Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Lenonis]

he Carpenters and laborers union have just decided to walk off a ton of considered essential construction jobs when they heard they would get their full pay on Unemployment.

Suuuuuuuuure they did. Cause you can totally get unemployment when you quit. (Hint -- you don't). Stop making up stories to spew your talking points.

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This was to be expected, the bill does introduce this loophole people will be all to happy to exploit, but that's life - you can't be on top of everything.

No. It. Doesn't. You don't get unemployment if you quit.

[Gaidax]

I don't see the issue. Many of the places are just staying open for greed and/or to keep employees earning wages through this thing putting them and their families in danger. If they can not work and collect their wages that is a good thing.

Many places also stay open because that's their only hope of survival.

Company I worked for before - a small travel communication business that in its glory days had about 50 workers and already had to downsize to about 10 guys even before due to failed venture is literally now fighting for survival. It's not the matter of greed, I still have friends there - even before this shit hit they already were reduced to a tiny office - 2 rooms in co-working building with CEO (if you can even call it that) sitting with half of them in the same room.

And now this shit hit. The guys I know closely there are a developer, who is almost 50 years old and a family to feed, a CEO - 48, divorced with 2 early teen daughters paying alimony and a finance guy also in his late 40s with a family as well.

They all literally battle to keep the ship afloat now - it's not greed. Their business has cash for a matter of maybe 2 months if that and if it fails all of them will be on the street and it's not easy to find a new job when you are almost 50 years old and the whole world is going to hell.

That greed?

And there are many like them. I just got lucky I quit a year ago and now work in some big ass fintech corporation with 15k employees in 42 countries - I am covered, I can work from home no problem and get my full wage and I had a pleasure of our CEO reporting that they pledge to both keep everyone and they see this as a great opportunity too to expedite shift to cloud-based SAS solutions for the banks and financial institutions (our customers) who might want to save $$ short term.

But you have so many guys in SMBs who are totally fucked with bleak prospects.

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No. It. Doesn't. You don't get unemployment if you quit.

KEKW... You get unemployment if you're "fired".

Know how this works - your employer "fires" you, you get benefits for however many months you do (while you keep actually voluntary working), then you get hired back by the same company, just a bit different legal entity (because registering new company is easy as fuck).

I had this happen to me back in my youth when I worked in some small startup that got on hard times. You do not realize how widespread this practice is.

Law? Fraud? Who the fuck gives a damn - you can bet your ass in that small company example above - this is exactly what CEO will do and the workers will go for it, because they need that workplace to survive - they don't have anywhere else to go.

These SMBs are the backbone of the economy, they pay taxes in fullest and they hire workers locally, unlike your big ass corporations who have a good chunk of their human resources in some 3rd world shithole, because they can get 20 people there for the cost one locally and are busy finding new and creative ways to dodge taxes every day.

[Lenonis]

KEKW... You get unemployment if you're "fired".

Know how this works - your employer "fires" you, you get benefits for however many months you do (while you keep actually working), then you get hired back by the same company, just a bit different legal entity (because registering new company is easy as fuck).

Well, the person you were responding to claim everyone just walked off they job because they'd rather collect unemployment. What you are talking about is just straight up illegal fraud and frankly doesn't sound like it should change much now than it would before. That's two entirely different arguments.

[Breccia]

Well, it was good while it lasted. DOWn 1,000 points.

The bill is supposed to pass the House today. Either that jobless report is kicking in, or, everyone knew it would pass and bought accordingly.

[Gaidax]

Well, the person you were responding to claim everyone just walked off they job because they'd rather collect unemployment. What you are talking about is just straight up illegal fraud and frankly doesn't sound like it should change much now than it would before. That's two entirely different arguments.

Your "illegal fraud" does not bother anyone. SMBs literally doing that en-masse and you can't prove shit because they juggle legal entities, so they fire from one company and hire back to another, while in reality it's still effectively the same company.

It's literally a way to keep workforce without paying for it and it is exploited plenty even in the less rainy days.

As for "everyone just walked off their job" - it's the same story literally. If a guy working in a small company comes to the management and asks to be fired, so he can get benefits - he will be, both because he is a friend and because last thing businesses want is to have people go ahead and try getting fired by doing stupid shit.


This reminds me of my first workplace, which was all fine and nice, but very soon I understood this was not for me - so I had an honest talk with a manager that I don't like see myself in this, but I do want all the benefits and we agreed that he fires me, so I can get said benefits.

Boy, you guys... it's as if you did not work one day in your life. I'm 35 years old, I'm already working for a good almost 16 years. I went through all of it - this is how it works, people are not stupid, they totally exploit all the loopholes and benefits.

[Trunksee]

Suuuuuuuuure they did. Cause you can totally get unemployment when you quit. (Hint -- you don't). Stop making up stories to spew your talking points.

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No. It. Doesn't. You don't get unemployment if you quit.

They aren't quiting. They are simply taking themselves out of the pool which they are allowed to do via union rules up here. At anytime they can do this it is part of their collective bargaining agreement as long as they continue to pay their dues.

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Your "illegal fraud" does not bother anyone. SMBs literally doing that en-masse and you can't prove shit because they juggle legal entities, so they fire from one company and hire back to another, while in reality it's still effectively the same company.

It's literally a way to keep workforce without paying for it and it is exploited plenty even in the less rainy days.

As for "everyone just walked off their job" - it's the same story literally. If a guy working in a small company comes to the management and asks to be fired, so he can get benefits - he will be, both because he is a friend and because last thing businesses want is to have people go ahead and try getting fired by doing stupid shit.


This reminds me of my first workplace, which was all fine and nice, but very soon I understood this was not for me - so I had an honest talk with a manager that I don't like see myself in this, but I do want all the benefits and we agreed that he fires me, so I can get said benefits.

Boy, you guys... it's as if you did not work one day in your life. I'm 35 years old, I'm already working for a good almost 16 years. I went through all of it - this is how it works, people are not stupid, they totally exploit all the loopholes and benefits.

Its pretty common practice in construction. It is not worth the legal process to go after a disputed claim. I know a lot of people who do this every winter. People are used to being laid off for a season each year. The problem is this is dissuading investors to continue to spend. Our company just did a 10% pay cut across the board due to this as 5 of our big jobs are shut down by city governments yet the governor is trying to keep construction going. He even sent out a letter to the town telling them during a disaster declaration he has the right to over ride any cities regulations if he deems fit and to reopen all construction as it is the back bone to the economy right now as the only places working. A good company like mine we are following all guidelines put out by osha on how to deal with these situations. We have brought in heated wash stations, cleaning portajons a few times a day with bleach and making sure everyone is safe. The hardest part is PPE as we use a lot of N95 masks on site regularly for standard operations. People will not be inclined to go back to work is the issue and companies wont contest it as it takes lawyers that are not worth paying to force people off of it. The problem then turns 10x worse when projects are delayed and investors pull out of future projects due to projected losses due to delays.

[Lenonis]

Its pretty common practice in construction.

So which is it? They "took themselves out of the pool" (which isn't what you claimed originally) because of the bill that was introduced or that this is a common practice that happens all the time?

Any other parts of your story you'd like to revise while you are at it?

[Trunksee]

So which is it? They "took themselves out of the pool" (which isn't what you claimed originally) because of the bill that was introduced or that this is a common practice that happens all the time?

Any other parts of your story you'd like to revise while you are at it?

The word that went around the job site was that even on unemployment based off the current bill they would get their full pay for 4 months if not more than their full pay if the 600 just gets added on top. It incentivized taking time off just like Graham said. Plus it doesn't enfasize people to reenter the workforce if they are offered to come back to work. I mean if you are getting your full pay to sit at home would you want to go back to work?

[Lenonis]

The word that went around the job site was that even on unemployment based off the current bill they would get their full pay for 4 months if not more than their full pay if the 600 just gets added on top. It incentivized taking time off just like Graham said. Plus it doesn't enfasize people to reenter the workforce if they are offered to come back to work. I mean if you are getting your full pay to sit at home would you want to go back to work?

If someone wants to turn down a permanent job to collect 4 months of unemployment then that's on them and they'll have to deal with the long term issues with that choice. If an employer doesn't want to contest unemployment claims from an employee who quit then that's also on them.

Neither of those is a reason to screw over millions of other people in a time when this income is desperately needed and jobs are going to be hard if not impossible to find.

[Trunksee]

If someone wants to turn down a permanent job to collect 4 months of unemployment then that's on them and they'll have to deal with the long term issues with that choice. If an employer doesn't want to contest unemployment claims from an employee who quit then that's also on them.

Neither of those is a reason to screw over millions of other people in a time when this income is desperately needed and jobs are going to be hard if not impossible to find.

We on the other side are desperately trying to keep a job there for them when the world gets back to normal. Its their choice but what they fail to understand is that by doing this instead of working there may not be a job for them to even come back to if they don't continue to work. Its a delicate balance and we are trying to keep investors engaged so we don't have another 2008 all over again.

[Lenonis]

We on the other side are desperately trying to keep a job there for them when the world gets back to normal. Its their choice but what they fail to understand is that by doing this instead of working there may not be a job for them to even come back to if they don't continue to work. Its a delicate balance and we are trying to keep investors engaged so we don't have another 2008 all over again.

A vast majority of people impacted weren't given a choice. They are just out of a job. Period. You seem to fail to recognize that.

[Zan15]

Whelp my area just took a big hit in the labor force. The Carpenters and laborers union have just decided to walk off a ton of considered essential construction jobs when they heard they would get their full pay on Unemployment. There are a bunch of people now bugging as well around the trades to be laid off for the same reason. This bill is going to cause a huge shit show with union workers now refusing to work as the hall is just letting them do it up here. We are headed right back to 2008 levels if not worse in the construction industry like I feared. Investors are losing it as I speak with a few everyday about why we are unable to still make deadlines with people refusing to work even though legally they still can.

So wait, they are going to walk off their jobs.....and lose health insurance? Thus losing any benefit they get from the extra payments?

Also walking off their jobs in a lot of states automatically make you ineligible for unemployment

People also forget that states can make their own rules in addition to the feds on unemployment eligibility. they are really taking a huge risk in fraud.

I find this hard to believe being anything more than a rumor or a few people doing it.

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The word that went around the job site was that even on unemployment based off the current bill they would get their full pay for 4 months if not more than their full pay if the 600 just gets added on top. It incentivized taking time off just like Graham said. Plus it doesn't enfasize people to reenter the workforce if they are offered to come back to work. I mean if you are getting your full pay to sit at home would you want to go back to work?

health insurance, 401k, benefits.....ect

for extra cash and no guarantee you will be one of the chosen to come back to work???

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Well, it was good while it lasted. DOWn 1,000 points.

The bill is supposed to pass the House today. Either that jobless report is kicking in, or, everyone knew it would pass and bought accordingly.

Or its the standard bear market rally that based on everything I read always happens at least once every major bear market run....and tends to always fail the first time it happens during the down turn.

its like a dead cats bounce on steroids. Looking at 87 and 09 and they both had the same thing, massive rallies that did not hold and another big drop after below previous lows.


But history does not always repeat itself since this one is happening so freaking fast vs 87 and 09....fast meaning the impact on the economy and employment

[Rasulis]

Whelp my area just took a big hit in the labor force. The Carpenters and laborers union have just decided to walk off a ton of considered essential construction jobs when they heard they would get their full pay on Unemployment. There are a bunch of people now bugging as well around the trades to be laid off for the same reason. This bill is going to cause a huge shit show with union workers now refusing to work as the hall is just letting them do it up here. We are headed right back to 2008 levels if not worse in the construction industry like I feared. Investors are losing it as I speak with a few everyday about why we are unable to still make deadlines with people refusing to work even though legally they still can.

They are jumping the gun since the bill still need to go through congress and signed by the President. They also need to talk to their financial adviser, because the math does not work.

How much you get from Unemployment Insurance varies from state to state. MA is the highest at $519 per week. Annualized we are looking at $519 plus $600 and multiplied by 52 weeks which comes out to be $58,188.

I provided a link below which shows base pay for a union/prevailing wage carpenter in CA which is $43.13 per hour plus health, pension, vacation, training, other payment. Annualized the base pay alone comes out to be $89,710.40. If you add all the benefits it comes out to be $133,348.80. Then you have overtime rate (1.5X to 2X), night time rate, weekend rate, etc. Right now with the tight construction labor market, 100k per year take home is easy money.

If you are working for a large construction company like Turner, then you get to participate in their matching 401k on top of the union's defined benefit also. So that's even more money.

https://www.dir.ca.gov/OPRL/2020-1/P...D-023-31-4.pdf

[Breccia]

They are jumping the gun since the bill still need to go through congress and signed by the President.

That's all but assured, tho.

[Rasulis]

Oil is down again. Rig count in the US is down 10% YTD. In the Permian basin the decline is higher at 15% YTD.

On top of all that.

LNG suppliers flood market with excess spot cargoes as demand crumbles

This is kinda funny.

JPMORGAN: The best case scenario for stocks is a Biden presidency with a Republican Senate

A Biden presidency with a divided government would do away with Trump's "randomly-timed disruptions from foreign/trade policy" while keeping his market-friendly economic policies, JPMorgan wrote.

[Resurgo]

Oil is down again. Rig count in the US is down 10% YTD. In the Permian basin the decline is higher at 15% YTD.

On top of all that.

LNG suppliers flood market with excess spot cargoes as demand crumbles

This is kinda funny.

JPMORGAN: The best case scenario for stocks is a Biden presidency with a Republican Senate

Funnier even is that article was written when unemployment was still “low”...

[Rasulis]

This is even funnier.

In a further sign that the U.S. is ready to take production-control steps, a member of the Texas Railroad Commission, the state's oil and gas energy regulator, said there was a possibility that producers in Texas could agree on production cuts in concert with OPEC.

"Those are wholly within state matters ... from a federal level we have no ongoing engagements with OPEC, it's a cartel," a State Department official said in response to questions about commissioner Sitton's statement.

So price fixing and cartel are illegal in the US. But it is okay for Texas to deal independent of the State Government with a foreign cartel? What happened to the free market?

[Gaidax]

So price fixing and cartel are illegal in the US. But it is okay for Texas to deal independent of the State Government with a foreign cartel? What happened to the free market?

I mean, it's absolutely in US oil industry interests as a whole, cartel or not. This price war will put much of US oil industry out of business if it continues.

[Rasulis]

I mean, it's absolutely in US oil industry interests as a whole, cartel or not. This price war will put much of US oil industry out of business if it continues.

I was being sarcastic.

I think cutting production right now is too late. The time for action was back when the oil war started. Instead of claiming that “low oil price is good for American consumers”, the president should have started talking to SA and Russia. Right now global oil overproduction has reached 3 million bpd with global oil storage of over 900 million barrels. At the current rate, we are going to hit 1 billion barrel of global oil storage in April. With all the Asian countries shutting down due to the virus, IEA estimated another 20% drop in global oil consumption (around 20 million bpd).

You can shut down the entire Texas oil & gas production, and it would barely make a dent in the global oil and gas overproduction right now. Let alone the 1billion barrels in storage. The whole damn thing has snowballed out of control right now.

I'll leave this here.

The Department of Energy suspended plans to purchase 77 million barrels of U.S. crude meant to buffer the shale industry because the agency has no way to pay for it. Should funding become available -- via Congress or the agency’s own budget -- the oil buy will resume.

[Breccia]

You can shut down the entire Texas oil & gas production, and it would barely make a dent in the global oil and gas overproduction right now.

If I remember correctly, US is the largest oil producer now, but still outnumbered by Russia and the Saudis combined, so, they're still running the show.

And that last hour or so did not disappoint, a wild ride as promised. 900 DOWn for the day, July 2017 territory. The thread's title remains in full effect even after a historic rally -- to be fair, though, even a world-champion high jumper has problems when he starts six feet under.