1. #321
    Quote Originally Posted by xenogear3 View Post
    The hospital is nothing special. It just wants to show how powerful China is !
    Yea, CCP trolls are all over internet doing the hospital propaganda.
    China has been generous so lets hope GLA doesn't succeed.

  2. #322
    I am Murloc! shadowmouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC2
    Okay but I get the feeling you want to shutdown all criticism of China and the government as it relates to this issue.
    Your feelz are projection. I seldom bother to mention government in posts, and for a very simple reason. The one Chinese politician I do agree with on at least one point is Deng Xiaoping: "It doesn’t matter if a cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice”. Anywhere I have lived or traveled, that's what it comes down to. Governments are there to keep water running, roads built, and all the rest of the stuff. Some do it more directly, some less, and in each case there are people who complain and people who are happy, with a large crowd of "it depends" in the middle. For quite a few posts in this forum though, I will comment when somebody is throwing around random internet garbage because that's what it is, uninformed or flat malicious garbage. Later that day, I'll be explaining to Chinese that no I do not own a gun and have never shot anyone, no Americans don't still hold lynchings, and their own bundle of bias and misinformation off of Weibo and what Aunt Chen says she heard from the mother of a friend whose son lives in Canada. I do both for the same reason, I started getting hauled around the world when I was a kid, and today my interests are cross culture communication and some related areas.

    Quote Originally Posted by PC2
    In the West we ...
    ... need to get off of our high horses and stop thinking we're inherently superior. There you sit, typing away about "the West" like you think you are explaining something to someone Chinese. I'm not only from the West, I'm likely a good bit older. I recently posted a quick rundown of cultural neuroscience that addresses this problem, showing that cultural differences go right down to the neural level, part of the East/West divide goes to not seeing things through the same filters and it is so fundamental a difference it shows up in brain studies.

    Quote Originally Posted by PC2
    As far as that line I don't agree with "sticking to the facts" though because with China
    And you show your true colors, you aren't here to post about a virus because the virus isn't just in China, no you're here because the politics sub forum garbage fire just won't stay there. Leave it there and stop trying to drag it in.

    That's exactly why I said stick to facts, because the virus didn't get the memo it was supposed to stay in China. It's a virus. It is going to behave in much the same way anywhere in the world. The "but in China" excuse is just that, pointless speculation which you claim to be above. Thousands of people traveled from Wuhan, many traveled in airplanes which are a good environment for passing diseases, and each of those may have exposed others to the virus. Even with a two week incubation period, it would seem logical that if this virus is both contagious beyond what CDC and WHO say, we should have seen signs of that in the spread of the virus outside of China. That's measurable, "but maybe" isn't.

    Quote Originally Posted by Doctor Amadeus
    The Panic has only just begun.
    Pretty much. The ugly part is going to be round 2. Where is this going to go now that lines have been crossed, rules are going to be put in place and those things don't go away easily. Are we going to have thermal scanning and quarantine take their place beside getting your nuts patted by TSA? Ten years later, is that going to be a new norm? With airlines already prone to pinch pennies, is this going to be the excuse to cut back on services? I'm probably just a cynic.
    With COVID-19 making its impact on our lives, I have decided that I shall hang in there for my remaining days, skip some meals, try to get children to experiment with making henna patterns on their skin, and plant some trees. You know -- live, fast, dye young, and leave a pretty copse. I feel like I may not have that quite right.

  3. #323
    Fluffy Kitten Remilia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NED funded View Post
    Seasonal flu has a mortality rate of <0.01%. Coronovirus mortality is like 2%

    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/

    Dude is right, if the number of people that got infected by the flu got infected by Coronavirus there would be a whole lot more of dead people.
    I just want to point out that death rate shouldn't be calculated by death/case but death/(death+recovered) cause you don't know what the result is for the currently infected. Early numbers will be skewed atm anyways cause dying is faster than recovering. If using official numbers, the death rate is 43% in China atm (361 death 475 recovered). Though official CCP numbers will more likely be misleading anyways.

    One number you can look at are people in critical condition if you want to go by case.
    Last edited by Remilia; 2020-02-03 at 04:33 AM.

  4. #324
    I am Murloc! shadowmouse's Avatar
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    @Remilia Interesting.

    I haven't seen anyone using that calculation. To put things into perspective, is there any idea how something like seasonal flu or MERS would stack up using this? Or Ebola I guess, since that has been studied and calculated to heck.

    If I understand, this is sort of taking a Schrödinger's cat view. Pending cases are the cat in the box. We look at one side and there is death, lots of people are acting as the cat, the other side is recovery. By this calculation, the cat has a 43% chance of being dead when we find out. Remember, I was a Liberal Arts type and my ability to do higher math has been impaired since I lost some toes.

    BTW, thanks. You're the first person I've seen who seems to have some numbers on recovery rates.
    With COVID-19 making its impact on our lives, I have decided that I shall hang in there for my remaining days, skip some meals, try to get children to experiment with making henna patterns on their skin, and plant some trees. You know -- live, fast, dye young, and leave a pretty copse. I feel like I may not have that quite right.

  5. #325
    The Unstoppable Force PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shadowmouse View Post
    ... need to get off of our high horses and stop thinking we're inherently superior.
    I'm not saying Western culture is superior except as it relates to one thing, which is that liberal democracy is the best system and it just happened to arise in the West first. If you disagree with liberal democracy then it's your prerogative but you should at least state which alternative system you think is the best.

    Quote Originally Posted by shadowmouse View Post
    That's exactly why I said stick to facts, because the virus didn't get the memo it was supposed to stay in China.
    I'm saying I don't trust the facts and numbers they release. If you trust the facts they release that is fine, other people are free to trust them but I'm not convinced as of right now.

  6. #326
    Merely a Setback breadisfunny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I'm not saying Western culture is superior except as it relates to one thing, which is that liberal democracy is the best system and it just happened to arise in the West first. If you disagree with liberal democracy then it's your prerogative but you should at least state which alternative system you think is the best.



    I'm saying I don't trust the facts and numbers they release. If you trust the facts they release that is fine, other people are free to trust them but I'm not convinced as of right now.
    that title below your name is aptly fitting for what you just posted. like seriously you don't trust the official numbers? wtf? from now on i'm going to imagine you as dale gribble from king of the hill. cause this is like conspiracy level stuff right here. also are you saying you don't trust the cdc numbers the chinese governments numbers or both? if it's the latter.....*backs away slowly*. i could see if you said you don't think the numbers are accurate but your saying you don't trust them at all.
    Last edited by breadisfunny; 2020-02-03 at 06:51 AM.
    r.i.p. alleria. 1997-2017. blizzard ruined alleria forever. blizz assassinated alleria's character and appearance.
    i will never forgive you for this blizzard.

  7. #327
    I am Murloc! shadowmouse's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC2
    If you disagree with liberal democracy then it's your prerogative but you should at least state which alternative system you think is the best.
    No, I'm posting in Gen-OT, the politics forum is over thataway.

    Since you can't get it through your head though, I don't care if it is a black cat or a white cat, I also post in "what is your favorite" whatever threads with the caveat that I'm not a person who does numbered lists. Does it get the job done? Then it is good enough.

    Since you don't seem to be willing to find the thread, I'll cross post:
    Ambady thinks cultural neuro-science does advance understanding. Take the me/mom finding, which, she argues, "attests to the strength of the overlap between self and [people close to you] in collectivistic cultures and the separation in individualistic cultures. It is important to push the analysis to the level of the brain." Especially when it shows how fundamental cultural differences are—so fundamental, perhaps, that "universal" notions such as human rights, democracy, and the like may be no such thing.
    Source: https://www.newsweek.com/how-differe...pe-brain-75289

    See: https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...to-avoid-virus post #19

    Quote Originally Posted by PC2
    I'm saying I don't trust the facts and numbers they release.
    That's fine, they don't trust you either. I'm busily trying to assure freaked out students that the experimental treatment of the virus and US aid offers (because of guanxi favors are viewed with skepticism because there is an associated obligation) in no way prove that the US engineered this to strike at the Chinese economy and profiteer by "saving" people from the crisis they made.

    Personally, I'm not so sure. The timing is awfully convenient and strikes at a core of Chinese tradition, while the treatment is a retread of a failed Ebola treatment that has links to the US military. /troll See how that works?
    With COVID-19 making its impact on our lives, I have decided that I shall hang in there for my remaining days, skip some meals, try to get children to experiment with making henna patterns on their skin, and plant some trees. You know -- live, fast, dye young, and leave a pretty copse. I feel like I may not have that quite right.

  8. #328
    Quote Originally Posted by Saninicus View Post
    WHO loves them some president xi cock it seems. Still wondering what the real numbers of infected are. Same with the number of dead. Just seems off that china shuts down entire cities and hospitals are being overwhelmed when just a few thousand are infected.
    They can't and shouldn't announce the real numbers if its more.
    The living will lose hope in that case. Suicides or rebellion may happen.
    They saying 40-50 dead each day to keep people at homes and also cured ones to keep hopes up.
    We can blame China for being slow and incautious but we can't blame them about numbers.

  9. #329
    Fluffy Kitten Remilia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shadowmouse View Post
    @Remilia Interesting.

    I haven't seen anyone using that calculation. To put things into perspective, is there any idea how something like seasonal flu or MERS would stack up using this? Or Ebola I guess, since that has been studied and calculated to heck.

    If I understand, this is sort of taking a Schrödinger's cat view. Pending cases are the cat in the box. We look at one side and there is death, lots of people are acting as the cat, the other side is recovery. By this calculation, the cat has a 43% chance of being dead when we find out. Remember, I was a Liberal Arts type and my ability to do higher math has been impaired since I lost some toes.

    BTW, thanks. You're the first person I've seen who seems to have some numbers on recovery rates.
    For official numbers https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...navirus-cases/
    The 43% is really only current numbers. Realistically that number will reduce as more people recover as supposedly it takes about two weeks(?) to recover where as people that die will die before then.

    Past events are kind of a done deal and death rates are already set. It only matters if the disease is ongoing cause as you put it, Schrodinger's cat kind of thing. We don't know what happens with the rest of the patients. For example if we had a disease inflicting 10000 people and 200 died within 3 days, that'd be a 2% death rate if we just go death/case. If however in the next week of those 10000 another 800 died, it would be a 10% death rate, which is why an ongoing disease shouldn't use death/case. Once the virus has run it's course then we could just use death/case cause all cases should be run through. As noted though, it'll take people longer to recover than to die so even now due to the low amount of completed (I guess?) cases it'd be a heavily skewed number till more data has come through.
    MERS would be the most similar type of virus which was 35% or so death rate. SARS being another similar was about 15% death rate. Also I'd take the death rate from China with skepticism is that during SARS they reported a death rate of 10% where as every other place reported around 15%. That and China reports the flu death last year was 143 which is absurdly low.
    Last edited by Remilia; 2020-02-03 at 10:40 AM.

  10. #330
    I am Murloc! shadowmouse's Avatar
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    @Remilia Thanks!
    With COVID-19 making its impact on our lives, I have decided that I shall hang in there for my remaining days, skip some meals, try to get children to experiment with making henna patterns on their skin, and plant some trees. You know -- live, fast, dye young, and leave a pretty copse. I feel like I may not have that quite right.

  11. #331
    Legendary! Ihavewaffles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zatheyll View Post
    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...virus-answered



    - - - Updated - - -



    China is the only country on Earth that can lockdown this many people and do it as efficiently as they have. That can be a good thing or a bad thing depending on your viewpoint, but you can be damn sure no country would ever do a lockdown like this, which has never been seen in history.

    There are faults with how local authorities in Wuhan tried to hide it early on, but the response since then has been more than any other country would be capable of doing. China sacrifices many personal freedoms to have the logistical and social grasp that it does, letting it build hospitals as fast as it currently is, shut down entire metropolises, and order everyone in the country to wear face masks.

    Feel free to say China could have done better, but try and think of how you or the people around you would react if tomorrow your country blocked you from leaving your town or city, shut down all roads and fining or arresting you if you drove your car, and forced you to wear a mask going out anywhere. I doubt you would be all that happy personally, even if it is for the "greater good".
    I think it's called martial law, n all countries can apply it..

  12. #332
    Quote Originally Posted by Ihavewaffles View Post
    I think it's called martial law, n all countries can apply it..
    The difference and ultimately the point is, not every nation can do that on such a scale in such a short period of time without facing a significant level of backlash or resistance.
    "My successes are my own, but my failures are due to extremist leftist liberals" - Party of Personal Responsibility

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  13. #333
    Legendary! Ihavewaffles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    Okay but I get the feeling you want to shutdown all criticism of China and the government as it relates to this issue. Which it's not even in China's best interest to remain 100% calm and optimistic because without the right level of concern we won't be driven to find the solutions as fast as possible. In the West we celebrate self-criticism because that's what improves our society and there can't be improvement if people think the government is doing a great job.
    And then the SJWs came along

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by PosPosPos View Post
    The difference and ultimately the point is, not every nation can do that on such a scale in such a short period of time without facing a significant level of backlash or resistance.
    The thing about martial law, u can ignore criticism during its duration n stomp people.

  14. #334
    Quote Originally Posted by PosPosPos View Post
    The difference and ultimately the point is, not every nation can do that on such a scale in such a short period of time without facing a significant level of backlash or resistance.
    You sound like there is no backlash for China.
    61 countries stopped Chinese to enter their countries. This includes North Korea and Iran which just received billions of dollars aid last year.
    The reason is 100 dead from a flu? Is that a little bit over-reacting?

    China just lockdown another 8 million people city yesterday.
    The lockdown of WuHan didn't help the spread. It is a mistake.

  15. #335
    Quote Originally Posted by Raspberry Lemon View Post
    has any young healthy people died from it?
    I think this is a trap that Chinese government fall for it.
    At first, it thought that it only kills old poor people.
    This is a perfect solution for social security problem !

    It doesn't work that way.
    If you let the plague spread, the virus will evolve and start to kill young people.

  16. #336
    Quote Originally Posted by Raspberry Lemon View Post
    has any young healthy people died from it?
    Don’t know the health status of the person, but first death outside of China was a guy who was only 44, that’s still fairly young.

    I can’t find the article I read before, but I believe it stated he had severe pneumonia, after treatment he was stable and seemed to be recovering, but then within a day or two he died.

  17. #337
    Warchief Zatheyll's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by shadowmouse View Post
    @Remilia Interesting.

    I haven't seen anyone using that calculation. To put things into perspective, is there any idea how something like seasonal flu or MERS would stack up using this? Or Ebola I guess, since that has been studied and calculated to heck.

    If I understand, this is sort of taking a Schrödinger's cat view. Pending cases are the cat in the box. We look at one side and there is death, lots of people are acting as the cat, the other side is recovery. By this calculation, the cat has a 43% chance of being dead when we find out. Remember, I was a Liberal Arts type and my ability to do higher math has been impaired since I lost some toes.

    BTW, thanks. You're the first person I've seen who seems to have some numbers on recovery rates.

    Depending on where you look you can find details on severity of the cases. For example, in Guangdong as of the other day, out of 535 cases, there were 11 recoveries, 0 deaths, 50 in a critical state, and 18 in a severe state.



    Though it's important to account that Guangdong has potentially a fraction of the cases that Hubei has. One big problem Hubei is facing is that medical equipment and staff is limiting them in how fast they can check potential cases, which could be multiple times greater than the current confirmed (in the high tens of thousands if all come back positive from what official reports are saying).

    It has also been stressed by experts that there can be many more cases of people who have the coronavirus but are not showing symptoms great enough to warrant going to the hospital over (minor cough/fever). This can mean hospitals are only seeing the absolute worst of it, which is skewing perceptions, but can also be bad in the ability for it to spread if people who have it aren't showing symptoms strong enough to quarantine themselves, which I believe is a large reason why they locked down Hubei to the extent it currently is. If they can get people to stop going outside for two weeks, they can help rule out those who don't need to go to the hospital from spreading it.

  18. #338
    Quote Originally Posted by Remilia View Post
    For official numbers https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/0...navirus-cases/
    The 43% is really only current numbers. Realistically that number will reduce as more people recover as supposedly it takes about two weeks(?) to recover where as people that die will die before then.

    Past events are kind of a done deal and death rates are already set. It only matters if the disease is ongoing cause as you put it, Schrodinger's cat kind of thing. We don't know what happens with the rest of the patients. For example if we had a disease inflicting 10000 people and 200 died within 3 days, that'd be a 2% death rate if we just go death/case. If however in the next week of those 10000 another 800 died, it would be a 10% death rate, which is why an ongoing disease shouldn't use death/case. Once the virus has run it's course then we could just use death/case cause all cases should be run through. As noted though, it'll take people longer to recover than to die so even now due to the low amount of completed (I guess?) cases it'd be a heavily skewed number till more data has come through.
    MERS would be the most similar type of virus which was 35% or so death rate. SARS being another similar was about 15% death rate. Also I'd take the death rate from China with skepticism is that during SARS they reported a death rate of 10% where as every other place reported around 15%. That and China reports the flu death last year was 143 which is absurdly low.
    Another thing to take note of is of the 17,300 cases in China, 2,296 cases are in serious or critical condition. AND this corona virus has already out killed the SARS virus in China which was active for 9mo, which had a 10% (according to China), 15% worldwide. Yes there were less REPORTED cases of SARS, but this virus is being considered more contagious, so even if it is less deadly, which it may not be, as I agree with how you calculate the death rate, it is spreading faster and thus has killed more already.

  19. #339
    I think the high casualty rate is more endemic to China than the virus itself.

    China's health practices are significantly lower than the rest of the developed world. They don't have soap everywhere - in restaurants, in bathrooms, baby changing rooms and so on - like we do. The old generation is ignorant of the importance of personal hygiene. Littering is common. Smoking is prevalent. Furthermore, China's horrendous air pollution weakens the body's immune system, and the thick air particles are ripe for carrying viruses. Also, lots of people and large families living together in dirty conditions.

    Doesn't help that the Chinese people have to rely on the CCP of all people to help them, who helped perpetrate the crisis in the first place. The Chinese Red Cross has also been notoriously mismanaged. The government is trying to cover up the problem, rather than giving the facts to people straight.

    I'm expecting quite a few cases to develop her in the US, but I do not anticipate a pandemic. Praying for those in China!

  20. #340
    I am Murloc! shadowmouse's Avatar
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    Well, I suppose this is a half a loaf is better than none situation.
    In a Monday meeting with top Chinese officials, President Xi Jinping called the coronavirus outbreak a “major test” for China’s government, according to an article in state media outlet Xinhua.

    "The outbreak is a major test of China's system and capacity for governance, and we must sum up the experience and draw a lesson from it," Xi said, according to Xinhua."

    The meeting resulted in a call to improve China's public health and emergency management system, an “overhaul of environmental sanitation,” and a “crackdown on illegal wildlife markets and trade.”

    Some context: Activists and international experts have long called for greater regulation on China's wildlife trade, which has led to previous outbreaks as well.
    Source: https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-ne...-20/index.html

    It doesn't solve the situation by any means, but it should lay the groundwork for getting some things fixed. Now, if they could just get Beijingers to understand that hot/cold/wet/dry may be fine for TCM but germs are a real thing ... and routinely spitting all over the damned place spreads them. Major no spitting campaigns, public sanitation workers on the streets reminding people, and huge fines have all been a feature of every response since SARS and it has always been ignored.

    Edit:
    Quote Originally Posted by Val the Moofia Boss
    I think the high casualty rate is more endemic to China than the virus itself.
    I agree. Apparently we were writing at the same time.

    The TCM vs Western medicine thing is, to my mind, a huge problem. Hopefully this will dial back the increasing pressure to use more TCM approaches. Overcrowding in hospitals is another problem. There are just so darned many people that it is sort of like WoW at the start of a popular expansion -- server capacity that was good enough for normal load gets overwhelmed. Hospitals are usually crowded under regular conditions. The tradition of having groups of family and friends stay beside a patient and help with their care adds to that, and with a disease like this one that model is a problem.

    You nailed a number of points but while I'm bitching, let me add one more. Just because it is a kid, that doesn't mean they cannot transmit diseases. Please, stop with the split crotch pants and having even older kids piss in public to show you won the "we had a boy" lottery.
    Last edited by shadowmouse; 2020-02-04 at 03:43 AM.
    With COVID-19 making its impact on our lives, I have decided that I shall hang in there for my remaining days, skip some meals, try to get children to experiment with making henna patterns on their skin, and plant some trees. You know -- live, fast, dye young, and leave a pretty copse. I feel like I may not have that quite right.

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