Trump disagrees.
Trump moved the goalposts to "between 75,000 and 100,000" and also blamed China for why his original prediction of 60,000 -- which would have been bigly and yuge -- is no longer possible.
Actually, I'll throw this question open to the floor.We’re going to lose anywhere from 75-, 80- to 100,000 people. That’s a horrible thing. We shouldn’t lose one person over this. This should’ve been stopped in China
I really think the public has been incredible.. that’s one of the reasons we're successful. If you call losing 80- or 90,000 people successful. But it’s one of the reasons that we’re not at the high end of the plane, as opposed to the low end of the plane.
It’s going up. I used to say 65,000. Now I’m saying 80 [thousand] or 90 [thousand], and it goes up and it goes up rapidly. But it’s still going to be, no matter how you look at it, at the lower end of the plane if we did the shutdown
When did Trump say 65,000?
When did he say 80,000 or 90,000?
This April 30th article says Trump said 65,000 once, April 29th. I can't find 80,000 at all. Can anyone find it? Can anyone find evidence that what Trump is saying is the truth? It shouldn't be this hard, April 29th to now is four days.
The question isn't if Trump moved the goalposts. We already know he was forced to. Question is, where did he hide them? He's making claims about what he says, based on...what? Anyone?
I saw that and he's full of shit. Also, "as many as" 100k is no longer likely. It will more likely be OVER 100k. At an average of 1k per day (and we are way above that average right now) we will be within a couple thousand of 100k by the end of May. Highly unlikely that this is over by then. The first wave, maybe.
According to the MSN virus tracker, over the last week we are closer to 2k a day:
4/26 (1 week ago): 55,383
5/3 (today): 68,276
7 day new deaths: 12,893
12,893 / 7 = 1,841 a day.
100,000 - 68,276 = 31,724
31,734 / 1,841 is about 18 days till 100k deaths at this rate.
This would be May 21.
From an anecdotal standpoint, I've talked with a few people in the SE US. Basically people did NOT go to mass on Easter. It seems like a very few high profile people held public services, and that's about it. And as much as things are "open for business" in Georgia, not many people are going out.
From a business standpoint, it means the opening up of things won't change much - kind of like how the *BIG NEWS* oil deals got crude oil up to the current price of almost $19 a barrel. So for the oil industry, basically the only question left is: how many billions of dollars of grants and loans will the US government spend and which companies will be propped up. Their losses could last quite a while. But with enough government money they could be kept afloat.
From a virus standpoint: growth of the virus throughout the south is steady but not spiking. I guess this is what compromise looks like. Not enough help to really help the business community much, and not enough safeguards to keep the virus in check. But at least there is SOME business activity, and at least there is a reduction in the virus growth.
Anecdotally: The pictures of the armed protesters in the Michigan state capital horrified people. They did more to increase support for gun restrictions than anything that is happened in a long time.
Anecdotally: People think that priests that hold public mass these days are morally equivalent to the priests that had sex with underage altar boys. They are definitely responsible for more deaths.
The main stream media paints a picture of America that is just plain false. It also is highly anti-America. There are stupid people everywhere. Must we give these people such a huge percentage of our media coverage?
I do think it's telling that Trump, who seems to time and time again hold Biden personally responsible for 17k deaths during the H1N1 pandemic (despite there being only 12.5k in the US), has now just attempted to handwave the "official" US project going from 60k to 90k under his "leadership", a jump of close to double the fake amount he has used against Biden.
"The difference between stupidity
and genius is that genius has its limits."
--Alexandre Dumas-fils
Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi
I know. Contrary to the tone of my posts on this matter, I DO try to err on the optimistic side. You'll find posts in my history from a week or two ago saying that 100k will likely be the upper limit, for example. I'm also hopeful that over the course of the next two weeks we WILL see a decline in the number of deaths per day--at least to the point where we're not pinging over 2k for most of the week.
I think most people here are also aware that the fucking imbeciles we see on the news are the vocal--and sociopathic--minority. Squeaky wheel and all that. But it only takes a handful of people like that in this type of situation to cause a lot of problems. I don't for a moment feel they accurately represent America and I think I can speak for most of the people here when I say they don't think that either. They are, however, the root of a lot of the problems facing America, particularly with respect to this pandemic.
I try to be optimistic about things for the most part as well. On the other hand, the mainstream media's "Everything is fine, let's get back to work" lies are grating to me. Everything is NOT fine. Yes there is SOME improvement in SOME areas (Louisiana for example). On other hand there are areas where it is getting worse. And we are still averaging over 1800 deaths a day over the course of a week.
Thank you for this. The mainstream media constantly portraying them as heros and decent Americans is also grating to me. They are neither.
One of the takeaways from all of this is to remind myself that the mainstream media is so very dishonest. It's not just FOX, it's the whole lot of them. Saying that CNN is better - not as bad as - FOX is not much of an endorsement. I am working hard to not be swayed by what our mainstream media spews out.
This is basically what Sweden is and has been like since the outbreak started. While everything is "life as usual" at face value, real life is far fron usual. People do stay at home a lot more, the service industry has still taken a major toll and we're having high unemployment spikes and closed businesses. The upside is that growth has been stayed linear and the possibility of going out and being social/shopping has made it more bearable for the general populace, as well as easing the burden for some businesses and slowly working towards a herd immunity which will eventually be what's required for this to pass.
While the hive mind effect still isn't as strong as in e.g. Japan, it's still fairly strong and if the new socially acceptable norm is to be cautious and careful when around other people, a vast majority of us will follow it. Some to a lesser degree, but those are also the ones that will slowly cause the virus to ebb out.
It's a complex system that seems to work for us, and hopefully it will work out for you as well.
Originally Posted by Rugz
We won't know for at least a month. Note that there is one HUGE difference between the US and Sweden. The US is MUCH larger than Sweden, so it might work in Sweden and not the US, or the other way around. We won't know for quite a while. For better or for worse, this is the plan we are following.
From my standpoint, we've chosen our path. We have decided. Now it's time to execute our plans to the best of our ability. The virus moves at its own clip. Looking back, it looks like Mardi Gras caused a HUGE spike, while Easter did not. So based on these data points, it seems like the Lesson of New Orleans has been learned. On the other hand, some of the beach shots show beaches that are QUITE crowded
- - - Updated - - -
We are at least partially following that model.
Last edited by Dontrike; 2020-05-04 at 10:56 AM.
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You do know that herd immunity means hundreds of thousands of people will die right if you don't have a vaccine. You infect everybody (90+%) in in this situation you hope for the best.
Swedens tactic can only works because it's a large country with a small population (10M) in other words it isn't that densely populated. You aren't getting sick because you aren't being in contact with thousands of people a day (directly and indirectly) which is why the Swedish numbers are relatively low but that also means you aren't building any kind of herd immunity.
Last edited by ati87; 2020-05-04 at 10:57 AM.
Various news sources, including Axios, have pointed to the biggest obstacle to the next coronavirus relief bill.
McConnell has said that no such bill will exist, unless it includes provisions that protect businesses from lawsuits when their workers or customers get sick.
Pelosi objects to this, saying
McConnell wants businesses open, even if they're not safe, and rather than see to it they become safe, simply says "you can't sue if it's not safe". I believe he, and the Party of Trump he's chosen to become, will defend this with "the cure is worse than the disease" and other deflections, but leave out the part that unsafe companies will make people sick and possibly die. Perhaps McConnell and Pelosi will find a middle ground, such as "a company that demonstrably takes steps to make itself safe, having done a certain amount of work to make itself safe, can't be sued when some dumbass customer breaks the rules". In particular, I don't like the implications for unemployment if McConnell's idea goes forth. Specifically, if a business that's not safe opens and tells its workers to return to the unsafe location, forcing the worker to choose between quitting and losing unemployment, or going to an unsafe location for work and risking their health and the health of their family.Especially now, we have every reason to protect our workers and our patients in all of this. So we would not be inclined to be supporting any immunity from liability.