Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Forogil]

The success rate of tests is also all over the place from some stuff I've read. A 70% chance of the test working could easily explain a false negative leading to early discharge or a false positive after. (I don't recall her being readmitted and having another bout of symptoms, but the story was not followed up on.)

The conclusion is possible, but 70% seems ridiculously low, the new anti-body tests are claimed to be only 95% accurate, which is a step down from the PCR tests.

However, even if the chance of it working was 99.995% that means that one test in 20,000 might fail and we have done more tests than that.

[Puupi]

Huge increase in cases today in Finland. +267

It has been 70-100 per day for the past week.

Our testing has been very limited though.

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https://www.is.fi/kotimaa/art-2000006464120.html

Worrying info. The Finnish health agency had a video conference with the Shanghai health agency today. They learned that there are lots of people who are declared recovered and have become infected again. So people who have been infected once will need to be tested again.

Not looking good for the immunization theory in action.

[telygroar]

From the brother of guy I know (I dont say a friend cuz I dont like him very much) who work in africa, people drop dead like fly everywhere. They cant even test anything since they dont have the mean to test them at all. :s

[Granyala]

From the brother of guy I know (I dont say a friend cuz I dont like him very much) who work in africa, people drop dead like fly everywhere.

That's hardly anything new in Africa. We all knew that these lands would get hit hardest, no medical facilities to speak of.

[jonnysensible]

That's hardly anything new in Africa. We all knew that these lands would get hit hardest, no medical facilities to speak of.

the interesting thing about parts of Africa is that the rich elite who have spent years looting the place are now stuck there in the same squalid hospitals as everyone else. The flight and travel bans might cause a rethink on spending vital infrustructure money on penthouses, prostitues and luxury goods, then again probably not.

[Puupi]

It is not really possible for you to become infected again if you survive a virus infection.

Yes it is. It's usually just very unlikely.

What is happening is that the disease might stick to one person for up to 5 weeks, of which the person is symptomatic for only 2. So the cases of "reinfection" are really just people getting better and maybe showing negative on the test because on that particular day they were not shedding the virus, and then testing positive again weeks later because the virus wasn't completely gone at the time of the first negative test.

There are both, people showing positive-negative-positive test results and then there are reports of people getting infected and thus becoming sick with symptoms again.

The period of immunity to a certain virus depends on the virus and the immune system and its response of the individual person. Some might be immune for years/forever, some might be immune for weeks or even just days.

[Puupi]

The article you linked doesn't say anything about people getting reinfected again and starting to show symptoms again. It just talks about previously sick people shedding the virus for up to 5 weeks and possibly testing positive again, not about relapsing back to being symptomatic.

That article doesn't, but there are other articles that do say that possibility.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200315_13/

[Granyala]

The flight and travel bans might cause a rethink on spending vital infrustructure money on penthouses, prostitues and luxury goods, then again probably not.

Definitely not.
A few rich will die, some poor guys will be the new rich guys and continue where the old ones left off.

These people never learn.

[Puupi]

https://www.talouselama.fi/uutiset/t...=ampparit:c765

The municipal leaders in Finnish Lapland are demanding that the border with Sweden needs to be closed.

[Santti]

https://www.talouselama.fi/uutiset/t...=ampparit:c765

The municipal leaders in Finnish Lapland are demanding that the border with Sweden needs to be closed.

Let's build a wall, and make Sweden pay for it.

[Puupi]

It is still the same infection that his body didn't completely expell the first time. Unless it is completely new strain of the virus, you will have immunity for it once your immune system has cleaned your body of it.

Yes, you will have immunity for it for X period of time. How long that period is varies a lot.

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We have perfectly good river on the border, let's just blow up the bridges.

You know that's the first thing in Sweden's defense strategy if they end up in a war against Russia btw.

[Deja Thoris]

the interesting thing about parts of Africa is that the rich elite who have spent years looting the place are now stuck there in the same squalid hospitals as everyone else. The flight and travel bans might cause a rethink on spending vital infrustructure money on penthouses, prostitues and luxury goods, then again probably not.

You're kidding right? There's private and public hospitals. I grew up in Africa and as a privelidged white dude I never got treated in anything other than first world standards.

The elite will not be struggling in this. Maybe you should keep your opinions to places you can identify on a map.

[hellhamster]

Considering how low the death percentage to ICU admittances are in certain countries, I think it's safe to say that deaths are not the right metric of measurement. They probably use two death metrics, one for the public to prevent panic, and one real for internal consumption. They are probably attributing deaths to underlying causes, not the virus. For example if a cancer patient with corona dies, the death is attributed to cancer.

[Tuor]

They are probably attributing deaths to underlying causes, not the virus. For example if a cancer patient with corona dies, the death is attributed to cancer.

They already doing that

Google translated
https://sicnoticias.pt/especiais/cor...a-de-meningite

The 14-year-old Ovar who died this weekend is said to have suffered from meningitis.

According to the family, quoted by the Jornal de Notícias this Tuesday, the boy was admitted to the Santa Maria da Feira hospital on Saturday morning with a fever and a serious infection. The clinical picture worsened until she went into septic shock and led to organ failure.

Being from Ovar, doctors ordered Covid-19 to be tested, which was positive, but the autopsy will now have concluded that this was not the cause of the death of the 14-year-old, who is going to bury in Ovar today.

Family members and all those who had contact with the young man will now be tested for the new coronavirus.

Except they not dump to exclude other real causes, in this case covid-19 didn't had any time to kill the kid as quick as it did, so the death was atributed to the other dondiction the kid had.

[Puupi]

Considering how low the death percentage to ICU admittances are in certain countries, I think it's safe to say that deaths are not the right metric of measurement. They probably use two death metrics, one for the public to prevent panic, and one real one for internal consumption. They are probably attributing deaths to underlying causes, not the virus. For example if a cancer patient with corona dies, the death is attributed to cancer.

Sweden for example is only reporting corona deaths if the patient is 1. tested positive for corona 2. dies of pneumonia. Any other cause of death is not attributed to corona officially.

[hellhamster]

Yeah, I think at this point there is no way to pinpoint anything. You could do recovered patients to hospitalizations and ICU entries to ascertain a total dead figure, but that doesn't mean anything either because recovery takes a long time and rate of entry is exponential, not linear.

[Tuor]

Current situation in Portugal:
81087 suspected cases
22858 under authorities vigilance
5518 waiting for lab result
10524 confirmed cases
638 new cases in the last 24h (minus 214 then yeasterday)
266 deaths
20 deaths in the last 24h
75 recovered
1075 at hospital
251 on ICU

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-d...l-em-portugal/
https://covid19.min-saude.pt/wp-cont...m_20200404.pdf

In my town:
2 confirmed cases
1 on ICU
1 death.
https://www.reconquista.pt/articles/...os-do-distrito

[KaPe]

Considering how low the death percentage to ICU admittances are in certain countries, I think it's safe to say that deaths are not the right metric of measurement. They probably use two death metrics, one for the public to prevent panic, and one real for internal consumption. They are probably attributing deaths to underlying causes, not the virus. For example if a cancer patient with corona dies, the death is attributed to cancer.

I mean, it's not like this is some big secret. We've had this happen here, where early on number of deaths would decrease the very same day, because "the patient also had other conditions, so we're not including them anymore". Very convenient way of manipulating the statistics, especially since it's "technically true" that it wasn't solely because of coronavirus. Good job, everyone, we're keeping deaths in single digits.

'Course, after a certain point, the system starts getting overwhelmed, so people will die before they get tested and numbers aren't accurate anymore, without any real need to "improve" the data.

[Draco-Onis]

That's a lie, you've always been a Trump supporter. I'm not sure how he could grow on you any more than he already has.

Maybe he means he will build a bigger shrine to Trump since they only care about making liberals angry not the countless people that will die due to his incompetence and lies. It's fucking insane that even today red states are still thinking this is a blue state problem and doing this lock down but not really lock down thing now. I mean they are exempting churches and even fucking golf courses.

[Belize]

Missouri might end up coming up out of it ok. According to the MSN coronavirus tracker, if you drill down to the state level and choose Missouri, they show that a lot of Missouri counties have zero cases, and many counties have just 1 or 2.

Alabama and Mississippi are going to have troubles. They both have between 1 and 2 thousand cases, but these cases are fairly evenly distributed over the whole state. Only 4 Mississippi counties have zero confirmed cases, and Alabama has only 2 counties with zero confirmed cases. Most counties in both states are past the point of having just 1-4 confirmed cases. The good news for both states is that virus growth will be slow due to each county being fairly sparsely populated. The downside is that it is likely that getting back to zero will also be slow. My prediction is that they will max out later than other parts of the country, and will also recover later. With their governors working hard to maximize the growth of the virus, it is possible that all three of these states will end up coming out of it not well.

You can't have cases if you don't test.

Look at Texas, officially we've only got a few hundred cases, but hospitals are completely slammed. Turns out getting tested here is incredibly difficult.