Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Breccia]

I'll let the experts handle this one:

Stock market’s 6-day drop set to mark fastest slide into correction territory since 2008

Yes, that 2008.

[SavoirFaire]

I guess if you say things are down and wait long enough, eventually you’ll be right...

If it dips after every Sanders win and Trump can get that link in people’s heads, expect 4 more years.

[Inuyaki]

I guess if you say things are down and wait long enough, eventually you’ll be right...

If it dips after every Sanders win and Trump can get that link in people’s heads, expect 4 more years.

I don't think people will be THAT stupid.
If the economy crashes now (which it will anyway in the next 1-2 years, but is now accelarated and this could be the crash), people will suffer. A lot. Because of Trump's stupid decisions in the last 3 years. You really won't be able to counter the next recession (thx tax cuts for the rich) and people will suffer. And I really doubt Trump could spin that.

[Breccia]

Just going to cite CNN because I can when I say "the DOW is on track for its worst week since 2008".

On track for. We're not there yet. Granted, it's 2:30 NYSETime on a Thursday, but we're not there yet.

With that in mind, since weekly DOW drops aren't commonly known, I dug up the worst 10.

At time of writing, since 2007 at least, the worst week in DOW results was the week of 10/6/2008, when the DOW dropped 1871 points.

Trump owns the next eight.

And Obama has #10, the week starting 1/4/2016, losing 1059 points.

"Hey you're being disingenuous! Trump surely has the best weeks too!"

Well, he does have six of the ten top weeks, actually, yes, including #1.

"HAH! MAGA!"

Each of which is a smaller increase than a week he lost.

"What?"

For example, his best week ever, 11/26/2018, the DOW went up 1174 points, but his worst week ever before today, 12/17/2018, it lost 1541. Repeat that with second best/second worst, third best third worst, etc. and it's an easy pattern to follow. In fact, Trump has two 1,000+ gains but as demonstrated above eight 1,000- drops.

The DOW closed Feb 21st at 28,993 and is now 26,331 a drop of 2662 points.

"Wait, you're still being unfair. Stock market values should be looked at by percents, not number values!"

Well, okay, fine. This does actually paint Trump in a much more positive light. That same week in 2008 is still the worst, a staggering 22% drop, and nothing else is double digits. W owns the #2 spot also, but Trump owns #3, the week that started this very thread.

Which was a 6.8% drop.

So far, he's lost 9.1% this week. Yes, this would be the second worst proportional drop in the DOW since 2007.

"But...but...Trump still has a bunch in the best column, right?"

Actually, he has zero. Since Feb 27, 2007 at least, the best proportional weeks in the DOW were
-- seven during Obama's tenure
-- two after Obama was elected, but not President yet
-- and late Oct 2008.

Yes, this ignores most of W's term, but that's not the point. Obama beat Trump handily across the board.

Now to be clear: the week isn't over yet. But in order for Trump to not have the worst number drop in a week since 2008, the DOW would have to climb 1100 points, which in turn, would be as cited above about the same as his best week ever ever. For it not to be the worst proportional week since 2008, it has to go up 1.3% of Friday's close. That, at least, is doable, at 376 points, to "only" be the second worst.

Bitchslap. Oh, snap.

[jeezusisacasual]

Well walking into the office today and more bleeding is happening ( i think this is due to the Corona Virus news out of California ) but with the TSX halting for a malfunction will only push tinfoil hatery. As of writing the DJIA is down 2.37% and the Nasdaq is down 2.57% ( S&P 500 is another down at 2.42% ) which is just more continuation of the problems faced earlier in the week. The better question is how will the Trump administration ease the market and virus protectionary measures because Mike Pence does not instill confidence altho more then if he said himself was handling it.

I am no fan of Sven Henrich for various reasons but i find his take on this current monetary issues to be spot on from his thoughts on debt, credit ratings, compensation issues and overall FED intervention. We all know that the Trump team ( or any administration for that matter ) would never publicize a large market downward trend because literal news will only spook more when we kind of want and need fake news to curb some of the bleeding.

I still go back to more problems in the auto industry being a larger driver to overall problems facing the American and lesser extent global economy.

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/...bprime-crisis/

Myself and the team i am apart of think that corporate debt will be a very larger driver in the next recession which given how bad the Bank bailouts swung the political class i am sure that a massive and likely international bailout for them will cause another shit storm. Credit and debt needs to be scaled back but in a way that will not disrupt the populace and business leaders but i have no idea how in the hell they can provide that relief or tackle the issues that caused this sort thing while keeping the populace in a desirable place? This is another reason as to why freakouts happen over a rise in rates.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-12-1028731031

https://fortune.com/2019/12/03/corpo...unt-companies/

https://www.investopedia.com/why-deb...versal-4772080


Also alot of those i read on my bus ride to work.

[Zan15]

I hesitated to post to gloat...but thanks.

Just a reminder the worst president ever.....Obama....is kind of beating the pants off Trump as far as stock market returns are concerned.
Shows you the impact of policy and confidence in presidents.

For all those people crying "my 401k is better under trump" must have invested it all in Tesla....hope they got out before this week started.

SP500 - as of yesterday, same point in terms

Obama- 65.4%
Trump - 36.8%

That's 77.7% better performance...
https://www.macrotrends.net/2482/sp5...e-by-president


Dow

Obama- 61.9%
Trump- 35.7%

That's 73.4% better performance
https://www.macrotrends.net/2481/sto...e-by-president



I am sure Trump supporters and Trump himself will try to include "since election" in their totals like they always do.

SP500 since election day close

2,139. > 3042 = 42% increase

Nope still way below 65.4%.

The highest ever? 3,393 > 2139 ?? 58.6%....getting closer.....LOL



If anyone also thinks this has to do with Bernie, this many months out from the nomination process and before super Tuesday you really need to get your head checked.

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I am no fan of Sven Henrich for various reasons but i find his take on this current monetary issues to be spot on from his thoughts on debt, credit ratings, compensation issues and overall FED intervention. We all know that the Trump team ( or any administration for that matter ) would never publicize a large market downward trend because literal news will only spook more when we kind of want and need fake news to curb some of the bleeding.

I still go back to more problems in the auto industry being a larger driver to overall problems facing the American and lesser extent global economy.

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/...bprime-crisis/

Myself and the team i am apart of think that corporate debt will be a very larger driver in the next recession which given how bad the Bank bailouts swung the political class i am sure that a massive and likely international bailout for them will cause another shit storm. Credit and debt needs to be scaled back but in a way that will not disrupt the populace and business leaders but i have no idea how in the hell they can provide that relief or tackle the issues that caused this sort thing while keeping the populace in a desirable place? This is another reason as to why freakouts happen over a rise in rates.


Also alot of those i read on my bus ride to work.

Corporate debt is way up, but its way up with low rates.
This is not the 1980's where companies were drowning in corporate debt of 10-20% normal rates.

The only companies that are going to have real trouble are those that issued debt to boost stock buy backs, dividends, mergers/acquisitions they didn't and couldn't afford.

Unfortunately there are a lot of them who figured they could beat the interest on the debt with increased cash flow and stock returns. Mostly padding their own salaries, bonuses and stock options while putting the company is sever future trouble.

[jeezusisacasual]

Also before i go into my morning meeting i want to say that this market can recover almost all of its losses if the FED drops 50 to 75 basis points which will put the onus on the current administration to say that lending is fine and economy is fine etc.

[D Luniz]

Also before i go into my morning meeting i want to say that this market can recover almost all of its losses if the FED drops 50 to 75 basis points which will put the onus on the current administration to say that lending is fine and economy is fine etc.

when have they NOT been saying that?

[Breccia]

this market can recover almost all of its losses if the FED drops 50 to 75 basis points

Maybe. And it's expected they will this year, as I've posted before.

However, if you ask the experts and not me:
1) The Fed's job is not about fighting the coronavirus but to deal with longer-term economic issues. The GDP dropping 0.2%, which I've also posted seems to be the low end of the predicted drop due to the coronavirus, probably won't make the Fed move that far.
2) There's not much they can do anyhow. The Fed can lower rates to encourage borrowing. Awesome. That doesn't magically repair supply chains or create purchases overseas. It might help some companies refinance so they don't go into debt as much while <sarcasm> waiting till April for the common cold to magically go away</sarcasm>.
3) And it might not even be a good idea even if they did. The stock market lost multiple trillion dollars this week, but as we keep saying here, most people don't own that many stocks. If we cite it when Trump brags about a strong stock market, well, we have to cite it now, too. The loss of business will probably cause some job losses, but that hasn't really happened yet, and Mom and Pop Corner Store isn't on the index. The drop in stock prices will hurt those who did all those stock buybacks, and the sorrow and lament I feel about that is located in this empty space:




But, for now at least, this week has mostly affected the top end of the income brackets. Lowering rates specifically to combat the dropping stock market would not be necessary for the average American, not until layoffs and closings start getting announced. The Fed lowering rates because of this week, therefore, would not really fit precedent and could send a questionable message.

Your original point still stands uncontested. The Fed lowers rates when things get bad. It's a slap across the face of every single Trump claim about the economy being strong, especially the "stock market looks good to me!" that came during the first thousand point loss.

Speaking of which, Control-R tells me we're down 900 for the day.

[Zan15]

Also before i go into my morning meeting i want to say that this market can recover almost all of its losses if the FED drops 50 to 75 basis points which will put the onus on the current administration to say that lending is fine and economy is fine etc.

LOL the problem is not a money supply problem or a cheap/too high rate problem.
its a supply problem. Its a consumer problem.

When you have full industries losing out on huge sales, a brittle economy will break.

You might get a bump but I don't see this being a solution at all.


Also I don't think this 10% "correction" is a long term problem either. I think by summer we will be back to unrealistic highs support not by any real fundamentals other than speculations and hopefulness.

I hope I am not wrong because the opposite of that is bad, like 2008-2009 bad.



The real problems start when the layoff start en'mass and start to snowball. Then I would worry.
Just need a few big corporations to start the trend to "prop up stocks" like they did in 2009 which just made the whole economies problems worse. Companies that did not understand if you lay off a million people that downstream that's 5-10 million less customers who have jobs/money to buy their products

[Breccia]

Wait, down 1,000 now? STOP HITTING CONTROL R STOP HITTING CONTROL R

[Zan15]

Speaking of which, Control-R tells me we're down 900 for the day.

The last 30 minutes of trading are some of the worst minutes to be part of....

25,922.71
-1,034.88 -3.84%

900...they wish
that psychological 26k barrier ouch

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Top 4 stocks by market value have lost almost 600 billion. Yikes....

that is a lot of 401k's in hurt, since they are also the most popular stocks


man that 2 hour strech really point toward some panic selling in some stocks.


eeek 1117.....4.15%.....accelerating 1197.....4.5%
400+ Nasdaq...
below 3k for sp500...

[Breccia]

eeek 1117.....4.15%.....accelerating

I said STOP HITTING CONTROL R!

1193 now. Um...did some company announce earnings or something? 300 points in ten minutes suggests something big happened.

Or...was this people sneaking in one last selloff before the selloff tomorrow morning?

[Zan15]

I said STOP HITTING CONTROL R!

1193 now. Um...did some company announce earnings or something? 300 points in ten minutes suggests something big happened.

Or...was this people sneaking in one last selloff before the selloff tomorrow morning?

No one wants to be holding for overnight news. just one headline last night about a single case was 400 point news.

- - - Updated - - -

Lets see

Worst point drop ever for both markets
fastest loss of 4 month gains ever.


well at least trumps markets are still breaking records /s

[Breccia]

With the market closed i can safely say that the dow jones tanked. Almost a 1200 point loss in a day.

Yeah, those, um, those last few minutes really sucked. This is the worst day in a span of record-settingly bad days.

[Thepersona]

I said STOP HITTING CONTROL R!

1193 now. Um...did some company announce earnings or something? 300 points in ten minutes suggests something big happened.

Or...was this people sneaking in one last selloff before the selloff tomorrow morning?

Prolly the second alternative is the correct one. My gut feeling tells me that tomorrow will also be crappy for the stock markets (considering the sharp sell off that we saw 30 minutes prior of the closing).

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Yeah, those, um, those last few minutes really sucked. This is the worst day in a span of record-settingly bad days.

Last 30 minutes the dow lost like 300 points. That's awful.

[Breccia]

My gut feeling tells me that tomorrow will also be crappy for the stock markets

A lot can change in a few hours. But yeah, I'll probably peek at the futures before hitting the sack after mixing the last of my espresso grounds and the last of my half-and-half. So...2, 3AM.

The slide will stop eventually. But I'm done predicting when. My on-target record is getting close to Eli Manning territory.

[Zan15]

Prolly the second alternative is the correct one. My gut feeling tells me that tomorrow will also be crappy for the stock markets (considering the sharp sell off that we saw 30 minutes prior of the closing).

l.

With the quick news cycles and the risk of a single bad news story of another American confirmed flu patient of a few more...would be catastrophic to be holding a lot of stocks for almost 3 days....
I think some of this sell off that fast was to hedge against a lot of panic selling tomorrow.

god I hope I am wrong, but I think this sell off accelerates before the weekend.

[Zaydin]

Sounds like a brutal day and yet more bad news for Trump. The supposedly 'good' economy was the one thing keeping him afloat and if that tanks he's done for.

[Thepersona]

Sounds like a brutal day and yet more bad news for Trump. The supposedly 'good' economy was the one thing keeping him afloat and if that tanks he's done for.

It's tanking ATM. And remember, he was the one who left the fed without means to combat a crisis if there's one (see how low the interest rate is)