Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Kokolums]

This thread is now over a year old. No sign of recession. Job market still hot.

The thread start on November 20th, 2018 and the closing price on the Dow was 24,465. Today it stands at 28015. That is a gain of 14.5%. Excellent for a major index which moves very slow. An ETF like closed at 259 on 11/20/18. Today it is 315. A 21% gain.

What did I say?

The bull market is not over and there is no recession in sight. This is just a correction to be bought.

There are always corrections. Corrections happen regularly in bull markets. Honestly, you don't sound very knowledgeable about markets to be commenting on them.

The market is down about 10%.

BUT

The market was down about 20% from May to October 2011. Was that the end of the bull market? No.

The market hit a peak in December 2014 that it couldn't solidly clear until July 2016. The market spent about a year and a half backing and filling. Was that the end of the bull market? No.

Yet here you are going into hysterics about a 10% drop. Calm down. The market is fine.

The market went up about 50% from february 2016 to february 2018. That's insanely good. That one of the best runs EVER. So what if it spends the rest of 2018 down just 10% after a run like that? The economy is healthy.

- - - Updated - - -


The market can stay flat for years after a huge runup. YEARS! We spent a year a half between 2014 and 2016 struggling to hit new highs. Then it exploded higher. The market is doing it again since february, which is just nine months. This is nothing. When you post the things you are posting, you sound like someone that doesn't know markets. I've been an investor since the 1980s. I know what's going on. There is no recession coming. This is not a crash. We're down 10%. We could drop 20% and it still wouldn't be a recession.

Your attitude IS how people lose money. They invest emotionally, scream about recessions that aren't there, and panic sell. Then they sit out while the market roars back.

[Draco-Onis]

This thread is now over a year old. No sign of recession. Job market still hot.

You mean besides GDP, wage stagnation, global slowdown, tariffs bailouts, economic indicators, the fed lowering rates and QE to stimulate the market. I am glad you are confirming you are blind no wonder you see civil wars propping everywhere.

[Kokolums]

You mean besides GDP, wage stagnation, global slowdown, tariffs bailouts, economic indicators, the fed lowering rates and QE to stimulate the market. I am glad you are confirming you are blind no wonder you see civil wars propping everywhere.

Its been over a year and the economy is blazing hot. This thread is a dud. If you were an investment advisor, made your clients dump everything in November 2018 and sat out all this time, you would be rightly fired.

[Draco-Onis]

Its been over a year and the economy is blazing hot. This thread is a dud. If you were an investment advisor, made your clients dump everything in November 2018 and sat out all this time, you would be rightly fired.

I wonder how can you think the country is on the cusp of civil war and think infinite economic prosperity is on the table? do you not realize the contradiction or are you just blind? Also you are confusing the market with economy, the economy is not blazing hot.

[Breccia]

You mean besides GDP, wage stagnation, global slowdown, tariffs bailouts, economic indicators, the fed lowering rates and QE to stimulate the market.

Throw in "likely incorrect job numbers conveniently arriving after three-day slide".

But even with all of that, let's look at the data so far.



Trump's own words and actions, the ones that caused this thread to be created and remain both active and true, have kept him behind Obama for the vast majority of his tenure...which for Obama, includes 2009. The fact that (failed) businessman Trump is consistently doing worse is testimony of how much of a failure his policies are.

Incidentally, Trump's hope for a mini-deal with China (aka "we'll both roll back some of increases we've put on each other, but things will still be objectively worse than Jan 19, 2017") are likely pinned on this very thread. He doesn't want it to happen twice, which is a very real risk. If tariffs on hundreds of billions of goods slam down during the Christmas shopping rush, Trump stands at very real risk of lost most of, maybe all of, the gains he made this year. Trump is almost certainly aware of this, and desperate for anything he can paint as a win.

Until then, I guess the rabid fanbase is left with "Trump didn't do as badly this year as he did last year" which isn't the victory cry they think it is.

[Dontrike]

This thread is now over a year old. No sign of recession. Job market still hot.

The thread start on November 20th, 2018 and the closing price on the Dow was 24,465. Today it stands at 28015. That is a gain of 14.5%. Excellent for a major index which moves very slow. An ETF like closed at 259 on 11/20/18. Today it is 315. A 21% gain.

What did I say?

It's funny that you think the stock market actually helps most Americans. How that GDP again? That's right, it had to be corrected to be just slightly over 2% for the quarter.

[jeezusisacasual]

Its been over a year and the economy is blazing hot. This thread is a dud. If you were an investment advisor, made your clients dump everything in November 2018 and sat out all this time, you would be rightly fired.

Also if the economy was amazing you would see stronger tightening controls in that interest rates going up ( they are struggling on this mostly due to the corporate debtload is my guess which would cause a nasty economic slide if just a few of the juggernauts get labeled worse then -bbb ). As it stands now we have next to no tools to lower interest rates should a major slump happen because again the FED lowered rates inline with central banks across the globe. And no i did not lose my job i actually moved away from the states back to Oceania.

I am still confident the next presidential term (regardless of whom wins) will deal with a very nasty recession which could get worse due to the lack of tools available to them.

[Rasulis]

This thread is now over a year old. No sign of recession. Job market still hot.

The thread start on November 20th, 2018 and the closing price on the Dow was 24,465. Today it stands at 28015. That is a gain of 14.5%. Excellent for a major index which moves very slow. An ETF like closed at 259 on 11/20/18. Today it is 315. A 21% gain.

What did I say?

Nuances are very important when looking at the stock market. Back in August someone did a table which showed that only 10% of the S&P 500 companies have recovered their stock values from the 2018 low. So how did the stock indexes broke all their previous record highs?

Because that 10% includes Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, etc. Microsoft & Apple each is currently worth 4% of the S&P 500 by market cap. A 1% increase in Microsoft stock is worth more than 1% increase of the bottom 50 S&P 500 stocks, and did those large cap stocks increased in 2019.

Microsoft went up 58% from the 2018 low.
Apple – 79%
FB – 60%
Oracle – 29%
Google – 36%
Adobe – 48%
Disney - 47%

Starting to get the picture?

It becomes even more interesting once you go down to small- and mid-cap stocks. Some sectors actually did well. Under the pre-2016 S&P sector classification, the Tech sector would have been over 70% of the index. How about the other sectors?

Mixed. Under the old classifications, Manufacturing is flat. The majority of oil and gas companies' stocks are actually below their lowest point in 2018. Under the current classifications, the numbers gave the illusion of a robust economic growth because the best performing large cap companies were split into different sectors. Using the old classification system, it is apparent that the growth is very uneven and limited to a few sectors.

[Tazkar]

Until then, I guess the rabid fanbase is left with "Trump didn't do as badly this year as he did last year" which isn't the victory cry they think it is.

Well its more denial than anything, as Fox News will continue to proclaim how amazing the economy is, and just how super awesome trump has done with it because they have to push the narrative of Republicans good, Democrats bad there is no other alternative for them.

So the bad thing if trump loses in 2020, and a recession hits even if it hits before the Democrat takes office, Fox News will immediately engage the spin machine of "The Democrats completely ruined Trumps Amazing Economy!"

[Zan15]

Its been over a year and the economy is blazing hot. This thread is a dud. If you were an investment advisor, made your clients dump everything in November 2018 and sat out all this time, you would be rightly fired.

Blazing hot?
Basically the numbers are lower than the second Obama term where they were considered a dud, worst ever, failures, etc etc.

What's blazing about it?
There is nothing blazing hot about our economy.
Its basically the same semi-dud as it was under Obama, only difference now is there is a republican president and even more of the current economy positive benefits are going to less then 1% of the population.


Obama's so called horrible economy still at the same point in their terms had 37% higher performance on the SP500, 28.5% on the Dow
https://www.macrotrends.net/2482/sp5...e-by-president

and all this with trillion dollar deficit and GDP goosed by govt/military spending.

The market was down about 20% from May to October 2011. Was that the end of the bull market? No.

Technically anything dropping 20%+ is the point where the bull market was officially over. There was a single indicator that was .2% off this key point that allows people to keep saying its a single bull market vs multiple bull markets since 2010 ish. I had pointed this out several times already.

Not sure where anyone said people should dump everything?
if you want to make "what ifs" on investment advice, you would have been better off dumping stock on the OP date of this thread then getting back in on the dec lows. or even waiting a year and getting back in when things stabilized.

Then I would have been given a huge bonus and promoted to Exec VP!!

[Kokolums]

Guys, stop it. You are making yourselves look incredibly foolish. There are permabears that said the market was on the edge of collapse ALL thru the 1990s and 2000s and 2010s. Just all horribly wrong. You can't keep peddling dour beliefs in this kind of economy.

[Orbitus]

Guys, stop it. You are making yourselves look incredibly foolish. There are permabears that said the market was on the edge of collapse ALL thru the 1990s and 2000s and 2010s. Just all horribly wrong. You can't keep peddling dour beliefs in this kind of economy.

Says the guy that keeps parroting his fetish for genociding over half the country because he thinks that China and Russia are going to help the alt-right terrorists he is propping up? Also, literally everyone replying to you dunked on you with facts, and you are doing everything you can to ignore the facts because it goes against your narrative of Trump doing nothing wrong.

[PC2]

Guys, stop it. You are making yourselves look incredibly foolish. There are permabears that said the market was on the edge of collapse ALL thru the 1990s and 2000s and 2010s. Just all horribly wrong. You can't keep peddling dour beliefs in this kind of economy.

Yeah history is filled with people who constantly predict doom and then are subsequently proven wrong. But if you want to be above all the fear peddlers then you also need to stop with the "civil war is inevitable" claim, which is just as absurd as all those people saying "economic decline is inevitable".

[Draco-Onis]

Yeah history is filled with people who constantly predict doom and then are subsequently proven wrong. But if you want to be above all the fear peddlers then you also need to stop with the "civil war is inevitable" claim, which is just as absurd as all those people saying "economic decline is inevitable".

When you have an economy with sub 3% GDP growth with projected lower GDP for the next year a recession or a slow down is in the card, you don't need a degree in economics to figure that out. Now there are ways this can be avoided but not likely given we are going into an election in 2020, I am not sure where you got doom and gloom. Facts if the economy was so hot the fed would not be lowering rates and we would not be doing QE and bailouts.

[Dontrike]

Guys, stop it. You are making yourselves look incredibly foolish. There are permabears that said the market was on the edge of collapse ALL thru the 1990s and 2000s and 2010s. Just all horribly wrong. You can't keep peddling dour beliefs in this kind of economy.

Yeah guys! The economy is amazing if you ignore the deficit, GDP, debt, and every other problem.

[PC2]

When you have an economy with sub 3% GDP growth with projected lower GDP for the next year a recession or a slow down is in the card, you don't need a degree in economics to figure that out. Now there are ways this can be avoided but not likely given we are going into an election in 2020, I am not sure where you got doom and gloom. Facts if the economy was so hot the fed would not be lowering rates and we would not be doing QE and bailouts.

Except you can't determine the future through projection. The idea that economists can plug in yesterday's and today's data and then know that economy will be in a recession tomorrow or next year is total nonsense. It's pseudo-science.

[Draco-Onis]

Except you can't determine the future through projection. The idea that economists can plug in yesterday's and today's data and then know that economy will be in a recession tomorrow or next year is total nonsense. It's pseudo-science.

It's not pseudo science it's based on very reliable model and they usually well within the range unless you think Trump's own administration is somehow trying to screw him. I am also enjoying the irony of the person who says leave climate change to future science not believing in science that calculates future outcomes.

[PC2]

It's not pseudo science it's based on very reliable model and they usually well within the range unless you think Trump's own administration is somehow trying to screw him.

Actually there's no such thing as a reliable model for predicting the future state of the economy, they're all unreliable and they always will be due to their fundamental limitation of being a model. If by "range" you mean a "probabilistic model" then you're admitting it's pseudo-science because the only purpose of making a model probabilistic is to protect the model from being *falsified*. Which is unacceptable for any field that wants to be included under the umbrella of science.

[Draco-Onis]

Actually there's no such thing as a reliable model for predicting the future state of the economy, they're all unreliable and they always will be due to their fundamental limitation of being a model. If by "range" you mean a "probabilistic model" then you're admitting it's pseudo-science because the only purpose of making a model probabilistic is to protect the model from being *falsified*. Which is unacceptable for any field that wants to be included under the umbrella of science.

A range is something every statistical model has, ever heard of margin of error? you are basically calling an entire field of mathematics pseudo science.

[PC2]

A range is something every statistical model has, ever heard of margin of error? you are basically calling the entire field of mathematics pseudo science.

If the use of mathematics is for an inductive and probabilistic model then yes it is pseudo-science. Unless a model can be proven 100% wrong then it has nothing to do with science.