1. #3301
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    This is just an opinion piece. However, I happened to agree with the writer's sentiment. So here it is.
    Thanks, I was looking at this thread trying to find the right words for my sentiment now. This nailed it.

    I mean take Boeing. Riddled with debt, its biggest hope for sales grounded before the pandemic and now the pandemic has all but killed their commerical order book. And they are only down 50% in the past year? (And up 50% since 20 March) It actually beggars belief.

    I don't believe Boeing will go bankrupt, they are the very definition of too big to fail, the government will bail them out. But how their share price hasn't tanked beyond all reason is gobsmacking.

    Same with others like Occidental Petroleum. $21B in revenue (before the oil price crashed) $40B in debt. I mean what the actual fuck? How are companies like this even more than penny stocks?

  2. #3302
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deja Thoris View Post
    Thanks, I was looking at this thread trying to find the right words for my sentiment now. This nailed it.

    I mean take Boeing. Riddled with debt, its biggest hope for sales grounded before the pandemic and now the pandemic has all but killed their commerical order book. And they are only down 50% in the past year? (And up 50% since 20 March) It actually beggars belief.

    I don't believe Boeing will go bankrupt, they are the very definition of too big to fail, the government will bail them out. But how their share price hasn't tanked beyond all reason is gobsmacking.

    Same with others like Occidental Petroleum. $21B in revenue (before the oil price crashed) $40B in debt. I mean what the actual fuck? How are companies like this even more than penny stocks?
    Easy to understand.

    If I put my money in a place that might go under, I'll gamble and maybe lose. (Normal)
    If I put my money in a place where it may go down but will always be propped up financially by the government to stay afloat it's almost impossible to "lose" all you've invested. (Boeing)
    Quote Originally Posted by Crissi View Post
    Quit using other posters as levels of crazy. That is not ok


    If you look, you can see the straw man walking a red herring up a slippery slope coming to join this conversation.

  3. #3303
    Quote Originally Posted by Deja Thoris View Post
    Thanks, I was looking at this thread trying to find the right words for my sentiment now. This nailed it.

    I mean take Boeing. Riddled with debt, its biggest hope for sales grounded before the pandemic and now the pandemic has all but killed their commerical order book. And they are only down 50% in the past year? (And up 50% since 20 March) It actually beggars belief.

    I don't believe Boeing will go bankrupt, they are the very definition of too big to fail, the government will bail them out. But how their share price hasn't tanked beyond all reason is gobsmacking.

    Same with others like Occidental Petroleum. $21B in revenue (before the oil price crashed) $40B in debt. I mean what the actual fuck? How are companies like this even more than penny stocks?
    Share prices aren't just revenue based but also trust and supply and demand.
    You trust that Boeing will survive so why sell.
    As you can see only 1 major shareholders sold allot of Boeing shares while at the same time two other shareholders bought additional shares.
    https://money.cnn.com/quote/sharehol...=institutional

  4. #3304
    Quote Originally Posted by ati87 View Post
    Share prices aren't just revenue based but also trust and supply and demand.
    You trust that Boeing will survive so why sell.
    As you can see only 1 major shareholders sold allot of Boeing shares while at the same time two other shareholders bought additional shares.
    https://money.cnn.com/quote/sharehol...=institutional
    I mean the fact that I spoke about debt means I get its not just about revenue. The fact that I spoke about the Max being grounded speaks to both demand and trust. Thanks for parroting the same stuff back at me with different words.

  5. #3305
    Tuesday Morning, another TX based retailer with 687 stores, has filed Chapter 11. Wot! I just realized that a company named Tuesday Morning declared bankruptcy on Tuesday morning. Rather apropos.

    Dell suspended hiring and 401k sharing. At least the company is not laying off people.

    Google Gives Employees $1,000 Each To Buy Work-From-Home Equipment.
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2020-05-27 at 04:34 PM.

  6. #3306
    Trump is on secret documents admitting to raping children to please Satan. This is the truth to mega media complex doesn;t want you to know. Supporting Trump is supporting raping children for satans pleasure. These are the FACTS the media doesn't want you to know.

    Stop supporting child rape republicans.

  7. #3307
    Quote Originally Posted by Deja Thoris View Post

    Same with others like Occidental Petroleum. $21B in revenue (before the oil price crashed) $40B in debt. I mean what the actual fuck? How are companies like this even more than penny stocks?
    21 billion a year revenue vs 40 billion in debt due over 1-3-5-10+ years.
    Not to mention oil back above 30, they were still making money before the crash.

    not as bad as one thinks

    They will most likely just file for bankruptcy to re-organize their debt. No bail out will be needed.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by ati87 View Post
    Share prices aren't just revenue based but also trust and supply and demand.
    You trust that Boeing will survive so why sell.
    As you can see only 1 major shareholders sold allot of Boeing shares while at the same time two other shareholders bought additional shares.
    https://money.cnn.com/quote/sharehol...=institutional

    66.60% % of Shares Held by Institutions (I love the yahoo finance number)

    These huge funds can sit on Boeing for years and end up making all they lost back
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  8. #3308
    Quote Originally Posted by Somewhatconcerned View Post
    DOW on the way back up? If umeployment shows even one iota of improvement from now until November....Biden gets the Walter Mondale treatment.
    To get a landslide victory, what Trump and his allies have to do is to get the stock market over 30k and be rising in late October / early November, and have the economy be strong enough that he can lie and say it's THE GREATEST BESTEST ECONOMY OF ALL TIME.

    Right now, it seems like everything is on track for both of these conditions to happen. The economy will crater by July or maybe August, will start recovering a little bit, and in November everything that happened in July will be forgotten.

    When will there be a nice big stimulus that will benefit the middle class and working class people, even the unemployed ones? Somewhere around September, with benefits being received in October, with the spending spree just in time for the election.

    This would be one straightforward way to get Trump a landslide victory. It won't be Reagan/Mondale level with 49 states going to Trump, but I can see Trump surpassing 400 electoral votes.

  9. #3309
    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    21 billion a year revenue vs 40 billion in debt due over 1-3-5-10+ years.
    Not to mention oil back above 30, they were still making money before the crash.

    not as bad as one thinks

    They will most likely just file for bankruptcy to re-organize their debt. No bail out will be needed.

    - - - Updated - - -




    66.60% % of Shares Held by Institutions (I love the yahoo finance number)

    These huge funds can sit on Boeing for years and end up making all they lost back
    21 billion is gross revenue. Occidental net revenue for 2019 is -0.985B. For 1st quarter 2020 is -2.232B. For 2nd quarter with the month of April and reduced production is estimated to be on the order of -6 to -7.5B.

    Oil just dropped again after API estimated on Tuesday a large crude oil inventory build of 8.731 million barrels for the week ending May 22.

    Chevron sees job cuts up to 15% in pullback affecting thousands.

  10. #3310
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    To get a landslide victory, what Trump and his allies have to do is to get the stock market over 30k and be rising in late October / early November, and have the economy be strong enough that he can lie and say it's THE GREATEST BESTEST ECONOMY OF ALL TIME.

    Right now, it seems like everything is on track for both of these conditions to happen. The economy will crater by July or maybe August, will start recovering a little bit, and in November everything that happened in July will be forgotten.

    When will there be a nice big stimulus that will benefit the middle class and working class people, even the unemployed ones? Somewhere around September, with benefits being received in October, with the spending spree just in time for the election.

    This would be one straightforward way to get Trump a landslide victory. It won't be Reagan/Mondale level with 49 states going to Trump, but I can see Trump surpassing 400 electoral votes.
    sad part is the stock market is going to most likely be at records and 80-90% of the people voting for trump will have no positive effect because of it.
    most of them are likely to still be in financial hardship and recovery.

    but when has voting against their very interest ever stopped a republican
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  11. #3311
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    To get a landslide victory, what Trump and his allies have to do is to get the stock market over 30k and be rising in late October / early November, and have the economy be strong enough that he can lie and say it's THE GREATEST BESTEST ECONOMY OF ALL TIME.

    Right now, it seems like everything is on track for both of these conditions to happen. The economy will crater by July or maybe August, will start recovering a little bit, and in November everything that happened in July will be forgotten.

    When will there be a nice big stimulus that will benefit the middle class and working class people, even the unemployed ones? Somewhere around September, with benefits being received in October, with the spending spree just in time for the election.

    This would be one straightforward way to get Trump a landslide victory. It won't be Reagan/Mondale level with 49 states going to Trump, but I can see Trump surpassing 400 electoral votes.
    Not going to happen. We wont be in a better shape until early-mid 2021. As many people said, the market is being propped up artificially, and when a second wave hits (a month from now) everything will go to shit. The Op-ed that was posted a few hours ago succintly said it: The US is horribly prepared for a pandemic recovery, as it relies mostly on services, and said services will not go back to pre-covid status until (as i said before) 2021.
    Dow will tank again in june-july. Because naive optimism often crashes and burns in the face of reality. V shaped recovery is a farce that people should learn to dismiss.
    Last edited by Thepersona; 2020-05-28 at 01:36 AM.
    Forgive my english, as i'm not a native speaker



  12. #3312
    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    To get a landslide victory, what Trump and his allies have to do is to get the stock market over 30k and be rising in late October / early November, and have the economy be strong enough that he can lie and say it's THE GREATEST BESTEST ECONOMY OF ALL TIME.

    Right now, it seems like everything is on track for both of these conditions to happen. The economy will crater by July or maybe August, will start recovering a little bit, and in November everything that happened in July will be forgotten.

    When will there be a nice big stimulus that will benefit the middle class and working class people, even the unemployed ones? Somewhere around September, with benefits being received in October, with the spending spree just in time for the election.

    This would be one straightforward way to get Trump a landslide victory. It won't be Reagan/Mondale level with 49 states going to Trump, but I can see Trump surpassing 400 electoral votes.
    I don't think the stock market trajectory is sustainable. Only 30% of companies in the S&P 500 are profitable right now. People are investing in companies like Moderna which has never had a single profitable year since its inception, and may never become profitable, ever. That is the nature of biotech startups. The same with Boeing. I am sure one day it will become a profitable company again. Just not in the next two or three years. It will be a slow climb. Ditto for oil companies. Actually, I am pretty confident in saying that most oil companies will never ever become profitable again.
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2020-05-28 at 01:30 AM.

  13. #3313
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    I don't think the stock market trajectory is sustainable. Only 30% of companies in the S&P 500 are profitable right now.
    Is this a case of "buy now because everyone is selling so it's cheap and we know it'll go up eventually"?

  14. #3314
    Quote Originally Posted by Thepersona View Post
    Not going to happen. We wont be in a better shape until early-mid 2021. As many people said, the market is being propped up artificially, and when a second wave hits (a month from now) everything will go to shit. The Op-ed that was posted a few hours ago succintly said it: The US is horribly prepared for a pandemic recovery, as it relies mostly on services, and said services will not go back to pre-covid status until (as i said before) 2021.
    Dow will tank again in june-july. Because naive optimism often crashes and burns in the face of reality. V shaped recovery is a farce that people should learn to dismiss.
    i dont think it will be a second wave that does it, it will be an attempt by businesses to make up lost revenue and profits through layoffs instead of just pushing to get back to where we were they would rather "short term" it with layoffs and forced buyouts.

    when unemployment drags double digits for the forseable future and more stimulus dies in the senate then i will worry about the second crushing of the market

    This week we are starting to see these strats play out. IBM, Boeing...to name a few of the majors.
    All it takes are a few just like in march when no one wanted to be the first to furlough till one or two major airlines started the drive then the flood started.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Is this a case of "buy now because everyone is selling so it's cheap and we know it'll go up eventually"?
    everyone thinks because something went down 30-40-50% that its a steal...

    you can only say that right now in two scenario's.

    1- you have nothing but time to wait it out on a strong company like banks for instance, nothing but time and they are going nowhere.
    2- Short term gambling.

    i gambled on citibank and they have had one hell of a run the last week, but it will be at least 2 years for them to get back to where they were profit wise. i will prob bail on it tomorrow.
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  15. #3315
    Quote Originally Posted by Thepersona View Post
    Not going to happen. We wont be in a better shape until early-mid 2021. As many people said, the market is being propped up artificially, and when a second wave hits (a month from now) everything will go to shit. The Op-ed that was posted a few hours ago succintly said it: The US is horribly prepared for a pandemic recovery, as it relies mostly on services, and said services will not go back to pre-covid status until (as i said before) 2021.
    Dow will tank again in june-july. Because naive optimism often crashes and burns in the face of reality. V shaped recovery is a farce that people should learn to dismiss.
    The June-July time frame starts in 3 days and ends in 2 months.

    I am putting a lot of faith in the business community propping up the appearances of success, which is what our whole mainstream media has been doing for the last month and even longer. There are two reasons why this attempt might fail.

    Number 1: One popular theory is that the underlying rot is so bad that there just won't be any way to hide it, which is precisely what you are predicting. This is definitely a likely scenario.

    Number 2: The economy does not tank THAT badly, but the mainstream media lying so much so frequently and so unbelievably turns people against the people in charge. This is already starting to happen.

    The meat lobby is one example of a group that is used to basically winning every single battle. But now their attempts at justifying paying next to nothing for people to risk their lives to pack meat for them are backfiring. They are looking like a very dangerous bully, and their lack of workplace safety is infecting surrounding neighborhoods. They tried to blame this on stupid unclean workers who got the virus and then spread it at work, but that approach made them look dishonest and dangerous.

    If both scenarios don't pan out, I can see Trump successfully running a "it was NEVER that bad, and I did a GREAT BESTEST job" campaign. If both scenarios come true, democrats could run the table. We should know a lot more in a couple of months. 100k deaths happened, but SO FAR the business community has successfully propped up the Trump Presidency.

  16. #3316
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...c-projections/

    THE ECONOMY IS GOING SO FUCKING AMAZINGLY THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WILL NOT RELESE FORMAL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE SUMMER! MAGA!

    This seems..."fine"...

    - - - Updated - - -

    Figure this is relevant - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2341N9

    While workers are being laid off or furloughed, while small businesses are desperately trying to secure loans to prevent them from going under during this so that they can rehire staff when they can reopen, while people are going on unemployment because companies claim they can't pay them.

    Companies are bending over backwards to protect the multi-million dollar benefits packages for their executives.

    Eat. The. Rich.

  17. #3317
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...c-projections/

    THE ECONOMY IS GOING SO FUCKING AMAZINGLY THAT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION WILL NOT RELESE FORMAL ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE SUMMER! MAGA!

    This seems..."fine"...

    - - - Updated - - -

    Figure this is relevant - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2341N9

    While workers are being laid off or furloughed, while small businesses are desperately trying to secure loans to prevent them from going under during this so that they can rehire staff when they can reopen, while people are going on unemployment because companies claim they can't pay them.

    Companies are bending over backwards to protect the multi-million dollar benefits packages for their executives.

    Eat. The. Rich.
    @Omega10, see this. Shit's not going to be good until 2021, and it will be so bad that the federal government will be witholding information, to save face.
    Forgive my english, as i'm not a native speaker



  18. #3318
    Since the discussion has drifted from the stock market to economic recovery, here is my outtake from the perspective of someone who had worked in CA, TX, FL, IL, WA and OR.

    The pace of recovery will vary widely from state to state, and between metro areas. In CA, and US, the SF/Bay Area region will likely recover the fastest. It has the lowest COVID-19 case and death numbers of all metro areas, the lowest unemployment, and the region is mainly driven by digital and financial based economy. LA/Orange County will take a lot longer to recover. It has the highest unemployment, and more than half of the COVID-19 case and mortality in CA. The ports, the movie industry, and light to medium manufacturing sectors which drive the region economy were hit hard. San Diego is somewhere in between. Its economy is not as digitally oriented as SF/Bay Area, but it is a hub for a lot of biotech and medical research companies. Most of San Diego manufacturing, with the exception of the shipyards, is concentrated mostly in biomedical.

    Seattle and Portland recovery will likely track closely to that of San Diego. Although Boeing's layoff is probably going to be an anchor on Seattle's middle class economy for awhile. However, it does have Microsoft and Amazon.

    Oil states like TX, AL, OK, LA, KS and NM will have a hard time recovering. Those states will likely see a repeat of 2015 - 2017 with the proliferation of oil ghost towns. Except this time it will be worse than back then. “God Grant Me One More Oil Boom and I Promise Not to Screw It Up” is a popular bumper sticker in TX. He gave and he took away. He took away a lot this time. People in the industry who had seen five boom & bust cycles never seen it this bad before.

    Metro areas that are oil-industry dependent, Houston & Dallas, will take longer to recover also. Austin recovery will probably parallel San Diego. A good indicator is the housing market. Austin housing market is ranked as highly competitive, while Houston and Dallas are ranked as buyers’ friendly market.

    Florida will depend a lot on how quickly the tourism and cruise industry recover. I don’t think travel and tourism are foremost in most people’s mind. Not to mention the non-existent international tourists which make up a large segment of Florida tourism.

    We’ll have to see. I don’t think the overall picture will be as rosy as the market sees it. The so called tech hub regions will recover faster, and the rest of the country will lag behind badly.
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2020-05-28 at 06:14 PM.

  19. #3319
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    We’ll have to see. I don’t think the overall picture will be as rosy as the market sees it. The so called tech hub regions will recover faster, and the rest of the country will lag behind badly.
    The markets have a vested interest to make things look as rosy as possible. And that's the problem i'm seeing here, that naive optimism crashes and burns under reality.
    Forgive my english, as i'm not a native speaker



  20. #3320
    Quote Originally Posted by Thepersona View Post
    The markets have a vested interest to make things look as rosy as possible. And that's the problem i'm seeing here, that naive optimism crashes and burns under reality.
    We learned from the 2000 tech bubble era that you can only fake it for so long. That fake period has gotten a lot shorter with all the analytical tools that we have these days.

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