That's assuming that crit is off total hits rather than total casts. Both are possible. The "supercrits" explicitly only happen on crits, on the other hand. Primione's calculations are clearly based on a model where crit percentage is based of total events, not hits, so your calculations are actually even worse. In reality, it's only the miss chance that is to high, which is easily resolved by only generating values in the 0-99 range.