How the European Union may not survive the Coronavirus

[Mifuyne]

the very reason why the EU will never be like America in this form.

That's a good thing.

[Shadowferal]

*shrugs*
How long can a country stay on lockdown before it breaks?

[Mayhem]

Honestly it wouldn't be a whole lot different. I mean.. that is kind of how it works anyway. Every state kind of just does its own thing. Defense, security, and infrastructure is what pretty much most of what the federal government does. Things I don't really see the EU do. NATO seems to handle defense. Security is pretty much up to individual nation states along with infrastructure.

Uhm and trade? You know, every state would need to make its own trade agreements.

[Acidbaron]

Honestly it wouldn't be a whole lot different. I mean.. that is kind of how it works anyway. Every state kind of just does its own thing. Defense, security, and infrastructure is what pretty much most of what the federal government does. Things I don't really see the EU do. NATO seems to handle defense. Security is pretty much up to individual nation states along with infrastructure.

The US has a trade deal with other nations and states are free to conduct business with individual nations, this is done through diplomatic contacts and is part of the governor state tool set. Federal level trade deals a different beast as it encompasses far more and entire sectors like Oil, metal, Automobile. You also have one military not an army per state.

NATO is the over arching organization that creates a line of communication between nations it does not handle the EU defence. Plenty of joint operations take place between nations without the nato's involvement.

As for your opinion that i did not present a good point, i can lead a horse to water but i cannot make it drink. For that same reason i cannot force you to see why an EU is important in a globalized world. If the connection cannot be made for you personally of how the current dealing of the corona crisis is a disaster due to a lack of a forceful and guiding federal government than i don't know what can, especially if you immediately see it as an attack of sorts is disappointing, since it hardly is a controversial point. Considering even Governors were asking for such a response from the federal government.

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*shrugs*
How long can a country stay on lockdown before it breaks?

That depends on several key factors, your unemployment policies and structure around it both for workers and measures for businesses that are suffering economically.
The credit line your nation has, for how much can your nation borrow at what interest rate over what period, for the EU nations that is over 20 years at a low interest rate of 0.6. Unless you don't fully know how this works all nations function around debt, they simply borrow at an interest rate that is lower than their growth so they can continue to invest and grow.

How much people get from unemployment in Belgium that's 70% of their wage with an additional 5 euros per day and even some more extra's. Some nations go even further in The Netherlands i get 100% of my wage including shift premiums, my only loss there is compensation amount for transportation (gas money so to speak) that's a good 150 euros i would estimate.

To further reduce financial strain, businesses and people are able to get delays on mortgage payments and house among others are still garantueed. Some Insurance agencies are also doing this to a level if you get laid off for health insurance etc.

Some businesses hit extra hard like hotels, restaurants, bars and so forth get additional support. A few thousand euro's depending if they are open through out the entire week or just the weekend. Doubtful it covers the losses especially now during spring but it is something.

Obviously this will not safe everyone, if you were already in bad papers before this started this will most likely not safe you.

After an initial aggressive lock down with only essential businesses allowed to be open (this really means essential as in food, logistics and health only, Sales through delivery were still allowed) we are now slowly after 6 weeks more opening more and more stores.


So depending on your nation a good amount of time, especially for rich developed nations keeping things under lock down for a month or two should be very much possible.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

The US has a trade deal with other nations and states are free to conduct business with individual nations, this is done through diplomatic contacts and is part of the governor state tool set. Federal level trade deals a different beast as it encompasses far more and entire sectors like Oil, metal, Automobile. You also have one military not an army per state.

NATO is the over arching organization that creates a line of communication between nations it does not handle the EU defence. Plenty of joint operations take place between nations without the nato's involvement.

As for your opinion that i did not present a good point, i can lead a horse to water but i cannot make it drink. For that same reason i cannot force you to see why an EU is important in a globalized world. If the connection cannot be made for you personally of how the current dealing of the corona crisis is a disaster due to a lack of a forceful and guiding federal government than i don't know what can, especially if you immediately see it as an attack of sorts is disappointing, since it hardly is a controversial point. Considering even Governors were asking for such a response from the federal government.

Didn't realize this conversation was going to get a Republican vs Democrat type of reaction. Sorry to offend I guess? I don't want to somehow derail this into "America bad" because we it is suppose to be about the EU.

[Acidbaron]

Didn't realize this conversation was going to get a Republican vs Democrat type of reaction. Sorry to offend I guess? I don't want to somehow derail this into "America bad" because we it is suppose to be about the EU.

Seems to me you are the one being offended here, what is no surprise as you read the last few posts from me also as such.

[tromage2]

*shrugs*
How long can a country stay on lockdown before it breaks?

Netherlands has 90 billion to spend.
In a month the government has spend between 5 -10 billion on the corona crisis.

So basicly if the Netherlands will stay in lock down for another 8 months then all social programs stop and mass chaos will arrive.
(And this is a country that has build a big buffer over the years)
And this will also mean that we will not be able to stay in lock down till a vaccine will arrive since that is more then a year away.

[Shadowferal]

Netherlands has 90 billion to spend.
In a month the government has spend between 5 -10 billion on the corona crisis.

So basicly if the Netherlands will stay in lock down for another 8 months then all social programs stop and mass chaos will arrive.
(And this is a country that has build a big buffer over the years)
And this will also mean that we will not be able to stay in lock down till a vaccine will arrive since that is more then a year away.

Follow-up question; several countries have tanked the EU with their economic policies not too long ago (Italy, Spain et al), how long before other countries are in the same economic condition?

[Acidbaron]

Follow-up question; several countries have tanked the EU with their economic policies not too long ago (Italy, Spain et al), how long before other countries are in the same economic condition?

I must have missed that collapse looking at EU forex markets almost daily, when was this collapse suppose to happen?

Also even for countries with weaker economic prospects there's this https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-...nse/economy_en

[Shadowferal]

Are you actually trying to say that Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece never had to face "austerity measures"?
Wow...just wow.

[Mayhem]

Are you actually trying to say that Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece never had to face "austerity measures"?
Wow...just wow.

So austerity measures in member countries are equal to tanking the EU?

[Acidbaron]

Are you actually trying to say that Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece never had to face "austerity measures"?
Wow...just wow.

What Mayhem said, also all EU member states have strict targets to follow, all member states have to present their budget to the EU commission i believe to get reviewed. Those targets are now lifted and more lee way is given due to the economic crisis. If you read the link i provided you earlier you would now this as in the 3 part proposal that is one of the three. What tells me you didn't even glance over it

Another fun fact for you, the whole reason we noticed a problem was presenting itself in Italy was due to these measures being taken. So we didn't get another situation as in Greece. Preventive measures one of the many after the cock up that took place in 2008 with the housing market in the US with all their shitty CDO's and other constructs if you wish the motivation behind these.

You appear to prone to thinking in extremes or the format you obtain your information from is.

[Jessicka]

I must have missed that collapse looking at EU forex markets almost daily, when was this collapse suppose to happen?

Also even for countries with weaker economic prospects there's this https://ec.europa.eu/info/live-work-...nse/economy_en

There's always something new that'll collapse the EU, a lot of people seem desperate to happen, largely because of their own poor decisions in the hope of some form of misplaced retribution.

Yet it just seems to get better by learning from these new challenges.

[Tuor]

Are you actually trying to say that Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Greece never had to face "austerity measures"?
Wow...just wow.

You forgot Ireland, the so called PIIGS, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.

@Acidbaron Just to remember you that here in Portugal we still doing austherity, we got our first superavit in 40 years this year, thanks to a thing called CAPTIVATION's, which is just a form of conditional budget realease. If the goal's for the budget aren't hited, then the money in the captivation isn't realesed at all.

[Crispin]

There's always something new that'll collapse the EU, a lot of people seem desperate to happen, largely because of their own poor decisions in the hope of some form of misplaced retribution.

Yet it just seems to get better by learning from these new challenges.

It's honestly as meaningless as making a similar topic in regards to the US. "When till California break away?!"

Most people realise that the EU is not perfect, but it's still far better than a Europe without it. Not sure what utopia they live, where they expect the EU to handle every single crisis like a champ for all member states. It's never going to happen, but hopefully we'll deal with the next migrant crisis better, and the next pandemic better. Then again, the US havent learned from H1N1 it seems, so I dont expect a new pandemic (If I live to see the next), to be handled perfectly either.

[Acidbaron]

You forgot Ireland, the so called PIIGS, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain.

@Acidbaron Just to remember you that here in Portugal we still doing austherity, we got our first superavit in 40 years this year, thanks to a thing called CAPTIVATION's, which is just a form of conditional budget realease. If the goal's for the budget aren't hited, then the money in the captivation isn't realesed at all.

True, while i am no fan of the issues this brings with the public and the pain it causes for some. Those goals are however needed to build nations like Portugal to a level they are stable. I believe Greece is also tied to a similar system.

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There's always something new that'll collapse the EU, a lot of people seem desperate to happen, largely because of their own poor decisions in the hope of some form of misplaced retribution.

Yet it just seems to get better by learning from these new challenges.

Exactly is learning and each time a problem arises it seems that this issue suddenly no longer repeats itself or less so in the future, the EU has communication problem something they have been working on hard as you can see the measures taken during this crisis, the transparency added to all this for all EU subjects to see is not something you even see from your own national government when they take action.

The problem is the EU can't promote themselves on a national level and the credit of projects or decisions are always hijacked by individuals of national governments, while at the same time they are quick to blame the EU for when things go wrong, the EU after all remains the easiest scapegoat of all.

People also have a weird view of what democracies are, they are not clean, they are chaotic as they are a collection of opposing views, as i clarified earlier in this thread even if we simply look at the group that speaks of themselves as EU skeptics, you'll find that they are not all on the same page.
Another group of people also keeps pointing out that the EU is undemocratic as there isn't enough solidarity, demanding nations to fall in line, what they do what irony. Yet that is exactly what an undemocratic process would be like.

I am however biased as Belgian, as the EU has always allowed us through our diplomatic channels to fight above our weight class so to speak.

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It's honestly as meaningless as making a similar topic in regards to the US. "When till California break away?!"

Most people realise that the EU is not perfect, but it's still far better than a Europe without it. Not sure what utopia they live, where they expect the EU to handle every single crisis like a champ for all member states. It's never going to happen, but hopefully we'll deal with the next migrant crisis better, and the next pandemic better. Then again, the US havent learned from H1N1 it seems, so I dont expect a new pandemic (If I live to see the next), to be handled perfectly either.

And with respect to our resident Americans here, but if we look at this crisis both the health and economic side of it. You cannot say that as a regular citizen part of the worker class you would be better served in the US than in the EU right now.

[ati87]

It's honestly as meaningless as making a similar topic in regards to the US. "When till California break away?!"

Most people realise that the EU is not perfect, but it's still far better than a Europe without it. Not sure what utopia they live, where they expect the EU to handle every single crisis like a champ for all member states. It's never going to happen, but hopefully we'll deal with the next migrant crisis better, and the next pandemic better. Then again, the US havent learned from H1N1 it seems, so I dont expect a new pandemic (If I live to see the next), to be handled perfectly either.

The bitching comes from people that kind of hate the EU.
The EU isn't the US federal government, it does not have a authority or a role that allows it to coordinate an response in a way that could have assisted Italy. The EU is by design a political alliance with a emphasis on Economics (trade deals, single market economy etc) and the EU members did come to an agreement in how to help the recovery of countries.

There is no reason to be critical in this situation of the EU since it acted within the boundaries we set up, if you are then you should be also be in favour of given the EU more power. Frankly I would be in favour of getting rid of certain national programs and just have a single program, what's the point in having a individual army really.

[Crispin]

The bitching comes from people that kind of hate the EU.
The EU isn't the US federal government, it does not have a authority or a role that allows it to coordinate an response in a way that could have assisted Italy. The EU is by design a political alliance with a emphasis on Economics (trade deals, single market economy etc) and the EU members did come to an agreement in how to help the recovery of countries.

There is no reason to be critical in this situation of the EU since it acted within the boundaries we set up, if you are then you should be also be in favour of given the EU more power. Frankly I would be in favour of getting rid of certain national programs and just have a single program, what's the point in having a individual army really.

Couldnt agree more. I cannot imagine a situation where the EU and it's member states, somehow come to the conclusion that "oh well the EU is not handling every situation to A+, let's just disband it then and forget cooperation in Europe". I'd hate to see a situation where any country in Europe, would have to deal with every single other country on an individual level. Then the eastern and southern countries would really be left alone to deal with "their" own mess.

[d00mGuArD]

It's honestly as meaningless as making a similar topic in regards to the US. "When till California break away?!"

Except any county can sign article 50 and leave at any time. Contrary to popular belief a referendum is not needed to break away from EU. Each country has or can make its own laws about who can sign article 50, whether a referendum is needed or not, or even if a majority is needed or not. As long as the local law about it is passed in the local parliement.
For example, Austria can pass a law that says Bob the Builder can sign article 50 at any time. That means they can leave any time bob the builder decides to. No other action is needed.

Oh and one country already left, while that has never happened in the US.

It seems there is actually no similarity at all between a state leaving the US and a country leaving the EU.

[Acidbaron]

Except any county can sign article 50 and leave at any time. Contrary to popular belief a referendum is not needed to break away from EU. Each country has or can make its own laws about who can sign article 50, whether a referendum is needed or not, or even if a majority is needed or not. As long as the local law about it is passed in the local parliement.
For example, Austria can pass a law that says Bob the Builder can sign article 50 at any time. That means they can leave any time bob the builder decides to. No other action is needed.

Oh and one country already left, while that has never happened in the US.

It seems there is actually no similarity at all between a state leaving the US and a country leaving the EU.

Sadly they are still in the process of leaving.