Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Dontrike]

People need to understand why the thread title was changed...and I look forward to seeing their explanation. Hopefully, the toxic environment here will be addressed as well....reasonably civil and constructive discussion needs to restored in this forum.

People proving you wrong isn't a "toxic environment."

[Machismo]

The scary thing is Trump projecting. Everything from deals with Taliban to Trump’s review of Obama Ebola handling, is all coming true on Trump’s term. The problem for unemployment, Trump claimed Obama’s was as high as 45%. If the pattern of Trump doing exactly what he said Obama would do, is unfortunately forecasting 45% unemployment.

Well, if Obama's unemployment was 45% when it was at almost 10%, that would make it about 66% in Trump years... or jobs.

[Felya]

People proving you wrong isn't a "toxic environment."

We need to celebrate corporate profits, as food lines round city blocks.

- - - Updated - - -

Well, if Obama's unemployment was 45% when it was at almost 10%, that would make it about 66% in Trump years... or jobs.

When it was 4.6%... he said 45%, instead of 4.6%... well... he said... 10%... maybe 20%... 30%, 45%... is bigly high... paraphrasing of course, but not too far off.

[Felya]

Just gonna leave a thread on Trump's call in to Fox here....

Trump called in to Fox & Friends and is in the process of having one of his public therapy sessions

Pick your favourite parts!
I'm a fan of the Mother's Day message at the end. So sweet, so wholesome.

I liked this:

[fwc577]

Fake news, Obama had plenty of scandals.

Tan Suit
Mustard

[Noxx79]

I personally feel the responses you noted were reasonably civil...especially when you look at the full context of those discussions.

“It doesn’t count when I do it”

As if we needed more evidence that you were a trolling joke.

[Milchshake]

A perfect metaphor for the GOP.


Brad Parscale models the tRump/Dense 2020 face masks that the campaign may sell or give away at rallies.
It’s cheap
Offers no protection
Bonus, it makes it difficult for the wearer to breathe!

Get a preview of what it is like to die of COVID-19 after they attend a campaign rally for an orange egomaniac whose health care access includes daily testing and an in-house medical facility.

[Sorshen]

"Bill Barr is a man of unbelievable credibility and courage and he's going to go down on the history books" Trump told "Fox & Friends" on Friday.

Trump said that if Barr had been his first attorney general, there would never have been a Russia probe.

"He would have stopped it immediately," Trump said.

After the Flynn announcement, Trump declared that his former aide had been "an innocent man" all along. He accused Obama administration officials of targeting Flynn and said, "I hope that a big price is going to be paid." Going further, he said of the effort to investigate Flynn: "It's treason. It's treason."

I need a second to take that in.

[Smitzelplix]

People need to understand why the thread title was changed...and I look forward to seeing their explanation. Hopefully, the toxic environment here will be addressed as well....reasonably civil and constructive discussion needs to restored in this forum.

Then maybe you shouldn't post here anymore since you've never really been capable of either.

[Odinfrost]

Fake news, Obama had plenty of scandals.

Tan Suit
Mustard

Don't forget when he played with a selfie stick for a silly buzzfeed video, which was apparently outrageous.

[Breccia]

I guess since Trump absolutely FUCKED UP the COVID-19 response he's now hanging his reelection hopes on a war.

The Trump Shitshow continues.

Damn, that sounds like something I would say.

Speaking of "Real News that Trump doesn't like" here's CNN's front page headline:



Now, why don't you take a long, close look at this chart. Those proportions are correct.

"Was that a Jaws reference?"

Yes.

Say what you want about W's recession, he fucked up the country in all kinds of "fun" ways, but at least it was spread out. As of April, the official unemployment rate is 14.7% and as we've discussed that's based only on claims filed. Normally I would say "therefore we'll stick with the official numbers" but, well, Trump claimed 18, 20, even 42 percent, didn't he? So this is on him.

Sorry. I don't make the rules. I just see to it they're enforced.

The unemployment rate soared to 14.7% in April, its highest level since the BLS started recording the monthly rate in 1948. The last time American joblessness was that severe was the Great Depression: The unemployment rate peaked at 24.9% in 1933, according to historical annual estimates from the BLS.

People are only counted as "unemployed" by the BLS when they have been out of work but actively searched for a new job in the prior four weeks. Or, if they were a "temporary layoff" with the expectation of being rehired within six months. About 18 million people were counted as "unemployed on temporary layoff" in April, up from just 1.8 million the month before.

But with much of the country still under stay-at-home orders, many laid off workers weren't looking for new jobs in April. Instead of being counted as "unemployed," those people were categorized as having dropped out of the labor force. The employment-population ratio, which measures the share of the US population over age 16 with a job, rate shrank to 51.3% in April, down from 60% in March.

Economists expect many people will be able to find work again as businesses gradually reopen, but it could take months or even years for the job market to return to its pre-pandemic strength.

Trump is within striking range of May hitting literal Great Depression records. Not random value in the Great Depression. Not average. Record.

But let's review:

1) The only realistic way Trump could even claim 42% was if he was using the employment-population ratio. That's why he counted students, the disabled, and retirees as "unemployed". It's a shitty metric now, just like it was a shitty metric then. But since Trump used it, it's worth noting that the current value, 51.3%, means he by his own numbers has 48.7% [SARCASM]unemployment[END SARCASM] -- larger than he faulted Obama for having, while running in 2016. (Obama cut unemployment far more than Trump ever did, and most of Trump's results were in 2017 before his major policies were in place)

And I'm hardly the only one pointing this out. On these very forums, we've noted that some people just flat-out can't get their claims filed. And some didn't bother. There's no official record of things that haven't happened of course, but Trump's 42% claim does open this up as a line of discussion.

2) It's fun to shove Trump's numbers back up his fat orange fat obese fat ass, I'll quote Politifact to finish the job.

Our Ruling

Trump keeps repeating that the unemployment rate may be as high as 42 percent. But getting a percentage that high requires believing that being a high school, college or graduate student, a senior citizen, a stay-at-home parent, a job-training participant, or having a disability is no excuse for not holding down a job, or for working less than 40 hours in a week. The highest alternative unemployment-rate measure we could come up with that had any credibility was 16.4 percent, and even that exaggerated figure is only about one-third of the way to Trump’s 42 percent.

We rate his claim Pants on Fire.

Bolded for emphasis. Trump's official unemployment count is now higher than anything even remotely official anyone could find, in the year he made that claim while running for office. Add the trade war -- biggest tax increase on the American people ever -- the GDP growth that never hit 3% for a full year and the "Stock Market Negative" thread I personally had to necro, and Trump is now an objective failure by every single measure -- even fictional ones.

"That's fine and all, Breccia, but what's with the orange circle on that JPEG?"

Oh, yeah, since the forum decided that CNN was real news again, I see no reason not to post their stories. And that one stands out.

Bla bla bla huffing bleach, bla bla bla shift the focus on re-opening the country even at the cost of lives lost

The pivot, however, has been halting. While Trump's public messaging has shifted decidedly from concern over the health effects of the virus to concern over the reeling economy, it's unclear what difference it's making.

A much-heralded "Reopening the Country Council" wound up being little more than a list of important names from the private sector, many of whom didn't even realize they were participating. Attempts to wind down the health-focused White House coronavirus task force were abandoned after an outcry persuaded Trump to preserve it. And the government's own guidelines for re-opening have effectively been tossed aside, as many states set to reopen fail to meet the White House criteria.

Meanwhile, the bla bla bla Great Depression bla bla bla 14.7%

Inside the West Wing, the report was widely expected to be catastrophically bad and aides braced for some of the worst numbers in recorded American history. Even before Friday, Trump and his advisers had realized their hopes for a quick rebound had faded, with potentially grave political implications.

"It's fully expected. There's no surprise. Everybody knows that," Trump said during a phone interview with Fox News that was underway when the numbers were released Friday morning -- a scenario that ensured his favorite morning program focused on him rather than the dire numbers. "I'll bring them back."

Okay so first of all, there's something uniquely Trumpian about the unemployment rates being raised by FOX News to Trump's metaphorical face. Damn. That's some "staring into the sun" level of stupid shit to do on TV.

But I want to focus on that bolded line: I'll bring them back. Trump thinks the economy will come back to the surface with three barrels stuck to it.

Let's talk about the future.

The CBO has said they expect unemployment to average 14% in Q2. Ouch. But they also predicted 11.4% annually -- about the same as Q4 2020**

The labor market is expected to improve after the third quarter, with a rebound in hiring and a significant reduction in furloughs as the degree of social distancing diminishes—leading to an increase in business activity and an increase in the demand for workers. In particular, the unemployment rate is projected to decline to 9.5 percent by the end of 2021. Under that projection, the unemployment rate at the end of 2021 would be about 6 percentage points higher than the rate in CBO’s economic projection produced in January 2020, and the labor force would have about 6 million fewer people.

That was the CBO saying Trump would raise unemployment by more than Obama lowered it.

The WSJ predicted 12.6% June and 9.7% December.

Kiplinger predicted a peak of 12%

The Conference Board said 15% by May, 8% by year's end.

Some estimates are even worse.

All of the above predictions are outdated. All of the above predictions about May were low, because April turned out to be worse than they predicted for May. Could May's numbers go up? I suppose it's possible. But we saw another 3+ million claims last week. I don't think May will end better than it started.

Nobody is predicting that Trump will bring them back. Nobody. Except for Trump.

Incidentally, this is why that afore-mentioned Trump pivot happened. Trump just saw the economy go under, even with three barrels stuck to it, ignoring his scientists saying "we need to stick something into it -- a vaccine". Unfortunately, vaccines don't magically get created in a few months just because you want them to. It's there, clouded as if by murky ocean water, but it's not going to help in time.

At this point, while staring down the barrel of massive Fed rate cuts, massive socialist bailouts, massive drops in export and domestic sales, and claim after claim from Trump either failure or objective lies...and Trump's attacking the press like a machete to a CB radio when his efforts prove to be failures.

He's not hooking and landing this one. It's going to devour him.

Are we tired of winning yet?

---

**The CBO also predicts GDP contraction -5.6% for 2020.

[Thepersona]

Fake news, Obama had plenty of scandals.

Tan Suit
Mustard

I mean, who in their right mind liles Dijon mustard? Honey mustard is the superior one

[Breccia]

Trump called in to Fox & Friends and is in the process of having one of his public therapy sessions

Yeah, that thumbnail. Interesting how Trump's DoJ just happened to release both Flynn and some cherry-picked transcripts in what an amazing coincidence right between "coronavirus kills 75,000 Americans" and "worst unemployment in a fucking century". Makes me wonder what'll happen May 28th, when the Q1 GDP figures hit.

"Isn't Q2 supposed to be worse?"

That's the do-or-die time for "Breccia predicts war with Iran" thing. It'll also be just before the election. If you'll remember, the Iran and Afghanistan attacks had big public support for a short time. If Trump's going to do it, that's the best time remaining. If it doesn't happen, I'll be very very very very very wrong and I'll be okay with that since at least Trump won't be killing Americans for ratings.

(checks last 3 months of news)

Killing more Americans for ratings.

[kaelleria]

Damn, that sounds like something I would say.

Speaking of "Real News that Trump doesn't like" here's CNN's front page headline:



Now, why don't you take a long, close look at this chart. Those proportions are correct.

"Was that a Jaws reference?"

Yes.

Say what you want about W's recession, he fucked up the country in all kinds of "fun" ways, but at least it was spread out. As of April, the official unemployment rate is 14.7% and as we've discussed that's based only on claims filed. Normally I would say "therefore we'll stick with the official numbers" but, well, Trump claimed 18, 20, even 42 percent, didn't he? So this is on him.

Sorry. I don't make the rules. I just see to it they're enforced.



Trump is within striking range of May hitting literal Great Depression records. Not random value in the Great Depression. Not average. Record.

But let's review:

1) The only realistic way Trump could even claim 42% was if he was using the employment-population ratio. That's why he counted students, the disabled, and retirees as "unemployed". It's a shitty metric now, just like it was a shitty metric then. But since Trump used it, it's worth noting that the current value, 51.3%, means he by his own numbers has 48.7% [SARCASM]unemployment[END SARCASM] -- larger than he faulted Obama for having, while running in 2016. (Obama cut unemployment far more than Trump ever did, and most of Trump's results were in 2017 before his major policies were in place)

And I'm hardly the only one pointing this out. On these very forums, we've noted that some people just flat-out can't get their claims filed. And some didn't bother. There's no official record of things that haven't happened of course, but Trump's 42% claim does open this up as a line of discussion.

2) It's fun to shove Trump's numbers back up his fat orange fat obese fat ass, I'll quote Politifact to finish the job.



Bolded for emphasis. Trump's official unemployment count is now higher than anything even remotely official anyone could find, in the year he made that claim while running for office. Add the trade war -- biggest tax increase on the American people ever -- the GDP growth that never hit 3% for a full year and the "Stock Market Negative" thread I personally had to necro, and Trump is now an objective failure by every single measure -- even fictional ones.

"That's fine and all, Breccia, but what's with the orange circle on that JPEG?"

Oh, yeah, since the forum decided that CNN was real news again, I see no reason not to post their stories. And that one stands out.



Okay so first of all, there's something uniquely Trumpian about the unemployment rates being raised by FOX News to Trump's metaphorical face. Damn. That's some "staring into the sun" level of stupid shit to do on TV.

But I want to focus on that bolded line: I'll bring them back. Trump thinks the economy will come back to the surface with three barrels stuck to it.

Let's talk about the future.

The CBO has said they expect unemployment to average 14% in Q2. Ouch. But they also predicted 11.4% annually -- about the same as Q4 2020**



That was the CBO saying Trump would raise unemployment by more than Obama lowered it.

The WSJ predicted 12.6% June and 9.7% December.

Kiplinger predicted a peak of 12%

The Conference Board said 15% by May, 8% by year's end.

Some estimates are even worse.

All of the above predictions are outdated. All of the above predictions about May were low, because April turned out to be worse than they predicted for May. Could May's numbers go up? I suppose it's possible. But we saw another 3+ million claims last week. I don't think May will end better than it started.

Nobody is predicting that Trump will bring them back. Nobody. Except for Trump.

Incidentally, this is why that afore-mentioned Trump pivot happened. Trump just saw the economy go under, even with three barrels stuck to it, ignoring his scientists saying "we need to stick something into it -- a vaccine". Unfortunately, vaccines don't magically get created in a few months just because you want them to. It's there, clouded as if by murky ocean water, but it's not going to help in time.

At this point, while staring down the barrel of massive Fed rate cuts, massive socialist bailouts, massive drops in export and domestic sales, and claim after claim from Trump either failure or objective lies...and Trump's attacking the press like a machete to a CB radio when his efforts prove to be failures.

He's not hooking and landing this one. It's going to devour him.

Are we tired of winning yet?

---

**The CBO also predicts GDP contraction -5.6% for 2020.

There's reason to believe the numbers are way off and much worse than stated -
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-you-read-it/

Take this segment of the article.

“Job search is going to be tough when it’s a public health risk to be in contact with people and whole sectors of the economy is effectively shut down,” said Nick Bunker, a labor economist at the hiring site Indeed. “So lots of people who are out of work are probably not going to be included in the unemployment rate.”

Then there’s the possibility that some people may have been counted as employed even though it might be more accurate to say they’re temporarily out of work. The misclassification may have happened because of the way workers are surveyed — if they say they were absent from work during the entire week that’s referenced in the survey, interviewers follow up and ask why. Usually, the reasons fall into a standard set of buckets — vacation, childcare responsibilities, illness. But the number of workers who said they were absent from work for “other reasons” skyrocketed once the pandemic started, indicating that some people who had actually been furloughed may have misunderstood the question and answered in a way that indicated they were still employed.

This was a problem the BLS ran into in March, and again in April. In March, the researchers estimated that about 1.4 million people may have been misclassified as employed when they were actually temporarily out of work due to the pandemic; this month, it’s a whopping 7.5 million people. According to the BLS, the April unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher if these people were included.

[Dontrike]

Fake news, Obama had plenty of scandals.

Tan Suit
Mustard

Don't forget the time he didn't wear a flag pin.

[Breccia]

There's reason to believe the numbers are way off and much worse than stated

I actually linked that, but it's my ongoing effort to demonstrate I'm not much of a hypocrite. The fact that Trump's current official numbers are now creeping up on his made-up ones for Obama is good enough. Trump said 18 to 20 percent at the low end of his made-up numbers, and based on last week's filings, he'd be officially there if BLS did week-by-week updates.

[kaelleria]

I actually linked that, but it's my ongoing effort to demonstrate I'm not much of a hypocrite. The fact that Trump's current official numbers are now creeping up on his made-up ones for Obama is good enough. Trump said 18 to 20 percent at the low end of his made-up numbers, and based on last week's filings, he'd be officially there if BLS did week-by-week updates.

Ah I missed that... regardless the 538 article I linked has lots of interesting tidbits about the reporting process including how the call centers who actually do the surveys closed down in mid April.

The jobs report is based on two surveys: one of businesses, and one of ordinary households. Normally, that’s barely worth remarking on. But this is not an ideal time to be doing surveys of businesses or people. Last month, the call centers where the surveys are conducted were shut down, and in-person follow-up interviews aren’t happening either.

[Thepersona]

I actually linked that, but it's my ongoing effort to demonstrate I'm not much of a hypocrite. The fact that Trump's current official numbers are now creeping up on his made-up ones for Obama is good enough. Trump said 18 to 20 percent at the low end of his made-up numbers, and based on last week's filings, he'd be officially there if BLS did week-by-week updates.

I will post my personal experience here. i've been looking for a stable job since i finished college (about a year ago) with no success. Since i have ASD, its much harder for me to pass the job interview (as i sometimes spit out that i'm only interested in any job for the money it gives to me). And when this exploded (in mid march) i considered 2020 a lost year for looking a new job. I suppose that's way more common in the US (sans the ASD part) than here in chile.

[Breccia]

And when this exploded (in mid march) i considered 2020 a lost year for looking a new job.

First of all, that sucks, sorry to hear it.

But yes, the problem we're about to see is, because some businesses will permanently close or permanently shrink, even when the economy reopens fully, there won't be as many jobs as there are people who want a job. I fear this will be especially true in the larger companies, those that weren't getting SBA money, and can therefore fire and furlough at their heart's content and see how well they can do on a smaller staff.

And we're going to see it at the state government level, too. McConnell is blocking any attempts at funding for state governments. They're going to cut back, too, and the only way to deal with that will be raising taxes or letting people go.

I don't think we'll have 15.7% unemployment Dec 31, but we're sure as hell not getting back to 4-5% range, either.

[DocSavageFan]

Imagine being the source of said toxicity and saying this.

You get back what you put in, and toxicity is all you cultists have put in. Well, and gullibility. And hypocrisy. And lies. And anti intellectualism.

This is a perfect example of just how ingrained the anti-conservative hatred and bigotry is within this forum. You clearly believe that conservatives are gullible, hypocritical, lying, anti-intellectual cultists...and have no issues painting me with that broad brush without any basis in fact. You provide no specific examples where I was gullible or hypocritical, or where I lied or promoted anti-intellectualism. In one post, you have shown yourself to be a shameless bigot...intolerant and hateful toward those who hold different opinions than you. This kind of ugliness (which is so prevalent here) is unacceptable and not OK imo.

If you have a beef with something I said, please give me the courtesy of providing the specifics so I can respond. That said, I find your unsubstantiated insults towards me to be highly personal and incredibly destructive to this forum. I don't understand why the moderation here has allowed this kind of toxic bigotry to freely exist in this forum for so long. I'm hoping this changes soon...assuming "constructive discussion" is indeed the desired outcome.