly what will happen, polls can be a indication of trends. They can be misleading and have been on occasion. So take what you will from them.

Doesn't sound very trusting to me.

[Breccia]

Tough economic news for Trump. Home related. Home sales are slowing, but oddly enough, mortgage rates are rising...despite the Fed cutting rates, which maybe hasn't fully kicked in yet.

The housing market continued to slow as mortgage applications fell 10.1% from last week, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey.

The MBA survey released this morning follows weak numbers from the Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, which rose just 2% month-over-month in July and did not rise at all on a monthly basis after seasonal adjustments.

This represents the slowest rate of home price appreciation since 2012.

A drop in home sales is not supposed to happen in a healthy economy. This is yet another objective measurement that we do not have a healthy economy.

Thing is, Trump knows this. WaPo goes into detail. It's from Sept 10th.

The confluence of two new events neatly captures this dynamic: Trump’s rally in North Carolina on Monday night at which he fearmongered relentlessly about immigrants and socialists, and the release of a new Post-ABC News poll showing Trump’s numbers on the economy slipping perilously.

The new Post-ABC News poll paints an ugly picture for Trump. His approval rating now sits at 38 percent, a drop of 6 points since June. Approval of his handling of the economy has slipped 5 points, to 46 percent, with 47 percent disapproving.

And while 56 percent rate the economy positively, 60 percent expect a recession in the next year. An abysmal 35 percent approve of Trump’s handling of trade relations with China, vs. 56 percent who disapprove — even as 60 percent are concerned that Trump’s trade war will hike prices for them.

How can a majority rate the economy well even as Trump himself remains underwater on it? One answer is that Trump isn’t getting the credit for the state of the economy, probably because his individual economic policies remain deeply unpopular and Americans fear things are deteriorating.

Dig into the demographic breakdowns and it looks worse. The Associated Press reports that Trump advisers worry that support for Trump among moderate Republican and independent voters is very tenuous and could easily be ruptured by an economic slowdown — a reference to the more educated and suburban white voters Trump absolutely must win back.

And the Post-ABC News poll confirms those fears: Among both independents and college-educated whites, Trump’s approval is an abysmal 36 percent, and large majorities of both groups expect a recession and disapprove of Trump’s handling of China and trade. Remarkably, only 42 percent of college-educated whites approve of Trump on the economy, vs. 53 percent who disapprove.

Trump jetted to North Carolina on Monday to salvage a special House election for Republicans in a district that he carried in 2016 by 11 points. Even a tight Republican victory will suggest that Trump could remain a major liability for the GOP heading into 2020; as one elections expert puts it, this race wouldn’t be at all close if it weren’t for him.

And yet, at his rally, Trump cranked up the hate-mongering to 11. He goaded his audience into venting angry abuse at reporters covering the event. He smeared undocumented immigrants as “hardened, horrible criminals.” He claimed that Democrats are releasing rapists into communities. He railed that the election is a referendum on the socialist and “America-hating left.”

That Trump needs to go to such great lengths to rev up his base — in a frantic effort to put the Republican over the top in a district he won overwhelmingly only three years ago — is remarkable.

Call it Trump’s Law: The more it looks like President Trump is in political trouble on the economy, the louder he’ll crank up the dial on his hate-mongering.

Think back over the last few years. The article's author is correct. Trump is worried he's losing his base. As posted before, he has good reason to. He's fallen everywhere, and that will cost him those few votes that put him ahead in a few states.

[zenkai]

Nope. 41.4% and still far lower than when he was inaugurated. Please post constructively.

Miss read, sorry

[unfilteredJW]

I think you missed the mark, he said



Doesn't sound very trusting to me.

I'm shocked you don't have an issue with their weasel language.

[zenkai]

His high was 45.7% average back in Feb of 2018. And Trump has already defied history. lol!

Feb 2017 45.9%, it was 42% in Feb 2018

[DocSavageFan]

Formal impeachment inquiry has begun.

Good luck with that.

https://miro.medium.com/max/960/1*CO...WoaVH5Vvfg.gif

[Orange Joe]

He is not a carbon copy of Obama, so no. Obama was also not subjected to the same amount of media destruction Trump has had to face. It doesn't matter however. Most people care about having a job and providing for their families. If enough feel like they are doing that during a election, then the sitting President has a better chance of staying in office.

Yes he was.



https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/stat...28314257350657

[omerome]

Yes he was.



https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/stat...28314257350657

That's perfect. It's like these folks have selective amnesia. Or just are bad faith actors.

[Belize]

That's perfect. It's like these folks have selective amnesia. Or just are bad faith actors.

Absolutely the latter.

[Thepersona]

Emerson is currently an outlier and is dragging his approval up... His trendline hasn't been all that great.

Polls are also about 2 week lagging indicators of current events. How much will his polling drop when the Ukraine stuff gets factored in?

They will tank his approval rating. Again
Remember, all of this is with a pretty decent Economy, the moment we enter a recession (and i would say that the moment is coming soon) his approval will never be around 40% any more

[Fahrenheit]

Even focuses on his approval ratings which as essentially been locked in the 40-45% range for the entirety of his Presidency, his disapproval has been locked in the 50-55% range too, those people aren't coming back into the GOP fold, and they're motivated as hell. 2017 and 2018 were indications of what's going on, the GOP is bleeding the white, suburban, middle class, soccer mom types in droves and losing college educated more and more. The GOP already had an issue with practically every single minority voting bloc in the country and Trump sure as shit didn't help the situation.

[Nurasu]

Approval ratings are a useless measure in such a partisan political climate, regardless of side. Presidents used to have 80%+ ratings; we'll never see that again in our lifetimes.

[zenkai]

Even focuses on his approval ratings which as essentially been locked in the 40-45% range for the entirety of his Presidency, his disapproval has been locked in the 50-55% range too, those people aren't coming back into the GOP fold, and they're motivated as hell. 2017 and 2018 were indications of what's going on, the GOP is bleeding the white, suburban, middle class, soccer mom types in droves and losing college educated more and more. The GOP already had an issue with practically every single minority voting bloc in the country and Trump sure as shit didn't help the situation.

That's how approval ratings work...

[Fahrenheit]

That's how approval ratings work...

Yeah, there is virtually no middle ground fence sitting with Trump. The 'nays' have it, by quite a bit, and they're motivated.

[zenkai]

Approval ratings are a useless measure in such a partisan political climate, regardless of side. Presidents used to have 80%+ ratings; we'll never see that again in our lifetimes.

Yeah, I think the last time I saw a high approval rating that high was after 9/11

[Breccia]

So more bad news for Trump. Seems to be a lot of that going around.

1) Trump is looking to cut back on UN funding, which would immediately make China number 1 in total funding, and also, in troops provided for peacekeeping. Considering China is looking to get UN support for their multi continent Silk Road, this advance in world leadership will only improve their ability to work trade deals.

2) The Kaiser Family Foundation releases yet another report showing health care costs are continuing to rise, despite Trump's moves on the ACA. Work-provided plans are getting more expensive and also less effective, in part by the partial breakdown Trump unilaterally imposed.

[Benggaul]

Can't. Stop. Laughing. Most inept administration in recent memory.
https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/11...727908866?s=20

[NoiseTank13]

Most inept or do we have another Deep Throat in the making?

[Kujako]

Most inept or do we have another Deep Throat in the making?

More of a Just the Tip.

[Zan15]

So more bad news for Trump. Seems to be a lot of that going around.

2) The Kaiser Family Foundation releases yet another report showing health care costs are continuing to rise, despite Trump's moves on the ACA. Work-provided plans are getting more expensive and also less effective, in part by the partial breakdown Trump unilaterally imposed.

Annual premiums for employer sponsored family health coverage reached $20,576 this year, up 5% from last year, with workers on average paying $6,015 toward the cost of their coverage.

But but how would they pay for Medicare for all???

That's 900 billion dollars paid for by workers for health insurance.

That's 2-2.5 trillion paid for by corporations.

On top of 800 billion collected for Medicare.

600 billion on all the Medicaid programs

200 billion for the VA.

On top of the deductible and copays people pay each year in addition to their premiums.

Naaaah, there is noooooo way to pay for it....nope... /S