Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Zan15]

It might not be so simple.


.

This is what you get when you have an administration who's national plan is to let everyone else make a plan.

and what a shock in Florida---She still hasn’t received an unemployment check----


Though I mostly side with the owners on this problem.

Its not like they are trillion dollar corporations and don't also hold mortgages and have to pay expenses. Most states did not give them any kind of exclusion. They had to beg their banks and debtors for help, which is in most cases just paying later and paying interest and fees. On top of that April-June is property tax time. And you can bet states are not extending that deadline!

Besides maybe Florida most states have a good handle on unemployment and these people have been getting their unemployment +600 so there is no excuse for the vast majority of renters. Problem is education. I know up till I told him my neighbor thought he just would never have to pay march-April's rent because of Gov's orders.
He was shocked and had to cancel that order for a 55 inch 4k tv, I kid you not.

He also thought his power and gas was "forgiven", not carried forward. Had to log him on to his accounts to show him his balance.


These states should enact laws that protect people whom are still stuck in the unemployment system hole, but everyone who's been getting unemployment should GTFO and pay or get out.

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(Keep an eye on Houston. The moratorium was just lifted and the Texas SCOTUS says evictions can continue)

.

SEE EDUCATION!

When COVID-19 hit, Hewitt lost her job babysitting her granddaughter and niece. Now she relies on her $800 disability check, which isn't enough to cover her $900 monthly rent

she fucking qualifies for the $600 unemployment and a minimum 207 dollars a week because she is an independent contractor.
Yes, babysitters whom are being paid are independent contract workers.
and it sounds like you don't even need to provide much proof...lol



Proof of Income Notice for Self-Employed, Independent Contractors (1099), and Gig Workers

If you worked for the entire year of 2019 as a self-employed worker, a 1099 independent contractor, or a gig worker, you do NOT need to provide the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) with your 2019 IRS 1040 Schedule C, F or SE unless your net profit for 2019 exceeded $20,800. That is the minimum amount needed to increase your Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) weekly benefit amount (WBA).
You will continue to receive the $207 minimum Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) weekly benefit amount (WBA) if your net profit for 2019 was less than $20,800. Providing your income tax return is optional and will not affect your weekly benefit amount if your net profit was less.

[Deja Thoris]

NBC News pays tribute to those we've lost in the last two weeks alone, such as Hertz and JCPenny.

Theres going to be many more

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoine.../#5217344b7a1f

Not saying any one of the ones listed will be victims but US companies are snorting up debt like a coke addict on a bender. Not healthy when your revenues disappeared for months.

[Rasulis]

Theres going to be many more

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoine.../#5217344b7a1f

Not saying any one of the ones listed will be victims but US companies are snorting up debt like a coke addict on a bender. Not healthy when your revenues disappeared for months.

Interesting observation in the article.

According to a Forbes investigation, which analyzed 455 companies in the S&P 500 Index—excluding banks and cash-rich tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Google and Microsoft—on average, businesses in the index nearly tripled their net debt over the past decade, adding some $2.5 trillion in leverage to their balance sheets. The analysis shows that for every dollar of revenue growth over the past decade, the companies added almost a dollar of debt. Most S&P 500 firms entered the bull market with just 20 cents in net debt per dollar of annual revenue; today that figure has climbed to 38 cents.

Does that mean companies like Apple don't carry debts? They do. Except they are conventional debts and the companies don't have to issue bonds for those debts. Which meant they are able to take advantage of the current low interest rates. For example, the current average interest rate on Apple debts is just over 1%.

Apple's balance sheet is even better. The 1st quarter 2020 Apple’s balance sheet show that the company holds a tremendous advantage over practically every other company on the planet. With more investors looking for safety in balance sheets, Apple is offering a fortress. At the end of the most recent quarter, Apple’s current assets included $60 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $73.9 billion in marketable securities. Among noncurrent assets, it had $138.8 billion in marketable securities. It’s also worth pointing out here that Apple is quickly creating one of, not only largest, but also fastest growing cash holdings among all U.S. firms. Despite the pandemic, the company managed to generate $33.5 billion in cash from its operations in the last quarter alone.

That's why Apple is considered the most valuable company in the world, and tech stocks have taken over the traditional role of staple stocks as save haven.

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This is what you get when you have an administration who's national plan is to let everyone else make a plan.

Like I said. Incoming nightmare. Most states don't even have this issue on their radar let alone horizon.

Another interesting observation from the man himself in the article.

A year ago, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell sounded an alarm, but he could barely be heard above the roar of the ascendant stock market. “Not only is the volume of debt high,” said Powell last May, “but recent growth has also been concentrated in the riskier forms of debt. . . . Among investment-grade bonds, a near-record fraction is at the lowest rating—a phenomenon known as the ‘triple-B cliff.’ ” Powell was referring to the fact that a large number of companies’ bonds were dangerously close to junk status. “Investors, financial institutions and regulators need to focus on this risk today, while times are good.”

Did anybody listen? Nooooooo!

Some interesting observations on Apple's revenue and stock price compared to some traditional staple stocks – Walmart, J&J, Campbell & Hormell. Walmart gross revenue is twice that of Apple, but Apple' gross revenue is higher than the other three (1st graph). Net revenue (Gross revenue – operating cost – cost of good sold – debt cost – R&D – SG&A - tax shown) on the second graph is where Apple trounced every single company in the world. Apple net revenue is almost 4 times that of Walmart.

Despite that Apple PE ratio of 24.84 is almost the same as Walmart 23.77 & J&J 22.73, and lower than Campbell 36.25 and Hormell 27.03. By that metric, Apple's stock right now is highly undervalued.

[Zan15]

That's why Apple is considered the most valuable company in the world, and tech stocks have taken over the traditional role of staple stocks as save haven.

whelp, time to be a wise ass!!!



aren't they now technically the 3nd most valuable now that Saudi Aramco is a public company and MSFT still kicking it.

Aramco at 38 IPO was around 2 trillion, they are now 33. So they should still be #1
MSFT Market Cap 1,391.6B
APPL Market Cap 1,382.2B


heheheheheeeeee

[Rasulis]

whelp, time to be a wise ass!!!



aren't they now technically the 3nd most valuable now that Saudi Aramco is a public company and MSFT still kicking it.

Aramco at 38 IPO was around 2 trillion, they are now 33. So they should still be #1
MSFT Market Cap 1,391.6B
APPL Market Cap 1,382.2B


heheheheheeeeee

True. However, I think Apple is considered more valuable than Microsoft, not because of market cap, but due to net revenue. Although Microsoft is catching up fast. I can't find an earning call for Aramco.

[Zan15]

Interesting observation in the article.



Does that mean companies like Apple don't carry debts? They do. Except they are conventional debts and the companies don't have to issue bonds for those debts. Which meant they are able to take advantage of the current low interest rates. For example, the current average interest rate on Apple debts is just over 1%.

Apple's balance sheet is even better. The 1st quarter 2020 Apple’s balance sheet show that the company holds a tremendous advantage over practically every other company on the planet. With more investors looking for safety in balance sheets, Apple is offering a fortress. At the end of the most recent quarter, Apple’s current assets included $60 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $73.9 billion in marketable securities. Among noncurrent assets, it had $138.8 billion in marketable securities. It’s also worth pointing out here that Apple is quickly creating one of, not only largest, but also fastest growing cash holdings among all U.S. firms. Despite the pandemic, the company managed to generate $33.5 billion in cash from its operations in the last quarter alone.

That's why Apple is considered the most valuable company in the world, and tech stocks have taken over the traditional role of staple stocks as save haven.

- - - Updated - - -



Did anybody listen? Nooooooo!

Some interesting observations on Apple's revenue and stock price compared to some traditional staple stocks – Walmart, J&J, Campbell & Hormell. Walmart gross revenue is twice that of Apple, but Apple' gross revenue is higher than the other three (1st graph). Net revenue (Gross revenue – operating cost – cost of good sold – debt cost – R&D – SG&A - tax shown) on the second graph is where Apple trounced every single company in the world. Apple net revenue is almost 4 times that of Walmart.

Despite that Apple PE ratio of 24.84 is almost the same as Walmart 23.77 & J&J 22.73, and lower than Campbell 36.25 and Hormell 27.03. By that metric, Apple's stock right now is highly undervalued.

They are up substantially with their debt because they have to pay out all those dividends and can't bring the money back into the US without a huge tax bill.

they wouldn't have anywhere near the debt or cash level they have now if they were not facing huge tax bills by having to actually pay the appropriate tax.

eventually this will catch up to them and all these other companies taking advantage of the worlds tax systems. EU is already setting the bar high for punishment.


BTW where did you see their interest rate aggregate? I can only see their range in their quarter statements and its .5%-4.85% but no itemization or average?

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True. However, I think Apple is considered more valuable than Microsoft, not because of market cap, but due to net revenue. Although Microsoft is catching up fast. I can't find an earning call for Aramco.

Saudi Aramco has announced a net income of $16.7 billion for the first three months of the year and dividends of $18.75 billion for shareholders

Despite posting the highest quarter dividends in 2020 of any listed company, its profits were 25% down, compared to the same time last year when earnings topped $22 billion

Aramco’s first quarter free cashflow came in at $15 billion


Aramco’s stock rose 1.3% to 31.30 riyals by 1:53 p.m. in Riyadh. It is down 11% this year, compared with Brent’s 54% drop. The company’s market value has declined from a peak of over $2 trillion to $1.6 trillion


So @ 31.30 its = 1.6 trillion, it closed at 33. so its over 1.7 trillion now.

https://www.saudiaramco.com/-/media/...68AD51DE6B18A9

of course all their results were at a net oil price of 51....yikes...

[Rasulis]

BTW where did you see their interest rate aggregate? I can only see their range in their quarter statements and its .5%-4.85% but no itemization or average?- - - Updated - - -

I'll have to look it up. I don't remember if it was a Bloomberg or WSJ article. It talked about how Apple aggregate debt interest rate has gone down from high 2% to under 2% through refinancing and is still going down. Microsoft, FB and Google are doing the same thing.

As for Aramco, at 1.7T market cap, their dividend yield came out to be around 4.4%. Higher than most oil companies. From purely accounting perspective, their balance sheet sucks.

[Zan15]

I'll have to look it up. I don't remember if it was a Bloomberg or WSJ article. It talked about how Apple aggregate debt interest rate has gone down from high 2% to under 2% through refinancing and is still going down. Microsoft, FB and Google are doing the same thing.

As for Aramco, at 1.7T market cap, their dividend yield came out to be around 4.4%. Higher than most oil companies. From purely accounting perspective, their balance sheet sucks.

Yup but what do you expect from an oil company.

problem is most of their cash most likely before they were semi public was siphoned off by royalty. Now they are just kind of sorta doing it legally.

[Draco-Onis]

I'll have to look it up. I don't remember if it was a Bloomberg or WSJ article. It talked about how Apple aggregate debt interest rate has gone down from high 2% to under 2% through refinancing and is still going down. Microsoft, FB and Google are doing the same thing.

As for Aramco, at 1.7T market cap, their dividend yield came out to be around 4.4%. Higher than most oil companies. From purely accounting perspective, their balance sheet sucks.

Aramco is basically a giant money laundering outfit for the Saudis, if you look into how Saudi citizens were "encouraged" to buy even borrow to buy stocks their "successful" launch was done at gun point.

[Breccia]

U.S.-China trade tensions are escalating again

"You already posted that."

True, a lot of the info we've seen before, but this part stands out:

Given the lull in imports during the January–March period, China would need to buy an "impossible" $2.9 billion of energy per month from April to December, Jason Bordoff, a former senior director at the U.S. National Security Council, writes in Foreign Policy.

"[A]t $30 per barrel (the U.S. government’s projected average price for 2020), that’s equivalent to about 3 million barrels of oil per day, or the total of all U.S. daily crude exports in 2019."

"That China would buy every last drop of exported U.S. oil is unrealistic enough — but today, that oil is not even available, as U.S. oil exports are projected to fall this year along with the collapse in U.S. shale output, which is projected to drop by roughly one-third over the next year."

That's not even COVID-19 related. It's just Trump signing a trade deal that's literally impossible to uphold.

[Rasulis]

Aramco is basically a giant money laundering outfit for the Saudis, if you look into how Saudi citizens were "encouraged" to buy even borrow to buy stocks their "successful" launch was done at gun point.

I personally think the whole oil industry is one giant money laundering system. That's why we made sure that we have no exposure to the industry in 2010.

The economic impact of COVID-19 will be felt for a long time. There will be no V-shaped recovery.

Texas bankruptcies are up, and Houston is the epicenter

More than 545 medium to large companies in Texas has filed for Chapter 11. Up 133% from same period last year. Many are national companies. Short list include J.C. Penney, Neiman Marcus, Diamond Offshore Drilling, Alta Mesa Resources, Echo Energy, Alta Petroleum, TriPoint Oilfield Services, Sheridan Holding, Stage Stores, Gold’s Gym, Pier 1 Imports, etc.

California also has its share of medium to large companies looking for Chapter 11 protection - Apex Park Group and True Religion. True Religion is a high end jeans maker. If you buy your jeans at Walmart, you probably never heard of them. Although California’s bankruptcy number is nowhere near Texas’ and the companies are smaller.

On the other hand, California’s unemployment number is higher than Texas. Driven by big losses in the entertainment, recreation, hospitality, food, tourism, transportation, export/import and retail sectors. Education also took a big hit. The University of California and California State University systems are #1 and #2 employers in California. Both are dead in the water right now.

The one blessing for California is that the state top performing sectors - Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Professional & Business Services, Government, Tech, Manufacturing and Construction escaped relatively unscathed. In fact Tech grew. NYSE is anticipating 15 new California IPOs this year. All in biotech/tele-medicine/digital medicine. Venture capital is also still very strong - 8 billion in March and 7.3 billion in April. Real estate is blazing hot right now. Redfin ranked the San Francisco/Bay Area as the most competitive real estate market in the US right now.

Most who got COVID-19 mortgage relief feel guilty about it now

A quarter of U.S. homeowners requested forbearance, and 80% of those applicants were approved, according to a survey done for LendingTree.

But only 5% who got the time-out on their mortgages say they wouldn't have been able to make their payments without the relief. Another 26.2% say they could have stayed current on their home loans but would have had to put off paying other important bills.

I just don't know what to say anymore.

[Somewhatconcerned]

DOW on the way back up? If umeployment shows even one iota of improvement from now until November....Biden gets the Walter Mondale treatment.

[Thepersona]

DOW on the way back up? If umeployment shows even one iota of improvement from now until November....Biden gets the Walter Mondale treatment.

Dow Jones =/= Health of the economy. And even less when 2nd waves are all but certain in the US. There will not be a quick recovery from this. The best case scenario is getting to pre-covid status in 2021 or 2022. Anyone thinking otherwise is delusional.

Again There will not be a V shaped recovery from this. Best case scenario, we'll get the U treatment. A high probability case scenario is that we'll get a W shaped economy (and we're in the first part of said W).

[Zan15]

DOW on the way back up? If umeployment shows even one iota of improvement from now until November....Biden gets the Walter Mondale treatment.

numbers are going to show "records"....and they will be positive records.

But getting a 90% return after losing 90% is not a recovery, is not even breaking even or even close.

Having record job numbers of 2 million jobs created in a month is a record, but....ya not hard to do with 40 million jobs lost.

the problem is the republicans and trumpheads are not smart enough to know or look for the aggregate number so their campaign will be sure to only mention the record 2 million jobs created say in July....not the 38 million lost in march-april-may.

3rd Q GDP is up bigly....ignoring 2nd Q expected 30+% drop!

[Breccia]

DOW on the way back up?

Indeed, it's almost back to 2018 territory.

Almost.

[Masark]

Again There will not be a V shaped recovery from this. Best case scenario, we'll get the U treatment. A high probability case scenario is that we'll get a W shaped economy (and we're in the first part of said W).

A backslash shaped economy sounds pretty likely too.

[Rasulis]

It is a very fragile recovery.

Boeing is up 5%. On the same day it laid off a bunch of employees in Winipeg and Seattle.

All the oil companies are up. Why? At $34 per barrel, every single one of them are in the red.
The number of US oil-producing companies filing for bankruptcy has exceeded 200 in the first quarter of 2020, and as billions of dollars in revenue have fallen amid low oil prices, thousands of workers have also lost their jobs. More bankruptcies are expected this year and next year.

Airlines also up. Again why? Pre-pandemic airlines require 80% seat occupancy to break even on long trips. With social distancing they are going to have to leave the middle seats vacant. Airlines will likely be operating in the red for awhile.

The same with cruise companies, resorts and casinos. All of them will operating at partial capacities.

[Thepersona]

It is a very fragile recovery.

Boeing is up 5%. On the same day it laid off a bunch of employees in Winipeg and Seattle.

All the oil companies are up. Why? At $34 per barrel, every single one of them are in the red.
The number of US oil-producing companies filing for bankruptcy has exceeded 200 in the first quarter of 2020, and as billions of dollars in revenue have fallen amid low oil prices, thousands of workers have also lost their jobs. More bankruptcies are expected this year and next year.

Airlines also up. Again why? Pre-pandemic airlines require 80% seat occupancy to break even on long trips. With social distancing they are going to have to leave the middle seats vacant. Airlines will likely be operating in the red for awhile.

The same with cruise companies, resorts and casinos. All of them will operating at partial capacities.

And all of this is assuming a second wave doesnt hits. Which is not going to happen, sadly

[Rasulis]

This is just an opinion piece. However, I happened to agree with the writer's sentiment. So here it is.

It's a perfect storm of stupid in the stock market right now

New investors are storming an erratic, uncertain market while all of planet Earth is desperate for a pharmaceutical breakthrough. What could go wrong?

There are a lot of words people who watch the markets use to describe their condition. Sometimes it's choppy; other times it's swooning. Right now the condition of the market is stupid.

A perfect storm of events has created this condition of stupidity, and each event contributes in its own special way. They are all related, of course, to the most important thing in our world at the moment: the coronavirus pandemic.

Thanks to the coronavirus, millions of Americans are bored at home, some without a job. And as a result, according to the Financial Times, 780,000 of these bored people have created accounts with the three of the four largest brokerages in the U.S.: Charles Schwab, E-Trade, and Interactive Brokers.

This herd of newbies has charged into the market at a time of incredible uncertainty. Hundreds of companies in the S&P 1500 have withdrawn their revenue guidance for 2020, leaving these new investors with little to go on in the way of forward-looking statements.

We know the second quarter will look much, much uglier than the first, but anyone who thinks they know how ugly is trying to call the score of a game before it's over and after the rules have completely changed.

You will not find a genius on Wall Street, in the Federal Reserve, or at NASA who can call what is about to happen in the stock market. So no matter how smart your friend with the new trading account thinks they are, tell them (gently) that they cannot call it either.

Trading is hard, anyone will tell you, and it is in large part a mind game. To get it right, you have to understand your emotions and your biases. This is why there is a whole cottage industry of psychiatrist trading coaches.

At this moment, almost every human being has an innate bias toward finding a coronavirus vaccine or treatment. The market is reflecting the depth of emotion behind that bias in its wild fluctuations whenever there is even the slightest news about a vaccine breakthrough.

Last week we saw two companies make headlines without even remotely having the data to back it up. The most impactful ones were about Moderna, which said last week that patients in a trial of its vaccine candidate had positive immune responses.

The market lost its mind on that news. The company's stock jumped 26%. Moderna's CEO, Stephane Bancel, did a victory-lap interview for a credulous Joe Kernen on CNBC. Literally overnight the company raised $1.4 billion. The whole market rallied. It was a true Cinderella story.

It took a full 24 hours before the market actually read the results from Moderna's clinical trial, which cited coronavirus antibodies forming in only eight patients. The market also noticed that the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which was partnering with the company, did not release an endorsement of its findings as it usually does.

Once the market digested all of that, Moderna's stock fell over 10%, and the market went with it. No one did their homework, and no one has since apologized. Welcome to Wall Street. The market didn't learn its lesson either. On Wednesday, Inovio Pharmaceuticals announced that its COVID-19 vaccine candidate had produced positive results in animals and that it expected data in the coming weeks. The stock jumped over 8%.

The pharmaceutical industry was already opaque and scammy. Now suddenly everyone in the stock market is invested in a specific outcome from the sector. They want to be the person who scores big on a lifesaving treatment. In fact, they'll be afraid to miss out on opportunities. I have an extremely active subconscious, and I could not have dreamt of a more perfect condition for separating investors from their money if I tried.

Wall Street, of course, is beside itself trying to grasp on to something through this uncertainty. It is already a culture where original thinking can be frowned upon (it might upset your boss or your client), where every assumption is based on an old model, and where everyone is cribbing each other's work.

There is no model for the economic reopening from the coronavirus pandemic, and the closest possible model we have — China — is flawed. And it's flawed not only because the numbers China has provided the world about its coronavirus experience are extremely dubious, but because the U.S. is simply not going to get off the mat as China did. Our economies are too different.

Some of Wall Street understands this, and some of it doesn't. In the column of people who get it you may place Robin Xing, Morgan Stanley's chief China economist, and Andrew Sheets, its chief cross-asset strategist.

In a short podcast for investors, Xing explained what China watchers already know: China's economic rebound has been led by manufacturing and industrial sectors. The country's service sector, especially when it comes to transportation and leisure, is still pretty dormant. Consumption is low, as the economic deep freeze of strict lockdowns hit households and small and midsize businesses (much of China's private sector) the hardest.

That is bad news for the U.S. Most of our economy is made up of small and midsize businesses in the service sector. Consumption is what we do. Manufacturing makes up such a small part of this picture that last year was the worst year for the sector since the financial crisis and the U.S. economy hummed right along, shrugging it off.

Manufacturing will not lead America out of this economic malaise; it simply isn't big enough. The coronavirus pandemic has hit our economy exactly where it counts: in services. The China model isn't going to work here.

In sum, what we have in the market is an unholy mess. We have bored, unseasoned, emotionally conflicted investors playing around in a murky pool where one of the most opaque sectors has the ability to make the biggest waves. It's very stupid — people are going to drown.

[Thepersona]

This is just an opinion piece. However, I happened to agree with the writer's sentiment. So here it is.

It's a perfect storm of stupid in the stock market right now

This tell me that reality will catch up with delusional optimism again, as it always does. And the punch wont be pretty.

PS: The photo of that article was taken in chile, in the massive protests of last year!