New Hampshire Primary 2020 Megathread

[Milchshake]

A straight up primary this time! Odds on how many people declare victory this time?

Primary noun
An election in which qualified voters nominate or express a preference for a particular candidate or group of candidates for political office, choose party officials, or select delegates for a party convention

2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary
February 11, 2020, with the vast majority of polling places closed by 7 p.m. and a small number of cities allowed to close at 8 p.m. In the semi-closed primary, candidates must meet a viability threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. The 24 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention are allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of the 24 pledged delegates, 8 each are allocated to each of the state's 2 congressional districts and another 3 are allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 5 at-large pledged delegates. These delegate totals do not account for pledged delegate bonuses or penalties from timing or clustering.

[bmjclark]

In the semi-closed primary, candidates must meet a viability threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable.

Can someone explain what exactly this means? I was under the impression you needed 15% statewide but this doesn't seem to be the case here?

Either way, despite the fact that Biden has been trying to downplay his upcoming loss here, i feel like it's going to be devastating for his campaign. He plummeted in the polls after Iowa and this certainly won't help his case. Especially considering some polls have him in 5th

[Milchshake]

NH Secretary of State Gardner's official prediction: 420,000-voter turnout for primary this Tuesday.
Secretary of State says crowded Democratic field will attract more undeclared voters than the GOP contest.

2016 attracted 542,933 ballots -a record.
2008, had 529,711 ballots cast.

So a prediction similar to Iowa, lower voter enthusiastic than previous highs.

[Omega10]

NH Secretary of State Gardner's official prediction: 420,000-voter turnout for primary this Tuesday.
Secretary of State says crowded Democratic field will attract more undeclared voters than the GOP contest.

2016 attracted 542,933 ballots -a record.
2008, had 529,711 ballots cast.

So a prediction similar to Iowa, lower voter enthusiastic than previous highs.

20% fewer democratic votes across the board = republican landslide later this year.

[Masark]

20% fewer democratic votes across the board = republican landslide later this year.

Those numbers are total across both parties. The vast majority of the 100k drop is going to be on the Republican side.

Turnout for the Democratic primary in 2016 was just under 250k.

[beanman12345]

Amy is now polling in third place. Didn't see that coming.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[Edge-]

Amy is now polling in third place. Didn't see that coming.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

In two polls -

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ent-primary-d/

She's still well behind in the rest. She's getting a boost from Iowa, but it doesn't look like it's enough for her to gain too much momentum.

[Shadowferal]

I barely know her perspectives...or how she differs from others.

[beanman12345]

In two polls -

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ent-primary-d/

She's still well behind in the rest. She's getting a boost from Iowa, but it doesn't look like it's enough for her to gain too much momentum.

oh yeah nationally she's way behind, not even breaking double digits, and well behind pete and sanders in NH, but it seems her good debate performance last week is helping her in the state.

[bmjclark]

Poor Biden's in 5th in some polls. That most recent poll shows Bernie up 8% nationally too. Didn't expect Iowa to hurt Biden this badly tbh.

[Seiklis]

Poor Biden's in 5th in some polls. That most recent poll shows Bernie up 8% nationally too. Didn't expect Iowa to hurt Biden this badly tbh.

Warren in 4th is more devastating for her

If she ends 5th the establishment is gonna really have to start begging her to stay in

The only shot they have of beating Bernie is if Warren stays in

[beanman12345]

Warren in 4th is more devastating for her

If she ends 5th the establishment is gonna really gonna have to start begging her to stay in

The only shot they have of beating Bernie is if Warren stays in

Begging might not be enough. She pulled 1/2 million in ads from SC and Nevada, she might not be able to afford to stay in much longer even if she wanted to, at least not w/o dropping a lot of staff first. Granted her staff right now is huge, the optics of it will be almost as bad as coming in 5th in NH.

[mvaliz]

Warren in 4th is more devastating for her

If she ends 5th the establishment is gonna really gonna have to start begging her to stay in

The only shot they have of beating Bernie is if Warren stays in

What? Is this yet another trollpost or something?

Dude, she's been buddy-buddy with Bernie for the past 4+ years. They've been touring together, giving lectures together! Their policies are near-identical.

I'm still betting dollars-to-donuts that they both went into this race putting each other on the short-list for being the other's VP when this is over.

[Blur4stuff]

I think a number of former Biden supporters tried Pete on for size and are now sampling Klobuchar after becoming aware of how troublesome of a candidate Pete would be.

[draynay]

What? Is this yet another trollpost or something?

Dude, she's been buddy-buddy with Bernie for the past 4+ years. They've been touring together, giving lectures together! Their policies are near-identical.

I'm still betting dollars-to-donuts that they both went into this race putting each other on the short-list for being the other's VP when this is over.

I think the point is that if she drops and her voters flock to Bernie, he may become unassailable as the leading candidate, which establishment democrats would not favor.

[DarkTZeratul]

I'm still betting dollars-to-donuts that they both went into this race putting each other on the short-list for being the other's VP when this is over.

That would be a terrible idea for multiple reasons, the biggest of which are that they do very little to expand each other's audience and they can do more good in the Senate than the VP seat.

[Shadowferal]

Just hours to go, New Hampshire primary voters still can't make up their minds

New Hampshire’s voters are, of course, notoriously picky — spoiled, some would say — as a result of the attention they get every four years. But this year’s indecision appears to go deeper, with many voters appearing almost paralyzed, not just by the breadth of choices they face, but by the weight of the stakes as they struggle to find a candidate they believe can beat President Donald Trump.

The number of Democratic primary voters who report uncertainty about their choice is significantly higher than four years ago, when the primary featured a relatively straightforward binary decision between Vermont Sen. Sanders and former secretary of State Hillary Clinton, said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University poll, which has repeatedly surveyed voters here.

Fewer than half the state’s voters in Monmouth’s most recent survey said they had their minds firmly made up. By contrast, about 60% said so four years ago.

---------------------

Decisions...decisions....eeny..meeny...miney...moe...

[Milchshake]

NH is close enough to NYC that the brooklyn podcast set can come out to canvass for Bernie, which is a big advantage for Buttigieg.

I'm telling you, Pete's not my first choice, he's 5th at this point, but he is one helluva leader when it comes to his team. They are the nicest, most effective ambassadors in the game. My hat's off to him for that.

By damaging Warren and Kamala so early, Bernie cleared the field for Buttigieg <irony>.

[Cthulhu 2020]

What? Is this yet another trollpost or something?

Dude, she's been buddy-buddy with Bernie for the past 4+ years. They've been touring together, giving lectures together! Their policies are near-identical.

I'm still betting dollars-to-donuts that they both went into this race putting each other on the short-list for being the other's VP when this is over.

It's just the Bernie Bros again, they hate Warren since she's slightly more centrist than Bernie. Bernie and Warren are friends. Bernie's cult rabidly hates her.

[beanman12345]

It's just the Bernie Bros again, they hate Warren since she's slightly more centrist than Bernie. Bernie and Warren are friends. Bernie's cult rabidly hates her.

Nah it's just piss poor reading comprehension on your part. Guy just wants to consolidate the base.