[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[dribbles]

Until the Letwin amendment passes tomorrow, which it should easily as Labour are apparently supporting it.

Letwin passing and the EU willing to offer an extension. Neither are a given.

We certainly don't know yet how a chunk of Labour MP's, who are breaking the whip to back Boris, are going to vote on Letwin. But yeah you have a point it could be tricky.

[Jessicka]

Which is? Right... to make it easier. And what is Brexit decidedly not? Go on... tell me, what is Brexit for the European continent right now? That's right, a big fat pain in the ass. And what would an extension do? Exactly, prolong the major pain in the ass for even longer. We've extended the self-torture for one year... please tell me, since you obviously don't have an idea just how low EU confidence in the UK getting their shit together is, how long would you like this shitshow to continue? Because if you get this extension, I have a twenty Euro bill saying it ain't over after that extension is wasted in the UK's House of Commons...

Any extension is only going to eat into transitional agreement time. Which is in turn indefinite anyway once we’re into that.

Functionally it makes no difference whether an extension or agreement is settled. Either are just buying both sides time. Hell, maybe at the end of 2020 the EU27 will be in a position to tell us to fuck off. Until then, we both know you’re not.

[dribbles]

Any extension is only going to eat into transitional agreement time. Which is in turn indefinite anyway once we’re into that.

Functionally it makes no difference whether an extension or agreement is settled. Either are just buying both sides time. Hell, maybe at the end of 2020 the EU27 will be in a position to tell us to fuck off. Until then, we both know you’re not.

It is not indefinite, the transition expires at the end of next year when if an extension is not requested by the UK we crash, oops, clean brexit on WTO terms then.

Don't forget by then a GE will have been held and all the remainer MP's, with Boris strengthened, cleansed from parliament.

The remainer games you are seeing now to stymie brexit will not be possible 12 months from now.

[Dizzeeyooo]

It is not indefinite, the transition expires at the end of next year when if an extension is not requested by the UK we crash, oops, clean brexit on WTO terms then.

Don't forget by then a GE will have been held and all the remainer MP's, with Boris strengthened, cleansed from parliament.

Labour MPs who have this explained to them but are dumb enough to vote for the deal anyway really should be kicked out of the party.

[Thrundi]

Hell, maybe at the end of 2020 the EU27 will be in a position to tell us to fuck off. Until then, we both know you’re not.

How so ?
Still haven't explained how an extension would benefit the EU.

[Huehuecoyotl]

How so ?
Still haven't explained how an extension would benefit the EU.

The EU will be damaged by no-deal. Not as badly as the UK, but badly enough. They don't want that. But more importantly to the EU, they will have given the appearance of forcing the issue; the subsequent damage to both sides, it could be argued, was "their fault". All along they have bent over backwards to make sure that it's the UK taking the steps, with zero coercion. Another extension would ensure they can maintain that position.

So that's two benefits.

[Forogil]

The EU will be damaged by no-deal. Not as badly as the UK, but badly enough. They don't want that. But more importantly to the EU, they will have given the appearance of forcing the issue; the subsequent damage to both sides, it could be argued, was "their fault". All along they have bent over backwards to make sure that it's the UK taking the steps, with zero coercion. Another extension would ensure they can maintain that position.

I would say that it depends on what the extension is for.

If the extension is for a confirmatory referendum on the current deal (with the options: stay or take this deal) then it would be very odd to deny the UK that time. But the EU leaders see no benefit of stating that in advance.

But if there is no clear purpose for the extension it becomes less likely.

[Thrundi]

The EU will be damaged by no-deal. Not as badly as the UK, but badly enough. They don't want that. But more importantly to the EU, they will have given the appearance of forcing the issue; the subsequent damage to both sides, it could be argued, was "their fault". All along they have bent over backwards to make sure that it's the UK taking the steps, with zero coercion. Another extension would ensure they can maintain that position.

So that's two benefits.

The EU will be damaged by a no deal after an extension too. Even more so, because more incertainty until then.

The appearing as the villain holds a bit. I buy it, actually I'm somewhat hoping the EU gives a 5 years extension so the brexit dies of old age.
But there still need to be some believable proofs that it would bring more than a no deal down the road.

I'd say that's half a benefit.
Because no matter what, the EU will be blamed by a non negligible amount of people, both in and outside of the UK.

An extension, in itself, doesn't bring the EU anything. I'd say those who want to think the EU is evil already do so and won't ever change their mind. Most of the others, by now, either have understood that the UK is creating this mess, or don't have enough brain to matter.
An extension asked for really good reasons this time (ie referendum, revoke ...), sure. A real chance that no brexit would happen (either not at all or still better cooperation than what we're aiming at), that may deserve some short term uncertainty and harm endured. But there are no reasons apart from wishful thinking, to believe that it is the case. Ofc I may be mistaken. I hope I am. But it would seem the political field in the UK is still not thinking about the EU (including UK) people. Only their own private game of thrones. Only with less sex scenes. But considering the cast, it's for the besT.

[Slant]

The EU will be damaged by no-deal. Not as badly as the UK, but badly enough. They don't want that. But more importantly to the EU, they will have given the appearance of forcing the issue; the subsequent damage to both sides, it could be argued, was "their fault". All along they have bent over backwards to make sure that it's the UK taking the steps, with zero coercion. Another extension would ensure they can maintain that position.

So that's two benefits.

Valid points. I see the problem that indefinite maintenance of that position is getting the EU nowhere. Every month of this is losing us money. At some point, you look back and wonder why you waited that long. Or, reversely, if you have little hope of the situation changing, and there is barely any hope left, how long would you like to extend before you pull the trigger?

What we don't know is what Macron was told the last time the Council convinced him to not cast his veto. Considering the language of the EU was unanimously "Don't waste this time!" I wonder if concessions were made that it would be the only long extension given. Macron hasn't demanded an end to this for pure EU election gains, Macron has an agenda and a vision for the EU and he wants to get on with it. Brexit is distracting from that big time. If he wants to leave a legacy in what we must assume is a very limited time span, he must act soon. The French are really not that fond of him.

Also... about the blame game: Everyone on this planet is well aware of how patient the EU has been. People from all over the world are wondering why this is still a thing. Nobody would blame the EU for pulling the trigger now. Nobody except the British. And I think it doesn't suit the EU well to be overly concerned with the opinion of what is essentially - for the sake of these proceedings - a third country.

[Mormolyce]

So a letter saying ‘there may be shortages, and please don’t stockpile’ suggests they’ll be fine?

It literally discusses that companies will need to move operations to the EU and that that will take time. Which is exactly what I’ve said.

This takes nothing away from the extension, if asked for, would be granted for the same reasons as the transition period discussed in that very letter to buy that time.

It accepts fully, that without an agreement that there would be issues, and that they’re working with companies where they might be.

Nor does it say the industry is not stockpiling. It’s simply telling individuals not to stockpile to prevent strain.

Your reading comprehension is terrible.

They aren't stockpiling, and they've already set up ways for the UK to continue to supply pharmaceuticals in accordance with EU standards even after Brexit.

Seriously, there's only so much hand-holding I can do, at some point you're going to have to realise that two and two make four.

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If I had known Germans would be wiping bitters tears of impotent rage for three years I think I would have voted for Brexit in the first place.

LOL, yeah sure it's the EU that's impotent here.

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Any extension is only going to eat into transitional agreement time. Which is in turn indefinite anyway once we’re into that.

Functionally it makes no difference whether an extension or agreement is settled. Either are just buying both sides time. Hell, maybe at the end of 2020 the EU27 will be in a position to tell us to fuck off. Until then, we both know you’re not.

Politically speaking, the longer this shitshow goes on the better it is for the EU. A lot of EU countries are getting a real ugly demonstration of what a pig's ear leaving the EU can be. This cavalcade of UK incompetence is the best thing they could hope for.

[Northern Goblin]

Oliver Letwin continues to be a thorn in the side of the ERG and Government front benches.

We may not even have MV4 today and automatically trigger the Benn act if it passes and Johnson takes his ball and goes home in response.

This deal may not get voted on at all if that happens, we could see an extension and a general election.

[Gorsameth]

Oliver Letwin continues to be a thorn in the side of the ERG and Government front benches.

We may not even have MV4 today and automatically trigger the Benn act if it passes and Johnson takes his ball and goes home in response.

This deal may not get voted on at all if that happens, we could see an extension and a general election.

I think its pretty telling of Boris's actual intentions that he doesn't want his deal voted on if an amendment is passed that ensures there is ample time to implement his own deal.

[Northern Goblin]

I think its pretty telling of Boris's actual intentions that he doesn't want his deal voted on if an amendment is passed that ensures there is ample time to implement his own deal.

It pretty much shows his true colours if he doesn't push his deal.

[Slant]

It pretty much shows his true colours if he doesn't push his deal.

If he showed them any more, I'm sure we'd all wish we were colorblind...

[Jessicka]

Nice to see the "impartial" BBC here pushing the "Oh the big bad EU will kick us out anyway" line.

[Northern Goblin]

Nice to see the "impartial" BBC here pushing the "Oh the big bad EU will kick us out anyway" line.

See this is a position that never makes sense, revoking A50 is always an option there, anything afterwards aimed at the UK as a member of the EU is subject to veto, which we have.

For all the speculation and sabre rattling, the worst that could happen is having egg on our faces for the past three years.

[Huehuecoyotl]

The ERG legislated to make a division of the UK down the Irish Sea illegal. The fact that they are now willing to vote through a deal in which that appears to be the central plank says all you need to know about the intent of the Tories behind this "deal".

Anyone stupid enough to take this on face value and vote it through deserves to be run out of politics completely. The only question is whether Boris will use this to force through no-deal now or next year.

I'm struggling to understand how so many supposedly intelligent MPs can't see how transparent this whole charade is.

[Mayhem]

snip

Senpai Slant will not notice you because he can't read your posts, but keep trying.

[Pann]

Letwin passes 322-306 Johnson now must request a three month extension.

[Gorsameth]

A game of music chairs where the music never stops.