Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Forogil]

It quite literally has a 3.7% mortality rate for confirmed cases so far (6.7% mortality rate for closed cases). Scientists suspect that the ultimate mortality rate will be somewhat lower once all is said and done, but there's zero evidence pointing specifically to 1%.

There was a report by Imperial College in London who got 1% with some margin of error. I wouldn't call that zero evidence.

[Strawberry]

Italy has 15% mortality rate.

But Italians seem to die easily from flu:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...4LsxV-U9059yZg

[Onikaroshi]

Italy has 15% mortality rate.

But Italians seem to die easily from flu:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/scienc...4LsxV-U9059yZg

Italians are old, 23% over the age of 65, avg age of 47

[ercarp]

109 cases in Finland as of today. Was 65 yesterday. Most of them are in the capital region (where I live), but they haven't closed anything yet.

[Forogil]

Worldwide the WHO has it at 3.4%, I'll call it 3.4% until they change it.

Wrong, WHO does not have the fatality rate at 3.4%.

Look carefully at:
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...--3-march-2020
The statement was "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died."
That is correct, but doesn't say what you think as the issue is the number of infected that aren't reported.

WHO know the difference between reported and infected and choose that word carefully, especially as the next statement was
"By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected."

Obviously we don't how many unreported cases there are, but we can make estimates. One way is to look at countries really testing, as S. Korea, or use more advanced statistical methods as Imperial College did.

[Forgettable]

Wrong, WHO does not have the fatality rate at 3.4%.

Look carefully at:
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...--3-march-2020
The statement was "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died."
That is correct, but doesn't say what you think as the issue is the number of infected that aren't reported.

WHO know the difference between reported and infected and choose that word carefully, especially as the next statement was
"By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected."

Obviously we don't how many unreported cases there are, but we can make estimates. One way is to look at countries really testing, as S. Korea, or use more advanced statistical methods as Imperial College did.

This is probably the most important post regarding the death rate. Lots of misinformation out there people. Confirmed & reported cases =/= Unreported cases. You sure as hell know that every death will be recorded, but there will be lots of people with the virus that simply won't be added to the tally because they'll never go to the doctor to get checked. This will skew the mortality rate of the confirmed & reported cases higher than the actual rate.

[Onikaroshi]

Wrong, WHO does not have the fatality rate at 3.4%.

Look carefully at:
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...--3-march-2020
The statement was "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died."
That is correct, but doesn't say what you think as the issue is the number of infected that aren't reported.

WHO know the difference between reported and infected and choose that word carefully, especially as the next statement was
"By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected."

Obviously we don't how many unreported cases there are, but we can make estimates. One way is to look at countries really testing, as S. Korea, or use more advanced statistical methods as Imperial College did.

The only number we know now is 3.4%, it will remain 3.4% until they come up with a different number.

[PhaelixWW]

There was a report by Imperial College in London who got 1% with some margin of error. I wouldn't call that zero evidence.

You mean this report of their ESTIMATE, which was published over a month ago? It's an early estimate, no more, no less. It's not proof, nor some high refinement of scads of data.

[Fuiking]

You don't want to overload hospitals or coax the virus into a deadly mutation. It's all about mitigating factors you can control to head off one's you can't.

I'd love to upvote you Simple explaination of the inherent risks and consencuences if you let this ''flu'' go about its merry way.

[PhaelixWW]

Italy has 15% mortality rate.

I think you divided the wrong direction; Italy's mortality rate is actually 6.7%. 1016 deaths in 15113 cases.

[Zatheyll]

No hyperbole, just the way it is, most Americans can't afford to catch it

Americans are some of the richest people on Earth, even the ones making minimum wage. It astounds me how self-centered the average American is. They were joking about the virus for months, and now that it has a chance of making them lose even a couple weeks of wages, they're losing their shit. It's pathetic.

How dare they close schools or bars in an effort to stop the spread, who gives a shit about the hundreds of millions of lives being ruined everywhere else! /s




To elaborate on the above: Someone making 8 dollars an hour (many states are higher than that now) is in the top 8% richest on Earth. The median wage in the USA (16.67 an hour) puts you in the top 1% richest on Earth.

[PhaelixWW]

You sure as hell know that every death will be recorded, but there will be lots of people with the virus that simply won't be added to the tally because they'll never go to the doctor to get checked. This will skew the mortality rate of the confirmed & reported cases higher than the actual rate.

And some of those confirmed cases that aren't dead... will be in the future. Which will tend skew the numbers the other direction. Trying to guess which one is more over-/under-represented is just that: a guess. With the timeframe we're looking at here, combined with the vast differences in testing capability, health care capability, underlying health factors, and frankly more factors that we're probably unaware of, there's no way to legitimately refine that guess much.

Which is why it's far easier to just use the crude data for now and argue about the true mortality rate later. It'll probably be less than 3%. But it also might not be. Regardless, nobody should be handwaving a 1% rate any more than they should be handwaving a 3% rate, so it doesn't much matter.

[PACOX]

Worldwide the WHO has it at 3.4%, I'll call it 3.4% until they change it.

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You have to require a positive test to get pay honestly, it can't just be all willy nilly.

What if someone in your home has it or you just came from a place where someone had it? Unless we're testing people as soon as they walk outside those are the quarantine guidelines.

[Forogil]

You mean this report of their ESTIMATE, which was published over a month ago? It's an early estimate, no more, no less. It's not proof, nor some high refinement of scads of data.

The point is that it is not zero evidence, as you stated.

[PhaelixWW]

The point is that it is not zero evidence, as you stated.

A hypothesis is not evidence. Where did you learn about science, anyway?

[Onikaroshi]

Americans are some of the richest people on Earth, even the ones making minimum wage. It astounds me how self-centered the average American is. They were joking about the virus for months, and now that it has a chance of making them lose even a couple weeks of wages, they're losing their shit. It's pathetic.

How dare they close schools or bars in an effort to stop the spread, who gives a shit about the hundreds of millions of lives being ruined everywhere else! /s




To elaborate on the above: Someone making 8 dollars an hour (many states are higher than that now) is in the top 8% richest on Earth. The median wage in the USA puts you in the top 1% richest on Earth.

What? Most Americans don't even make enough to live a decent life. Making 8 dollars an hour US doesn't mean much went rent is over 800-1000 a month, plus utilities at another 2-300.

You'd have to work 100 hours just to cover rent at 8 dollars an hour.

[Fuiking]

Americans are some of the richest people on Earth, even the ones making minimum wage. It astounds me how self-centered the average American is. They were joking about the virus for months, and now that it has a chance of making them lose even a couple weeks of wages, they're losing their shit. It's pathetic.

How dare they close schools or bars in an effort to stop the spread, who gives a shit about the hundreds of millions of lives being ruined everywhere else! /s




To elaborate on the above: Someone making 8 dollars an hour (many states are higher than that now) is in the top 8% richest on Earth. The median wage in the USA puts you in the top 1% richest on Earth.

And whats the cost of living there? You do know, that you have to pay for medical aid yourself and that some prices are insane over there?

[PhaelixWW]

What? Most Americans don't even make enough to live a decent life.

To be fair, our standard of living is so high that what we tend to consider a "decent life" seems like a warped perspective to many outside the country.

[Forogil]

The only number we know now is 3.4%, it will remain 3.4% until they come up with a different number.

The percentage of fatalities per reported cases was 3.4% at that time and that will likely go up as countries decrease testing (due to limited number of test-kits, incompetence, and because it isn't that relevant to test everyone now).

The fatality rate (i.e. number of dead per infected) hasn't been reported by WHO and it will likely take awhile until they officially announce a number, and it will depend on a number of factors.

[breadisfunny]

Americans are some of the richest people on Earth, even the ones making minimum wage. It astounds me how self-centered the average American is. They were joking about the virus for months, and now that it has a chance of making them lose even a couple weeks of wages, they're losing their shit. It's pathetic.

How dare they close schools or bars in an effort to stop the spread, who gives a shit about the hundreds of millions of lives being ruined everywhere else! /s




To elaborate on the above: Someone making 8 dollars an hour (many states are higher than that now) is in the top 8% richest on Earth. The median wage in the USA puts you in the top 1% richest on Earth.

being poor in a rich nation isn't much better. the only difference is your settings are a bit comfier. it still sucks being poor in the u.s. as it does for someone living anywhere else. they still experience the same hopelessness,despair, inability to consistent pay bills, financial insecurity and in some cases lack of proper nourishment that other nations experience. YES THERE ACTUALLY ARE HUNGRY PEOPLE IN THE U.S. this post is frankly completely insulting. also the minimum wage here in some cases doesn't even provide that as some don't even have homes to live in. so stuff it with your "at least they are richer in the u.s." bullshit. like we don't suffer because we live in a richer country.

also have you seen our medical bills?