Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Hobb]

I do love what you pointed out the author spinning the TX numbers - as if a 4 point lead in fucking Texas is a good thing. Maybe @TexasLies can shed some light on this....

A 4% lead is a rather pathetic lead for Trump in Texas. Considering Romney won the state by 15.8%, McCain by 11.8% and Bush by 22.5%.

It would be nice to see Texas turn blue and it's getting there, but I think it will be a few more elections before it finally happens.

[Paranoid Android]

QAnon follower wins Senate primary in Oregon

A follower of QAnon, a conspiracy theory that has been spreading from the far fringes of right-wing social media into more mainstream Republican circles, won the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Oregon Tuesday, crediting fellow followers for her victory.

Now I want to chuckle and make fun of the GOP for nominating a batshit crazy candidate. Problem is, this might become the norm.

[cubby]

Sorry, just a reference to the show The Ozarks. The family is money laundering for a drug cartel and moved to Missouri. A minor part of the show is that they're politically left-leaning and have been wanting to get back into politics and shift the state blue.

Crap - I LOVE that show, should have caught the reference. /shame

I'm waiting on Season 3 until I can binge it.

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it may well come down to the wire in some places.
i should have posted it in this thread, but data from the wisconsin election suggests that rural white voters are also impacted by stringent voting requirements. something like 4% of rural mail-in votes were rejected vs 1% of urban.
it will be interesting to see if the repubs continue to pursue that.

Interesting. And the GOP stomped on WI mail in ballots for their last election in April(?). And they got their asses handed to them. Wonder if anyone in "upper management" is going to change their tune.

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A 4% lead is a rather pathetic lead for Trump in Texas. Considering Romney won the state by 15.8%, McCain by 11.8% and Bush by 22.5%.

It would be nice to see Texas turn blue and it's getting there, but I think it will be a few more elections before it finally happens.

Agreed. It is certainly swinging blue, as you pointed out. It could go blue with these extraordinary circumstances of 2020. Nov is going to be show-stopping exciting.

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QAnon follower wins Senate primary in Oregon

Now I want to chuckle and make fun of the GOP for nominating a batshit crazy candidate. Problem is, this might become the norm.

Awesome - although I have to say, the Dems have also seen some real charmers at times. Nothing to compare with literal Nazi's and Pizzagate conspiracy theory nuts.

[TexasRules]

Wonder why Trump has spent the day attacking voters on twitter?


New Quinnipiac national poll:

Biden 50%
Trump 39%


Biden has a huge lead in the suburbs (59-35) while Trump's margins in rural areas are not nearly as big as you'd expect (53-40).

You got numbers on the make up of whom they surveyed? Because I read the entire poll and it is nowhere to be found. BUt I did find a poll that does have numbers surveyed:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/vote...oll-finds.html

Democrats and Republicans in the key electoral states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin disagree over whether there is likely to be a second wave of Covid-19 cases and who is to blame if there is.

In a hypothetical match-up, Trump holds a narrow, 48%-46% lead over Biden among all the battleground voters surveyed, including a 41%-32% edge among independents.

Now this is with a make up of :
Democrat 36
Independent+Leaners 27
Republican 37

You got party affiliations for your poll? Maybe a link so people can try to find it, because I could not

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Depending how the oil industry recover, TX could be in play also. There is a lot of unhappiness in the way Trump handled the oil crisis. No. The current oil price is not sustainable for shale drillers. Even at mid 40s it is not sustainable. The medium and big companies were able to take advantage of the US Treasury's massive bond buyback and CAREs act tax break. However, small companies producing less than 1,000 bpd, which employs the majority of the oil workers, are in a different situation. This will also hit Houston and Dallas commercial real estate hard.

Texas is not going to swing blue, but keep trying.

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https://dailycaller.com/2020/05/20/s...ion-democrats/

I am sure most people will dismiss this out of hand because...bad news in some ways for blue, but:

Three Democratic members of the Staunton, Virginia, city council were ousted by Republicans on Tuesday despite receiving more votes than they did four years ago.Republican candidates Mark Robertson, Amy Darby, and Steve Claffey all joined incumbent Andrea Oakes in a four-seat GOP sweep, WHSV reported. The three incoming council members replaced Democratic incumbents Erik Curren, Ophie Kier, and James Harrington all almost doubled their vote totals from 2016, yet still lost.

The reason I think this is significant is
a) Virginia is a blue state
b) Virginia is trying to gun control out the ass
c) The democrat incumbents received more votes then they did before and still lost. There was almost 3 times as many votes cast and Republicans dominated

If they keep trying to overexert gun control, Virginia may turn purple.

[Rasulis]

You got numbers on the make up of whom they surveyed? Because I read the entire poll and it is nowhere to be found. BUt I did find a poll that does have numbers surveyed:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/vote...oll-finds.html



Now this is with a make up of :
Democrat 36
Independent+Leaners 27
Republican 37

You got party affiliations for your poll? Maybe a link so people can try to find it, because I could not

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Texas is not going to swing blue, but keep trying.

All their major economic centers (Austin, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio) are blue now. It is just a matter of time. Hell, Austin, Houston and Dallas have Democratic mayors, and San Antonio an independent mayor with pretty progressive platform.

[cubby]

You got numbers on the make up of whom they surveyed? Because I read the entire poll and it is nowhere to be found. BUt I did find a poll that does have numbers surveyed:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/vote...oll-finds.html

Democrats and Republicans in the key electoral states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin disagree over whether there is likely to be a second wave of Covid-19 cases and who is to blame if there is.

In a hypothetical match-up, Trump holds a narrow, 48%-46% lead over Biden among all the battleground voters surveyed, including a 41%-32% edge among independents.

Now this is with a make up of :
Democrat 36
Independent+Leaners 27
Republican 37

You got party affiliations for your poll? Maybe a link so people can try to find it, because I could not

Good point - and a very good analysis. Am I correctly attributing the quote to your link? Party affiliations of a poll are exceedingly important in the down-and-dirty analysis.

(for the record, I'm and uncomfortable as you in giving you a compliment - but I believe in intellectual honesty, and when good points are made, they should be acknowledged)

Texas is not going to swing blue, but keep trying.

Because...*feels*? Actual real indicators, i.e. not your emotions, are showing major blue swings in the state, with some already calling it a purple state.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/05/20/s...ion-democrats/

I am sure most people will dismiss this out of hand because...bad news in some ways for blue, but:

Three Democratic members of the Staunton, Virginia, city council were ousted by Republicans on Tuesday despite receiving more votes than they did four years ago.Republican candidates Mark Robertson, Amy Darby, and Steve Claffey all joined incumbent Andrea Oakes in a four-seat GOP sweep, WHSV reported. The three incoming council members replaced Democratic incumbents Erik Curren, Ophie Kier, and James Harrington all almost doubled their vote totals from 2016, yet still lost.

he reason I think this is significant is
a) Virginia is a blue state
b) Virginia is trying to gun control out the ass
c) The democrat incumbents received more votes then they did before and still lost. There was almost 3 times as many votes cast and Republicans dominated

If they keep trying to overexert gun control, Virginia may turn purple.

I agree - the numbers are very significant - Dems getting more votes than the last time, when they won, but still losing because even more GOP votes caused their loss. It would seem to indicate that voter turnout is swinging in the GOP's favor. This was a special election or part of the primary?

And yes, the gun control issue might have a LOT to do with it. Fucking ridiculous they are trying this right now.

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All their major economic centers (Austin, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio) are blue now. It is just a matter of time. Hell, Austin, Houston and Dallas have Democratic mayors, and San Antonio an independent mayor with pretty progressive platform.

This - precisely.

[TexasRules]

All their major economic centers (Austin, Houston, Dallas and San Antonio) are blue now. It is just a matter of time. Hell, Austin, Houston and Dallas have Democratic mayors, and San Antonio an independent mayor with pretty progressive platform.

Dallas is ridiculous and is way offset by the rich people of north Dallas and the people of Fort Worth. If Dallas had any clue, they would have the Dallas Cowboys, they don't. As far as economic center....yeah right. I notice where most of the corporate headquarters that move here go, and it ain't Dallas county. Austin is a haven for blue, and Houston is also mainly because of racial makeup. San Antonio is split I would say. But rural areas are all red, you know that. Also, a lot of Hispanics in Texas HATE illegal immigrants. You should know that too. Texas is not flipping blue this year.

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Good point - and a very good analysis. Am I correctly attributing the quote to your link? Party affiliations of a poll are exceedingly important in the down-and-dirty analysis.

(for the record, I'm and uncomfortable as you in giving you a compliment - but I believe in intellectual honesty, and when good points are made, they should be acknowledged)




Because...*feels*? Actual real indicators, i.e. not your emotions, are showing major blue swings in the state, with some already calling it a purple state.




I agree - the numbers are very significant - Dems getting more votes than the last time, when they won, but still losing because even more GOP votes caused their loss. It would seem to indicate that voter turnout is swinging in the GOP's favor. This was a special election or part of the primary?

And yes, the gun control issue might have a LOT to do with it. Fucking ridiculous they are trying this right now.

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This - precisely.

I always check poll make up because most are biased. Even the one i linked, for independents it lumps them all together but has it split dem leaning, rep leaning and ind 9-9-9. I would say it is fairly divided in general over both parties. That quin poll just says 1300 people no party affiliations.

And I do not mean this disrespectfully to people, but if you have not lived in Texas, you don't know Texas. I have lived in 8 different states because of military and Texas is literally a different world. It has a ton of transplants, just go to a Redwings-Stars game and the crowd will be more red then green. But the weird thing is , people assimilate. I have a friend who just moved here last year and his favorite shirt has a longhorn skull that reads"United States? You mean Texas and it's 49 bitches" I don't know if it's something in the water--seriously do not drink Fort Worth water-- but people change here for some reason. They become like minded.

[starlord]

Dallas is ridiculous and is way offset by the rich people of north Dallas and the people of Fort Worth. If Dallas had any clue, they would have the Dallas Cowboys, they don't. As far as economic center....yeah right. I notice where most of the corporate headquarters that move here go, and it ain't Dallas county. Austin is a haven for blue, and Houston is also mainly because of racial makeup. San Antonio is split I would say. But rural areas are all red, you know that. Also, a lot of Hispanics in Texas HATE illegal immigrants. You should know that too. Texas is not flipping blue this year.

dallas cowboys? wut?
also... the border counties are pretty consistently blue.

[cubby]

I always check poll make up because most are biased. Even the one i linked, for independents it lumps them all together but has it split dem leaning, rep leaning and ind 9-9-9. I would say it is fairly divided in general over both parties. That quin poll just says 1300 people no party affiliations.

Party affiliation can be important, but it's not always - especially when the point is to get a statistically significant poll of the country. I have to ask, what make up would make a poll valuable to you? I'm kind of thinking out loud here....

And I do not mean this disrespectfully to people, but if you have not lived in Texas, you don't know Texas. I have lived in 8 different states because of military and Texas is literally a different world. It has a ton of transplants, just go to a Redwings-Stars game and the crowd will be more red then green. But the weird thing is , people assimilate. I have a friend who just moved here last year and his favorite shirt has a longhorn skull that reads"United States? You mean Texas and it's 49 bitches" I don't know if it's something in the water--seriously do not drink Fort Worth water-- but people change here for some reason. They become like minded.

I get that people assimilate - especially to a place like Texas - Texas is big on being Texas, and I mean that in a good way. I live in a similar state, regarding that notion, so I do get it. However, being pro-Texas first doesn't necessarily mean that party affiliation will drop away. In fact, it could actually bolster the political swing, because people care more about the state because it's Texas. I will be the first to admit that this is mostly my *feels* and analysis rather than any other source. But...BUT...there are significant indicators that Texas is moving away from Deep Red, and can already see purple on the horizon.

Given the political climate, and how much Team Deplorable is fucking up the COVID-19 response in every significant way, if the economy is still tanking and unemployment is still high without any monetary assistance (i.e. extended unemployment), Texans might seek a change of leadership.

[Tripewort]

And I do not mean this disrespectfully to people, but if you have not lived in Texas, you don't know Texas. I have lived in 8 different states because of military and Texas is literally a different world.

I do mean this to be disrespectful.

Gosh. 8 different states. Wow, you are so open-minded. Imagine, seeing all those different parts of the same country....

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It has a ton of transplants, just go to a Redwings-Stars game and the crowd will be more red then green. But the weird thing is , people assimilate. I have a friend who just moved here last year and his favorite shirt has a longhorn skull that reads"United States? You mean Texas and it's 49 bitches" I don't know if it's something in the water--seriously do not drink Fort Worth water-- but people change here for some reason. They become like minded.

Wow, you mean the population is composed of small-minded bigots who are crude, uneducated and somewhat inbred? That's not exactly unusual.

Do me a favour, spare us the tedious crap about how all you have some kind of special magic about you. Texas is a byword for stupidity and violence around the globe. There's nothing admirable about coming from a place that, it is pitiable.

[DocSavageFan]

RCP has Biden up over Trump by 5.6 points. Looks like this one is in the pocket!

[starlord]

I do mean this to be disrespectful.

Gosh. 8 different states. Wow, you are so open-minded. Imagine, seeing all those different parts of the same country....

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Wow, you mean the population is composed of small-minded bigots who are crude, uneducated and somewhat inbred? That's not exactly unusual.

Do me a favour, spare us the tedious crap about how all you have some kind of special magic about you. Texas is a byword for stupidity and violence around the globe. There's nothing admirable about coming from a place that, it is pitiable.

texas is a pretty diverse state, geographically, ethnically, and politically. most people who talk about texas only know it from movies that often weren't even filmed there.
also, "texasrules" has said that he's not even from texas.

[Milchshake]

Just post this graph anytime you see a fascist fantasizing about how cool it's gonna be when the fascist owns thuh libs by declaring himself dictator.

[infinitemeridian]

RCP has Biden up over Trump by 5.6 points. Looks like this one is in the pocket!

Anybody who claims to have a reading on this election is a hack. Are we forgetting 2016 happened?

I'm not saying Trump has this in the bag - he could very well lose, and Covid-19 has definitely not improved this.

But the dems nominated Biden of all people...this is definitely not set in stone, especially as they seemed to have learned absolutely nothing from 2016 and are in fact doubling down on all the things that people dislike about the Democratic party.

[starlord]

Anybody who claims to have a reading on this election is a hack. Are we forgetting 2016 happened?

I'm not saying Trump has this in the bag - he could very well lose, and Covid-19 has definitely not improved this.

But the dems nominated Biden of all people...this is definitely not set in stone, especially as they seemed to have learned absolutely nothing from 2016 and are in fact doubling down on all the things that people dislike about the Democratic party.

attacks on the democratic party (and by extension the many voters who participate in the primaries) has been shown to be why biden won out in the end over the people using this strategy.

[cors8]

National polls are meaningless unless the margin is at least high double-digits. The election isn't won on popular votes as shown in 2016. State polls are what's important.

[infinitemeridian]

attacks on the democratic party (and by extension the many voters who participate in the primaries) has been shown to be why biden won out in the end over the people using this strategy.

Biden won among people who vote blue. so Nothing eye opening here. Call me when Biden can win over independents, rural voters, and Sanders supporters.

[beanman12345]

Biden won among people who vote blue. so Nothing eye opening here. Call me when Biden can win over independents, rural voters, and Sanders supporters.

Biden doesn't need them, what he needs is suburban voters. specifically suburban women.

[starlord]

Biden won among people who vote blue. so Nothing eye opening here. Call me when Biden can win over independents, rural voters, and Sanders supporters.

maybe you should do a little research before proclaiming broad statements.
he did well among rural voters in the primaries, sanders himself is on the team, and here are the latest numbers;

TRUMP VS. BIDEN

Voters are split on who they think would do a better job handling the economy, with 48 percent saying Biden and 47 percent saying Trump. In April, Trump led Biden on this question 49 - 44 percent.

Voters also say 57 - 37 percent that Biden would do a better job than Trump handling health care compared to 53 - 40 percent in April.

Biden outscores Trump on honesty, good leadership skills, and caring about average Americans. Voters say:
Biden is honest 47 - 41 percent, while Trump is not honest 62 - 34 percent;
Biden has good leadership skills 51 - 40 percent, while Trump does not 58 - 40 percent;
Biden cares about average Americans 61 - 30 percent, while Trump does not 56 - 42 percent.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Today, Biden receives a slightly positive 45 - 41 percent favorability rating, but this is not significantly changed from his split 43 - 43 percent favorability rating in April. President Trump has a negative 40 - 55 percent favorability rating, compared to a negative 41 - 52 percent favorability rating in April.

Separately, voters were asked about sexual assault allegations leveled against Biden by a former Senate staffer in the 1990's. In recent weeks, Biden has publicly denied the allegations made by Tara Reade. Asked which do you tend to believe most, 28 percent say the accusation made by Tara Reade, 28 percent say the denial made by Joe Biden, and 38 percent say they haven't heard enough about it.

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release...ReleaseID=3661

[fwc577]

75 million for Biden

59 million for Trump

2020 pop vote totals.

You read it here first.

Pack it up. I will see you guys January 2021 at Biden's Inauguration.

I'm from the future, so I just saw you guys yesterday.