The Brexit aftermath thread

[Skroe]

https://twitter.com/BarrySheerman/st...56782775721984

A clear majority of our Shadow cabinet were against a December election yesterday but Jeremy Corbyn has been persuaded to override them after interventions from Seamus Milne & Karie Murphy!

HAHAHA. Seamus Milne. I might have known.......................

[Mayhem]

"When" implies a 100% chance of a Labour loss. In fact the Tories are 2.24 at betfair for a simple majority. We'll ignore the fact that a small majority wouldn't be enough to push Johnson's deal through anyway, and assume that is Skroe's position.

That is still less than 50% probability according to the betting markets, which are much more accurate than the pollsters.

So, observe the hyperbolic bullshit here: Skroe thinks something which is less than 50% chance is a lock.

Now what he should do at this point is apologize and fuck off, but in case he does want to actually bet his stupid proposition I'll give Slant very generous odds of 1.5 on his 100% probability and lay anything up to 100K, assuming that being a yank he can't money down here on betfair. Money would be held in escrow by a trusted non-affiliated third party.

So what is it Skroe: put up or shut up?

Someone can't get Slant out of his head.

Wouldn't it be great if Labour held a position/positions that you could use to explain how Labour will win the coming election instead of referring to nothing but odds of a bookie?

[Pann]

'Creasy amendment allowing the general-election bill to be amended by opposition passes by 312 to 295. Now the mayhem begins'

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1189185254398943234

[Jessicka]

A note on polls right now: Boris has been actively campaigning for this GE since July, he’s obviously had all the headlines, while everything he’s done and said in Parliament, including the Queen’s Speech, was campaign talk; while others have been getting on with their job. They’re not allowed to be campaigning, it’s basically a privilege of his position he’s been able to do it.

That will all change next week when Parliament is dissolved and actual campaigning can legitimately get going for everyone. The Tories being ahead with the head start they’ve had shouldn’t be a surprise. But now they’re going to put the money where their manifesto is should they win: expect the promises in their Queen’s Speech to rapidly evaporate and roll back.

[kaid]

I just checked this: unbelievably Labour were 21% and 24% behead the Tories when Teresa May called the last election. Actual Tory lead at GE: 1%.

I would expect the balance of probabilities to favour the Tories being the largest party as they were last time, but that gives you an indication of how difficult these things are to predict.

Labour are currently about 10% behind on the polling averages: so if the last election repeats itself we'll have a Labour landslide. (That's tongue-in-cheek Mayhem don't get excited).

I think the brexit party is the wild card in general elections. Boris blinked and asked for and got an extension. So I would guess nigel and his band of clowns are going to come out in full force about boris's brexit betrayal and brexit means brexit so vote for the brexit party. There is a solid chance if they go all in on that they could cut the tories wins significantly.

[Jessicka]

I think the brexit party is the wild card in general elections. Boris blinked and asked for and got an extension. So I would guess nigel and his band of clowns are going to come out in full force about boris's brexit betrayal and brexit means brexit so vote for the brexit party. There is a solid chance if they go all in on that they could cut the tories wins significantly.

I'm curious how the Tories would campaign on their deal. BXP seem to hate it, as it splits the Union, and everyone else hates it because it's objectively shit. How are they going to defend that?

[Gorsameth]

I'm curious how the Tories would campaign on their deal. BXP seem to hate it, as it splits the Union, and everyone else hates it because it's objectively shit. How are they going to defend that?

"No backstop, lets get Brexit done"
They will campaign on their deal by not talking about the actual contents of the deal.
That and bet that there are enough people willing to fuck over NI to get Brexit.

[Dizzeeyooo]

Excellent Jess Phillips speech, as usual.

[Crispin]

So I take it you are ignoring the challenge to back up your own bullshit with money? There's a surprise, all hat, no cattle.

What a snivelling, pathetic coward you are....

Must hurt coming from a burner account lol

[gtempest]

Excellent Jess Phillips speech, as usual.

Absolutely, I have alot of respect for her and her views and she is correct.
The scariest thing for me in a general election is if the tories put a promise to innovate the nhs/modernise or any other inprecise alteration that they subsequently use as justification to further privatise. This election is dangerous as it will be voted for on brexit lines and opens a can of worms for additional policy that can and will be overlooked.
If I was boris or one of his britannia unchained cabinet I would absolutely be looking for ways to put cuts on workers rights and nhs changes into this manifesto as the vast majority will look conpletely past it and be sold on the EU/Corbyn bad line. Knowing dominic cummings its probably already being looked at.

[Northern Goblin]

Honestly I expect us to get another hung Parliament.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Honestly I expect us to get another hung Parliament.

I think that's the most likely outcome, personally. Once the Tories are forced to take an actual position on Brexit for the voters, they are either going to position themselves to play well to the Brexit voters, which will push the centrist wing towards voting for the Lib Dems instead, or they try and position their deal as a more moderate form of Brexit and risk Farage and his crew taking a bite out of their votes.

If they form a pact with the Brexit party, I would expect that to improve the Lib Dems still further.

They will get caned in Scotland and may get hit badly in the south (especially if there are some Remainer pacts set up for certain seats). Every day the campaign goes on I expect their lead to get cut. I wouldn't be surprised if Boris bottles out of any debates as well; there is a good chance he will get made to look like a complete idiot by people that are actually smart (rather than lazy fuckwits that can spout Latin).

Then the price for any pact to form a government will be a second referendum, and that should put Brexit firmly and finally to bed. In a democratic way, just to keep dribbles happy (since he loves democracy so much).

[zmp]

Agreed, but of what year?

Probably next time there is a year that has a 30th of February in it.

[dribbles]

I think that's the most likely outcome, personally. Once the Tories are forced to take an actual position on Brexit for the voters, they are either going to position themselves to play well to the Brexit voters, which will push the centrist wing towards voting for the Lib Dems instead, or they try and position their deal as a more moderate form of Brexit and risk Farage and his crew taking a bite out of their votes.

If they form a pact with the Brexit party, I would expect that to improve the Lib Dems still further.

They will get caned in Scotland and may get hit badly in the south (especially if there are some Remainer pacts set up for certain seats). Every day the campaign goes on I expect their lead to get cut. I wouldn't be surprised if Boris bottles out of any debates as well; there is a good chance he will get made to look like a complete idiot by people that are actually smart (rather than lazy fuckwits that can spout Latin).

Then the price for any pact to form a government will be a second referendum, and that should put Brexit firmly and finally to bed. In a democratic way, just to keep dribbles happy (since he loves democracy so much).

Didn't you say this wouldn't be an "all about Brexit" General Election? I'm sure you were wittering on about zero hour contracts and food banks and NHS privatisation and so many other irrelevant things just a couple of days ago. And yet here you are coming around to my way of thinking that this election will be only about Brexit, making posts referencing it that mention nothing but Brexit as if that's the only point of it.

Let's agree to call it what you and I agree it is. An exclusively Brexit election, almost a second referendum wouldn't you say? And when you lose, again, with Boris elected in an outright majority it will be difficult to do a Swinson and not respect the result.

Ironic the result will be declared on, unlucky for some, Friday 13th. Tell me do you feel lucky? One of us will be.

[Gorsameth]

Didn't you say this wouldn't be an "all about Brexit" General Election? I'm sure you were wittering on about zero hour contracts and food banks and NHS privatisation and so many other irrelevant things just a couple of days ago. And yet here you are coming around to my way of thinking that this election will be only about Brexit, making posts referencing it that mention nothing but Brexit as if that's the only point of it.

Let's agree to call it what you and I agree it is. An exclusively Brexit election, almost a second referendum wouldn't you say? And when you lose, again, with Boris elected in an outright majority it will be difficult to do a Swinson and not respect the result.

Ironic the result will be declared on, unlucky for some, Friday 13th. Tell me do you feel lucky? One of us will be.

Just going to quote this for prosterity, you know incase Boris's Leave at any cost doesn't win the GE and your clear statement that we should respect the result.

[Kallisto]

Didn't you say this wouldn't be an "all about Brexit" General Election? I'm sure you were wittering on about zero hour contracts and food banks and NHS privatisation and so many other irrelevant things just a couple of days ago. And yet here you are coming around to my way of thinking that this election will be only about Brexit, making posts referencing it that mention nothing but Brexit as if that's the only point of it.

Let's agree to call it what you and I agree it is. An exclusively Brexit election, almost a second referendum wouldn't you say? And when you lose, again, with Boris elected in an outright majority it will be difficult to do a Swinson and not respect the result.

Ironic the result will be declared on, unlucky for some, Friday 13th. Tell me do you feel lucky? One of us will be.

And when the remain parties get combined over 50% will you accept that the public will accept remain or will you twist it to think 30-40% of the people = 50%+ of the people.

Also

https://twitter.com/Joelwillans/stat...79202954096643

[dribbles]

And when the remain parties get combined over 50% will you accept that the public will accept remain or will you twist it to think 30-40% of the people = 50%+ of the people.

Also

https://twitter.com/Joelwillans/stat...79202954096643

Only the Fib Dems are clearly for Remain? 60% of Labour constituencies were for Leave at the last election, not counting them as remainers in your disingenuous remain majority are you? That's counting Corbyns chickens before they are hatched this time around.

The electorate won't be kind to those existing Labour MP's who lied on their last manifesto with false brexit promises about honouring the referendum, especially in those northern marginals.

Fool me once, fool me twice kinda thing. I doubt your victory will come from them, but your minority for remain result surely will.

[nonameelf]

So, if I understand the situation right:
Holding a second vote on Brexit now that it's known people were lied to by Johnson and others is undemocratic and bad.
Repeatedly holding general elections to try to get the government you want is good.

Am I understanding what's going on right?

[Elegiac]

I'm curious how the Tories would campaign on their deal. BXP seem to hate it, as it splits the Union, and everyone else hates it because it's objectively shit. How are they going to defend that?

It's a good question. And as mentioned, there's a difference between defending it to other coked up idiots in Parliament versus as part of your campaign platform.

The problem is, again, one of opposition - Corbyn's a shitbag (@Skroe, I don't like the fucker either so #notallsocialists), and no third party is in a position to contest for leadership.

Though if it were up to, me I'd honestly offer the Premiership to Nicola Sturgeon since she seems to be the only competent executive official in the United Kingdom at present, and the SNP the only party taking anything remotely seriously.

[Malacrass]

Damn, I genuinely feel sorry for you guys. I mean sure it's your fault, and it's not like I care much about Christmas or the weeks leading to it anyway, but another bloody British election campaign-war during the time of the year where people are supposed to calm down and end the year somewhat reconciled? You don't deserve this. It's super tasteless, even if you are not religious.

Could have waited till January, at least.