Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Breccia]

Obama brought it way, way, way down. Then Trump brought it a tiny bit further, very briefly

Even leaving aside the "briefly" part (which is correct, just so we're clear) Obama reduced employment by both a larger number, and by a larger percent, than Trump did.

As you and everyone else has said, Trump is celebrating because in his first year (so, debatable that he even did anything yet) the number that was going down kept going down a little more. He is leaving off the part, of course, that 40 million unemployed means his promise of 25 million new jobs is now reversed.

Actually, wait, I'll be back in a few minutes.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Hmm. Lowest unemployment. Going to need an asterisk on that one.

Is that because the person claiming the record turned out to be on drugs?

I'm just wondering if they handle this the same as baseball.

[cubby]

We went from 8 years growth to less then 4 years of free fall and it basically wiping out those 8 years.

It is almost surreal.

Completely. And worse, Trump was already tanking the economy before pandemic, with his tiny-hands trade "war" and wreaking havoc on healthcare and the yuge tax break for the rich. The fucking worst part is that he can point to a horrific economy/unemployment and blame it on the coronavirus.

[pathora44]

I hate this guy compares himself to Lincoln, who was a liberal, a mailman, a postmaster, and supported mail in voting. He is the antithesis of Lincoln. The whole republican party is.

Oh no worries there was a poll of Republicans and around 55% of them felt Trump was the best Republican president more then Lincoln. I have a sinking suspicion it has something to do with Lincoln being the leader that defeated the Confederates and freed black people. So does it surprise you that a over half of Republicans publicly love Lincoln but privately hate him.

[Breccia]

Okay, so I've been linking BLS for years now. You've seen the charts as much as I have.

I have never seen this before.



That's not fake. Check the dot-gov link yourself. The drop off was that steep and that dramatic.

BUT. That's not what I wanted to say.

Trump promised 25 million new jobs. In fact, let's cite this CNN article from Jan 20, 2017:

It's not just a slogan. The new president promises his plans will create 25 million new jobs in the next decade. It would be the most jobs created under any U.S. president ever, topping even the nearly 23 million jobs added under President Bill Clinton during the boom years of the 1990s.

"We will bring back our jobs. We will bring back our borders. We will bring back our wealth, and we will bring back our dreams," Trump said. That line generated the most fervent applause.

It might as well be called Trump's economic red line.

Trump has tapped into the economic anxiety so many Americans feel. While many acknowledge they are better off than they were in the worst days of the Great Recession -- when 1 in 10 Americans were unemployed, and millions had lost their homes -- too many still do not feel fully recovered.

For Trump, no place exemplifies the struggles of Americans than the Rust Belt. He won the election by turning many counties in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania -- key manufacturing states -- from blue to red.

The only specifics he mentioned in his inaugural address were building new highways, bridges, railways and airports "all across our wonderful nation."

Trump has outlined the rest of his plan on his website and during the campaign. In addition to infrastructure spending, he wants a massive tax cut for businesses and individuals, a rollback of regulations and renegotiating trade deals and actions, especially with China and Mexico.

CNN goes on to list 5 problems: 1) America is older 2) Automation 3) The debt 4) World economy has slowed with the US's 5) Trade wars kill jobs. Hmm. Can't help but notice those last three were spot-on.

Anyhow, according to BLS, from Jan 2017 to Dec 2019 (giving Trump every single crumb of credit he could possibly claim) he saw 6,556,000 jobs created. Over three years. No, he was not on pace to get 25 million at the end of eight years. And notice that cutoff point. 2019 was his best year by 2,000 jobs due to a sudden, mysterious spike in job numbers in Dec, without which 2019 would have been worse than 2017 which was worse than 2018.

And then.

Forty million people filed for unemployment. BLS stops at April, of course, the May numbers aren't official, no fault there. But even according to the numbers stopping at April, Trump has lost 14,611,000 jobs. Not only losing everything he ever saw added twice over, but if this averaged rate were to continue, he'd lose 25 million and more jobs in 8 years.

Based on more recent numbers, even though they're not on BLS yet, we know Trump already passed that. Will most come back? Probably. I feel confident saying "most". But I've personally linked experts who say 10% unemployment by Election Day. And I posted those weeks ago. As @Zan15 has said, those predictions are outdated and newer ones are probably worse. In fact, hold on.

Yep, found one. From five days ago:

The median decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth from the committee members' individual forecasts was 5.4 percent from the end of 2019 to the end of 2020. The median unemployment rate projected for the end of 2020 by the committee was 10.9 percent, falling to 8.4 percent in 2021 and 5.9 percent in 2022.

Projections of the unemployment rate by the end of 2020 range from less than 7 percent to 18 percent, while expectations for 2021 ranged from less than 5 percent to 13 percent.

Here's one from seven days ago:

There was a similarly bleak prediction for the unemployment rate. The forecasters’ median estimate for the unemployment rate in May’s jobs report, which will come out on June 5, was 20 percent. By the end of the year, they think the unemployment rate will still be very high by historical standards — the median estimate for the unemployment rate in the December jobs report, which will come out in January 2021, was 12 percent.

In general, the consensus of the forecasters was that there is only an 18 percent chance that the unemployment rate will fall below 10 percent this year, and a 36 percent chance that it won’t fall below 10 percent until after the second quarter of 2021 — over a year from now.

And this one's from four hours ago:

According to the official data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), more than 23 million jobs have been lost, with the reported U3 unemployment rate at a record-high 14.7% in April. However, the U6 statistic (a broader measure of underemployment) painted an even bleaker picture in April: over 36 million unemployed, for a 22.8% unemployment rate.

Yet, even U6 may not fully capture the extent of the pain. Betsey Stevenson, currently a Professor of Economics and Public Policy at University of Michigan’s Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy and formerly a member of the Council of Economic Advisers and Chief Economist of the U.S. Department of Labor, indicated April data included some incorrect classifications. “Interviewers were told to classify people who were employed but absent from work due to COVID-19 related reasons as temporarily unemployed. Many did this incorrectly – correcting for this error raises the [U3] unemployment rate to nearly 20%.” With these miscalculations and backlogs in registering unemployment claims in many states, the shadow unemployment number could be closer to 30%.

"What does the White House economic forecast say?"

It says "I don't exist" They stopped doing it because the numbers looked bad.

That said, feel free to look at predictions about 2020 made in 2019. None of them were talking about amazing growth anyhow. Trump was never going to keep that promise. If you thought he would, don't even bother trying to justify why you thought that. You were wrong. You were objectively wrong.

Now, in case people are saying "well 10 percent and up isn't really that bad" I want to add this:

To give you an idea of how terrible a double-digit unemployment rate potentially sustained over 21 months would be, the unemployment rate had been at or above 10 percent for only 11 months total from 1948 through 2019.

It is possible that Trump's words, actions, and inactions will cause the majority of over-10% unemployment rate since he was alive. Not just Obama. Not just while he was tweeting. Not since he was a businessman. Born. You have to go back to 1940 for more over ten's. Trump was born in 1946.

Now, to the best of my knowledge, the highest unemployment rate I could find was 24.9% in 1933. That's a year-long average, I think, and even 2020's not going to top that , not as a year-long average. But if Trump gets to brag about the lowest unemployment for African-Americans because it happened briefly, then guess what? If the unemployment rate hits 24.9% or higher, everyone else gets to say Trump had the worst unemployment rate since, and including, the Great Depression.

"But that's because --"

If you get to make excuses for Trump's poor results, I get to handwave his good ones, such as "Obama's policies were still in effect through 2017". You sure you want that? I mean, you're fucked either way, so make a choice. If a Trump supporter tries to handwave Trump's words and actions and inactions leading to poor results, we get to handwave his good results. Anything else would be hypocrisy.

The rabid fanbase has until May's unemployment BLS numbers are official. That's...a week? Think it over. Take your time. As always, if you don't choose, I get to choose for you, and also you're a spineless fucking coward for failing to answer.

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Is that because the person claiming the record turned out to be on drugs?

He might be, we all saw the drawer pic. But I meant "there were special circumstances that require an explanation". See above wall of text for more info.

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Trump was already tanking the economy before pandemic

Forecasts from 2019 about 2020 almost universally showed slowed growth. Since I just happen to stumble across one in my latest post, I'll just copy it over.

Recapping Pre COVID-19 Forecasts

Before digging into this year’s survey results, we recap highlights from our December 2019 survey:

• GDP growth estimate for 2020 was 1.8% (median forecast, 4Q/4Q)
• Top factors affecting economic growth: trade policy, business confidence & private credit market conditions
• Top risks to economic forecasts: trade/tariffs and global growth for both the up and downside
• The probability of a recession in the next 12 months was 25% on average (high 65%, low 10%)
• Economists expected the unemployment rate to tick up slightly to 3.7% in 2020
• 50% of respondents believed the Fed’s next rate move would be up (44% down, 6% on hold)
• Economists expected inflation (measured by the PCE deflator) to increase to 2.1% in 2020
• 57% of respondents noted the Phase 1 trade deal with China would prevent future tariffs (36% not enough information, 7% no change); 80% of respondents expected the final deal to be light (eliminating tariffs/reducing U.S. trade deficit), with 13% no deal and 7% full (including IP protection)

In summary, while there were concerns around slowing global economic growth, the U.S. economy was holding up well. Trade and tariffs were top of mind, not labor market conditions or plummeting into a recession. And then came COVID-19.

Read over that list carefully. Basically anything that's not worse, is flat. GDP of 1.8%, by the way, if that had happened, would have averaged 2.35% GDP growth over four years.

Want to guess who did better than that?

Obama.

Trump was getting worse numbers than the "worst President ever" he ran against. Before COVID-19. Before his failure of Phase One. Before the military force used on unarmed civilians. Before 2020. So try all the excuses "But..." all you want. You were already losing. At best, you can come up with an excuse that says you shouldn't be losing by this much. But you picked a failed businessman, and he gave you failed businessman results. Even before the store was shut down by the Health Department, and was burned down for the insurance.

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Look, I know I'm supposed to leave a gap between posts for other people, and yes I am going on at great length.

I apologize.

But.

President Biden will be at George Floyd's funeral.

Regardless of what this says about the Floyd family or the Bidens as human beings, praying for peace etc., this is a massive political win for Biden. Trump's "what do you have to lose?" will be fucking eviscerated by the silent still images of Biden at Floyd's coffin. He won't have to mention it once. He won't have to post them a single time.

Trump could not have fucked up any harder unless, I dunno, GOP Senators were calling out his photo op as --

There is a fundamental—a Constitutional—right to protest, and I'm against clearing out a peaceful protest for a photo op that treats the Word of God as a political prop

-- Sasse

I was being sarcastic.

We will not be asking the United States military to come into the state of Texas because we know the Texans can take care of Texas

-- Gov. Abbott

I don’t think the Pentagon’s keen on getting brought into this unless they absolutely have to. We need to restore order, but using active-duty military troops in circumstances like this is a fairly rare occurrence — so as a last resort

-- Sen. Graham, as related by his wife in the shower

There are only so many lifeboats on the Titanic. Just run.

[cubby]

Regardless of what this says about the Floyd family or the Bidens as human beings, praying for peace etc., this is a massive political win for Biden. Trump's "what do you have to lose?" will be fucking eviscerated by the silent still images of Biden at Floyd's coffin. He won't have to mention it once. He won't have to post them a single time.

Trump could not have fucked up any harder unless, I dunno, GOP Senators were calling out his photo op as --

-- Sasse

I was being sarcastic.

-- Gov. Abbott

-- Sen. Graham, as related by his wife in the shower

There are only so many lifeboats on the Titanic. Just run.

The GOP leadership has been dangerously silent on Trump's actions over the past week. Usually that means they are putting their coiffed heads together to find some talking points that either hand-wave away Team Deplorable's most recent actions or find someway to spin them into marginal fluff ("what he meant was").

We'll obviously have to see what comes out, but they have to be looking at the tanking numbers Team Deplorable is creating, and Moscow Mitch is certainly contemplating a future job as the Senate Minority Leader of Trump keeps fucking up.

[Pannonian]

Well, we are now in a timeline where the sentence "The SS is attacking peaceful protestors" doesn't automatically imply the country anymore.

Go Germany!

[Breccia]

Go Germany!

It's easy to clarify. It's the one that had a leader gassing people while hiding in a bunker.

[beanman12345]

The GOP leadership has been dangerously silent on Trump's actions over the past week. Usually that means they are putting their coiffed heads together to find some talking points that either hand-wave away Team Deplorable's most recent actions or find someway to spin them into marginal fluff ("what he meant was").

We'll obviously have to see what comes out, but they have to be looking at the tanking numbers Team Deplorable is creating, and Moscow Mitch is certainly contemplating a future job as the Senate Minority Leader of Trump keeps fucking up.

They'll fall in line, they always do. They are such bitches. They have conceded everything to Trump, to the doom of them all, they don't care. Just gotta make as much money as they can and put in as many judges as they can before the party is officially dead.

[Breccia]

The GOP leadership has been dangerously silent on Trump's actions

Mostly, but not all of them.

1) This FOX News headline Barr ordered officials to clear area around Lafayette Square before Trump’s protest remarks, officials say. Which sounds suspiciously like scapegoating. Also, in the article, Barr claims someone threw a bottle at him, which would give him all the loophole he needed if it was true. If.

2) If the name 43 Alumni For Biden sounds suspicious, it should. It's a Super PAC formed by, well, "alums of 43" as in the 43rd President as in George W Bush.

Trump has been sequentially testing the limits of his supporters -- costing their jobs, costing their freedom, costing their money, and now shitting on their religion. I wonder how many of them are quietly eyeing the door. Trump is down by 4 to 10 vs Biden in recent polls, and Biden's barely said anything.

[Pannonian]

It's easy to clarify. It's the one that had a leader gassing people while hiding in a bunker.

You mean the one stoking the fears of his base at his cult like rallies?

[Breccia]

They have conceded everything to Trump, to the doom of them all, they don't care.

That's what I've been saying, mostly at least. The fact is, the GOP knows full well they can't turn on Trump, they'll lose his base and therefore the election. It's the same reason why they attached themselves to the Religious Right and the gun nuts -- two groups that don't otherwise fit the Republican platform. They would lose elections otherwise. Since they can't win without the, well, racist sexist hatemongers that Trump calls very fine people up until they murder someone in broad daylight, they only chance they have left is a miracle -- Trump somehow winning, despite his record.

Even thought it's a tactical choice, they still deserve to be shown for the moral and ethical failures for doing so.

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George W Bush speaks out.

Laura and I are anguished by the brutal suffocation of George Floyd and disturbed by the injustice and fear that suffocate our country. Yet we have resisted the urge to speak out, because this is not the time for us to lecture. It is time for us to listen. It is time for America to examine our tragic failures – and as we do, we will also see some of our redeeming strengths.

It remains a shocking failure that many African Americans, especially young African American men, are harassed and threatened in their own country. It is a strength when protesters, protected by responsible law enforcement, march for a better future. This tragedy — in a long series of similar tragedies — raises a long overdue question: How do we end systemic racism in our society? The only way to see ourselves in a true light is to listen to the voices of so many who are hurting and grieving. Those who set out to silence those voices do not understand the meaning of America — or how it becomes a better place.

America’s greatest challenge has long been to unite people of very different backgrounds into a single nation of justice and opportunity. The doctrine and habits of racial superiority, which once nearly split our country, still threaten our Union. The answers to American problems are found by living up to American ideals — to the fundamental truth that all human beings are created equal and endowed by God with certain rights. We have often underestimated how radical that quest really is, and how our cherished principles challenge systems of intended or assumed injustice. The heroes of America — from Frederick Douglass, to Harriet Tubman, to Abraham Lincoln, to Martin Luther King, Jr. — are heroes of unity. Their calling has never been for the fainthearted. They often revealed the nation’s disturbing bigotry and exploitation — stains on our character sometimes difficult for the American majority to examine. We can only see the reality of America's need by seeing it through the eyes of the threatened, oppressed, and disenfranchised.

That is exactly where we now stand. Many doubt the justice of our country, and with good reason. Black people see the repeated violation of their rights without an urgent and adequate response from American institutions. We know that lasting justice will only come by peaceful means. Looting is not liberation, and destruction is not progress. But we also know that lasting peace in our communities requires truly equal justice. The rule of law ultimately depends on the fairness and legitimacy of the legal system. And achieving justice for all is the duty of all.

This will require a consistent, courageous, and creative effort. We serve our neighbors best when we try to understand their experience. We love our neighbors as ourselves when we treat them as equals, in both protection and compassion. There is a better way — the way of empathy, and shared commitment, and bold action, and a peace rooted in justice. I am confident that together, Americans will choose the better way.

Counting down to Trump tweet in six...five...forty-three.

[Elegiac]

George W Bush speaks out.

Counting down to Trump tweet in six...five...forty-three.

That feel when you miss the days of having an actual war criminal in office because at least he wasn't this baaaaaaaaaa oh god I think I actually might have died inside.

[cubby]

2) If the name 43 Alumni For Biden sounds suspicious, it should. It's a Super PAC formed by, well, "alums of 43" as in the 43rd President as in George W Bush.

Trump has been sequentially testing the limits of his supporters -- costing their jobs, costing their freedom, costing their money, and now shitting on their religion. I wonder how many of them are quietly eyeing the door. Trump is down by 4 to 10 vs Biden in recent polls, and Biden's barely said anything.

If Bush 43 comes out supporting Biden, it might be popcorn time. It would certainly be a start of a civil war within the GOP. I was NEVER a fan of Bush2 until after he was out of office. But his exit was regal (with Obama being gracious), under the circumstances, and when he's been vocal since, it has been with words that I agree with.

[PhaelixWW]

President Biden will be at George Floyd's funeral.

I honestly can't tell -- did you mean to say "President Biden" here?

[Funtringas]

If Bush 43 comes out supporting Biden, it might be popcorn time. It would certainly be a start of a civil war within the GOP. I was NEVER a fan of Bush2 until after he was out of office. But his exit was regal (with Obama being gracious), under the circumstances, and when he's been vocal since, it has been with words that I agree with.

This is why I don't trust you people. 12 years ago you were out for Bush's blood. Now he's your best friend. A fucking crazy evangelical lunatic who killed hundreds of thousands of people to enrich his oil buddies. No wonder everyone thinks you are unprincipled, mendacious opportunists that believe in nothing.

[cubby]

That's what I've been saying, mostly at least. The fact is, the GOP knows full well they can't turn on Trump, they'll lose his base and therefore the election. It's the same reason why they attached themselves to the Religious Right and the gun nuts -- two groups that don't otherwise fit the Republican platform. They would lose elections otherwise. Since they can't win without the, well, racist sexist hatemongers that Trump calls very fine people up until they murder someone in broad daylight, they only chance they have left is a miracle -- Trump somehow winning, despite his record.

Even thought it's a tactical choice, they still deserve to be shown for the moral and ethical failures for doing so.

- - - Updated - - -

George W Bush speaks out.

Laura and I are anguished by the brutal suffocation of George Floyd and disturbed by the injustice and fear that suffocate our country. Yet we have resisted the urge to speak out, because this is not the time for us to lecture. It is time for us to listen. It is time for America to examine our tragic failures – and as we do, we will also see some of our redeeming strengths.

It remains a shocking failure that many African Americans, especially young African American men, are harassed and threatened in their own country. It is a strength when protesters, protected by responsible law enforcement, march for a better future. This tragedy — in a long series of similar tragedies — raises a long overdue question: How do we end systemic racism in our society? The only way to see ourselves in a true light is to listen to the voices of so many who are hurting and grieving. Those who set out to silence those voices do not understand the meaning of America — or how it becomes a better place.

America’s greatest challenge has long been to unite people of very different backgrounds into a single nation of justice and opportunity. The doctrine and habits of racial superiority, which once nearly split our country, still threaten our Union. The answers to American problems are found by living up to American ideals — to the fundamental truth that all human beings are created equal and endowed by God with certain rights. We have often underestimated how radical that quest really is, and how our cherished principles challenge systems of intended or assumed injustice. The heroes of America — from Frederick Douglass, to Harriet Tubman, to Abraham Lincoln, to Martin Luther King, Jr. — are heroes of unity. Their calling has never been for the fainthearted. They often revealed the nation’s disturbing bigotry and exploitation — stains on our character sometimes difficult for the American majority to examine. We can only see the reality of America's need by seeing it through the eyes of the threatened, oppressed, and disenfranchised.

That is exactly where we now stand. Many doubt the justice of our country, and with good reason. Black people see the repeated violation of their rights without an urgent and adequate response from American institutions. We know that lasting justice will only come by peaceful means. Looting is not liberation, and destruction is not progress. But we also know that lasting peace in our communities requires truly equal justice. The rule of law ultimately depends on the fairness and legitimacy of the legal system. And achieving justice for all is the duty of all.

This will require a consistent, courageous, and creative effort. We serve our neighbors best when we try to understand their experience. We love our neighbors as ourselves when we treat them as equals, in both protection and compassion. There is a better way — the way of empathy, and shared commitment, and bold action, and a peace rooted in justice. I am confident that together, Americans will choose the better way.

Counting down to Trump tweet in six...five...forty-three.

Amazing statement. Well phrased, the right words - and at a critical time. A couple of sentences there seem to be laying the groundwork for coming out for Biden. I could be reading into it course - fuck, I'm certainly reading into it. But in these dark times, hope is where you can find it.

[Elegiac]

This is why I don't trust you people. 12 years ago you were out for Bush's blood. Now he's your best friend. A fucking crazy evangelical lunatic who killed hundreds of thousands of people to enrich his oil buddies. No wonder everyone thinks you are unprincipled, mendacious opportunists that believe in nothing.

Okay burner.

That feel when you miss the days of having an actual war criminal in office because at least he wasn't this baaaaaaaaaa oh god I think I actually might have died inside.

[cubby]

This is why I don't trust you people. 12 years ago you were out for Bush's blood. Now he's your best friend. A fucking crazy evangelical lunatic who killed hundreds of thousands of people to enrich his oil buddies. No wonder everyone thinks you are unprincipled, mendacious opportunists that believe in nothing.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

(on a side note - fucking amazing job at creating multiple burner accounts)

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That feel when you miss the days of having an actual war criminal in office because at least he wasn't this baaaaaaaaaa oh god I think I actually might have died inside.

W even came out last year and practically said "at least I wasn't this bad". And it's true. It would be hard to fathom someone who could win a US election and be this bad. But of course Deplorable-in-Chief is just a symptom of the real rot in this country. If people didn't support Trump...well, he wouldn't be supported. And we're talking about 35-45% of the country who still "favors" him.

(although I'm sure Cheney is griping around his compound dreaming of the shit he could have gotten away with)

[Funtringas]

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

So in four years Trump is going to be your hero when you bash the next Republican leader?

Do you believe in anything at all?