2020 Recession

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Propelled by the Coronavirus Black Swan, we are heading for major consequences on the global and local economy.

This topic is to discuss the economic consequences outside of the crisis separately from the disease itself, as the aftershock might be felt long after the epidemics end.

So far :

-China was put to a halt for about three months (work has resumed under direct army supervision). How much and how long will other countries follow suit?

-the global supply chain has shown its vulnerabilities, especially when it comes to the Health sector. Will it prompt countries and companies to diversify or repatriate it?

-Market have crashed to 2017 levels. A needed correction or something more dire on the way?

-Various coping mechanism were announced in various countries, such as stimulus packages, freezing of mortgages, compensation of lost salaries. Will they be efficient and what will their impact be on already heavily indebted countries?

-airway companies are in for tough after booming times. How many will kick the bucket? Will there be a global downturn of worldwide circulation of people as countries tighten their border controls? Will Boeing survive it or on the contrary get back on tracks?

-oil has fallen to rock bottom prices following the failure of the last OPEC talks between the Saudis and Russia. What will be the consequences on oil-revenue depending countries and areas? What will be the consequences on renewable energy transition?

Other axis of discussion are welcome

[Draco-Onis]

Let's put another major problem central banks are going to be impotent this coming recession because we never increased rates and planned for the future. The only way out is going to be through fiscal policy which politics means it will be slower in some country rather than others. Also we have no global leadership to tackle this as it would help speed up the recovery.

I don't think we will know the full scale of this until the virus has passed even if it does it's obvious our current system is too fragile and hopefully steps are taken and lessons are learned because this won't be the last worldwide pandemic.

[AeneasBK]

Misspelled depression in the title

[Yadryonych]

Misspelled depression in the title

and forgot to add few coming years to 2020

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Let's put another major problem central banks are going to be impotent this coming recession because we never increased rates and planned for the future. The only way out is going to be through fiscal policy which politics means it will be slower in some country rather than others. Also we have no global leadership to tackle this as it would help speed up the recovery.

I don't think we will know the full scale of this until the virus has passed even if it does it's obvious our current system is too fragile and hopefully steps are taken and lessons are learned because this won't be the last worldwide pandemic.

Given that interest rates have been rock bottom more or less the 2008 Crisis, especially in Europe and my country, I have a hard time envisioning what will come up. At least in my country they have been pursuing thorough fiscal policies for decades, so we do have a rainy fund and some leeway.

[Stardripal]

Propelled by the Coronavirus Black Swan, we are heading for major consequences on the global and local economy.

You need to read Taleb more closely. This isn't a black swan. It was an entirely predictable event and many did in fact, predict it. Taleb said the same about the financial crisis.

A black swan is something no one can predict, an "uknown unknown", not just an event with a low probability of occurrence.

With regard to the aftershocks there will likely be multiple effects on the economy which no one can predict. The downside is limitless and chaotic.

- - - Updated - - -

The only way out is going to be through fiscal policy which politics means it will be slower in some country rather than others. .

You mean the banks must be given more of our money. Yeah that'll work.

[Puupi]

I'm fairly sure this will be the worst recession globally at least in the past century.

[Ghostpanther]

I'm fairly sure this will be the worst recession globally at least in the past century.

Mainly because most countries have become too dependent on a global economy. Instead of working to be independent and self sufficient. During the great depression in the US back in the 1930's, the farmers had it better, because they where self sufficient more so than most.

[Puupi]

Mainly because most countries have become too dependent on a global economy.

Well...sort of.

This recession is different - because it's not caused by typical economic or environmental things - but a global pandemic that locks people indoors, halts most production and trade regardless of whether it's international or domestic trade.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

You need to read Taleb more closely. This isn't a black swan. It was an entirely predictable event and many did in fact, predict it. Taleb said the same about the financial crisis.

A black swan is something no one can predict, an "uknown unknown", not just an event with a low probability of occurrence.

With regard to the aftershocks there will likely be multiple effects on the economy which no one can predict. The downside is limitless and chaotic.

- - - Updated - - -



You mean the banks must be given more of our money. Yeah that'll work.

Err... Taleb is precisely describing a Black Swan Event as one with retrospective and not prospective predictability. Please give me a source that predicted China's economy stopping for Q1 2020, followed by State of Emergency in most if not all Western Countries.

Taleb asserts:

What we call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three attributes.

First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme 'impact'. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme 'impact', and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans explains almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives.

Based on the author's criteria:

The event is a surprise (to the observer).
The event has a major effect.
After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.

[Ghostpanther]

Well...sort of.

This recession is different - because it's not caused by typical economic or environmental things - but a global pandemic that locks people indoors, halts most production and trade regardless of whether it's international or domestic trade.

True. That is because of increased global travel. Shut down the borders early and the more self sufficient your country is, the better you can weather a outbreak and still have the goods your country needs for it's citizens.

[Draco-Onis]

You mean the banks must be given more of our money. Yeah that'll work.

No good fiscal policy means giving money to the people at the bottom through social programs and government works efforts.

[Unholyground]

Let's put another major problem central banks are going to be impotent this coming recession because we never increased rates and planned for the future. The only way out is going to be through fiscal policy which politics means it will be slower in some country rather than others. Also we have no global leadership to tackle this as it would help speed up the recovery.

I don't think we will know the full scale of this until the virus has passed even if it does it's obvious our current system is too fragile and hopefully steps are taken and lessons are learned because this won't be the last worldwide pandemic.

Banks have plenty of fucking money/equity, they will just have to eat the losses and move on.

[Draco-Onis]

Banks have plenty of fucking money/equity, they will just have to eat the losses and move on.

Why does everyone assume I mean banks? fiscal policy doesn't automatically mean that its a umbrella term for government spending like works programs. For example the US could easily do an high speed interstate transit system (bullet trains) that would employ hundreds of thousands of people not to mention boost the economy. Something like that would change the country not to mention make rural areas more attractive to live in.

[Unholyground]

Why does everyone assume I mean banks? fiscal policy doesn't automatically mean that its a umbrella term for government spending like works programs. For example the US could easily do an high speed interstate transit system (bullet trains) that would employ hundreds of thousands of people not to mention boost the economy. Something like that would change the country not to mention make rural areas more attractive to live in.

Ya I know what you are saying, the gov could actually bring everyone out of poverty with 1/10 of the military budget but they want life to be hard for everyone.

[Rexosaurus]

IF this whole situation lasts until June/July, then yeah I'd say that we're gonna start seeing some widespread economic issues. I can only speak to the U.S., but our society just isn't built to function under these conditions for very long. We have terrible infrastructure and social programs, our political system is a deadlock of rich yahoos that spend too much time trying to look good and curry political power instead of solving problems, and obviously not many people can produce their own food and goods.

It's going to be a chaotic situation to solve. Not to mention that it'll be expensive to keep everyone housed and fed. I could see a couple of situations where things aren't so bad once it's finally over, but I think that it's more likely that the longer we're in some state of lockdown, the more that it'll cost to jump-start the economy when it's over.

[Skroe]

Why does everyone assume I mean banks? fiscal policy doesn't automatically mean that its a umbrella term for government spending like works programs. For example the US could easily do an high speed interstate transit system (bullet trains) that would employ hundreds of thousands of people not to mention boost the economy. Something like that would change the country not to mention make rural areas more attractive to live in.

Modernizing / replacing our aging airports would be a far better investment (and I mean, give many build in the 1970s and before the planned La Guardia treatment: a bulldozer). Air travel is vastly superior to "high speed" rail.

High speed rail in North America is a waste of money. Among other things.

[Daelak]

Mainly because most countries have become too dependent on a global economy. Instead of working to be independent and self sufficient. During the great depression in the US back in the 1930's, the farmers had it better, because they where self sufficient more so than most.

Is this a sick joke? Your entire post is devoid of any truth. Farmers died en masse during the great depression and the dust bowl. If we didn't have a global economy the goods and services in which your fixed income could get would be severely limited. Stop posting shit in which you don't understand.

[Theodarzna]

I would say Corona-Chan was merely the straw that broke the camels back, but the fundamentals of the economy were held together by paperclips and duck-tape.

I think given the Fed invented 1.5 trillion dollars and it merely slowed the free fall of the markets for two hours or so before evaporating like it got Thanos snapped is amazing. Honestly IMHO the government has no way now to do jack about the oncoming depression. Especially since Coronavirus is going to need the entire country on mostly lockdown for an indeterminate length of time. This could be a week or two, it could be a month or two, there could be a second wave that is WAY worse coming this fall. The bond market might implode next week.

Trump, for the first time, is actually spooked. He looks spooked, which is possibly the most terrifying thing, when he reads from a teleprompter than shit must be bad. At this point I think the presidency is a hot potato nobody wants because in all likelihood the economy is so FUBAR. There is no tools or tricks they are politically willing to do that could work; hell you have Mitt Bain Capital Romney proposing the 1k a month in NEET bux to maybe hold off a mass national panic. Our doing the stingy 200 a month Warren.

I think we are heading into depression territory. The government won't do anything serious to really mitigate the crisis, but I suspect they will conjure a couple trillion more to no avail and risk further economic damage. The question then is how long until Corona passes and America has a yellow-vest movement and serious problems in the aftermath. Neither a Trump nor a future Biden admin will do anything that isn't "Give wealthy people a ton of money" so... the future is bleak.

[Daelak]

True. That is because of increased global travel. Shut down the borders early and the more self sufficient your country is, the better you can weather a outbreak and still have the goods your country needs for it's citizens.

Self sufficiency is just a code word for making sure our country is taken back to the days of low-skill, low education, agrarian economy where you may have been an average earner. Stop projecting your insecurities and limited skillset as a human onto the global economy.