Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Fahrenheit]

Moderate bounce today then fall apart Monday again when some bad news is bound to show up again (or Trump does something stupid again.. I mean.. its like 3 days.. he bats almost a 100 on that)?

But the real damage hasn't even hit yet. So many closed businesses. So many major events closed down. So many dollars that won't be spent and transferred around. I get the feeling in about a month we will know how bad this is really going to be. Right now we are just watching dice rollers betting on how to make or break a buck.

I wouldn't be surprised if the bounce doesn't last through the afternoon. I suspect we may end in the red again, though not as severely as some of the most recent days.
In related news, my portfolio is almost $160k lighter this morning, then is was 1 month ago. Glad I'm not retiring anytime soon, gonna take a bit to climb back.

[Breccia]

DOW futures are predicting a bounce from yesterday's disaster.

Good.

But just a reminder: the worst DOW drop in history -- I remember it like it was yesterday -- was 2,352 points.

The best DOW jump ever ever was 1,293

And it was followed by losing more than half of that.

I don't see a legitimate way for the week to end any way differently than the previous week. Or the week before.

We started the week 24,992 and I stopped saying things like "Jan 2018" because they had stopped being relevant. We opened at 21,200

To make the week only flat, we have to get a DOW day that is literally triple the best day the DOW has had ever ever.

That's not happening.

Adding the best day the DOW has ever had ever ever will put is in Sept 2017 territory. Trump will have gotten two months back. If he ties or breaks his record, of course.

The thread title remains uncontested. The thread title gets truer by the day. We lost 2020, we lost 2019, and we lost 2018. It's not a crash, but it is a continued downwards slide, no matter what happens today.

On a final note, let's look at today vs. yesterday.

After Trump's address to the country, the world, the DOW had the biggest decline it's ever had.

Then Trump shut the fuck up. And we're getting some of it back.

I invite all members of the rabid fanbase to look back at the DOW timeline and put Trump's major addresses on it. I've already done it. I want you to do it. I want you to discover, for yourself, what Individual-One (it's like Air Force One, but fatter) does directly to the stock market through his words and actions.

Failure to do this is admission you know the answer.

[AeneasBK]

At some point, they will rebound. It may be in 3 months, or maybe 3 years.
....
If companies are based on service, then the bottom is not yet here. For Microsoft, investing in them is a better bet. I'm simply going to wait until the markets actually bottom out. In the meantime, my money will be sitting in its electronic piggy bank. I'm sure I'll likely be back in by the end of April.

Cheers for the reply

[Omega10]

DOW futures are predicting a bounce from yesterday's disaster.

Good.

But just a reminder: the worst DOW drop in history -- I remember it like it was yesterday -- was 2,352 points.

The best DOW jump ever ever was 1,293

And it was followed by losing more than half of that.

I don't see a legitimate way for the week to end any way differently than the previous week. Or the week before.

We started the week 24,992 and I stopped saying things like "Jan 2018" because they had stopped being relevant. We opened at 21,200

To make the week only flat, we have to get a DOW day that is literally triple the best day the DOW has had ever ever.

That's not happening.

Adding the best day the DOW has ever had ever ever will put is in Sept 2017 territory. Trump will have gotten two months back. If he ties or breaks his record, of course.

The thread title remains uncontested. The thread title gets truer by the day. We lost 2020, we lost 2019, and we lost 2018. It's not a crash, but it is a continued downwards slide, no matter what happens today.

On a final note, let's look at today vs. yesterday.

After Trump's address to the country, the world, the DOW had the biggest decline it's ever had.

Then Trump shut the fuck up. And we're getting some of it back.

I invite all members of the rabid fanbase to look back at the DOW timeline and put Trump's major addresses on it. I've already done it. I want you to do it. I want you to discover, for yourself, what Individual-One (it's like Air Force One, but fatter) does directly to the stock market through his words and actions.

Failure to do this is admission you know the answer.

The pull back has started, but the DOW is still up almost 500 points. I think it's safe to assume that the market will end the day somewhere between down 1000 and up 1500.

- - - Updated - - -

The pull back has started, but the DOW is still up almost 500 points. I think it's safe to assume that the market will end the day somewhere between down 1000 and up 1500.

Currently up about 350. The ups and downs are much smaller. I like the stability we are seeing today. I hope it continues and things get back to normal.

[Lenonis]

Currently up about 350. The ups and downs are much smaller. I like the stability we are seeing today. I hope it continues and things get back to normal.

Do you think the stability might be an artificial "wait and see" moment as the market waits for Trump's address later today?

[Omega10]

Do you think the stability might be an artificial "wait and see" moment as the market waits for Trump's address later today?

Unfortunately, yes I do. One last wild swing to end the week? Hopefully not. We'll know for sure in a little more than 3 hours.

[Rasulis]

Just for clarification, I am not saying now is a good time to buy. I am saying that if MSFT goes down to $130 per share, I would use my profit sharing check to buy all that I could.

Although I said that jokingly to my wife, the $130 threshold was not set without some basis. It was MSFT price in May 2019 before the stock took off and did a 40% gain in 2019. I considered that a reset point.

When it hit $136 after hour, I was rather excited. Unfortunately, it appears a lot of people felt the same way. It is up to $146 - $148 now. Could it still go down to $130? Maybe. Although I have my doubts. Almost all the analyses I saw for MSFT put the stock as buy or strong buy right now.

A testament to strength and quality of the stock, I did not see a single sell analysis, only hold, during it’s plummet from $190+.

[Zan15]

The people who swore it was "time to buy" would be out on their asses right now. I liquidated almost all of my stocks almost three weeks ago, and I'm not jumping back in until the volatility slows. There's no indication that we have bottomed out, and considering how many businesses are suspending operations, I expect to see some pretty weak economic numbers over the next 6 weeks.

The problem is we are behind the curve right now vs other countries that went through this virus outbreak ahead of us.

We are about 11-13 days behind places like SK and Italy. About another 100 countries are in the same position we are.
If even half of those countries and half our country ends up like those two the impact on the economy is huge.

this is why people are selling and starting to panic.

[Omega10]

Just for clarification, I am not saying now is a good time to buy. I am saying that if MSFT goes down to $130 per share, I would use my profit sharing check to buy all that I could.

Although I said that jokingly to my wife, the $130 threshold was not set without some basis. It was MSFT price in May 2019 before the stock took off and did a 40% gain in 2019. I considered that a reset point.

When it hit $136 after hour, I was rather excited. Unfortunately, it appears a lot of people felt the same way. It is up to $146 - $148 now. Could it still go down to $130? Maybe. Although I have my doubts. Almost all the analyses I saw for MSFT put the stock as buy or strong buy right now.

A testament to strength and quality of the stock, I did not see a single sell analysis, only hold, during it’s plummet from $190+.

Thank you for this detailed followup. I learned quite a bit from it. The details I will forget, but the story that these details tell I will remember.

[Zan15]

Just for clarification, I am not saying now is a good time to buy. I am saying that if MSFT goes down to $130 per share, I would use my profit sharing check to buy all that I could.

Although I said that jokingly to my wife, the $130 threshold was not set without some basis. It was MSFT price in May 2019 before the stock took off and did a 40% gain in 2019. I considered that a reset point.

When it hit $136 after hour, I was rather excited. Unfortunately, it appears a lot of people felt the same way. It is up to $146 - $148 now. Could it still go down to $130? Maybe. Although I have my doubts. Almost all the analyses I saw for MSFT put the stock as buy or strong buy right now.

A testament to strength and quality of the stock, I did not see a single sell analysis, only hold, during it’s plummet from $190+.

Zoink

After-Hours Low
$134.86 (19:55:15)

After-Hours High
$146.26 (17:33:24)


it still had a hell of a run in the past year, you might hit 130 if the pace/pattern of the market keeps up.
We are having our kitty bounce again today, as expected....just like the last half dozen massive drops.


Day traders must be jumping out buildings like crazy trying to keep up.


only people that are making money right now are companies that charge Fee's for trading. They must be swimming around in it like Scrooge McDuck

- - - Updated - - -

Unfortunately, yes I do. One last wild swing to end the week? Hopefully not. We'll know for sure in a little more than 3 hours.

We already had over 1500 point swings since the market closed yesterday....why not something in the last hour!! we already had what two this morning so far?

- - - Updated - - -

I wouldn't be surprised if the bounce doesn't last through the afternoon. I suspect we may end in the red again, though not as severely as some of the most recent days.
In related news, my portfolio is almost $160k lighter this morning, then is was 1 month ago. Glad I'm not retiring anytime soon, gonna take a bit to climb back.

YA but for the year what is your result? for the 11 year bull run what is your result?
Its had one fantastic run I wish it had when I was getting my full insane match from the company I worked for back in the day.

the last time it was this "good" was the tech boom, and I was not making much money to get in that wild ride

- - - Updated - - -

Moderate bounce today then fall apart Monday again when some bad news is bound to show up again (or Trump does something stupid again.. I mean.. its like 3 days.. he bats almost a 100 on that)?

But the real damage hasn't even hit yet. So many closed businesses. So many major events closed down. So many dollars that won't be spent and transferred around. I get the feeling in about a month we will know how bad this is really going to be. Right now we are just watching dice rollers betting on how to make or break a buck.

Only thing holding it together is the following:


A- hopeful the govt will pass a bill that allows for govt paid sick time, testing and pay from them instead of business pockets (saving hundreds of billions for businesses)

B- Companies are starting to announce they will continue to pay people, even when they are canceling events. This is huge if it continues and a complete opposite of the corporate reaction in 2008-2009. Keeps the money flowing to the consumer who is most of the economy.

C- They really think Someone in our dear leaders group will finally get a real economic plan finally moving.

[Omega10]

Only thing holding it together is the following:

A- hopeful the govt will pass a bill that allows for govt paid sick time, testing and pay from them instead of business pockets (saving hundreds of billions for businesses)

B- Companies are starting to announce they will continue to pay people, even when they are canceling events. This is huge if it continues and a complete opposite of the corporate reaction in 2008-2009. Keeps the money flowing to the consumer who is most of the economy.

C- They really think Someone in our dear leaders group will finally get a real economic plan finally moving.

I think there is a sense that the business community is starting to take the virus seriously and act reasonably responsibly. I also think that people are ready to do what needs to be done for the country to get through this, so that in November we can achieve the goal of just a few isolated cases left to contend with. Or at least they are starting to get ready.

It won't be a smooth ride, and it won't be fun. But I have a little more optimism that things will turn out ok. Well let me rephrase that. I have less pessimism that things will go horribly We are not out of the woods yet at all.

I hope that the people who wrote the speech that Trump will be reciting in a little over an hour will do a better job than what they wrote for him on Wednesday. And that he is right now in the process of practicing his delivery.

[Zan15]

OMG OMG OMG.

He is speaking when the markets are open?? @ 3:00?
WTF, anyone who has the balls to buy at this point.....I salute you...it could be really really bad like last time.

I have not heard that they have any real economic plan ready, if he does not announce anything economic-y then we could see another bad reaction

[Omega10]

OMG OMG OMG.

He is speaking when the markets are open?? @ 3:00?
WTF, anyone who has the balls to buy at this point.....I salute you...it could be really really bad like last time.

I have not heard that they have any real economic plan ready, if he does not announce anything economic-y then we could see another bad reaction

Yeah, the people who planned this scheduled it this way. I hope they properly took into accounts things like: the market closes at 4 for the weekend.

[Rasulis]

In 2008, we had a former chairman and chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs, an economist who served as Harvard's president, a former president of the New York Federal Reserve and a renowned academic considered one of the world's authorities on the Great Depression.

Who are our saviors now? Larry Kudlow, a former financial analyst who was a commentator on CNBC. Steve Mnuchin, a Goldman Sachs veteran and former Hollywood producer whose credits include the 2016 film “Rules Don't Apply.” Don’t forget during the 2008 debacle his bank (One West) aggressively foreclosed on their mortgage borrowers.

According to The New York Times, OneWest "was involved in a string of lawsuits over questionable foreclosures, and settled several cases for millions of dollars". Because of these foreclosures, around 100 protesters of Occupy Los Angeles gathered outside Mnuchin's home in October 2011 and held signs that read "Make Banks Pay". Two California fair-housing groups filed complaints to the federal government alleging that OneWest had violated the Fair Housing Act by not lending money to African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians.

Be very very afraid.

[Zan15]

Yeah, the people who planned this scheduled it this way. I hope they properly took into accounts things like: the market closes at 4 for the weekend.

god I hope someone gets half a brain and delay's it to at least 5:00 when aftermarket tails off

[Captain N]

Dow goes up to +1000 -- this thread starts talking about Trump addressing the nation at 3pm....Stocks drop back to +700. I know the whole correlation is not causation thing but it couldn't have been better timed.

[Zan15]

Dow goes up to +1000 -- this thread starts talking about Trump addressing the nation at 3pm....Stocks drop back to +700. I know the whole correlation is not causation thing but it couldn't have been better timed.

does not help that 3-4pm is the most volatile time in the market....and on a Friday....

a few wrong words can pop a huge drop....and we know someone who has a lot of "wrong words" and outright lies

[Omega10]

does not help that 3-4pm is the most volatile time in the market....and on a Friday....

a few wrong words can pop a huge drop....and we know someone who has a lot of "wrong words" and outright lies

Well.. its 8 minutes till the speech is planned to be given.

DOW: +3.5 percent (about +750)
Boeing: +7.5% (currently around 167)

As usual, Boeing continues to be an exaggerated extension of the DOW's gains and losses (does it have THAT MUCH influence on the DOW numbers?)

We'll see how this turns out.

[Rasulis]

Zoink

After-Hours Low
$134.86 (19:55:15)

After-Hours High
$146.26 (17:33:24)


it still had a hell of a run in the past year, you might hit 130 if the pace/pattern of the market keeps up.
We are having our kitty bounce again today, as expected....just like the last half dozen massive drops.

I will definitely buy if MSFT go down to $130 or lower. Sales of Azure Windows Virtual Desktop, Microsoft 365 and Teams are way up.

- - - Updated - - -

Dow goes up to +1000 -- this thread starts talking about Trump addressing the nation at 3pm....Stocks drop back to +700. I know the whole correlation is not causation thing but it couldn't have been better timed.

His response remind me of Bush in 2008. Bush kept insisting that the 2008 recession was just an economic slowdown. Even after multiple agencies had already declared that the US was in a recession.

[Draco-Onis]

Do you think the stability might be an artificial "wait and see" moment as the market waits for Trump's address later today?

Until the underlying issue is brought under control the markets will not stabilize. Trump basically has to get testing rolling and hospitals ready and a plan for the fallout instead of jerking off about how amazing of a job he is doing. So we are in for a wild ride.