[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[dribbles]

The DUP won't back this deal.

It's DoA in the Commons, expect the Benn act to kick in.

The Surrender/Benn Act doesn't apply to the EU though and they have said...

Jean-Claude Juncker says the EU will NOT offer a Brexit delay beyond Halloween if MPs reject Boris Johnson's new deal that ditches the hated Irish backstop.

So the remainer majority in parliament are really going to vote this deal down in favour of no deal? Warms the cockles of me heart it does, roll on Saturday.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...l-customs.html

It's checkmate I'm telling ya...

[Northern Goblin]

Pity it's not Juncker's position to grant or refuse extensions really then, isn't it?

[Pann]

Also, he will grant an extension after they vote for a second referendum on Saturday

'Hearing People's Vote campaigners might not push for a second ref vote this weekend, they may just put efforts into defeating the Johnson deal'

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...41118913044480

Even if they do try to tack on a ref. it is far from certain that it would pass in the HoC.

[Gorsameth]

It's legendarily awful, still the level of weapons-grade nonsense he's spouting seems too high even for Britain. I wonder if there's some equivalent of Breitbart in the UK.

Well his last post has answered the question. It comes from the daily mail

[Pann]

Pity it's not Juncker's position to grant or refuse extensions really then, isn't it?

I would not discount the impact Juncker's words might have on those MPs who are fearful of a no-deal Brexit.

[Dizzeeyooo]

I would not discount the impact Juncker's words might have on those MPs who are fearful of a no-deal Brexit.

Junker's words (as reported by the BBC's speed over quality reporters) and Junker's words (what he actually said) are two different things, fortunately.

[dribbles]

Pity it's not Juncker's position to grant or refuse extensions really then, isn't it?

Sure, start at the top and work your way down. Boris will be quite busy right now suppported by Juncker lobbying the EU27 leaders.

https://twitter.com/BrugesGroup/stat...95104609030150

After the highly respected President Juncker countenances no extension and it's this deal or no deal, not one of the 27 will come out publicly before Saturday and say they will veto an extension request? Macron doesn't appear to need any excuse, I'd bet on him for one.

[kaid]

Also, he will grant an extension after they vote for a second referendum on Saturday

Honestly it makes a lot of sense to do a second referendum. This is the options the new deal, no deal or remain. Now the options can be clearly laid out and so everybody knows exactly what they are voting for not some random fantasy brexit.

[Temp name]

There is nothing simple about a three way referendum and nothing easy about eliminating any of those three options.

It'd be fairly simple if they used a decent voting system instead of first past the post though, but that's an entirely different subject

[Jessicka]

There is nothing simple about a three way referendum and nothing easy about eliminating any of those three options.

The options are this deal or remain. No deal was never countenanced in the original referendum, even by Farage's lunatics.

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It'd be fairly simple if they used a decent voting system instead of first past the post though, but that's an entirely different subject

The referendum has nothing to do with FPTP.

[Jessicka]

Polls show No Deal higher than leaving with a deal, don't they?

In polls where the options are between Remain, No Deal and A Deal. Because half the voters pick remain, and the leave voters are split.

I mean, if you want to make the referendum that, then go for it, it'd be bullshit but it'd guarantee remain wins and I'm happy with that.

[Dhrizzle]

Verbally inside the UK customs area, but applying EU tariffs and VAT on all goods "at risk of entering the single market" - so basically everything, plus level playing field alignment between EU and NI, regardless if rest of UK diverges.

"No British Government could or should sign up to something like this" - if you agreed with Johnson then, god knows why you agree with him now.

Because Dribbles is the world champion at shifting goalposts. No deal is the best thing ever, a terrible deal is even better and a worst deal is even bettererest.

[Jessicka]

Because Dribbles is the world champion at shifting goalposts. No deal is the best thing ever, a terrible deal is even better and a worst deal is even bettererest.

You have that confused. No deal is best, Boris's shambles of a deal is next best, and May's deal which while objectively better than Boris's, is next, and the worst of all worlds is clearly to remain.

In his ideal world, the result of negotiations with the EU post no-deal would result in a deal worse than a WTO agreement.

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Personally I don't want to make the referendum anything given that it's not really my business. I am just saying that discounting No Deal while moving for a referendum is not an easy option. You could just as well say that there should be a referendum between this deal and no deal so that the first referendum is respected and we just take the results of the negotiations to the people. Heck if I was Johnson and was expecting a motion for a people's vote, I'd consider preempting them by offering such a referendum.

No deal isn't really a thing anyway, because ultimately, a deal has to be agreed post-leaving. Boris's and May's deals are both interim agreements, one of which we'd pick up on November 1st if no deal were to happen, because that's what we'd be given.

It is fair to rule it out in that respect, because it's not something that could ever really happen, and going in-perpetuity into no-deal territory would just be invoking a purely vindictive policy which has no right to exist.

[Dhrizzle]

There is nothing simple about a three way referendum and nothing easy about eliminating any of those three options.

Of course it's simple, people rank their favourite and second favourite choices. If no single result gets more than 50% of the vote the lowest scorer is eliminated and whoever chose them has their second choice counted.

So let's say the referendum first round result looks like this -
Remain - 43%
Deal - 32%
No Deal - 25%

No-one gets more than 50%, No Deal comes last so it's taken off the table. People who had No Deal as their first choice have their second choice counted. Round 2 looks like this -
Deal - 52%
Remain - 48%

The Deal gets more than 50% of the vote and wins the referendum.

If the electorate can't understand something as simple as a first and second choice then we should just pack in the whole democracy idea and hand power back to the Queen.

[Dhrizzle]

You have that confused. No deal is best, Boris's shambles of a deal is next best, and May's deal which while objectively better than Boris's, is next, and the worst of all worlds is clearly to remain.

In his ideal world, the result of negotiations with the EU post no-deal would result in a deal worse than a WTO agreement.

Anything that allows millionaires to avoid paying taxes and ensures the politicians selling us out get nice fat consultancies and dinner speech fees from the corporations that get to pick over the carcass.

[dribbles]

Of course it's simple, people rank their favourite and second favourite choices. If no single result gets more than 50% of the vote the lowest scorer is eliminated and whoever chose them has their second choice counted.

So let's say the referendum first round result looks like this -
Remain - 43%
Deal - 32%
No Deal - 25%

No-one gets more than 50%, No Deal comes last so it's taken off the table. People who had No Deal as their first choice have their second choice counted. Round 2 looks like this -
Deal - 52%
Remain - 48%

The Deal gets more than 50% of the vote and wins the referendum.

If the electorate can't understand something as simple as a first and second choice then we should just pack in the whole democracy idea and hand power back to the Queen.

Wishful thinking much? No deal wouldn't come last but in fact be the most popular option.

[Crispin]

You’re ignoring the 12% dont know and 18% hold 2nd referendum, these are marginal voters and unknown, thats 30% you cannot place.

That’s only 34% for a no deal brexit. Dont know and new referendum wont be on the ticket, your ignorance is showing

[Dhrizzle]

Wishful thinking much? No deal wouldn't come last but in fact be the most popular option.

Really - how would the people who prefer renegotiation vote if that isn't an option, ditto with the second referendum people as we are talking about the second referendum happening? Also would none of the No Deal people switch to Boris's deal as you're crowing about how magnificent it is?

[Mayhem]

Wishful thinking much? No deal wouldn't come last but in fact be the most popular option.

That picture is just a perfect example of how fucked up everything is.

The answers apart from the first, fifth and sixth aren't even workable.

[AeneasBK]

I really haven't been paying attention for months (ever?) so correct me here if I'm wrong but was Theresa Mays deal accepted by the EU but didn't get through parliament or was it rejected by the EU. I had thought it was the latter, in which case why on earth is it even on polls anyway. TBF if it was the former, why on earth is it on polls anyway?

Why are we looking at polls that started back in July anyway? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.