Possible release date prediction

[btlcryct]

we havent waited a month for raid release in a while bud

maybe a week after patch raid opens like it has been

It hasn't been a week for the last three expansions at least. They said they didn't want people playing non-stop to get to max level and have the raid open a week after launch. WoD launched 11/13 and Highmaul opened 12/2 for normal and heroic with mythic and LFR wing 1 a week later. Legion went live 8/30, Emerald Nightmare opened 9/20 using the same timeline as Highmaul. BFA launched 8/14 and Uldir opened on 9/4, using the same structure as Highmaul and EN. So agreed it's not 1-2 months after launch, but it hasn't been a week since at least MoP. The last three expansions have been 3 weeks after live.

[razorpax]

It hasn't been a week for the last three expansions at least. They said they didn't want people playing non-stop to get to max level and have the raid open a week after launch. WoD launched 11/13 and Highmaul opened 12/2 for normal and heroic with mythic and LFR wing 1 a week later. Legion went live 8/30, Emerald Nightmare opened 9/20 using the same timeline as Highmaul. BFA launched 8/14 and Uldir opened on 9/4, using the same structure as Highmaul and EN. So agreed it's not 1-2 months after launch, but it hasn't been a week since at least MoP. The last three expansions have been 3 weeks after live.

i always thought launch raids came out 2 weeks later but patch raids like the 8.3 raid comes out the same two week cycle

[btlcryct]

MoP was the last raid that opened a week after the expansion went live. Since then it's been 3 weeks every time at the launch. Mid-expansion raids have been all over the place as far as time from patch live to raid open. Legion followed a 7.x was content and 7.x.5 was the raid, anywhere from a month to 3 months after 7.x. For example, 7.2 went live 3/28 and ToS didn't open until 6/20.

[razorpax]

MoP was the last raid that opened a week after the expansion went live. Since then it's been 3 weeks every time at the launch. Mid-expansion raids have been all over the place as far as time from patch live to raid open. Legion followed a 7.x was content and 7.x.5 was the raid, anywhere from a month to 3 months after 7.x. For example, 7.2 went live 3/28 and ToS didn't open until 6/20.

but in bfa the raids launch after 2 weeks each meaning

8.3 launch jan 7th
raid launch jan 21st
alpha launch feb 4th

[btlcryct]

Nope. 8.1 went live 12/11/18 and BDA opened 1/22/19, so 6 weeks. CoS was 4/16/19, so over 4 months. 8.2 did go live 6/25 and EP opened 7/9, so that was 2 weeks. So the next raid, who knows. Blizzard wasn't consistent with a pattern during BFA.

[razorpax]

Nope. 8.1 went live 12/11/18 and BDA opened 1/22/19, so 6 weeks. CoS was 4/16/19, so over 4 months. 8.2 did go live 6/25 and EP opened 7/9, so that was 2 weeks. So the next raid, who knows. Blizzard wasn't consistent with a pattern during BFA.

hmmmm

well the legendary cloak is essentially required for the next raid and taht takes a couple hours all together which is definitely not normal

i can only hope its just 2 weeks

[tounsi]

Release: After blizzcon right after they announce that its the final expansion before wow 2 to create hype

[MrLachyG]

Release: After blizzcon right after they announce that its the final expansion before wow 2 to create hype

why would they make a WoW 2?

[schwarzkopf]

Here are 3 reasons I believe that the expansion will launch earlier than most believe.

We are pretty sure it will release mid-late November 2020 based on the previous pattern of release date compared to 'will be available by' date on pre-purchase over the last 4 of them.

The last 4 preorders for WoW give away a pattern - don't expect it too soon.


WoD - 5 weeks to spare

Release : November 13th, 2014
Guarantee : December 20th, 2014

Legion - 3 weeks to spare

Release : August 30th, 2016
Guarantee : September 21st, 2016

BfA - 5 weeks to spare

Release : August 14th, 2018
Guarantee : September 21st, 2018

Shadowlands

Release : ?? Mid November 2020 ??
Guarantee : December 31st, 2020

[Muajin76]

Here are 3 reasons I believe that the expansion will launch earlier than most believe.

1. Financial junk:
If they launch the game near the end of a quarter then they can brag about the sales in the reports for both quarters. Also helps by launching outside of the Nov-Dec time where most ppl buy presents that can essentially steal from the WoW hype.

2. Competitive junk
MDI and arena heck even the WF race are all in one way or another important to the game and especially important to the hype for BlizzCon. Let's say people are correct about it launching in December. That launch would place BlizzCon in the pre-patch limbo meaning no competition at BlizzCon because the game wouldn't be balanced around BFA. That means that for there to be any WoW competitions then the expansion would have to be out for a minimum of 6 weeks before BlizzCon ( 2 weeks for raid unlock another for mythic unlock and 2 more for the race with 1 for rest)

3. Support
We saw blizz state they want to wait on releasing a patch until after the holidays because they wouldn't have enough tech support for launch..... with a small patch..... imagine how it would be with an expansion.


I suspect that the latest is the 29th of September 2020 for the reasons stated above.

Alpha early Feb
Beta March
Pre-patch August

haha we have this same forum post every expac *oh..let's speculate when it will be released*
they are usually released around the same time. :P

[tounsi]

why would they make a wow 2?

To create hype

[Zyky]

Few things you have wrong here.

2. Competitive junk
MDI and arena heck even the WF race are all in one way or another important to the game and especially important to the hype for BlizzCon. Let's say people are correct about it launching in December. That launch would place BlizzCon in the pre-patch limbo meaning no competition at BlizzCon because the game wouldn't be balanced around BFA. That means that for there to be any WoW competitions then the expansion would have to be out for a minimum of 6 weeks before BlizzCon ( 2 weeks for raid unlock another for mythic unlock and 2 more for the race with 1 for rest)

Assuming Blizzcon is the first weekend in either October or November, prepatch is active for roughly 4 weeks, historically speaking. There would be no overlap with Blizzcon. Blizzcon in October doesn't effect a December release. If it's November 6th and 7th then the pre-patch would likely come out November 10th with a release 4 weeks later on December 8th(maybe even differently with how they've done releases that haven't been on Tuesday). This causes zero overlap no matter how you look at it and it wouldn't effect the world first race either with how they've been delaying first raids several weeks after an expansions launch, the first raid would come out in January and there would be zero holiday overlap for the WF race.

As for why, specifically, it won't come out in September as you're claiming that would cause more issues with everything you're saying. The expansion release would overlap with Canadian Thanksgiving, the raid would overlap with American Thanksgiving, and then having several hundred guilds falling apart because of Christmas right after that. There's a reason they're delaying Ny'alotha until after Christmas season. As for Blizzcon MDI and Arena tournaments would be significantly more messed up with a September release because what platform would they compete on? The expansion platform that just came out a week prior for October Blizzcon or a month prior for a November Blizzcon. Ya that sounds much better lol.

3. Support
We saw blizz state they want to wait on releasing a patch until after the holidays because they wouldn't have enough tech support for launch..... with a small patch..... imagine how it would be with an expansion.

With an early December release it's safely in the middle of Thanksgiving and Christmas with plenty of time for them to support launch, it doesn't take 3 weeks for tech support to solve launch problems, this isn't 2004. Most technical launch issues(all major issues) are solved in the first week of release(again historically accurate based on WoD, Legion, and BFA).

I suspect that the latest is the 29th of September 2020 for the reasons stated above.

And this would be different from a pre-patch mess for MDI/Blizzcon tournaments how? As I explained above this would be WORSE than a December release significantly.


They've tried many releases, WoD came out right before American Thanksgiving and they said this was awful because of how the raid release lined up(with a significantly lower participation rate and high guild turnover rate in Highmaul). Cataclysm came out December 7th and was perfectly fine technically, the only downfall was the raids weren't delayed until after Christmas, which messed up a lot of players because of Christmas and New Years. Historically the best expansions, technically(since that's really you're only actual claim), have come out in Summer or in December.

[Th3Scourge]

I'm betting on Q4 2020. Most likely mid October with 9.1 what's next at Blizzcon the following month. Later than that (Post-Blizzcon), and raid content will coincide with Thanksgiving, which they want to avoid if possible. I don't forsee a December release if they want to keep the Christmas/New Years period free from releases.

I'm betting on 9.0 going live October 14th. Prepatch 23rd September. Any earlier would appear to be going against what they are trying to avoid - rushing things like 8.0

[razorpax]

Few things you have wrong here.




Assuming Blizzcon is the first weekend in either October or November, prepatch is active for roughly 4 weeks, historically speaking. There would be no overlap with Blizzcon. Blizzcon in October doesn't effect a December release. If it's November 6th and 7th then the pre-patch would likely come out November 10th with a release 4 weeks later on December 8th(maybe even differently with how they've done releases that haven't been on Tuesday). This causes zero overlap no matter how you look at it and it wouldn't effect the world first race either with how they've been delaying first raids several weeks after an expansions launch, the first raid would come out in January and there would be zero holiday overlap for the WF race.

As for why, specifically, it won't come out in September as you're claiming that would cause more issues with everything you're saying. The expansion release would overlap with Canadian Thanksgiving, the raid would overlap with American Thanksgiving, and then having several hundred guilds falling apart because of Christmas right after that. There's a reason they're delaying Ny'alotha until after Christmas season. As for Blizzcon MDI and Arena tournaments would be significantly more messed up with a September release because what platform would they compete on? The expansion platform that just came out a week prior for October Blizzcon or a month prior for a November Blizzcon. Ya that sounds much better lol.




With an early December release it's safely in the middle of Thanksgiving and Christmas with plenty of time for them to support launch, it doesn't take 3 weeks for tech support to solve launch problems, this isn't 2004. Most technical launch issues(all major issues) are solved in the first week of release(again historically accurate based on WoD, Legion, and BFA).




And this would be different from a pre-patch mess for MDI/Blizzcon tournaments how? As I explained above this would be WORSE than a December release significantly.


They've tried many releases, WoD came out right before American Thanksgiving and they said this was awful because of how the raid release lined up(with a significantly lower participation rate and high guild turnover rate in Highmaul). Cataclysm came out December 7th and was perfectly fine technically, the only downfall was the raids weren't delayed until after Christmas, which messed up a lot of players because of Christmas and New Years. Historically the best expansions, technically(since that's really you're only actual claim), have come out in Summer or in December.

a launch in september makes it to where players have a month in the new game to go for mdi compared to prepatch is the point im guessing

cata had quite a few issues especially with raids because ya know....t11 was a thing

- - - Updated - - -

haha we have this same forum post every expac *oh..let's speculate when it will be released*
they are usually released around the same time. :P

yeah sept-dec

- - - Updated - - -

We are pretty sure it will release mid-late November 2020 based on the previous pattern of release date compared to 'will be available by' date on pre-purchase over the last 4 of them.

The last 4 preorders for WoW give away a pattern - don't expect it too soon.


WoD - 5 weeks to spare

Release : November 13th, 2014
Guarantee : December 20th, 2014

Legion - 3 weeks to spare

Release : August 30th, 2016
Guarantee : September 21st, 2016

BfA - 5 weeks to spare

Release : August 14th, 2018
Guarantee : September 21st, 2018

Shadowlands

Release : ?? Mid November 2020 ??
Guarantee : December 31st, 2020

then post blizzconwith blizzcon in oct??

[Chickat]

It will launch September-November 2020.

[Good ol Stroggylos]

Seeing how vogue they were re systems, zones, lore I would hope quality vs profit report would prevail and would see the release the latest date possible even if they would breach terms of prepurchase.
But since they already launched the prepurchase and having the experience of Activision blizzard they wouldn't care about delivering a suboptimal 9.0 so am afraid they may do it in September...

[Tech614]

We are pretty sure it will release mid-late November 2020 based on the previous pattern of release date compared to 'will be available by' date on pre-purchase over the last 4 of them.

The last 4 preorders for WoW give away a pattern - don't expect it too soon.


WoD - 5 weeks to spare

Release : November 13th, 2014
Guarantee : December 20th, 2014

Legion - 3 weeks to spare

Release : August 30th, 2016
Guarantee : September 21st, 2016

BfA - 5 weeks to spare

Release : August 14th, 2018
Guarantee : September 21st, 2018

Shadowlands

Release : ?? Mid November 2020 ??
Guarantee : December 31st, 2020

This really means nothing outside of them possibly having more wiggle room to delay if needed and not being hard deadlined to a Q3 release. You can bet your ass they're still aiming for Q3, likely Sep but gave a conservative estimate in case beta feedback is bad and they need to make larger changes before launch.

There is no way imaginable that blizzard doesn't want this xpac out before blizzcon, because they want you already playing the launch content when they talk to you about 9.1 and 9.2. That is literally a worst case scenerio if it gets pushed past blizzcon for them, and creates a situation where if someone sees something they like about a patch they might go "oh I'll wait until then to sub I guess".

[razorpax]

This really means nothing outside of them possibly having more wiggle room to delay if needed and not being hard deadlined to a Q3 release. You can bet your ass they're still aiming for Q3, likely Sep but gave a conservative estimate in case beta feedback is bad and they need to make larger changes before launch.

There is no way imaginable that blizzard doesn't want this xpac out before blizzcon, because they want you already playing the launch content when they talk to you about 9.1 and 9.2. That is literally a worst case scenerio if it gets pushed past blizzcon for them, and creates a situation where if someone sees something they like about a patch they might go "oh I'll wait until then to sub I guess".

add to the fact you wont here the catch phrase "we agree with you that system needs to change"

we dont know a lot about how systems will work but like it has been pointed out.....azerite had 3 days of testing before launch

[Donald Hellscream]

I'd say November next year, it has only happened once that Blizzard failed to meet the release date of an expansion, with Burning Crusade slated for a december release but being pushed to January. As that has only happened once in WoW's history, there is no reason to assume it will happen this time around, especially since every expansion bar the Burning Crusade released well before what the preorder date said.

[Veox89]

I actually dont mind a long final raid tier. I like to take a break or tie up any loose ends such as achievements or mounts, especially if they're going to be removed.