Humankind has gone downhill ever since the invention of the wheel...
Humankind has gone downhill ever since the invention of the wheel...
If the goal is to walk towards a Star Trek style way of life then yes technology is a fantastic vehicle for that movement ( i know great war etc happened along the way ) but if we are moving towards a corporate structure where the whims of the wealthy are deemed more applicable and given priority over the ails of the common man then i would rather we course correct before going forward.
People think of automation services is a problem now wait until the next large scale economic pull back and corporations along with government services are incentivized to reduce labor metrics by any means. I can actually see a harsh style of austerity given to the American populace and with how stupid / misguided a very very very large section of America is they will cheer it on.
So yes if we can get our ducks in a row and no if we can not.
strange question. technology is survival.
@Mihalik Good points overall, I just have two couple quibbles.
One vital thing that you absolutely must avoid is reasoning about the future based on generalizing historical numbers. (See avatar and sig fallacy)
Trends could have been happening for thousands of years and it would have no effect whatsoever on how automation and technology will effect the jobs going into the future. Because no amount of automating past jobs means that future jobs will be automatable at the same rate. Whether or not automation of new jobs happens slower, the same, or faster, is 100% entirely independent of the historical trend. Not to mention that kind of historical data can't tell us anything at all about the entirely new jobs and industries that can be created in the next decade, the decade after that, and so on. Anybody who tells you that they know what the future of the job market looks like and what the future of work looks like is a charlatan.
Last edited by PC2; 2020-02-22 at 08:15 PM.
Of course it's good. Anyone that thinks otherwise is an idiot.
That's a massive asinine spin on the appeal to probability fallacy. While you cannot make certain predictions and changes in trends can alter future outcomes your best bet for making any preparation for the future is based on past patterns.
It is why I specifically said "if the trend keeps" (English is hard, I know), and why I also mentioned there's no reason I could see why the trend wouldn't hold.
Fact is the trend for the past roughly 250 years has been that low skilled labor is replaced by automation. The trend never changed simply accelerated. The acceleration of the trend is another thing that has held consistently over the past 250 years. What we got bailed out by when it comes to keeping people employed was the shift from a production economy to a services based economy, and while automation has mostly focused on production, it is now also increasingly focused on the services sector.
Your argument is basically this.
-People in burning houses typically die.
Your reply to this.
-We cannot make future predictions based past patterns, thus next time you find yourself in a burning house, you should just sit still, you might be the exception to the past patterns.
Furthermore even admitting your premise you could in equal measure say that the trend of low skilled jobs being replaced by automation will not slow down or stop but would rather massively and explosively accelerate.
I'm not some luddite and I don't think we can make exact predictions about the future, but as someone who actually runs a business and who works in an industry where the rapid incorporation of new technologies, systems and equipment combined with cost reduction is a competitive necessity I pay attention to trends, and we actually invest quite a bit in trend analysis.
But that doesn't change the fact that I fucking have to recognize that demand for low skilled labor is dropping in most areas and that people who are stuck in that job category are fucked in the near future and that is a political, social and economic problem.
On the short term some areas like caring for the elderly will give refuge to some people, it is not a solution.
Nope it's 100% impossible that changes in trends(which are entirely historical) can alter future outcomes. A change in the trend at the latest observed data points fundamentally cannot have any causal power over the next unobserved data point. If that were true we would literally not even have to collect data in the real world because we would simply know the future ahead of time based on analyzing a graph.
That's where you're wrong, there's no reason to think that ANY trend will hold, good or bad. But since you sound like a projectionist then you would also have to say that you believe that global jobs will be going up past 3.3+ bil (150+ mil US) because the trend says that jobs are being created and going up right now. If you think trends are destiny then you can't just cherry pick some trends and ignore others.
I suggest you read about the 'problem of induction'. No trend, no matter how big the number or the amount of data means that the next data point will continue along its historical path. Or even if that trend does continue it may be counteracted by new kinds of low skill jobs being created in new low skill industries.
No I never said firefighters shouldn't do their jobs because they can't 'predict' everything that will happen. I'm saying fire fighters should do their jobs based on the *explanations* and training they received about how fires work and behave, and how that might relate to houses, their structural integrity, and the medical needs of the people inside.
Okay i'm not saying don't recognizing trends i'm saying don't use that trend as proof of what will happen in the future. Demand could go lower in 2020, it could level off, it could go up. Your opinion of the future is speculation and isn't scientific.
Last edited by PC2; 2020-02-23 at 02:41 AM.
since you specifically mentioned "at the moment"...
AI atm is moving towards replacing white collar jobs. Office jobs. Assistants, accountants, paralegals, etc.
Robotic automation (not AI) is the thing that is replacing manual labour jobs for decades in factories and supply lines. There are still plenty of such works around even if it is happening for decades.
and the geek shall inherit the earth
Tech today isn't about benefiting society at all. It's only about profitability.
If there was some way to measure it, I would think that we're probably about a century from where we should be in terms of innovation and technological progress.
What's up with the sudden resurgence of Luddites?
They think that life was better in the past because of cherry picked examples of when a small group of people lived in relative comfort. Those people living in comfort were the ones writing books, making movies, etc, so it gives us a romanticized and distorted vision of how life was simpler/"better" during those eras when the technology was primitive... Then they jump to the assumption that their lives don't seem as good because modern technology has somehow robbed us of what is "natural" and thus "good".
Plus the whole "taking our jubs" trope.
Last edited by PC2; 2020-02-23 at 03:38 PM.
Except the internet makes it easy.
Now you can get in touch with a radical right wing malitia group and start your training for the revolution when your mom gets angry at you.
It didn’t used to be like that.
The internet, unregulated, is a tool often used for harm.
Personally, I think there should be a law that enforces anonymity. Your real name should be viewable by anyone, like a phone book.
That would solve a lot. You’d still have your precious freedom of speech, and trolling would almost vanish.
Or
A seperate internet needs to emerge. One that would be run and monitered and CONTROLLED above all else. You could either use it or not, but the idea would be that it would not be a wild west.
Last edited by XangXu; 2020-02-23 at 04:18 PM.
That can't happen though in countries that have human rights because the businesses that release their customers private information to the public would be guilty of violating various privacy and doxxing laws. There could however be an opt-in mechanism for those who consent to releasing their private information.
Last edited by PC2; 2020-02-24 at 07:13 AM.
Less about Luddites and more about putting profits before innovation.
I firmly believe that were far behind on breakthroughs on medicine simply because pharmaceuticals have learned from the polio vaccine that a couple of inexpensive shots that gives a lifetime benefit crushes the bottomline. Better to have expensive half measures that a sick individual needs for most of his/her life...
Good or bad for what end? For making us happier as a whole - probably has no effect on that. Some poor farmer without electricity in Cambodia may be happier than an overworked millionaire somewhere in Japan, or a rich fund baby who doesn't know what to do with themselves.
Rincewind: Ah! We may, in fact, have reached the root of the problem. However it's a silly problem and so I am suddenly going to stop talking to you.
The better character questionnaire (D&D)
They don't want to do that. They want to make perpetually increasing amounts of money.
If improving their products/services will result in that, they will attempt to do that.
But if they can make their desired money without having to spend money on that improvement, they happily will.
And they are doing the latter.
Warning : Above post may contain snark and/or sarcasm. Try reparsing with the /s argument before replying.
What the world has learned is that America is never more than one election away from losing its goddamned mindMe on Elite : Dangerous | My WoW charactersOriginally Posted by Howard Tayler
Actually your link is about boosting the price of existing products where as Shadowferal's point was about a conspiracy to prevent 'innovation', which is about discovering entirely new and/or better medical products and services. Medical and pharmaceutical organizations do work on innovating and claiming otherwise is nothing short of conspiratorial nonsense.