Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Corvus]

Probably because chinese factories are going back to 100% capacity, is my guess

Chinese factories going back to 100% doesn't mean much if the world economy goes down the drain and there is nobody around to buy most of their products.

[Omega10]

Well the fact that we had no wild swings means that we could finally see the cats body get a break for a while...till unemployment numbers come out...

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I am hoping that we are coming close to the bottom. I think the bottom will be below 15000, but this may be a sign that the bottom will not be too much less than 15000.

The strength and stabilization of the tech industry is somewhat reassuring. Basically, our economy can limp along with Google, Microsoft, and Comcast providing our internet, Amazon, Walmart and Costco providing our day to day goods, and basic utility companies providing everything else. It's not much to fall back on, but it sounds like a sturdy backbone.

[Zaydin]

Chinese factories going back to 100% doesn't mean much if the world economy goes down the drain and there is nobody around to buy most of their products.

I imagine borders being closed will probably not help, either.

[Zan15]

Goldman Sachs predicts 2.25 million Americans filed initial unemployment claims this week

That's insane ..


Me and my brother are betting big on airline bailouts .. it's like gambling at this point

But hey why not 10k each yesterday...

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I am hoping that we are coming close to the bottom. I think the bottom will be below 15000, but this may be a sign that the bottom will not be too much less than 15000.

The strength and stabilization of the tech industry is somewhat reassuring. Basically, our economy can limp along with Google, Microsoft, and Comcast providing our internet, Amazon, Walmart and Costco providing our day to day goods, and basic utility companies providing everything else. It's not much to fall back on, but it sounds like a sturdy backbone.

I think we will level off around here and see a sustained little bounce ..then the unemployment picture will start to be clear and we will see more down down down from here . Mitigated by how many trillions they throw at the newly unemployed will say how much.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

I mean we are probably in position for some gains today as long as someone or something nutty doesn't happen. Governments and banks are dumping tons of cash into economies across the world. Probably only short term ones though.. eventually job numbers and real impact of so many being unemployed combined with a lot of the working people having to sit at the house doing nothing will ripple for months to come and probably a few deep knife slashes when the news first hits.

[Kasierith]

Goldman Sachs predicts 2.25 million Americans filed initial unemployment claims this week

That's insane ..


Me and my brother are betting big on airline bailouts .. it's like gambling at this point

But hey why not 10k each yesterday...

Not sure about the airlines. I haven't really looked at their financials, but my initial concern is that there's a lot more cross competition. My confidence in Boeing is knowing that the US isn't going to risk losing a major strategic asset and gamble on whatever comes next working. There's no domestic competitor in the US that can readily step in and take its place.. meaning that there will be vulnerability overseas which the US would have to deal with or simply let dominate American commercial fleets which have such a significant influence in international trade. If you throw big in one, there's no point where the government or banks say this absolutely cannot fail.

[Breccia]

eventually job numbers

See, I don't get this.

We all know the job numbers are going to suck elephant scrotum. Does the official reveal change anything? If we know jobless claims are going to spike by the millions, why does waiting for BLS to Control-R make sense? The DOW is a predictive force, not a government printout.

[kaelleria]

These are likely to be the worst job numbers of any of our life times coming up... I don't think most of the market gets that.

[hellhamster]

I have to fill out a US tax form if I buy US stocks as a non US citizen, can anyone confirm?

[Breccia]

I have to fill out a US tax form if I buy US stocks as a non US citizen, can anyone confirm?

I believe it's called "capital gains" which are taxed, so, I 95% confirm.

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Alright! Finally enough good news so that ah goddammit



Eh, at this point, I'll take "only down a little = flat" over what we've seen too much recently.

[Zan15]

See, I don't get this.

We all know the job numbers are going to suck elephant scrotum. Does the official reveal change anything? If we know jobless claims are going to spike by the millions, why does waiting for BLS to Control-R make sense? The DOW is a predictive force, not a government printout.

because knowing the right number as soon as possible is ripping the band aid off all at once.

waiting for huge adjustments down the road in revision 1 and 2 and then the big yearly revision ends up causing more volatility as people second guess every number coming out of the administration (not that they don't already)

DOW is a predictive force but is controlled by a reactive population unfortunately.

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I have to fill out a US tax form if I buy US stocks as a non US citizen, can anyone confirm?

You should really contact an online broker and ask them directly with information on exactly what country you are from.

but the answer is , yes or/and no. (see easy right?)

Depends on how you buy them and what your actual classification of "non citizen" (resident alien or nonresident alien)..

Then it depends on your country, if you don't pay US taxes you are sure to pay your countries taxes on the gain.


Most brokers will have you fill out form W-8BEN (I think that's the one I searched my online broker real quick) but it does not automatically mean you will have to pay the actual taxes but they do track just in case.

Dividends will almost always be taxed, thus the real reason why they have you fill out the forms, but there are exceptions around home country and their rate higher or lower.

You can always ADR's locally....but that is even more confusing....

buy https://www.investopedia.com/investi...tary-receipts/

[Breccia]

DOW is a predictive force but is controlled by a reactive population unfortunately.]

Okay valid, but what happened at 11AM that

Trump is going off the rails in this press conference...

Oh. That. Hmm.

Also:

1) Coal begs on its hands and knees for more money.

In the letter, dated on Wednesday, the National Mining Association asked Trump, House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to ensure that “coal companies have access to the necessary cash flow they need to continue operations.”

It asked for Trump to take executive action to keep coal-fired power plants running, and asked Congress to “suspend or reduce” royalties on mining and cut taxes and fees the industry pays for things like health assistance to victims of black lung disease and cleanups of former mines.

Okay no offense coal companies, but...actually plenty of offense, your industry is horrifying and already got multiple bailouts...but the number of people who just got furloughed, laid off and/or fired wouldn't blink if every single person in the coal industry all filed their black slips at once.

"Black slips?"

It's like a pink slip, but it comes with free lung cancer.

2) Using the official language of the administration, the WH moves the tax deadline to July 15, possibly letting some money stay in the economy longer...even though, you know you have to pay it eventually, spending it seems like a bad idea.

"You linked a tweet."

Like I said, official language of the administration.

3) Trump invokes war powers or at least told Schumer he would.

4) And the big one, Goldman Sachs now projects -24% GDP next quarter.

Let's see how the DOW handles this.

[Rasulis]

I am hoping that we are coming close to the bottom. I think the bottom will be below 15000, but this may be a sign that the bottom will not be too much less than 15000.

The strength and stabilization of the tech industry is somewhat reassuring. Basically, our economy can limp along with Google, Microsoft, and Comcast providing our internet, Amazon, Walmart and Costco providing our day to day goods, and basic utility companies providing everything else. It's not much to fall back on, but it sounds like a sturdy backbone.

Tech is different from other sectors. In a world of single digit profit margins, tech is full of companies with double digit profit margins. Apple and Microsoft net profit margins in 4th quarter 2019 were 21% and 33% respectively. When they said that their revenue won’t meet expectations, that do no mean that they are suddenly unprofitable. They are still profitable. In fact, by other sectors standard, they are highly profitable. That just meant that their revenue will be less than the projected numbers. Just for comparison, Walmart net profit margin for 4th quarter 2019 was 2.77%.

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I believe it's called "capital gains" which are taxed, so, I 95% confirm.

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Alright! Finally enough good news so that ah goddammit



Eh, at this point, I'll take "only down a little = flat" over what we've seen too much recently.

Yesterday's gains were fueled by energy and tech. Oil is heading down again after yesterday's gain, so energy sector is following suit. Tech appears to be stable at the moment.

[Zan15]

Predictions are Trump is on track to break another Obama low


Goldman Sachs economists forecast an unprecedented 24% decline in second-quarter gross domestic product, following a 6% decline in the first quarter, based on the economy’s sudden and historic shutdown as the country responds to the coronavirus pandemic.

The economists then expect a bounce-back of 12% in the third quarter and 10% in the fourth quarter, but unemployment will surge to 9%.
They also expect GDP to contract by 3.8% for the full year on an annual average basis, and 3.1% on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis. —Patti Domm


Obama's lowest -2.5% for his First year in office.


Trump might be on track to have an lower overall GDP than Obama's first term and full 8 years.

Debt total, god based on everything proposed....he could beat Obama's 8 years in 4

[Low Hanging Fruit]

Predictions are Trump is on track to break another Obama low


Goldman Sachs economists forecast an unprecedented 24% decline in second-quarter gross domestic product, following a 6% decline in the first quarter, based on the economy’s sudden and historic shutdown as the country responds to the coronavirus pandemic.

The economists then expect a bounce-back of 12% in the third quarter and 10% in the fourth quarter, but unemployment will surge to 9%.
They also expect GDP to contract by 3.8% for the full year on an annual average basis, and 3.1% on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis. —Patti Domm


Obama's lowest -2.5% for his First year in office.


Trump might be on track to have an lower overall GDP than Obama's first term and full 8 years.

Debt total, god based on everything proposed....he could beat Obama's 8 years in 4

Guess this is why you don't give massive corporate tax cuts on the bet everything can only get awsomer.

[Omega10]

Tech is different from other sectors. In a world of single digit profit margins, tech is full of companies with double digit profit margins. Apple and Microsoft net profit margins in 4th quarter 2019 were 21% and 33% respectively. When they said that their revenue won’t meet expectations, that do no mean that they are suddenly unprofitable. They are still profitable. In fact, by other sectors standard, they are highly profitable. That just meant that their revenue will be less than the projected numbers. Just for comparison, Walmart net profit margin for 4th quarter 2019 was 2.77%.

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Thank you for this. I feel very reassured. The American economy will fall quite a bit it seems, but there IS a stable bottom that can be relied upon.

I can envision next Spring devoted to Americans rebuilding our infrastructure with government money, and corporations building factories in the US to augment the ones in China so that we have backup sources of supplies to use as needed. We'll have new social and societal rules to deal with a post-virus world, but I can see a glimmer of hope for success. Or at least survival!

[Zan15]

Guess this is why you don't give massive corporate tax cuts on the bet everything can only get awsomer.

to be fair how would he know infrastructure....no wait...healthcare....no wait....the economy would be so hard???

[Low Hanging Fruit]

to be fair how would he know infrastructure....no wait...healthcare....no wait....the economy would be so hard???

Prepare for the worse.

It is pretty obvious now the whole structure of this economy is held up by the tiniest of threads and just waiting to snap whenever disaster strikes.

[Zan15]

Tech is different from other sectors. In a world of single digit profit margins, tech is full of companies with double digit profit margins. Apple and Microsoft net profit margins in 4th quarter 2019 were 21% and 33% respectively. When they said that their revenue won’t meet expectations, that do no mean that they are suddenly unprofitable. They are still profitable. In fact, by other sectors standard, they are highly profitable. That just meant that their revenue will be less than the projected numbers. Just for comparison, Walmart net profit margin for 4th quarter 2019 was 2.77%.
.

Well I am not so rosy about these companies.

double digit profit margins can quickly become tiny or negative. Especially since these companies flushed with cash will be expected to not lay off people because of the very bad press it will be for them.


How many high margin phones do you think they will be selling if we have 10% unemployment?

Msft might benefit short term, but with 10-15 million less workers using their software at businesses that is a major hit to revenue.

With these reduced revenue and profit projections, they all of a sudden in the short term become overpriced stocks. P/E's exploding.

They might not be as risky and won't see anywhere near the impact other industries and companies have but they are far from safe havens.


Walmart is more stable believe it or not. That is what you get with Consumer Staples industry sector.

Those low profit margins really don't move much even with large impact scenarios in this industry. Even if you look at 2008-2009 they really hardly budged. Only thing that effects them is poor management vs competition which they have done a great job turning that around vs amazon.


https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...profit-margins
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...-profit-margin


because of the sheer trillions of products sold a year they have such great ability to fractionally increase prices to increase margins at a level consumers would not even notice making up for lost customer traffic because of unemployment

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welp one good thing about the media and democratic attack on airlines doing so much stock buybacks and exec pay then crying for bailouts.....

other companies are rushing to pay and give quick economic help, bonuses and temporary raises to get good press.

Of course this will mostly be funded by the money they saved in taxes over the last two years




https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/walm...mic-2020-03-20

Hourly workers at Walmart (NYSE: WMT) are being given a "mini stimulus package" as the retail giant said it would distribute nearly $550 million worth of bonuses to them as a reward for the work they've done during the coronavirus pandemic.

Walmart's full-time hourly employees will receive a $300 bonus; part-time workers will get a $150 bonus. The total amount paid will equal $345 million, and the retailer is accelerating the payment of planned quarterly bonuses of $180 million.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/targ...-shopping.html
Target is increasing hourly workers’ wages by $2 an hour until at least May 2.
The retailer is paying bonuses of $250 to $1,500 to 20,000 hourly employees who oversee store departments.


etc etc dozens of biggies are announcing today

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Welp looks like everyone took their profits and went home for the looooooooooooooong weekend

[Breccia]

Welp looks like everyone took their profits and went home for the looooooooooooooong weekend

What are you talking abooooh, right, there it is. -913 used to be pretty bad. Now it's like "hold my malaria meds".