Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[mmoholist]

More proof that China's numbers were bullshit with this kind of growth....

If you run the numbers the virus is actually spreading slower than it was in China.

[Fargus]

More confirmed cases reduces the mortality rate, however.

Not if the mortality ratio remains the same.

[Zan15]

More confirmed cases reduces the mortality rate, however.

if you are a averagely healthy person, this virus is no worse then the cold. the death rate is massively inflated and dropping daily. because the symptoms are non existent or VERY mild in a huge amount of cases, many who get it, never have it reported or counted. this causes the death rate to inflate.

yes just like with every other virus, the point being, the death rate isnt even close to accurate, this is way it has been dropping every single day.

No more than any other flu since it is being blown way put of proportion by everyone and every country.

welp..umm...oops?



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-...y-thought.html

WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought

World health officials say the case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva.

[Poe]

The US currently has the highest death count/confirmed cases ratio .

119 cases, 9 deaths. That's a 7.56% death rate

Besides the few counties that only have a couple of reported cases and 1 or 2 deaths like the Philippines.

[The Oblivion]

welp..umm...oops?



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-...y-thought.html

WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought

World health officials say the case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva.

that does not change or impact my statements. it stands to reason, people with the very mild and moderate cases go without being detected. People with severe symptoms are much more likely to be caught. Because severe symptoms are being detected more often vs mild ones, it projects a higher severity of the illness. This will massively impact all statistics. its the same reason its hard to know how many people get a cold on any given year, we can guess, but its impossible to know, because huge amounts dont go to the doctor, their illness never gets accounted for.

the key word in that statement is "REPORTED". With any illness that has VERY mild symptoms in MOST cases, reporting will be low. Add in stigma around COVID in countries like China and Korea causing an unwillingness to come forward, this creates numbers that are near meaningless. The WHO can only release what numbers they have, that is obvious, but it doesn't make those numbers even close to representative of reality.

- - - Updated - - -

The US currently has the highest death count/confirmed cases ratio .

119 cases, 9 deaths. That's a 7.56% death rate

Besides the few counties that only have a couple of reported cases and 1 or 2 deaths like the Philippines.

blame the Washington elderly care home. Where like 6 or 7 of the deaths happened, in addition the fact that the virus has been spreading in washington but not reported at all, this means there are FAR more then 119 cases in the US. We just dont know.

[Skulltaker]

The US currently has the highest death count/confirmed cases ratio .

119 cases, 9 deaths. That's a 7.56% death rate

Besides the few counties that only have a couple of reported cases and 1 or 2 deaths like the Philippines.

I don't want to downplay those deaths, but with a relatively small number like 119 infected you'll never get a 'representative' death toll. This has nothing to do with the US. That being said, I hope noone else dies, but that's not going to happen.

- - - Updated - - -

welp..umm...oops?



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-...y-thought.html

WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought

World health officials say the case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva.

That's actually pretty terrifying.

[Mihalik]

More proof that China's numbers were bullshit with this kind of growth....

Or... Authoritarian governments that couldn't give less a fuck about personal freedoms are really good at imposing quarantines.

[sabe]

this isn't how the law works.
oh no chile just reported it's first case. one of my battlenet friends is from there.

How does the law works. Please enlighten me.

[Zan15]

that does not change or impact my statements. it stands to reason, people with the very mild and moderate cases go without being detected. People with severe symptoms are much more likely to be caught. Because severe symptoms are being detected more often vs mild ones, it projects a higher severity of the illness. This will massively impact all statistics. its the same reason its hard to know how many people get a cold on any given year, we can guess, but its impossible to know, because huge amounts dont go to the doctor, their illness never gets accounted for.

the key word in that statement is "REPORTED". With any illness that has VERY mild symptoms in MOST cases, reporting will be low. Add in stigma around COVID in countries like China and Korea causing an unwillingness to come forward, this creates numbers that are near meaningless. The WHO can only release what numbers they have, that is obvious, but it doesn't make those numbers even close to representative of reality.

its all relative to other stats. The same thing can be said for the flu for which all this is being compared to. Nothing you are stating is unique to this virus vs the flu.

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That's actually pretty terrifying.

Even if its 1/3rd the number its still terrifying

[shadowmouse]

That's actually pretty terrifying.

Note the catch to that figure though. The next paragraph of that article goes on to state:

The World Health Organization had said last week that the mortality rate of COVID-19 can differ, ranging from 0.7% to up to 4%, depending on the quality of the health-care system where it's treated. Early in the outbreak, scientists had concluded the death rate was around 2.3%.

More broadly, I found this to be an interesting article: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/h...ons/index.html

The article itself may be worth a read, it is a bit long to block quote though. The parts I found interesting were:

It isn't so much that H1N1 burned out like SARS, it just got folded in with seasonal flu (and checking other sources it appears H1N1 is part of the seasonal flu shot now).

The H1N1 flu strain caused a pandemic in 2009, and now it has become a seasonally occurring virus.

The closing point of the article seems to suggest that even if COVID-19 doesn't burn out like SARS there may well be a point that people themselves burn out on it. Who talks about H1N1 these days?

The most common resolution is a "global amnesia," Markel said. The virus winds down and the public goes back to their regular lives, not thinking about the outbreak.

For another interesting read: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/o...ips/index.html
That's an ER doctor's opinions on how things look going into a possible broader outbreak of COVID-19 in the US. I see he discusses telemedicine but unlike what was mentioned in a previous post he doesn't seem to say there is a clear CDC plan for people to call in. He does address a point that I've had particular concerns about in the US context (where my 80 year old high risk parents live):

Meanwhile, employers large and small must enact public health measures, part of which should include requirements that sick employees stay home and guarantees that they will not be penalized for doing so.

[Muajin76]

Korea is saying 90% of the situation will be better after a few weeks and that cases have peaked. I don't think cases have peaked yet there..

[Puupi]

Anyone seen these videos out of Iran, doesnt look good.

What videos? What's in them?

[jonnysensible]

What videos? What's in them?

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/stat...69785386717184

loads of dead peeps

But if you look at https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

Theres only 77 confirmed dead out of 2000+ cases.

[Poopymonster]

Meanwhile, employers large and small must enact public health measures, part of which should include requirements that sick employees stay home and guarantees that they will not be penalized for doing so.

In the US, restaurant and retail employees don't get insurance or benefits, can't afford to go to a doctor, much less take days off. "will not be penalized", hehe, welcome to At-Will employment.

[For_The_Horde]

Or... Authoritarian governments that couldn't give less a fuck about personal freedoms are really good at imposing quarantines.

Funny thing about absolute lockdown quarantines is that it's difficult to get numbers of infection and recovery (and deaths), and that's assuming China even plans to report accurate infection numbers. Because if their authoritarian rule isn't enough to halt the spread, then they sure as hell won't make themselves look weak or ineffectual by admitting its out of their control. Remember Chernobyl as an example, authoritarian governments usually refuse to look powerless in front of the world or especially their own people, even if the world and their people suffer for it.

[Poe]

Korea is saying 90% of the situation will be better after a few weeks and that cases have peaked. I don't think cases have peaked yet there..

Lol right

They had over 800 new cases today alone.

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https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/stat...69785386717184

loads of dead peeps.

yikes man .WTF

[shadowmouse]

In the US, restaurant and retail employees don't get insurance or benefits, can't afford to go to a doctor, much less take days off.

Ya missed one. People working for tips are even more SOL, and have a nice day because they're the ones directly around your food.

For extra fun, anyone with possible immigration issues will probably also be largely invisible to the health care system as this ramps up. I expect a lot of social issues to bite us in the ass, but don't worry ... Pence is on it! /cry

[jonnysensible]

Ya missed one. People working for tips are even more SOL, and have a nice day because they're the ones directly around your food.

For extra fun, anyone with possible immigration issues will probably also be largely invisible to the health care system as this ramps up. I expect a lot of social issues to bite us in the ass, but don't worry ... Pence is on it! /cry

pences main policy objective is trying to accelerate the rapture right?

[Muajin76]

Lol right

They had over 800 new cases today alone.

I don't foresee the the virus peaking for sometime...unless they manage to contain cases, which it sounds like is in process. T.T

[Unholyground]

welp..umm...oops?



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-...y-thought.html

WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought

World health officials say the case fatality rate for COVID-19 is 3.4% globally, higher than previous estimates of about 2%.
“Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a press briefing at the agency’s headquarters in Geneva.

I bet that number is heavily weighted in China since they aren't as healthy due to their environment.