Iranian General Sulemain and others reported killed in Baghdad airstrike

[Thekri]

I think your main concern should be what will be the reaction from the thin skin megalomaniac for all we know he may choose to nuke Iran tomorrow.

Well like I said in the post before this, this is the sort of thing that always escalates. Wars rarely go according to anyones plan. Usually the start when out of control egos get in each others face, and nobody backs down. We know the egos in question, and all the provocations are in place. It would take a very impressive diplomatic performance to stop a war right now, and I frankly don't see anyone with enough competence to provide that.

If we are all very lucky, it will be a limited sea and air campaign, and nothing else. What I really don't want is to see the Army and Marines go in. That will be a fucking nightmare. The air strikes are inevitable at this point.

And yes, you can save this post so 5 years from now when everyone is claiming they didn't support the Iran war in the beginning, you can see what my actual position was.

[Puupi]

Nasrallah literally warned in his speech that DOD personnel would be the targets other day.

Early reports suggesting it was Fateh class missiles(Fateh 110, Fateh 313, Zolfaghar) with a warhead of about 500kg.

Looks like Iranians annouced the attacks before they happened. That should have given people enough time to react and move indoors or away from exposed areas. Initial reports are no serious injuries but its pretty early.

How big of a boom does a 500kg warhead cause?

[mvaliz]

Warmongers gonna warmonger I guess? But seems in this day and age they need to pretend they aren't warmongering when they're warmongering.

Cubby's not a warmonger. He's actually quite a capable logician and well-versed in laws from my experience - one that unfortunately listened to Skroe's rhetoric when it came to this war-not-war >_<. I imagine he listened to it due to us being united against Dumbass Dump as Skroe was seemingly on-page with most of those things related to him at least.

[Draco-Onis]

Well like I said in the post before this, this is the sort of thing that always escalates. Wars rarely go according to anyones plan. Usually the start when out of control egos get in each others face, and nobody backs down. We know the egos in question, and all the provocations are in place. It would take a very impressive diplomatic performance to stop a war right now, and I frankly don't see anyone with enough competence to provide that.

If we are all very lucky, it will be a limited sea and air campaign, and nothing else. What I really don't want is to see the Army and Marines go in. That will be a fucking nightmare. The air strikes are inevitable at this point.

And yes, you can save this post so 5 years from now when everyone is claiming they didn't support the Iran war in the beginning, you can see what my actual position was.

Considering the state department is basically Pompeo who is dying to go to war in Iran for regime change the odds that diplomacy wins the day are slim to none.

[Drutt]

Friend of mine just reported a bunch of F-16s leaving the US airbase near him.

He lives in Turkey.

[Wyrt]

Cubby's not a warmonger. He's actually quite a capable logician and well-versed in laws from my experience - one that unfortunately listened to Skroe's rhetoric when it came to this war-not-war >_<. I imagine he listened to it due to us being united against Dumbass Dump as Skroe was seemingly on-page with most of those things related to him at least.

Skroe being wrong in regards to war is pretty much his most consistent attribute after being against Trump.

[Puupi]

Everyone remembers where they were and what went through in their life that day when 9/11 happened. I wonder if this night (for me) will be the same.

[Poe]

Friend of mine just reported a bunch of F-16s leaving the US airbase near him.

He lives in Turkey.

Well they Iran just fired 10 missiles at an airbase with US troops in Iraq so I think it's war time.

[Thekri]

How big of a boom does a 500kg warhead cause?

Big, but not crazy big. To provide some context on how all this works, this is the most basic form of bunker that the US has on their bases.



Ussually they have some sort of sandbags or HESCOs around them. They have these bunkers EVERYWHERE. Literally everywhere across the base, they have hundreds of them on a base the size of Al-Asad. They require there to be enough of these bunkers that everyone can be inside one in 15 seconds, so there is one approximately ever 100 meters or so, with dozens outside chow halls and such.

These bunkers are basically invulnerable to the 107mm rockets that the bases usually get attacked with, those have about a 1kg warhead, and a direct hit on the bunker would leave everyone inside completely fine. For a 500kg warhead, the bunker won't survive a direct hit, but it hits about 100 meters away, everyone inside is likely to have a concussion and broken eardrums, but they will be alive. You can reasonably count on every single person on that base to be in one of these, so casualties should be very light to none.

[Puupi]

Big, but not crazy big. To provide some context on how all this works, this is the most basic form of bunker that the US has on their bases.


Ussually they have some sort of sandbags or HESCOs around them. They have these bunkers EVERYWHERE. Literally everywhere across the base, they have hundreds of them on a base the size of Al-Asad. They require there to be enough of these bunkers that everyone can be inside one in 15 seconds, so there is one approximately ever 100 meters or so, with dozens outside chow halls and such.

These bunkers are basically invulnerable to the 107mm rockets that the bases usually get attacked with, those have about a 1kg warhead, and a direct hit on the bunker would leave everyone inside completely fine. For a 500kg warhead, the bunker won't survive a direct hit, but it hits about 100 meters away, everyone inside is likely to have a concussion and broken eardrums, but they will be alive. You can reasonably count on every single person on that base to be in one of these, so casualties should be very light to none.

So the kill zone is something like ~50 meters?

[jonnysensible]

You know Trump wont take this well, he loves one-upmanship.

Oh well I did my part in the Iraq war, ready to do it again.

[Xeones]

Well they Iran just fired 10 missiles at an airbase with US troops in Iraq so I think it's war time.

o.0

Thats what makes it war time? WW1 started with an assassination. Assassinating a top political leader of a nation is an act of war.

[Puupi]

o.0

Thats what makes it war time? WW1 started with an assassination. Assassinating a top political leader of a nation is an act of war.

Depends on who orders the assassination. A lone gunman killing a top political leader isn't.

[Wyrt]

Considering the state department is basically Pompeo who is dying to go to war in Iran for regime change the odds that diplomacy wins the day are slim to none.

The US did that before. Except it was overthrowing Iran's democracy for a pro-US dictator who later got overthrown and US/Iran relations have been awful ever since.

US regime change does not have a very good track record. Especially since a fair number of these "regimes" were not regimes in the first place, but rather democracies that did things the US didn't agree with.

[Edge-]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/texas-...ks-in-two-days

It's not just missile attacks, apparently there were 10K attempts to break into various Texas state agency systems over the past few days.

[Poe]

o.0

Thats what makes it war time? WW1 started with an assassination. Assassinating a top political leader of a nation is an act of war.

Yes but prior to the most recent attack, the US was not acting as if it was a "war" otherwise we would have struck multiple Iranian targets by now. I'm not arguing that killing the general was an act of war, I'm simply stating that prior to this, the US was not actively attacking Iran. Now both sides will be actively attacking each other.

[Thekri]

So the kill zone is something like ~50 meters?

The kill zone is more like ~650 meters if you aren't in a bunker. If you are in a bunker, within 50 meters the concussive force will kill you even if the shrapnel doesn't. These are very serious size weapons.

But the other bit of context is the size of the bases in question. They are VERY sparsely manned relative to the square kilometers of the base. Most of the space totally empty, with Runways, taxiways, and so forth. So the odds of something landing close to soldiers is pretty low, unless the guidance on these missiles is good enough to be targeting specific buildings (Which on paper they are, but who knows in circumstances like this.)

[Puupi]

The kill zone is more like ~650 meters if you aren't in a bunker. If you are in a bunker, within 50 meters the concussive force will kill you even if the shrapnel doesn't. These are very serious size weapons.

But the other bit of context is the size of the bases in question. They are VERY sparsely manned relative to the square kilometers of the base. Most of the space totally empty, with Runways, taxiways, and so forth. So the odds of something landing close to soldiers is pretty low, unless the guidance on these missiles is good enough to be targeting specific buildings (Which on paper they are, but who knows in circumstances like this.)

Saw a photo of the air base somewhere, didn't look very sparse.

[Draco-Onis]

The US did that before. Except it was overthrowing Iran's democracy for a pro-US dictator who later got overthrown and US/Iran relations have been awful ever since.

US regime change does not have a very good track record. Especially since a fair number of these "regimes" were not regimes in the first place, but rather democracies that did things the US didn't agree with.

This has been John Bolton and Mike Pompeo's goal in life full scale war with Iran, I am sure these guys are popping the bubbly right now it's not their friends and families lives at risk. The secretary of defense must also be living it up his Raytheon stock is through the roof.

[jonnysensible]

Second wave of missiles has begun.