The prolonged U.S.–China tariffs are exacerbating the harms to American farmers wrought by both other trade conflicts and the U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Foreign food producers are now likely to benefit at the expense of their U.S. counterparts, who have struggled to shift former Chinese exports to other markets.
After China imposed a retaliatory 25% duty on many U.S. agricultural products in July 2018, those exports fell by 53% for the year. They dropped another 8% by the end of July 2019.
Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Canada, the EU and other agricultural producers have all seen their exports to China grow while those of the U.S. have declined.
Brazil's share of China's $38 billion soy import market shot up to 76% in 2o18, while the U.S.' fell from 35% to 19%. Brazil has also taken up 15% of the $2 billion pork market, as the U.S. has dropped from 15% to 6%.
Ukraine has capitalized on the trade war to increase its share of China’s $790 million corn market from 61% to 81% through 2018. The U.S. share is down to 9%, from 17%.
Canada, Kazakhstan and Russia gained on China's $780 million in wheat imports at the expense of the U.S., whose market share fell from 38% to 14%.