Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Teleros]

I mean, the fact you call it "wuflu" makes it hard to take you seriously.

Hey, we just had Cuomo calling it the European virus. At least I get the right continent .

But also, the UK has about ~50-55k excess death right now, despite having an "official" tally of "only" 32k COVID-19 deaths. Implications that the COVID-19 numbers are over-exaggerated are downright hilarious.

Excess deaths according to what? Oh right, a statistical model. Even if you're being charitable, a model is just that - a model - and therefore inherently unrealistic. If you're being less charitable, then "GIGO".

[Thepersona]

I mean, the fact you call it "wuflu" makes it hard to take you seriously.

But also, the UK has about ~50-55k excess death right now, despite having an "official" tally of "only" 32k COVID-19 deaths. Implications that the COVID-19 numbers are over-exaggerated are downright hilarious.

They would be hilarious, if we werent talking about human deaths. These fuckers are the lowest of the low.

[Gaidax]

IDK man, your numbers seem pretty bad to me.
15x more deaths per 1M pop than India and 25x more than Palestine...

We also do 50x tests per 1M pop over India. India numbers make me genuinely laugh, the guys don't even know what's going on there with their non-existent testing.

Kekw.

[PhaelixWW]

If a number isn't given in the text it must be assumed

A number that is mathematically derived from given numbers is, itself, considered a given number and not an assumption. That's quite literally how math works.

I'm not sure you want to keep excavating this hole.

And how do you explain that your assumption directly contradicts parts of the numbers given in the text?

I made no assumption. I laid it all out mathematically from given data. I don't know how many times you're going to ignore this fact.

I mean, you're just continuing to embarrass yourself here.

Some do, others use it correctly. The difference matters as it indicates that the problem is still lack of testing - and that people don't react to the symptoms.

Does the distinction matter at all? Sure. Does it matter in the scope of this discussion? Narp.

You can also do it for the number they give for NYC which gives a ratio of 6-9, which directly contradicts their results.
You know the study that you actually believed was reliable, in NYC where you don't think that excess deaths were due to hospitals being overwhelmed.

Whiiiiiiich, as I've stated about 50 times now, is why I said the estimate made in the JH statement was wrong.

Maybe I should keep reposting the same thing here until you get it:

Since you seem to be having a hard time internalizing this concept, I'll lay it out for you again in simple terms: (NY numbers aside), their numbers make mathematical sense; they're just wrong.

Let's see if this one sticks.

The simple explanation is that they didn't think it through. You have not provided any real counter-argument, so I don't see that it's meaningful to continue this.

If you don't consider laying out whole math of the estimate to be "providing any real counter-argument", then no, I don't suppose you're going to ever admit that you're wrong.

[Forogil]

We also do 50x tests per 1M pop over India. India numbers make me genuinely laugh, the guys don't even know what's going on there with their non-existent testing.

I weep for the ones dying to their inept lockdowns - whether it's starvation or migrants being run over by train when walking to their home villages to get food and shelter.

[Coolthulhu]

Big news if true from Italy:

https://www.radioradio.it/2020/05/co...&cn-reloaded=1

That's taken from a channel which is a (much smaller) Italian equivalent of InfoWars ad. The whole channel is filled with conspiracy theories not unlike the most absurd ones Alex Jones usually spouts. Please, please check your sources before sharing stuff. I'm listening to that shit and it's physically painful. That Dr. Nobody literally says that everything Dr. Francesco Vaia (director of one of the most prestigious infectious diseases centers in the world) is "a bunch of bullshit and lies". I'm now 20 minutes through the video and he's ranting about even more absurd conspiracy theories about Northern Italy wanting to "wipe out and smother Southern Italy", Holy Moley, this guy is hilarious, he then goes on and say that "other doctors have no right to speak", he really has a God complex. I might actually listen to the whole thing. It's so bad it's almost good.

[Shadowferal]

If there isn't going to be a vaccine that will be readily available for a few years...well, so much for lockdowns.

[Skulltaker]

Big news if true from Italy:

https://www.radioradio.it/2020/05/co...&cn-reloaded=1

Via Google Translate:

A few things I find curious about this.

First of all, there is no translated version to be found, despite the info being 3 days old. I can't find his study itself anywhere. His test group was only people 18-60, who are the most socially active, and you'll not get a representative study for the entire population if you only look at people of working age. He also doesn't present any indication why his findings prove the existence of the virus in October.

It's probably the google translation, but the entire thing reads rather unprofessional. Most of what he presents as facts is guesswork.

- - - Updated - - -

That's taken from a channel which is a (much smaller) Italian equivalent of InfoWars ad. The whole channel is filled with conspiracy theories not unlike the most absurd ones Alex Jones usually spouts. Please, please check your sources before sharing stuff. I'm listening to that shit and it's physically painful. That Dr. Nobody literally says that everything Dr. Francesco Vaia (director of one of the most prestigious infectious diseases centers in the world) is "a bunch of bullshit and lies". I'm now 20 minutes through the video and he's ranting about even more absurd conspiracy theories about Northern Italy wanting to "wipe out and smother Southern Italy", Holy Moley, this guy is hilarious, he then goes on and say that "other doctors have no right to speak", he really has a God complex. I might actually listen to the whole thing. It's so bad it's almost good.

Oh, okay. I couldn't find any info on radioradio.it that wasn't in Italian, a language I don't speak. Thanks, that's how the google translated version read.

[PhaelixWW]

And school closures (whether viewed as extreme or not) is not one of the measures having a significant effect on R.
That's one of the results from Imperial College - and there has previously been similar studies.

I think that it will be important for schools to reopen, but a lot of thought will have to be done and many changes instituted to limit the contact between students as much as possible.

If used in that way - and then it indicates that the country was caught off guard.

No, because any country that has an R over 1 even with the more efficient measures is likely to eventually need to employ something more "extreme" to lower the rate temporarily.

If people are home with symptoms it's reasonable to expect them to get well, and thus it's a short-lived problem.

The problem at discussion isn't with people getting well, it's with infected people transmitting it to those who aren't yet infected. Any absenteeism reduces the transmission potential.

[Forogil]

If you don't consider laying out whole math of the estimate to be "providing any real counter-argument", then no, I don't suppose you're going to ever admit that you're wrong.

Let's go through it once more.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-our...-misconception

They state that NYC has 15-21% infected. That gives that actual cases are 6-9 times actual cases, and combined with the number of deaths they give it indicates an IFR of 1-1.4% (or higher) - and they also state the IFR for a cruise ship to be 1%.
The chickenpox IFR comparison indicate that their IFR is above 0.29%, and since it's such a rough estimate it's likely that they mean it's higher.

They then state that to reach 200 million cases with 25k confirmed cases a day it will take well into 2021, i.e. about 300-600 days.
If actual cases are the same as confirmed cases it would be 8,000 days.
If actual cases are 6-9 times confirmed cases - as for NYC then it is 880 days or more, which is beyond 2021.

And if they have an IFR there is no need to count number of days to reach case-numbers to figure out the total number of deaths.

The text uses references 1-10, the reference list has 9 entries.

I don't see how anyone can claim that the numbers make mathematical sense.
So, no I don't see you providing any real argument - just trying to claim that some of the numbers may make sense.

[Skulltaker]

Excess deaths according to what? Oh right, a statistical model. Even if you're being charitable, a model is just that - a model - and therefore inherently unrealistic. If you're being less charitable, then "GIGO".

Oh, you're one of the people who think evolution isn't proven because it's called a 'theory', right?

[PhaelixWW]

Hey, we just had Cuomo calling it the European virus. At least I get the right continent .

Any points you might think you earn for that are more than lost by referring to it as the "flu".

Excess deaths according to what? Oh right, a statistical model. Even if you're being charitable, a model is just that - a model - and therefore inherently unrealistic. If you're being less charitable, then "GIGO".

Uh, no... excess deaths according to the ONS.

[Teleros]

That's taken from a channel which is a (much smaller) Italian equivalent of InfoWars ad.

Fine, fine. How about the Daily Telegraph?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-long-lockdown

"There are glimmers of hope. Early results from the Italian bio-lab Meleam shows that 38pc of all Italians tested randomly for antibodies across nine regions have been exposed to the virus already. If validated, the disease has spread far more widely than supposed. The death rate is therefore very low. Italy – and others – are closer to the final exit of herd immunity. Ergo, we can call off the lockdowns sooner."

That quote is backed up by some of the stuff in the link I originally posted, so hey, I guess even the Italian InfoWars equivalent can post accurate stuff .

Edit:

Any points you might think you earn for that are more than lost by referring to it as the "flu".

It's a catchy name, not a tediously accurate one.

Uh, no... excess deaths according to the ONS.

Again, according to a statistical model. Unless you're going to claim that someone or something at the ONS can literally predict the future - and furthermore, predict alternative futures where the wuflu didn't appear - then they're going to be using a statistical model based on past years to predict how many deaths would probably have occurred this year.

Try again.

[Skulltaker]

Fine, fine. How about the Daily Telegraph?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-long-lockdown

"There are glimmers of hope. Early results from the Italian bio-lab Meleam shows that 38pc of all Italians tested randomly for antibodies across nine regions have been exposed to the virus already. If validated, the disease has spread far more widely than supposed. The death rate is therefore very low. Italy – and others – are closer to the final exit of herd immunity. Ergo, we can call off the lockdowns sooner."

Do you have a working understanding of what 'if validated' means? It means no-one has bothered checking if the info provided is actually accurate, or if it is true at all. If there is no validation for the basis of the analysis, all the conclusions drawn from the data are about as useful as tits on a fish.

- - - Updated - - -

It's a catchy name, not a tediously accurate one.

Which is all that the uneducated care about, as usual. Fuck being accurate or genuine, as long as it is catchy. Good thing you're not in charge of anything.

[Teleros]

Do you have a working understanding of what 'if validated' means?

Yes, that's why I originally posted it with the line "big IF TRUE". The Telegraph article is from April and discussed preliminary results. The Italian link is from this month and appears to be the full results. Now is the time for validation to take place. Do you understand now?

[Skulltaker]

Again, according to a statistical model. Unless you're going to claim that someone or something at the ONS can literally predict the future - and furthermore, predict alternative futures where the wuflu didn't appear - then they're going to be using a statistical model based on past years to predict how many deaths would probably have occurred this year.

You don't seem to have an understanding of how scientific models are created. What's your educational background?

- - - Updated - - -

Yes, that's why I originally posted it with the line "big IF TRUE". The Telegraph article is from April and discussed preliminary results. The Italian link is from this month and appears to be the full results. Now is the time for validation to take place. Do you understand now?

Right, and then you've been told by what appears to be a local that what you quoted is trash and doesn't deserve any attention, and you keep trying to validate the trash, because it fits your narrative. You'll have to do better.

[Tuor]

The death rate is therefore very low. Italy – and others – are closer to the final exit of herd immunity. Ergo, we can call off the lockdowns sooner."

Hopefully, at this time, we already have enought data to compare.

In 4 month's, Covid-19 killed over 70k people just in the US, the Flu kills in average just 60k... per year. And then people keep poping out of no where and claim the virus is harmless, wtf, its not a matter of statistics, its a matter of brute numbers, in just 5 months this virus caused more harm then any other virus since the spanish flu.

[PhaelixWW]

Let's go through it once more.

They state that NYC has 15-21% infected... *blah, blah, snip*

I don't see how anyone can claim that the numbers make mathematical sense.

Alright, I guess we're doing another round of this, then:

Since you seem to be having a hard time internalizing this concept, I'll lay it out for you again in simple terms: (NY numbers aside), their numbers make mathematical sense; they're just wrong.

I mean, you've steadfastly ignored the fact that, every single time, I've made it a point to specify the bolded above.

But I'll keep pointing out your disingenuous strawman arguments as long as you keep making them.

So, no I don't see you providing any real argument - just trying to claim that some of the numbers may make sense.

The fact that you still haven't even bothered to actually address the math that was laid out for you heavily implies that you know you're wrong.

- - - Updated - - -

It's a catchy name, not a tediously accurate one.

Calling something by a catchy, though inaccurate name is also known as "lying".

Being more interested in how "catchy" a term is rather than its accuracy is also the sign of an easily swayed mind.

I believe the apt response is: "weird flex, but okay."

Again, according to a statistical model. Unless you're going to claim that someone or something at the ONS can literally predict the future - and furthermore, predict alternative futures where the wuflu didn't appear - then they're going to be using a statistical model based on past years to predict how many deaths would probably have occurred this year.

Try again.

Good lord. You actually think those numbers are unrealistic? I'm guessing you think "science" is a dirty word, eh?

Wow, there's no use trying to get through to you.

[Teleros]

You don't seem to have an understanding of how scientific models are created.

Statistics =/= science.

Look, I can take a look at past data and say "well, based on that I should expect X many deaths this year". That's what we call a model. It does not mean that there will be X deaths this year, because, being created by a finite mind, it cannot take into account all the relevant variables, some of which (hi, wuflu) said finite mind doesn't even know exist. If in a wuflu-free year you have only a mild flu pandemic, your model will be wrong because fewer will die. If you have a severe flu pandemic that year, your model will be wrong because more people will die. Et cetera et cetera et cetera.

Right, and then you've been told by what appears to be a local that what you quoted is trash and doesn't deserve any attention, and you keep trying to validate the trash, because it fits your narrative. You'll have to do better.

So when I tell you that Brexit is a roaring success, because I'm British you should just believe me? Cool.

= = =

Hopefully, at this time, we already have enought data to compare.

Unfortunately recording methods aren't comparable. As I've mentioned before, if you count every death that occurs in which the deceased tests positive for wuflu as death to wuflu, then you will inflate the numbers. "John had cancer & died of a heart attack" =/= "add John to the list of deaths due to cancer". Now it's true, there will also no doubt be reasons to deflate the numbers - people dying with no wuflu tests done on them, or false negatives etc. But again, that just means the numbers are still pretty suspect.

= = =

Edit:

Calling something by a catchy, though inaccurate name is also known as "lying".

Lying is when you believe X but say not-X. Try again.

Good lord. You actually think those numbers are unrealistic?

They can be accurate for this year and completely wrong for next year. It's a complex field - this kind of thing happens all the time. If we were that good at predicting the future the stock market would be being run pretty differently.

I'm guessing you think "science" is a dirty word, eh?

No, you guessed wrong.

[PhaelixWW]

Lying is when you believe X but say not-X. Try again.

So you believe that COVID-19 is the flu?

They can be accurate for this year and completely wrong for next year. It's a complex field - this kind of thing happens all the time. If we were that good at predicting the future the stock market would be being run pretty differently.

That's why there are CIs. That's also why I said "~50-55k" instead of "54,127" or somesuch.

No, you guessed wrong.

Then you just don't understand how science works, then. Gotcha.