Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Belize]

What are you talking abooooh, right, there it is. -913 used to be pretty bad. Now it's like "hold my malaria meds".

BTW if anyone is interested, malaria meds taste fucking terrible when you're a child that can't swallow pills whole.

[Masark]

We all know the job numbers are going to suck elephant scrotum.

Actually, elephants don't have scrotums. Their testicles are internal, like in aquatic mammals, some of which they're fairly closely related to.

It's really a much better design than this dangling business we have that leaves them vulnerable to kicks and other trauma.

</tangent>

[kaid]

BTW if anyone is interested, malaria meds taste fucking terrible when you're a child that can't swallow pills whole.

To this day I remember the taste of having to chew penicillin pills due to a massive strep throat case when I was little. The taste was almost indescribably bad.

[Masark]

BTW if anyone is interested, malaria meds taste fucking terrible when you're a child that can't swallow pills whole.

Hence why the adults liked to take them with gin.

[Rasulis]

Net profit margin for Walmart, Apple, Microsoft, Oracle, Google. With the exception of Google, Apple, Microsoft and Oracle did not budge much either during the 2008 - 2009 recession. For the most part, tech companies are pretty recession proof. After all these are the survivors of the 2000 dot.com bust.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/s...APL:ORCL:GOOGL

[kaelleria]

BTW if anyone is interested, malaria meds taste fucking terrible when you're a child that can't swallow pills whole.

They're pretty gross even whole...

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Microsoft will be fine throughout this... Teams usage jumped 40% this week alone.

Microsoft and Apple both have more cash on hand than several small nationstates so I'm pretty sure they'll be good for the duration.

[Omega10]

What are you talking abooooh, right, there it is. -913 used to be pretty bad. Now it's like "hold my malaria meds".

Yeah but it did not go 1500 down before rising to just 900 down. The market was much more stable than in the past. It is less frenetic and less desperate.

So yesterday was tame, and today was reasonably stable. It's a step in the right direction?

[Rasulis]

Yeah but it did not go 1500 down before rising to just 900 down. The market was much more stable than in the past. It is less frenetic and less desperate.

So yesterday was tame, and today was reasonably stable. It's a step in the right direction?

More like the calm before the next storm.

How Low Can Oil Go? One Forecast Sees $5 a Barrel

[BeepBoo]

It is pretty obvious now the whole structure of this economy is held up by the tiniest of threads and just waiting to snap whenever disaster strikes.

This is literally any and every economy. We don't stockpile metric tons of goods (as a society; plenty of preppers out there getting off on their surplus I bet, though) and we don't have enough production without people actively working to keep the pace. It doesn't matter what form it takes, what economic system is used, etc. The world isn't prepared to grind to a halt and survive like nothing has happened for a month+.

[jeezusisacasual]

This is literally any and every economy. We don't stockpile metric tons of goods (as a society; plenty of preppers out there getting off on their surplus I bet, though) and we don't have enough production without people actively working to keep the pace. It doesn't matter what form it takes, what economic system is used, etc. The world isn't prepared to grind to a halt and survive like nothing has happened for a month+.

People forget that we as a world got used to having constant unfettered supply lines and now it will be very apparent what happens when those are disrupted. I asked my brother whom is in South Dakota when was the last time he could not get Tomatoes in Winter? He had no response because it has been largely forgotten. Life has been good here in Australia like it normally is but i worry for the hourly employees whom will be up shit creek.

Here is a solid article regarding Corporate Bonds

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ho...?mod=home-page

[Zan15]

looks like we just graduated from the dead cats bounce over the last few weeks to.....


DEATH CROSS!!!!

Didn't think we were that close....eeeek


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...?mod=home-page


The Dow’s last death cross appeared on Dec. 19, 2018, after the Dow had dropped 13.1% from its then-record close on Oct. 3, 2018. The Dow bottomed just three days later on Dec. 24 at 21,792.20, or 6.6% below the Dec. 19 close.


The one before that appeared on Jan. 13, 2016, after falling 9.9% from its Nov. 3, 2015 peak. The Dow fell another 3.0% before bottoming four weeks later, on Feb. 11.

[Breccia]

DEATH CROSS!!!!

It's a large image, but, this is the last Death Cross, Dec 2018. Hint: this thread.

[Omega10]

looks like we just graduated from the dead cats bounce over the last few weeks to.....


DEATH CROSS!!!!

Didn't think we were that close....eeeek


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-...?mod=home-page


The Dow’s last death cross appeared on Dec. 19, 2018, after the Dow had dropped 13.1% from its then-record close on Oct. 3, 2018. The Dow bottomed just three days later on Dec. 24 at 21,792.20, or 6.6% below the Dec. 19 close.


The one before that appeared on Jan. 13, 2016, after falling 9.9% from its Nov. 3, 2015 peak. The Dow fell another 3.0% before bottoming four weeks later, on Feb. 11.

So if I understand the article, we are almost done with the sell off. Maybe another 10% or so? This would leave the DOW bottoming at around 17k, which is a lot more optimistic than what I was thinking. Am I reading the article wrong?

[Breccia]

This would leave the DOW bottoming at around 17k, which is a lot more optimistic than what I was thinking.

That's the first half of 2016, right there. Trump would be in the hole.

[Omega10]

More like the calm before the next storm.

How Low Can Oil Go? One Forecast Sees $5 a Barrel

Low oil prices means low gasoline prices and heating prices for the foreseeable future. Well VERY low oil prices

I am thinking that yeah, this IS the "eye of the hurricane". But it seems like the market has mostly bottomed out, and there is only another 3 or 4 thousand points left to drop before stability. My preference is that the sooner we get to stability, the sooner we can get to recovery and moving on.

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That's the first half of 2016, right there. Trump would be in the hole.

From a political standpoint, the exact number that the DOW is at is no longer important. Trump, and Trump supporters, were quite emphatic and emotional about how the DOW is doing SO MUCH BETTER under Trump than under Obama. It won't even be close.

The easy part of the upcoming campaign will be coming up with negative ads to run against Trump. Unfortunately, this is an important part of any successful campaign.

[Masark]

Low oil prices means low gasoline prices and heating prices for the foreseeable future. Well VERY low oil prices

I am thinking that yeah, this IS the "eye of the hurricane". But it seems like the market has mostly bottomed out, and there is only another 3 or 4 thousand points left to drop before stability. My preference is that the sooner we get to stability, the sooner we can get to recovery and moving on.

Yeah, but part of the reason why oil prices are cratering is dropping demand due to CV (IEA figures that oil demand is down by about 2.5M barrels per day and isn't expecting demand to recover to previous levels until next year), in addition to the increasing supply due to KSA/RUS feuding.

So even though its cheap, CV is going to prevent additional use to take advantage of that, so it isn't going to be much of an economic boon to the oil-using non-O&G sectors you're hoping will prop up the economy.

[Omega10]

Yeah, but part of the reason why oil prices are cratering is dropping demand due to CV (IEA figures that oil demand is down by about 2.5M barrels per day and isn't expecting demand to recover to previous levels until next year), in addition to the increasing supply due to KSA/RUS feuding.

So even though its cheap, CV is going to prevent additional use to take advantage of that, so it isn't going to be much of an economic boon to the oil-using non-O&G sectors you're hoping will prop up the economy.

I had to think about what you meant by this, and I agree 100% with your point. It won't help fuel a great recovery due to CV restrictions, which I think is the point of your comment.

But it will mean lower winter heating bills and lower summer AC bills, which will make it easier for people to get through the worst parts of the downturn period. Since there will be far fewer miles driven, I agree that there will be very muted benefits from lower gasoline prices.

[D Luniz]

More like the calm before the next storm.

How Low Can Oil Go? One Forecast Sees $5 a Barrel

Yet somehow, I'm sure I'll still be paying over $1.50/gal if it did drop that low.

[Masark]

I had to think about what you meant by this, and I agree 100% with your point. It won't help fuel a great recovery due to CV restrictions, which I think is the point of your comment.

But it will mean lower winter heating bills and lower summer AC bills, which will make it easier for people to get through the worst parts of the downturn period.

1. Yes.

2. Sure, but we're closing in on the end of winter, so most people have probably already bought much of their heating oil supplies for this half of the year, so they're not going to be able to reap much benefits there unless the low prices hold for the rest of the year. And it isn't likely to help with AC costs, because most AC units are electric AFAIK and basically no generating stations are oil fired anymore.

While natural gas prices are also dropping (though less so than oil has. NG is about 2/3rds what it was in December, whereas oil is closer to 1/3rd), they were already very low and I don't see it as likely that electric companies are going to cut rates and pass along the savings when they have relatively recent or near-ish term capital costs to deal with.

[Omega10]

1. Yes.

2. Sure, but we're closing in on the end of winter, so most people have probably already bought much of their heating oil supplies for this half of the year, so they're not going to be able to reap much benefits there unless the low prices hold for the rest of the year. And it isn't likely to help with AC costs, because most AC units are electric AFAIK.

While natural gas prices are also dropping (though less so than oil has. NG is about 2/3rds what it was in December, whereas oil is closer to 1/3rd), they were already very low and I don't see it as likely that electric companies are going to cut rates and pass along the savings when they have relatively recent or near-ish term capital costs to deal with.

I was thinking about next winter. It seems like the low prices, and the CV, will both still be around for Thanksgiving and Christmas of this year.

All in all, I am seeing your point more and more. Good news: gas prices are low. Bad news: no one is driving anywhere since there is no where to go.