Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Draco-Onis]

No they aren't.

I wouldn't bother he thinks math and statistics are fake news no point in arguing with him on those subjects.

[PC2]

No they aren't.

Yeah it is because projection can't tell you how the future will unfold because it has no way factoring in what new behaviours and solutions people will implement tomorrow, next week, next month, etc.

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I wouldn't bother he thinks math and statistics are fake news no point in arguing with him on those subjects.

No you're misunderstanding my point, I'm saying math and statistics can't be used to tell you the future. It's been a common misconception century after century that "if we just get more data then society will be predictable", unfortunately that is based on a misunderstanding and will never be right.

[Draco-Onis]

No you're misunderstanding my point, I'm saying math and statistics can't be used to tell you the future. It's been a common misconception century after century that "if we just get more data then society will be predictable", unfortunately that is based on a misunderstanding and will never be right.

It's a prediction of the future based on data available and that data is often used to fast track and curb problems so that prediction does not occur. So what you are saying are fake in reality are useful tools scientists and mathematicians use all the time to save countless lives. So it is your misunderstanding of something which can be grasped rather easily by most people, if then else is not a complex or abstract idea.

[Poopymonster]

Anyway, back to India - they are fucked. And I'm seeing a news article about how Russia has less cases than the Netherlands. Probably because they aren't reporting and/or not testing.

Shooting them was an option.

[PC2]

It's a prediction of the future based on data available and that data is often used to fast track and curb problems so that prediction does not occur. So what you are saying are fake in reality are useful tools scientists and mathematicians use all the time to save countless lives. So it is your misunderstanding of something which can be grasped rather easily by most people, if then else is not a complex or abstract idea.

Sure use it as 'useful tool' as much as you want, just don't pawn off a future prediction like "1 billion to be infected" as if it's based on scientific authority and fact.

[Draco-Onis]

Sure use it as 'useful tool' as much as you want, just don't pawn off a future prediction like "1 billion to be infected" as if it's based on scientific authority and fact.

It is a fact if the current trend holds and no measures are taken while it could be off by a certain factor it's a warning for people to take action. By your logic we should say fuck it let's get everyone infected and see if that number is right. I would hate to be under your government you would let countless people die because of your hate of statistical analysis.

[Puupi]

Well this thread went full retard in the past couple of pages. o_O

[Forogil]

Read the coments on that article, it seems he has some epidemiologists subscriving that article.

Well, trust but verify:

The main epidemiological supporter seems to be Carl Juneau, who states he has a PhD with specialization in epidemiology.
However, he mostly seems to be working on getting people to exercise on Dr. Muscle (not saying that it's a bad idea for the US; but a bit different topic).

There are others that claim that the critique of the Imperial College paper is unfounded - and seeing that it was written by Nassim Taleb I would agree, Taleb is fun to read; but hardly an expert of everything he himself thinks.

[Draco-Onis]

Well this thread went full retard in the past couple of pages. o_O

Welcome to United States right wing in 2020 science, math and statistics are fake.

[Fuiking]

My region, Limburg Dutch and Belgian is being hit particularly hard. Glad we closed our borders yesterday.

Rutte's government is not going to survive this regardless with the amount of money they pump in (we are getting full pay in NL for a month)

hope that government dies a horrible dead. Rutte and his cabinet has been too lax in its measures.

[PC2]

It is a fact if the current trend holds and no measures are taken while it could be off by a certain factor it's a warning for people to take action. By your logic we should say fuck it let's get everyone infected and see if that number is right. I would hate to be under your government you would let countless people die because of your hate of statistical analysis.

I'm not sure what you are talking about. If I were the leader I would advocate for problem solving based discussions as opposed to discussions based on future speculation and prophecy. On GenOT it's mostly about the latter.

[Draco-Onis]

I'm not sure what you are talking about. If I were the leader I would advocate for problem solving based discussions as opposed to discussions based on future speculation and prophecy.

We know the rate of spread and historical data based on past viruses, a junior high school student could come up with that graph. Again if you were a leader you would make decisions that aren't based on science, facts, statistics or math most of your population would die.

[Crissi]

I'm not sure what you are talking about. If I were the leader I would advocate for problem solving based discussions as opposed to discussions based on future speculation and prophecy.

In epidemiology, problem solving is deeply intertwined with future predictions, because the entire POINT is to prevent the worst case scenario. You cant formulate a plan to minimize thingd without first modeling that worst case scenario.

You have to know how a thing will eventually potentially affect a population. Your way is reactionary, not preventative. Reactionary is always going to get more people killed.

[Forogil]

We won't. There's already people that have had the virus and recovered from it without ever being tested, there are people that have it now that are never going to be tested for it, and there are people in the future that will get it and not be tested.

We will do random surveys to see how many were infected, as WHO have a protocol in place for that, anti-bodies to test, and some countries have signed up for it.

Similarly as polling it will not be 100% accurate - but good enough to understand if we currently had 300k cases, 1 million, or more.

[Kiri]

Yeah it is because projection can't tell you how the future will unfold because it has no way factoring in what new behaviours and solutions people will implement tomorrow, next week, next month, etc.

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No you're misunderstanding my point, I'm saying math and statistics can't be used to tell you the future. It's been a common misconception century after century that "if we just get more data then society will be predictable", unfortunately that is based on a misunderstanding and will never be right.

So, um, that's exactly what projections are meant to do, so what exactly is the problem?
Especially in this case, these models aren't necessarily meant to accurately predict the future or anything like that, they are meant to give us an idea how things will develop if certain actions are taken or not taken. I doubt you will find a serious scientist claiming otherwise.

As always, the truth is neither 'totally accurate prediction of the future' nor 'completely useless pseudo-science'. Models, like the ones made for the Corona virus, are designed to help people make decisions. You need a model depicting the curve that shows how a healthcare system can't stomach it in order to convince decision makers to take action to flatten it. In many cases, models like that are made with the express intent of them not coming to pass - which is also why they are suffering in this day and age. In times of sensationalist headlines, people want accurate predictions, want to believe in those. And when, say, an economist warns of a depression and urges a government to take action to prevent that, then that will only lead to people thinking he failed if depression is actually averted.
Same is true here. These models are designed to show how things would develop without proper decisions being made and solutions being found in order to help make decisions and find solutions. But without them, people would just see those first single-digit numbers of cases and think it's no big deal, not even worth thinking about them.

[omeomorfismo]

No the world isn't probabilistic at all, it's entirely deterministic and it's evolution is unpredictable in principle.

let me guess. you were sleeping during physics classes (or you didnt never meet quantum physics)?

[Draco-Onis]

let me guess. you were sleeping during physics classes (or you didnt never meet quantum physics)?

Physics, math, statistics, biology basically he slept through all of the science stuff.

[PC2]

In epidemiology, problem solving is deeply intertwined with future predictions, because the entire POINT is to prevent the worst case scenario. You cant formulate a plan to minimize thingd without first modeling that worst case scenario.

You have to know how a thing will eventually potentially affect a population.

Right just don't make a model that assumes that the virus will keep evolving forward in time as it has in the past. It won't, the situation will change in ways that cannot be factored into a model and it is dangerous to assume that we can rely on historical generalizations.

[szechuan]

Right just don't make a model that assumes that the virus will keep evolving forward in time as it has in the past.

Viruses always evolve forward in time.

[alexw]

Numbers there are huge... however average age is like close to 80 and almost all had other illness, they could very well die from normal pneumonia or flu... Italy have one of the oldest population, thats why they have so many deaths... only issue with this virus is no vaccine (like flu)/tested treatment and that is highly contagious, other then that its just like slightly worse cold... i personally think in some countrys they go way to far with limiting what you can do or not... for example our country is Italy's neighbor we dont have even 400 cases and i think it is 1 dead and they are thinking about locking stuff down and limit movement to areas where you live. Its fear mongering at this point... i get social distancing and being vigilant and clean you hands... but with few 100 cases and 1 dead locking everything down is way to much...

At the rate of growth it won't be long until its thousands per day.

As for where you live no its not fearmongering. You don't recognize what's going on. You have 400 reported cases right now. When Italy initiated its lock down there were only 9,000 cases. Now there are 53,000.

If your country leaves initiating its lock down until it also has thousands of confirmed cases then it will already be too late, and in 2-3 weeks time it will be in exactly the same place as Italy.

The lockdown needs to happen now before the disease can reach a point where its able to escalate out of control. That means not locking down tomorrow or the day after, but today, now.