I mean, you’re obviously right, but I don’t know why you keep saying Sanders is going to narrowly win California, and lose Texas big. In all likelihood he’ll win California by a similar margin than Biden wins Texas. Those two will be about a wash. All the other Southern states are where Biden will eventually pull ahead like you’re describing.
But if Biden ends up 4th here, and another similar showing in NH, people could freak out and shift to Pete or Bloomberg as the main option against Bernie. In that scenario, Bernie doesn’t lose any of these states by as much as he’d lose to Biden. Bernie wins easily if it’s somehow not Biden.