Turkish troops launch offensive into northern Syria, says Erdogan

[Blade Wolf]

What is the reason trump would pull the troops from Syria so suddenly besides the conspiracy theory of "Trump tower in turkey". He gave a flimsy reason of "we need to bring our troops home cause it's so sad when I see dead soldiers come home" when he sent 1500+ soldiers to Afghan practically the next day. I just don't get it. If we kept troops there Turkey would just be sitting there. Why didnt he do a process over the course of months and at least leave them prepared with some leverage. How did his cabinet/advisors not stop him?

Trump is way too emotional and impulsive.

Is it a conspiracy to say he's got business deals in Turkey and that influences his decisions? Same with Saudi, his personal business deals there controls his political decisions.

[Kuntantee]

There are, hmm, i guess you could call it "rumours" in media that Russian troops could be replacing removed American ones (like in Manbij). No official MoD or MoFA statements as far as i see (except one where they deny they agreed on Turkey going up to Kobani).

Russian stance had always been "Entirety of Syria belongs to Syrian government, everyone else who is there illegally must leave", obviously including East of Euphrates.

The only things stopping that were Americans. Now that they are leaving and you're putting pressure on Kurds to cooperate with SAA (given that they have no other remaining options) those parts can be reclaimed.

Turkey will leave, the question is wether PKK is staying or not. What's Russian stance on that?

[Thekri]

What is the reason trump would pull the troops from Syria so suddenly besides the conspiracy theory of "Trump tower in turkey". He gave a flimsy reason of "we need to bring our troops home cause it's so sad when I see dead soldiers come home" when he sent 1500+ soldiers to Afghan practically the next day. I just don't get it. If we kept troops there Turkey would just be sitting there. Why didnt he do a process over the course of months and at least leave them prepared with some leverage. How did his cabinet/advisors not stop him?

Trump is way too emotional and impulsive.

Well that is the million dollar question right now, and the answer is that we just don't know. The Trump towers thing isn't really a reason. It could be leverage that Erdogan could use against Trump, but there is no evidence that actually happened (Overtly at least), and it still isn't a reason, just an incentive.

Honestly most of the reasons that have been proposed border on conspiracy theory, just because the action itself was so abrupt and obviously wrong, that the motive seems like it must have been dramatic, but we don't know what it was. I think the most likely is that Erdogan said he was going to come weather the US left or not, and that Trump would look better if he moved out of the way first. We don't know this either, because so far the transcripts of those calls have not been released, so we have nothing to go on.

Anyway, back to the current situation in Syria as tracked by the liveuamap that I linked earlier, which has been extremely accurate early reporting so far:
Over the last 24 hours there has been a very large quantity of Russian Air Strikes reported in Northern Syria, not in the zone affected by the ceasefire (Which Russia/Syrian government isn't a part of anyway) but in the areas immediately to the south. The targets appear to be the Pro-Turkish militant groups that have been active over the last few days in cooperation with the Turkish military efforts. These are the groups that have been reported doing mass rape and executions of Kurds and Pro-Syrian activists.

In combination with that, Erdogan met with Putin today to discuss the situation, and it apparently didn't go well at all. Erdogan released a message stating "If we cannot reach a solution with Putin on the Pro-Assad forces in Northern Syria, we will make our own way" (Google translated and then cleaned up, so not sure on the specifics). Which seems to imply an active escalation in the coming days as Pro-Assad and Russian forces come into direct conflict with Turkish Forces.

The active targeting of Pro-Turkish militias seems to be a clear statement of Russian support for the beleaguered Kurds, and should cement their new alliance with Russia and the Pro-Assad forces. As upset as I am to see Russia stepping into a vacuum that the US left, this is still a very good thing in my opinion, as Russia seems to be willing to step in to prevent further slaughter of the Kurds, and I am grateful to anyone that stops that. On the other hand, this will make politics incredibly complicated in the coming weeks and months, as right now Russia's foreign policy is much more in line with Europe then America's is. This is a golden opportunity for Russia to isolate both Turkey and the US from the rest of NATO, while Russian military forces actively engage a NATO military without significant fear of retribution from the other members. It gives Russia the moral upper hand (They clearly do here, I can't even deny it) of stepping in to prevent an ethnic cleansing the US seems to have endorsed.

I don't know if Russia engineered this or not (I suspect they didn't honestly), but they couldn't have asked for a better opportunity to capitalize on and weaken NATO.

[Gaidax]

What is the reason trump would pull the troops from Syria so suddenly besides the conspiracy theory of "Trump tower in turkey". He gave a flimsy reason of "we need to bring our troops home cause it's so sad when I see dead soldiers come home" when he sent 1500+ soldiers to Afghan practically the next day. I just don't get it. If we kept troops there Turkey would just be sitting there. Why didnt he do a process over the course of months and at least leave them prepared with some leverage. How did his cabinet/advisors not stop him?

Trump is way too emotional and impulsive.

Frankly, it is people like you who are way too emotional and impulsive.

Given a bit of straight and honest thought, it is easy to see that Syria is out of US hands and US troops presence there is pointless, where as Afghanistan is still relevant for the US.

I mean, it's not rocket science really. People need to get over themselves a bit.

[GreenJesus]

Frankly, it is people like you who are way too emotional and impulsive.

Given a bit of straight and honest thought, it is easy to see that Syria is out of US hands and US troops presence there is pointless, where as Afghanistan is still relevant for the US.

I mean, it's not rocket science really. People need to get over themselves a bit.

Your right that US didnt really have business going there in the first place, but leaving so abruptly is even worse. It just wasnt executed effectively at all. Maybe there is some top secret information the public just doesnt have and it gives trump a good reason, but I still dont know what that could be.

[Gaidax]

Your right that US didnt really have business going there in the first place, but leaving so abruptly is even worse. It just wasnt executed effectively at all. Maybe there is some top secret information the public just doesnt have and it gives trump a good reason, but I still dont know what that could be.

Ultimately it does not matter, because this would have happened anyway. As to other part of what you said, I simply don't know, but I think it's fair to give a benefit of the doubt here.

For example one positive thing about this abruptness is that it did not give Kurds enough time to actually mount significant armed resistance, which in turn might have actually saved lives and this might have been a consideration in the decision.

Or not. Either way, US would go away anyway and Assad/Erdogan would swoop in anyway, so I see all this as a useless exercise in grinding water here. The thing was inevitable.

[Skulltaker]

Well that is the million dollar question right now, and the answer is that we just don't know. The Trump towers thing isn't really a reason. It could be leverage that Erdogan could use against Trump, but there is no evidence that actually happened (Overtly at least), and it still isn't a reason, just an incentive.

Honestly most of the reasons that have been proposed border on conspiracy theory, just because the action itself was so abrupt and obviously wrong, that the motive seems like it must have been dramatic, but we don't know what it was. I think the most likely is that Erdogan said he was going to come weather the US left or not, and that Trump would look better if he moved out of the way first. We don't know this either, because so far the transcripts of those calls have not been released, so we have nothing to go on.

Anyway, back to the current situation in Syria as tracked by the liveuamap that I linked earlier, which has been extremely accurate early reporting so far:
Over the last 24 hours there has been a very large quantity of Russian Air Strikes reported in Northern Syria, not in the zone affected by the ceasefire (Which Russia/Syrian government isn't a part of anyway) but in the areas immediately to the south. The targets appear to be the Pro-Turkish militant groups that have been active over the last few days in cooperation with the Turkish military efforts. These are the groups that have been reported doing mass rape and executions of Kurds and Pro-Syrian activists.

In combination with that, Erdogan met with Putin today to discuss the situation, and it apparently didn't go well at all. Erdogan released a message stating "If we cannot reach a solution with Putin on the Pro-Assad forces in Northern Syria, we will make our own way" (Google translated and then cleaned up, so not sure on the specifics). Which seems to imply an active escalation in the coming days as Pro-Assad and Russian forces come into direct conflict with Turkish Forces.

The active targeting of Pro-Turkish militias seems to be a clear statement of Russian support for the beleaguered Kurds, and should cement their new alliance with Russia and the Pro-Assad forces. As upset as I am to see Russia stepping into a vacuum that the US left, this is still a very good thing in my opinion, as Russia seems to be willing to step in to prevent further slaughter of the Kurds, and I am grateful to anyone that stops that. On the other hand, this will make politics incredibly complicated in the coming weeks and months, as right now Russia's foreign policy is much more in line with Europe then America's is. This is a golden opportunity for Russia to isolate both Turkey and the US from the rest of NATO, while Russian military forces actively engage a NATO military without significant fear of retribution from the other members. It gives Russia the moral upper hand (They clearly do here, I can't even deny it) of stepping in to prevent an ethnic cleansing the US seems to have endorsed.

I don't know if Russia engineered this or not (I suspect they didn't honestly), but they couldn't have asked for a better opportunity to capitalize on and weaken NATO.

As for the motive:

I am rather sure the Dumpster is not as dumb as people think he is. Still way below average, but not mentally retarded levels of stupid. I assume he had a moment of clairvoyance and realized that he's probably not getting a second term, and now tries to secure as many connections as possible. In the buisness world that's called a golden parachute. Another Trump Tower and favorable connections to Turkey sure won't hurt his portfolio once he's booted out of office.

As for Russia and their position:

Russia doesn't need to engineer anything in the region. They are already holding almost all the cards. The US retreating now is just a player with a relatively weak hand folding instead of rasing the stakes. I am not callingthe US weak, but their hold in the region is feeble. I'd also like to add: I despise Putin, but I also respect him. While he's a monster, he also might be the most competent leader the world has right now. That in itself is a scary thought, of course, but while his methods are questionable at best you're hard pressed to find a statesman (or woman) of equal caliber these days.

Turkey under Erdogan suffers, as my history teacher put it, under a post-imperial inferiority complex. They are one of the few 'WW1 superpowers' to come out of the 20th century in a weakened position. England and France might have lost their colonies, but remain important players, internationally. Germany managed to lose 2 World Wars but is among, if not THE leading nation, in the EU. What does Turkey have? They have had nothing but losses for over 100 years. Erdogan cannot cope with the fact that the once great Ottoman Empire is now reduced to hold and shake americas cock after they take a piss. Turkey, currently, is the means for the US (or NATO, but where is the difference), to project power near the Bosporus. And that is it. (They have nice vacation spots, aswell.) Now he wants to show everyone who matters (which, for him, is mostly his own people) that he can 'make Turkey great again'. For his target he pickes the weakest one possible. He knows perfectly well if he were to aggrevate anybody else at his border, especially Syria directly, Russia would bitchslap him back to the Stone Age. (Or rather back into his borders. Russia isn't dumb enough to attack a NATO member on their sovereign territory.)

Russia is going to play the safe hand. They will butcher anyone who goes to far, as you pointed out, those are the pro-Turkish militias. It would take more for them to actually attack members of the Turkis military, but they are making a clear statement: You may proceed, but only as far as we see fit. Irregulars usually feature the most zealous fighters, and they are also the most expandable. I'm sure Turkey is fine with them taking the shelling from Russia. Putin will make the most out of this situation, and he doesn't even have to risk anything. He can bomb the cannon fodder with no threat to his airforce and let Erdogan create his 'puffer zone'. I'm sure Assad is on board as well, and will benefit greatly from deals made with both Turkey and Russia. He entered the whole mess with one ally - Russia - and can emerge with two, adding Turkey, for the small concession of lettin Erdogan butcher a few thousand Kurds. It's despicable, of course, but sadly, that's human nature.

Only thing that might throw it all to heck is if trump does a 180 and decides to land troops, which isn't going to happen, or if Turkey army massively screws up and attacks Russian or Syrian forces, which is unlikely aswell. In the end, thousands of Kurds will die, Turkey will get its safe space, the Kurds will get a greatly diminished territory, Assad gains a new ally, and Russia gains an even greater foothold near the medditeranean. The USs reputaion is tarnished greatly, and Trump makes a few million bucks.

[Gaidax]

I am rather sure the Dumpster is not as dumb as people think he is. Still way below average, but not mentally retarded levels of stupid. I assume he had a moment of clairvoyance and realized that he's probably not getting a second term

This exact kind of thinking is part of how he ended up in White House.

I suggest people wake up from their hallucinations and start taking things more seriously if you hope to actually win 2020. His chances to get re-elected are, in fact, pretty decent.

[Skulltaker]

This exact kind of thinking is part of how he ended up in White House.

I suggest people wake up from their hallucinations and start taking things more seriously if you hope to actually win 2020. His chances to get re-elected are, in fact, pretty decent.

I'm from Germany, pal, so I doubt it's 'you people'. I've also said time and time again the main reason the Democrats lost 2016 wasn't Russia, or Trump, but their ineptitude to find a candidate slightly more charismatic than Trump. They pushed their golden girl over what the people wanted, and deluded themselves that 'noone would be as stupid to vote for the populist over the 'smart choice'. They displayed a problem that is prominent throughout all of western politics, a complete seperation of politicians and the people. The media didn't help, because a good chunk of them are part of the problem. This is what happens if you surround yourself with people that constantly pat each other on the back and use skewered statistics to convince themselves they are doing a good job. It's just as prominent in german politics, btw.

That doesn't change the fact that Donald J. Trump isn't a smart person. Not by a long shot. But it IS wrong to underestimate a crazy/stupid/zealous person just because you're smarter than him. Stupid/crazy/zealous persons have had by far the biggest impact on human history ever, since the classic age. Ancient Rome was probably the last time smart (and ambitios) actually shaped the world.

Look at what happened to the islamic world. 700 to 1200 AD they used to have the bright center of humanity. Freaking Baghdad was the most progressive city in the world. Open discourse, critical thinking, mankind hasn't seen such a leap forward ever since. And then the mongols came, sacked the place, and some asshole pinned the destruction on 'faithless', wrote up rules how a good muslim has to behave, decided that 'he who works with numbers is a servant of the devil', and bam, an enlightened people are turned into savages that supress women for being inferior, butcher each other becasue they belong to different interpretaions of their fate (not even speaking about what they do to 'infidels') and cling to ancient texts as law 800 years later. Zelaots are responsible for the Dark Ages. Crazy people brought us the Holocaust. Or communism. Take your pick. The smart people either goose-stepped along or were lined up and shot.

[Shalcker]

As for the motive:

I am rather sure the Dumpster is not as dumb as people think he is. Still way below average, but not mentally retarded levels of stupid. I assume he had a moment of clairvoyance and realized that he's probably not getting a second term, and now tries to secure as many connections as possible. In the buisness world that's called a golden parachute. Another Trump Tower and favorable connections to Turkey sure won't hurt his portfolio once he's booted out of office.

In fact, if Trump is consistent anywhere, it's his opinion on foreign policy.

“Let Syria and Assad protect the Kurds,” he wrote on Twitter. “Anyone who wants to assist Syria in protecting the Kurds is good with me, whether it is Russia, China or Napoleon Bonaparte. I hope they all do great, we are 7000 miles away!”

Look at this Syrian situation from his perspective... if he would be defending Kurds there, he would be essentially defending Assad's territory from Turkey. Assad who clearly isn't going to pay him for defending Syria - and neither will Kurds.

Which is why troops were moved to Saudi Arabia instead - because they do pay for their protection.

[Easo]

Crushing heads? Similar words are usually used by all the hardliners from autocractic/dictatorial 3rd world countries. Guess which way the Turkey is sliding...

Trump is way too emotional and impulsive.

He is - because he makes everything about him. Basically, someone with a very weak ego. Everything is perceived as a direct insult or an attempt to doubt his skills and so he lashes out without thinking about long term effects.

[Breccia]

Erdoğan got the best of Trump, experts warn

A cease fire deal being hailed as a victory by Trump and Vice President Pence gave Erdoğan something he’s wanted for years — a zone in Syria that Turkey will have control over, essentially extending the Turkish border 20 miles south.

“I don’t understand what the Turks gave up, and I don’t think they gave up anything,” said Eric Edelman, former U.S. ambassador to Turkey under the George W. Bush administration.

A senior adviser to Erdoğan told NPR the letter was “absolutely irrelevant.” Former Turkish ambassador to the U.S. Namik Tan on Friday tweeted a New Yorker cartoon mocking Trump’s letter to Erdoğan with a similar letter to Santa Claus.

Oh, and since it seems to be on-topic and politically relevant:

Erdoğan himself was more serious, saying Friday that the letter violated “political and diplomatic courtesy” and ominously warning that “when the time comes, we would like it to be known that we will take the necessary steps” to respond.

Bulent Aliriza, director of the Turkey Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Trump lost his leverage to negotiate with both the Turks and the Kurds after the withdrawal and then the letter.

“In buttoning your shirt, if you start out wrong, it’ll be wrong at the end,” Aliriza said. “They’re denying it strenuously within the administration, but everything that happened, happened because of the phone call on the 6th.”

On the other side of the Atlantic, European Union Council President Donald Tusk said the agreement is “not a cease-fire.”

“The so-called cease-fire is not what we expected. In fact, it’s not a cease-fire, it’s a demand of capitulation of the Kurds,” he said.

According to a fact sheet given to reporters in Ankara, the so-called “safe zone” from which the YPG is expected to evacuate will be “primarily enforced” by Turkish forces. Defense Secretary Mark Esper confirmed to reporters Friday that U.S. forces would not be involved in enforcing the safe zone.

That means, critics say, Erdoğan won what he wanted all along.

“The Turks themselves are saying they got what they wanted," Aliriza said.

The rest of the article contains quotes we've already heard, mostly from GOP lawmakers, in various versions of "what the fuck?"

[Crispin]

I'm from Germany, pal, so I doubt it's 'you people'. I've also said time and time again the main reason the Democrats lost 2016 wasn't Russia, or Trump, but their ineptitude to find a candidate slightly more charismatic than Trump. They pushed their golden girl over what the people wanted, and deluded themselves that 'noone would be as stupid to vote for the populist over the 'smart choice'. They displayed a problem that is prominent throughout all of western politics, a complete seperation of politicians and the people. The media didn't help, because a good chunk of them are part of the problem. This is what happens if you surround yourself with people that constantly pat each other on the back and use skewered statistics to convince themselves they are doing a good job. It's just as prominent in german politics, btw.

That doesn't change the fact that Donald J. Trump isn't a smart person. Not by a long shot. But it IS wrong to underestimate a crazy/stupid/zealous person just because you're smarter than him. Stupid/crazy/zealous persons have had by far the biggest impact on human history ever, since the classic age. Ancient Rome was probably the last time smart (and ambitios) actually shaped the world.

Look at what happened to the islamic world. 700 to 1200 AD they used to have the bright center of humanity. Freaking Baghdad was the most progressive city in the world. Open discourse, critical thinking, mankind hasn't seen such a leap forward ever since. And then the mongols came, sacked the place, and some asshole pinned the destruction on 'faithless', wrote up rules how a good muslim has to behave, decided that 'he who works with numbers is a servant of the devil', and bam, an enlightened people are turned into savages that supress women for being inferior, butcher each other becasue they belong to different interpretaions of their fate (not even speaking about what they do to 'infidels') and cling to ancient texts as law 800 years later. Zelaots are responsible for the Dark Ages. Crazy people brought us the Holocaust. Or communism. Take your pick. The smart people either goose-stepped along or were lined up and shot.

Couldnt agree more, the american presidency is lost, not won. Hillary would have lost against any republican candidate.

And it’s hilsrious to see how the “ceasefire” is really just a quick-win for Turkey. I’m sure that was a hard one to sell to Turkey.

[Fuiking]

pretty sure, if I read between the lines, America's sudden withdrawal was done for Pete Hoekstra to blame the netherlands for basically everything.

[Breccia]

So remember how some of us said things like "LOL 4D chess, Trump can barely play checkers?" Good times...good times...

Unfortunately, our enemies and our adversaries — like Iran, Russia, Turkey — they're playing chess and unfortunately, this administration is playing checkers

Oh hey, look, it's GOP Rep. Hurd, suddenly emboldened because...um...

Will Hurd won't seek re-election

Oh, right, because that.

Appearing on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday, Hurd said Trump’s decision to pull troops from northern Syria, as well as an ensuing cease-fire arrangement with Turkey, “looks more like terms of surrender than a peace deal.”

"ISIS is going to come back," he said. "We know that there is about 30,000 ISIS fighters that are throughout that region."

"It's always easier to compel an administration to stop doing something than it is to begin something," Hurd said. "I think what we could be doing now is bringing in some of the heads of the military, the heads of the intelligence service, the heads of our humanitarian organizations to talk about what are we going to do to prevent ISIS from becoming resurgent.”

The things we nameless posters are saying are now becoming what actual GOP lawmakers say on live TV.

- - - Updated - - -

The NYTimes reports that Trump is considering leaving a few hundred troops in Syria to protect the peace.

"Wait, doesn't that mean this whole thing will be for nothing?"

Yes. Yes it would.

[Shalcker]

The things we nameless posters are saying are now becoming what actual GOP lawmakers say on live TV.

30000 ISIS is going to make a come back... against how big Assad's and Iranian army?

Your scaremongering in media is laughable. ISIS is done; and if it ever tries to rise their heads again outside of Turkish and US protected areas, it'll be smacked down hard.

[Breccia]

Your scaremongering in media is laughable.

I think you meant to say "the Pentagon released a report that ISIS could make a comeback in 6-12 months without constant US pressure".

Last I checked, the Pentagon was not the media. And that report was dated a year ago.

Or perhaps you were talking about this?

Despite the liberation of ISIS-held territory in Iraq and Syria, ISIS remains a significant terrorist threat and collective action is imperative to address this shared international security challenge.

That's a Syrian embassy/State Dept statement from February. Last I checked, the State Department wasn't the media, either.

Or perhaps you missed when Sen. Lindsey Graham said "ISIS is going to re-emerge, it will be on President Trump's watch". Wanna see the video? Sen. Graham is not part of the media, either.

[Shalcker]

I think you meant to say "the Pentagon released a report that ISIS could make a comeback in 6-12 months without constant US pressure".

Last I checked, the Pentagon was not the media. And that report was dated a year ago.

That's "without any pressure". Noone is going to just give up that territory to ISIS - neither Kurds nor Assad - just because US leaves.

And there is still Russia to bomb them as well.

It's pure fantasy.

Or perhaps you missed when Sen. Lindsey Graham said "ISIS is going to re-emerge, it will be on President Trump's watch". Wanna see the video? Sen. Graham is not part of the media, either.

It certainly feels that way though.

Perhaps it is just your media boosting only the ones that help their scaremongering points.

[Breccia]

Noone is going to just give up that territory to ISIS

We did.

End of discussion.

[Shalcker]

We did.

End of discussion.

Haven't you read this thread? Former ISIS guys will be welcomed to Turkish "allies". With US leaving there is noone left to support their resurgence with money and weapons as independent power.

ISIS mattered when it held big cities like Raqqa and Mosul, and had oil sold to Turkey to finance themselves.

At this point noone cares if there will be a few "ISIS" bands "controlling" desert (and promptly getting wiped out if they try to get some town).