Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Kokolums]

Probably because he is right? Something you can't claim to be.

Emotional responses like this are invalid and prove I am correct.

[Dontrike]

I've invested in the markets since the 1980s. I've seen the market boom thru the 80s, the 90s, the 2000s, the 2010s. ALL the way up, every single year, people would cherry pick stats to argue the market is about to collapse when the market was clearly healthy and booming. They were all wrong.

What makes you different?

Couldn't be because the numbers dropping everywhere for a while now thanks to Trump's decisions. Nope, that would be silly.

[Orbitus]

Emotional responses like this are invalid and prove I am correct.

Yeah, emotional responses about being right, LOL. Fucking hilarious.

[Vash The Stampede]

The banks have been given 3 trillion dollars from the Federal reverse since September and we're ignorant to this because nobody is talking about it. Essentially we're back to the housing crisis from 2008 except it isn't houses but banks getting free money that just got pumped into the economy that is surely going to devalue the dollar.

[jeezusisacasual]

I've invested in the markets since the 1980s. I've seen the market boom thru the 80s, the 90s, the 2000s, the 2010s. ALL the way up, every single year, people would cherry pick stats to argue the market is about to collapse when the market was clearly healthy and booming. They were all wrong.

What makes you different?

Because the metrics for a healthy and stable economy would not have to introduce QE to begin with ( it was a response to the previous collapse ). Also as i have stated before that corporate debt will be the driver, the reason for this is due to how cheap money is currently. If the FED raised rates in this environment you would have a flush of corporations struggle to pay back their debt, the vast majority are extremely over leveraged which would mean that they would lose their credit standing. -BBB is the lowest one can be to be considered Investment grade, what happens when say 8-12% of the overall listed corporations are listed below that? It would trigger hysteria. I am very sure that alot of the listed companies are only listed as high as they are due to how interwoven they are to the stock market.

That is the point, that Hysteria would trigger most of the algorithms to sell. Which would be a cascading effect on the way down which is another reason why the repo market madness that happened was so dangerous. It comes back to the reasoning that most listed corporations have problems with the current credit allotments they are stuck with. Also the FED lost control to work the market they own now over 4 Trillion in assets which would turn toxic if the credit ratings of those corporations ( in which the assets are apart of ) which would have a further crippling effect.

This is why QT ( Quantitative Tightening ) is so hard to pull off. The overall markets around the world know how to manipulate the market to force the central banks buying more assets ( Look at Bank of Japan for example i could write paragraphs on this alone ). When i am telling my clients about moving money to safer assets its not timing the market, do not be so damn dense. Its due to expecting a slowdown without massive stimulus and more world wide easing ( which they are all tied together now so even if you want less globalism our financial markets will always be globalized ). This is the other aspect that i worry about is the lack of basic inflationary metrics, with all the money printing and outside of a few sectors we have next to no inflation ( The FED wants inflation to make the owned debt cheaper over the longer term ).

I am no different to no one else in my field, i am protecting the people i work for and nothing more. If i am wrong guess what? I will still be trading and i will still get my bonuses and my salary because again if i could time the market i would be Miss Cleo and not some desk jockey.

[Rasulis]

I've invested in the markets since the 1980s. I've seen the market boom thru the 80s, the 90s, the 2000s, the 2010s. ALL the way up, every single year, people would cherry pick stats to argue the market is about to collapse when the market was clearly healthy and booming. They were all wrong.

What makes you different?

Funny you mentioned the 2000s. Wasn't that the decade where we had two recessions with combined 12 trillion in lost assets?

[arandomuser]

just gonna pop this in here \



not that it matters because peoples quality of life hasnt increased as gdp increased and unemployment went down as 90% of the gains went to the top 0.01%

[Rasulis]

Our economy is screwy. The retail sector is shedding jobs like crazy. The only reason the unemployment numbers are not going up is because they are being absorbed by the warehouse industry. Another low paying sector.

Not all retail segments are losing market share. There are now more dollar stores than McDonald’s and Starbucks combined. These stores are now killing local grocery stores that managed to survive Walmart and Amazon. The are replacing fresh produce with rows and rows of sugary drinks, candies, and processed foods high in salt and fat.

High paying R&D jobs are limited to a few metro areas. Here is an interesting study from Brookings Institute.

Regional divergence has reached extreme levels in the U.S. innovation sector. The innovation sector—composed of 13 of the nation’s highest-tech, highest R&D “advanced industries—contributes inordinately to regional and U.S. prosperity, and its diffusion into new places would greatly benefit the nation’s well-being. However, the sector has instead been concentrating in a short list of superstar metropolitan areas. Most notably, just five top innovation metro areas—Boston, San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, and San Diego—accounted for more than 90% of the nation’s innovation-sector growth during the years 2005 to 2017. As such, they have increased their share of the nation’s total innovation employment from 17.6% to 22.8%. In contrast, the bottom 90% of metro areas (343 of them) lost share. As a result, fully one-third of the nation’s innovation jobs now reside in just 16 counties, and more than half are concentrated in 41 counties.

[jeezusisacasual]

Our economy is screwy. The retail sector is shedding jobs like crazy. The only reason the unemployment numbers are not going up is because they are being absorbed by the warehouse industry. Another low paying sector.

Not all retail segments are losing market share. There are now more dollar stores than McDonald’s and Starbucks combined. These stores are now killing local grocery stores that managed to survive Walmart and Amazon. The are replacing fresh produce with rows and rows of sugary drinks, candies, and processed foods high in salt and fat.

High paying R&D jobs are limited to a few metro areas. Here is an interesting study from Brookings Institute.

This is so very important. The amount of online traffic to retail outlets is still far below that of instore purchases which leads me to think that money is just not available to keep the retail economy moving forward. I am also very weary about the available credit to the majority of the movers of the economy ( Middle class and below ) which also helps my case over various corporations being over leveraged we are credit tapped out as a whole, the US for sure but i am willing to bet the majority of the western world.

Also given the economic metrics we have been seeing makes me believe that a minor trade agreement before the end of the year or a restart of QE 4 by the FED and its partners ( excluding the Bank of Japan due to them owning so many assets now ). I think that the Trump administration will take that as a win assuming China wants on board but prepare for more Money Printing with next to no inflation.

I also have a theory about how the FED and its partners have lost control on influencing inflation which is largely about it being in isolated hands not forcing market metrics to change and less about the overall dollar amount. I will go into detail more about this once i do a detailed write up over the coming weeks for the investment branch of the institution i work for .

[Zan15]

Well I guess we now know what goosed the economy and the gdp numbers way past expectations to a disappointing 2.1%.....and what are goosing the projected 4Q estimates.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...ember-67665253
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...of-fiscal-year

The Treasury Department reported Wednesday that the federal government took in $225 billion in tax and other revenue but spent a record $434 billion in November.

So far this budget year, the government is running a deficit of $343 billion, up 12% from a year earlier.
Outlays for military programs of the Department of Defense climbed 7 percent, or $8 billion


The federal deficit was $587 billion when President Trump took office in January 2017, and had ballooned to $984 billion in 2019.


343 billion dollars in two months...TWO....
Trillion dollars? Hell we might hit 1.5 trillion.

[jeezusisacasual]

Well I guess we now know what goosed the economy and the gdp numbers way past expectations to a disappointing 2.1%.....and what are goosing the projected 4Q estimates.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...ember-67665253
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...of-fiscal-year

The Treasury Department reported Wednesday that the federal government took in $225 billion in tax and other revenue but spent a record $434 billion in November.

So far this budget year, the government is running a deficit of $343 billion, up 12% from a year earlier.
Outlays for military programs of the Department of Defense climbed 7 percent, or $8 billion


The federal deficit was $587 billion when President Trump took office in January 2017, and had ballooned to $984 billion in 2019.


343 billion dollars in two months...TWO....
Trillion dollars? Hell we might hit 1.5 trillion.

Lets imagine a world where the USD is not the worlds reserve currency and how long do you think this sort of fiscal stupidity would last?

[D Luniz]

Just had the biggest trucking company bankruptcy in history occur, and that's not accounting for the record number of bankruptcy occurring in that industry since the start of the year. But nope, Dow is hitting a record so everything is fine.

[Dontrike]

Just had the biggest trucking company bankruptcy in history occur, and that's not accounting for the record number of bankruptcy occurring in that industry since the start of the year. But nope, Dow is hitting a record so everything is fine.

But everyone has stock and are just a few Dow attack points away from being a millionaire!

[Jeezy911]

Just had the biggest trucking company bankruptcy in history occur, and that's not accounting for the record number of bankruptcy occurring in that industry since the start of the year. But nope, Dow is hitting a record so everything is fine.

Going to be a lot of trucking company bankruptcies in the future coming. You realize this industry is basically Blockbuster video in 2005 right now?

[Fugus]

Going to be a lot of trucking company bankruptcies in the future coming. You realize this industry is basically Blockbuster video in 2005 right now?

I know what kinda poster you really are but that aside....

The trucking companies aren't going the way of blockbuster until they are forced to actually pay the full cost of the damage their vehicles are doing to the roads. Its the truckers themselves who are going the way of blockbuster, the trucks themselves will just keep on trucking without them.

[Zython]

I've invested in the markets since the 1980s. I've seen the market boom thru the 80s, the 90s, the 2000s, the 2010s. ALL the way up, every single year, people would cherry pick stats to argue the market is about to collapse when the market was clearly healthy and booming. They were all wrong.

What makes you different?

This is...factually untrue.

[Rasulis]

Going to be a lot of trucking company bankruptcies in the future coming. You realize this industry is basically Blockbuster video in 2005 right now?

Trucking is not remotely close to Blockbuster in 2005.

2017 was in fact a good year for trucking companies. Many companies doubled their profit margin. 2018 was even better. Trucking companies were borrowing to increase fleets, hire drivers and expand facilities.

Not once did they ask why business was suddenly that good. Turned out a big part of the increase in shipping volume in 2017 - 2018 was due of businesses frontloading in anticipation of the Chinese tariff. In 2019 businesses stopped frontloading, shipping volume went down, and overextended trucking companies went bankrupt. Railroad companies are in the same bind. Except they have deeper pockets.

[Breccia]

Just had the biggest trucking company bankruptcy in history occur, and that's not accounting for the record number of bankruptcy occurring in that industry since the start of the year. But nope, Dow is hitting a record so everything is fine.

A truckload giant just filed for bankruptcy, and it leaves nearly 3,000 truck drivers jobless

The trucking "bloodbath" of 2019 is taking another remarkably dire turn as the year draws to a close.

Indianapolis-based

So are you saying Indiana lost a...carrier?

Celadon, a truckload carrier that grossed $1 billion as recently as 2015, filed for bankruptcy on Dec. 9. It's poised to be the largest truckload bankruptcy in history, leading industry publication FreightWaves reported on Friday.

While the Chapter 11 filing implies that Celadon will restructure, the company is in fact shuttered. "We have diligently explored all possible options to restructure Celadon and keep business operations ongoing. However, a number of legacy and market headwinds made this impossible to achieve," CEO Paul Svindland said in a statement.

And the company's drivers and employees are getting slammed.

The bankruptcy has the potential to leave nearly 3,000 truck drivers stranded away from home. While the company has assured truck drivers that will not happen, some truck drivers have told Business Insider that they have had to take matters into their own hands to get home.

In a press briefing, spokesman Sean Spicer said that the trucking industry “has suffered greatly under Obamacare.”
No, that's not a sarcastic quote. That's actually what he said.

Celadon employs 2,500 truck drivers, and works with 380 owner-operators. The shuttering also leaves some 1,300 administrative employees, most of whom work in Celadon's Indianapolis headquarters, jobless right before the holidays.

An internal document shared with Business Insider revealed that employees lost health insurance before learning that the company was closing. They also will not receive unused vacation pay.

Celadon sent a message shortly after midnight on Dec. 9 informing truck drivers that the company was filing for Chapter 11 and that all loads in transit would be delivered, according to images shared with Business Insider. Celadon did not immediately respond to a Business Insider request for comment.

According to a federal filing, Celadon is seeking to pay its total 3,800 employees around $3.9 million in unpaid wages, along with more than $1 million in termination bonuses. The termination payment works out to about $267 per worker.

Sources told Business Insider that some Celadon truck drivers' Comdata fuel cards were already being turned off, leaving them unable to get home without spending serious cash on gas or arranging their own transport by car, plane, or bus.

Truckers are the canaries in the retail coal mine, about the best metaphor I can give to something Trump promised would prosper and has instead failed. Fewer goods to move means fewer truckers, but fewer goods to move also means fewer goods to sell. Considering the stock market and GDP underperforming, this is par for the course, and not a great sign for the 2019 and 2020 markets.

For more info, this up-to-date article contains the word "bloodbath".

[Zan15]

Going to be a lot of trucking company bankruptcies in the future coming. You realize this industry is basically Blockbuster video in 2005 right now?

Wait... Trucking is going to go digital....and have delivery through the internet??? So confused....

You must be attempting to maybe bring up automated driving which is still at least a decade or two away for Mass use......if they can even get past the legal liability issues.

[Dontrike]

Wait... Trucking is going to go digital....and have delivery through the internet??? So confused....

You must be attempting to maybe bring up automated driving which is still at least a decade or two away for Mass use......if they can even get past the legal liability issues.

Honestly I don't think self driving will be viable for another 25+ years.