Don't "seasons" kinda cancel the age old "year long raid tier" idea?

[TwoMana]

Why are people coming up with fictitious numbers? No two seasons have lasted the same amount of time.

They last roughly 6 months. There are some differences of course Season 1 was a bit shorter. Season 3 will be a bit longer. But we're talking about rough ballpark figures here. No one has access to the Blizzard project management excel sheet.

If you want a good expansion, Ny'alotha should last 8 months with prepatch after those months Making a release ~November.

Um, I wonder who is coming up with the fictious numbers now?
The correlation between a "good expansion" and some arbitrarily taken duration for pre-patch is based on.. what exactly?.

[Merin]

If it won't be ready by August it won't release in August. Not sure what's hard to understand there.

Expansion is a lot bigger effort than a patch, so it's not out of realm of possibility that it can take more than usual 6 months give or take.

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I, personally, hope they will release August/September, but they can indeed end up releasing December too if they decide things need more time and it's worth the wait.

BfA wasn't ready, didn't stop them from throwing it out the door raw.

[Dracullus]

I have no idea how it could matter. Last raid tier/pvp season were always longer, it could be the same with m+ season. But I think 9.0 will release on October, I don't think they want 3rd BfA MDI on Blizzcon.

I agree that BfA Beta was too short, but it was just 1.5 month shorter if we aknowledge Christmas break. Extra month would help rid out season 1 bugs, but wouldn't repair bad BfA systems. So imo public Alpha should start early March, two months are enough to process 8.3 loot feedback.

[mrsohta]

I hope they don't release it in August

[justandulas]

If it won't be ready by August it won't release in August. Not sure what's hard to understand there.

Expansion is a lot bigger effort than a patch, so it's not out of realm of possibility that it can take more than usual 6 months give or take.

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I, personally, hope they will release August/September, but they can indeed end up releasing December too if they decide things need more time and it's worth the wait.

I think December is the likely candidate. Watching some behind the scenes interviews with ion by guys like preach and a few others; it’s clear they aren’t far along in development at all and many things are undecided or unfinished.

Ion himself was saying very late 2020 in his interview with preach and said it multiple times. With blizzard and how they put quality over quarterly reports; it wouldn’t be too shocking to see it pushed into early 2021

[Nize]

Legion beta started in May 6th, 2018 and game was released in August 30 2016.
BFA beta started on April 24, 2018 and was released in August 14 2018.

I don't see why it wouldn't be the same for Shadowlands.

Both those games announced it would release in Q3 (before Sept. 21) of the respective years they were released. Shadowlands is slated for Q4 release, so October-December.

[Trumpcat]

I like the seasonal approach, but I don't like how one patch makes previous content of the same expansion irrelevant. So maybe I don't like the seasonal approach.

[CerealLord]

Also Miyamoto: "No, redo Paper Mario Sticker Star because it's too much like The Thousand Year Door"

Being like Thousand Year Door would have been the best thing for that game. Sticker Star was a damn shame.

[RaZz0r]

I mean all it means is that the last " season " will be a bit longer and personally i don't mind a one year last raid.
As long as the release of the next xpack is not a rushed mess like BFA was like it was so rushed.
That azerite system which was the core gear system of the whole xpack did not even get added to the beta until like 3 days before official release.
So i rather have the blizzard of old its ready when its ready and the classic Soon TM for the next xpack event tho im sick to death of BFA already

[Zyky]

Um, I wonder who is coming up with the fictious numbers now?
The correlation between a "good expansion" and some arbitrarily taken duration for pre-patch is based on.. what exactly?.

We have more data to estimate the length of a pre-patch than we do the length of a season(as we've only had 2 complete seasons). We also have data that proves if they rush a final tier the subsequent expansion is uncompleted and untested.

[Bwgmon]

No where has been said Q4. I might be wrong but I saw articles stating release December 31, 2020. However they are unofficial articles, so people probably pulled it from their ass.

December 31 is listed as the "on or before" release date. If memory serves, a company is legally required to have a date set to take pre-purchases in some countries. Every time Blizzard announces something and puts it up for pre-purchase, its release date gets listed as "on or before December 31, [year]," then refined to whatever the final day of the expected season is(September 21-23 when targeting a Summer window, for example), before being refined to a solid date about two or three months before launch.

[Bhanzai]

Read again before acting smart. If I wanted to say alpha, I would say alpha as well but I did not, I specifically said BETA.

Both expansions were equally good.

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I had to go back to Blizzcon announcement.



9:22 - World of WarCraft Shadowlands comming next year, available for pre-purchase today.

No where has been said Q4. I might be wrong but I saw articles stating release December 31, 2020. However they are unofficial articles, so people probably pulled it from their ass.

Am I missing something?

Pretty sure the release date is on the prepurchase site,
12/31/2020. It will definitely come out earlier but it wont be August or September

[TwoMana]

We have more data to estimate the length of a pre-patch than we do the length of a season(as we've only had 2 complete seasons).

What are you on about?
We have season data from January 30, 2007 onward.
We've had 27 seasons so far. A season usually starts one week after the release of a major patch and ends when a new major patch is released.

The average duration of all the seasons so far is 22 weeks. That's 5,5 months. So "roughly" 6 months.

We also have data that proves if they rush a final tier the subsequent expansion is uncompleted and untested.

Eh? Are you actually serious?

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Legion Alpha/Beta cycle lasted 11 months.

BfA Alpha/Beta cycle lasted 6 months.


Which was the better expansion. Not hard to work out is it?

On what metric? My own? In that case BFA is superior. Legion made me quit.

[Zyky]

What are you on about?

You're actually retarded aren't you? This whole thread has been about M+ seasonal affixes, not PvP seasons.

[TwoMana]

You're actually retarded aren't you? This whole thread has been about M+ seasonal affixes, not PvP seasons.

And how are they different in relation to patch releases?

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Why people are so pessimistic about summer release? There's no new class, just 4 zones, same amount of dungeons as usual and a raid. I feel that the hardest part is visual stuff and it seems to be almost done. They are not going to change the classes a lot as before Legion, don't expect that.

They watch too much youtube. Some influensers said "they seem to be very early in development" and then this forums does.. well.. the usual stuff that this forum is known for..

[Zyky]

And how are they different in relation to patch releases?

Because several PvP seasons have taken place during the course of the same raid tier. For example in Warlords, there were 2 PvP seasons during the course of Hellfire Citadel. And several PvP seasons have lasted well into the upper 30s in terms of weeks.

[TwoMana]

Because several PvP seasons have taken place during the course of the same raid tier. For example in Warlords, there were 2 PvP seasons during the course of Hellfire Citadel. And several PvP seasons have lasted well into the upper 30s in terms of weeks.

I guess we'll see in 2020, won't we?

[Zyky]

Why people are so pessimistic about summer release? There's no new class, just 4 zones, same amount of dungeons as usual and a raid. I feel that the hardest part is visual stuff and it seems to be almost done.

Well lets list how much you got wrong with 3 sentences.

- There's 5 zones and the capital making 6.
- A new revolutionary dungeon, requiring tech not in the game currently.
- A tech unknown to the players to tailor craft a legendary.
- Visuals are far from being "done" as they only had a small amount to show at Blizzcon.


Now lets go into specific real world reasons as to why the expansion won't launch in summer.

- No final tier has lasted under 9 months, even Antorus, which was the expansion that had the fastest rate of content turnover. And many raiders felt Antorus didn't last long enough.
- As history has shown us with Warlords and BFA, when Blizzard rushes an expansion, it's unfinished, untested garbage.


With that bit of factual knowledge, we can easily predict that Ny'alotha will last no shorter than 9 months. Which would open into mid-September which will not happen because of Blizzcon. Which would push it to mid-October and they tried that with Warlords and stated that it was a HUGE mistake releasing the expansion right before 2 major US Holidays causing Highmaul to be a mess of a tier because of several guilds not having the time to dedicate to progression. With that knowledge you can expect a release right before Christmas with the first raid coming out mid January 2021.

They are not going to change the classes a lot as before Legion, don't expect that.

That was their entire selling point on Shadowlands, reverting Classes back to a whole Class rather than having Fire Mages randomly forgetting how to cast Frostbolt. Or do you not even know anything about the expansion and are fully talking out of your ass?

[Gaidax]

Why people are so pessimistic about summer release? There's no new class, just 4 zones, same amount of dungeons as usual and a raid. I feel that the hardest part is visual stuff and it seems to be almost done. They are not going to change the classes a lot as before Legion, don't expect that.

Their art team is always ahead of others, the hardest part is tech.

I am pretty sure Torghast is a big undertaking there and covenants with their soulbind combinations also seem complex. They are likely to dump most of their time there trying to make it work well and not require bandaid fixes mid expansion.

[plz delete account]

The problem is even with a new patch in January, there's no way BfA will be sustainable for another year. Even a November release of Shadowlands is pushing it. BfA has to put the sub count at an all-time low (honestly shocked, and more pissed, we're getting a huge raid tier instead of just moving on to 9.0). They can't possibly think this will last til Q4 2020.

Also consider this: They're delaying 8.3 because of holiday season, so September at the latest would be a nice drop since there's no major holidays to get in the way for quite awhile, meaning Octoberish would be when the raid drops, so all the hardcore teams would be done before Thanksgiving (in the US). Of course, July/August would work just as well. A November/December release is begging for trouble since the top teams (and even non-top Mythic teams [and even everyone else]) will want to play during the holiday season, which is a bad thing forcing people to choose between their entertainment and their F&F.

Just to give an idea of previous releases, LK and Cata released in November and December (respectively), and they likely weren't really thinking about stuff like the above. WoD also released in November, but WoD was such a shitshow as well with the transition. If their new philosophy is to not force people to do progression (even in a PATCH to prep for the next raid) during the holidays, there's a very, very, VERY low chance of a Q4 release (early October at the ABSOLUTE latest) since there would be way too much stuff for the top players to do and they would absolutely be forced to choose. We also know for a fact (unless it gets delayed at this point) that Shadowlands is releasing in 2020, as per the official website for it.

TL;DR: Based on their philosophy of not wanting people to be forced into prog (even for pre-raid) during the holidays, Early October 2020 release at the absolute latest (I give that a ~2% chance), with an almost guaranteed (~98% chance) of a Q3 2020 release, closer to the middle of Q3 (August seems most likely).


Also Miyamoto: "No, redo Paper Mario Sticker Star because it's too much like The Thousand Year Door"
*is delayed and redone* [Miyamoto]: "Now it's fucking boring" [Devs]: 'Well it's too late cuz we already shipped it'

You forget 8.3.5 is confirmed to be coming out, (no details other than it is coming out, because Shadowlands hadn't been announced yet), probably somewhere between 3-6 months after 8.3.0.

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Ahh the classic "selective" data to prove my point.

Legion had a far longer testing period than BfA. Almost double.

BfA has a far lower meta critic user and reviewer score. It is universally deadpanned across all forms of digital, written and social media. It also caused mass unsubs that were only saved by Classic.

This isn't up for debate anymore. It's fact. They even went as far to almost admit it was a failure at Blizzcon in various interviews.

sub bleeding was stopped by 8.2, which was months before Classic.