Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[ranwort]

Do you know how statistics work?
Becuase if you know that, you would place much more weight on the polls than on a fucking betting site.

Yes, I do know how statistics work.

Virtually everybody with intelligence rates betting markets as better predictive models because a) they incorporate future as well as current information and b) your money is on the line, it is not just some asshole mouthing off.

[Zan15]

I'd take polling with a great deal of skepticism.
Especially in light of the fading voter registrations.

If I recall only a few people called it here correctly back in 2016 when everyone else believed Clinton would win handily.
And the polls...were just as wrong.

I've asked this about 21 times to different people, but please maybe you can show me which polls were wrong??

[cubby]

I've asked this about 21 times to different people, but please maybe you can show me which polls were wrong??

Exactly. The irony is that polls are never wrong - or, more appropriately, they are always wrong because they never guarantee accuracy.

[Omega10]

Could someone fact check for me please???

https://www.yahoo.com/news/lindsey-g...155403577.html

Title: Lindsey Graham praises Joe Biden and calls Donald Trump a 'race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot' in new ad

Excerpts:

Before he was one of the president’s closest allies, Lindsey Graham (R—SC) was an outspoken critic of Donald Trump — and some members of the Republican Party want voters to remember that come Election Day.

Ok so far nothing out of the ordinary.

A new ad from the group Republican Voters Against Trump features the conservative senator dissing the president along the campaign trail in 2016, as well as discussing his admiration for former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Really???

It starts with Mr Graham saying “I want to talk to the Trump supporters for a minute”, before he asks: “What is Donald Trump’s campaign about?”

“He’s a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot,” the senator says. “You know how you make America great again? Tell Donald Trump to go to hell.”

NOT WHAT I WAS EXPECTING AT ALL.

And finally a nice finish:

Mr Graham goes on to say Mr Biden is “as good a man as God ever created” and “is the nicest person I think I ever met in politics”.

The ad concludes with a statement from Mr Graham in 2015, in which he told CNN: “This is a defining moment in the future of the Republican Party.”

He adds: “We have to reject this demagoguery, and if we don’t reject Donald Trump, we’ve lost the moral authority … to govern this great nation.”

- - - Updated - - -


EDIT: I watched the ad. It is the single most pro-Biden commentary I have seen or read all year. By far. The switching back and forth between TRUMP IS EVIL and BIDEN IS GOOD is quite powerful.

[cubby]

Could someone fact check for me please???

https://www.yahoo.com/news/lindsey-g...155403577.html

Title: Lindsey Graham praises Joe Biden and calls Donald Trump a 'race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot' in new ad

Excerpts:

Before he was one of the president’s closest allies, Lindsey Graham (R—SC) was an outspoken critic of Donald Trump — and some members of the Republican Party want voters to remember that come Election Day.

Ok so far nothing out of the ordinary.

A new ad from the group Republican Voters Against Trump features the conservative senator dissing the president along the campaign trail in 2016, as well as discussing his admiration for former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Really???

It starts with Mr Graham saying “I want to talk to the Trump supporters for a minute”, before he asks: “What is Donald Trump’s campaign about?”

“He’s a race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot,” the senator says. “You know how you make America great again? Tell Donald Trump to go to hell.”

NOT WHAT I WAS EXPECTING AT ALL.

And finally a nice finish:

Mr Graham goes on to say Mr Biden is “as good a man as God ever created” and “is the nicest person I think I ever met in politics”.

The ad concludes with a statement from Mr Graham in 2015, in which he told CNN: “This is a defining moment in the future of the Republican Party.”

He adds: “We have to reject this demagoguery, and if we don’t reject Donald Trump, we’ve lost the moral authority … to govern this great nation.”

EDIT: I watched the ad. It is the single most pro-Biden commentary I have seen or read all year. By far. The switching back and forth between TRUMP IS EVIL and BIDEN IS GOOD is quite powerful.

I've seen that as well - was blown away at first, did what you did (what the holy fucking hell...) and then saw it was exerpts from previous Graham statements, all legitimate as far as I can tell. And this is all still from the Repub's against Cheeto folks. The DNC hasn't even started their ad campaign. Wondering if they are seeing how far the cannibalization of the GOP will go before they wade into the fray....

Side note: it's been mentioned several times, in many ways, that Trump has "the dirt" on a number of senior GOP members. Graham being one of the top peeps who is essentially being blackmailed. @Breccia hygiene has been much improved lately with the uptick in showers...

[Machismo]

Could someone fact check for me please???

https://www.yahoo.com/news/lindsey-g...155403577.html

Title: Lindsey Graham praises Joe Biden and calls Donald Trump a 'race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot' in new ad

Excerpts:



Ok so far nothing out of the ordinary.



Really???



NOT WHAT I WAS EXPECTING AT ALL.

And finally a nice finish:



- - - Updated - - -


EDIT: I watched the ad. It is the single most pro-Biden commentary I have seen or read all year. By far. The switching back and forth between TRUMP IS EVIL and BIDEN IS GOOD is quite powerful.

It's a damn good campaign video. Honestly, how are Republicans going to argue against what they all know to actually be true?

The emperor has no clothes.

[Zan15]

Exactly. The irony is that polls are never wrong - or, more appropriately, they are always wrong because they never guarantee accuracy.

There was only one national poll that was wrong and that was the one that predicted trump would win the popular vote.
Every other one was actually quite accurate vs past polls.

Of course we know that the popular vote and the fact every vote does in fact not count....its only a few minor states that matter while the actual parts of the country that support the rest get fucked.

would be fine if the EC was actually representative of the actual population, but because of caps....my vote means shit

- - - Updated - - -

Side note: it's been mentioned several times, in many ways, that Trump has "the dirt" on a number of senior GOP members. Graham being one of the top peeps who is essentially being blackmailed. @Breccia hygiene has been much improved lately with the uptick in showers...

with how far Graham is in the closet, I can't wait for the books to come out after he is gone from office or dead.

and I thought I've seen the worst sell outs in Newt G. Graham makes him look like a minor leaguer

[Edge-]

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/l...ina-protesters



Virginia Republican State Rep, hitting the "I'm a racist piece of garbage", "I'm a conspiracy theorist piece of shit", and "I'm an antisemetic bigot" all in a single post.

Oh yeah, and he compared Lincoln to Hitler previously. He was right to say that the Civil War wasn't Constitutional, but he's placing blame for the start of the war on the wrong side. He apologized for that -

He later issued a very dubious walk-back. “While both Lincoln and Hitler were obviously bad guys, what Hitler did was worse and I apologize if people thought I was putting them in the same league.”

Seems like we've still got our fair share of Confederate traitors to the USA milling about.

Elections matter, and getting garbage tier human beings like this out of office matters.

[Omega10]

He later issued a very dubious walk-back. “While both Lincoln and Hitler were obviously bad guys, what Hitler did was worse and I apologize if people thought I was putting them in the same league.”

Wow. This guy IS a confederate traitor.

[Stormspellz]

I'd take polling with a great deal of skepticism.
Especially in light of the fading voter registrations.

If I recall only a few people called it here correctly back in 2016 when everyone else believed Clinton would win handily.
And the polls...were just as wrong.

but they weren't really wrong, day before election most major polls had clinton's lead with in margin of error and she did win the popular vote.

[Shadowferal]

I've asked this about 21 times to different people, but please maybe you can show me which polls were wrong??

Why 2016 election polls missed their mark
--------
A 2016 Review: Why Key State Polls Were Wrong About Trump
------
A group of major pollsters just released an autopsy report to explain why the polls were such a disaster in 2016
-----
Everybody was wrong. Again.
-----
Here’s Every Major Poll That Got Donald Trump’s Election Win Wrong

L.A. Times
Clinton 352, Trump 186

Moody’s Analytics
Clinton 332, Trump 206

Rothenberg & Gonzales
Clinton 323, Trump 197

Sabato
Clinton 322, Trump 216

Princeton
Clinton 228, Trump 164

FiveThirtyEight
Clinton 302, Trump 235

Fox News
Clinton 274, Trump 215

Associated Press
Clinton 274, Trump 190

New York Times
Clinton 85 percent chance of winning

Hypermind: Clinton 74 percent chance of winning

PredictWise: Clinton 89 percent chance of winning

Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation: Clinton 90 percent chance of winning

ABC News Political Analyst Matthew Dowd: Clinton 95 percent chance of winning

Here’s how other polls called the popular vote on Monday, according to Real Clear Politics.

Bloomberg: Clinton +3

CBS News: Clinton +4

Fox News: Clinton +4

Reuters: Clinton +3

ABC/Washington Post: Clinton +4

Monmouth: Clinton +6

Economist/YouGov: Clinton +4

One poll consistently had an accurate snapshot of the electorate — the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll — but it was mocked by most political pundits and cable news talking heads as an outlier. The poll had given Donald Trump a significant chance to win over the past four months.

------
Sorry if I went overboard.

[kreationkin]

------
Sorry if I went overboard.

You're getting caught up in a semantics debate. The polls were not wrong. As long as they were done without deceit they were an accurate poll of the people polled. The predictions made by people looking at those polls were wrong. Pundits were wrong. When fivethirtyeight says based on the polling data they predict a 25% chance A will happen and a 75% chance B will happen, either event happening doesn't make them wrong. That doesn't mean they're useless, and your point that people shouldn't take it for granted that because Biden leads in polls that he will win is salient. Don't get bogged down in the semantics.

[Shadowferal]

You're getting caught up in a semantics debate.

Don't get bogged down in the semantics.

Ya don't say?

[Antiganon]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...ss-loan-320625



This is why elections matter. Republicans are doing everything they can to make this as opaque as possible and prevent taxpayers from knowing what businesses their money is going towards. Democrats, even though some may be recipient, are at least pushing for transparency on this so that people can know if their Reps/Senators are benefitting from their own legislation like this.

I don't necessarily have an issue with an elected official getting a PPP loan or similar. Presumably their businesses were hit by the pandemic in a similar fashion to others, and working at a business owned by an elected official doesn't make you any less worthy of having your paycheck protected than anyone else.

I do think elected officials need to be 100% transparent and aboveboard here.

PPP loans aren't intended for SMBs to just get a bunch of money to use on whatever at a favorable rate. The express purpose is to retain staff, with the loans being canceled and immediately due if they are fraudulently used for general business expenses, if payrolls are cut despite receiving the loan, or to line the owner's pockets.

[Edge-]

I do think elected officials need to be 100% transparent and aboveboard here.

Yep, purely this. I have no opposition to them receiving loans if their families if they have affected businesses. Transparency should be automatic, and we shouldn't have to fight over this.

[Zan15]

Why 2016 election polls missed their mark
--------
A 2016 Review: Why Key State Polls Were Wrong About Trump
------
A group of major pollsters just released an autopsy report to explain why the polls were such a disaster in 2016
-----
Everybody was wrong. Again.
-----
Here’s Every Major Poll That Got Donald Trump’s Election Win Wrong

L.A. Times
Clinton 352, Trump 186

Moody’s Analytics
Clinton 332, Trump 206

Rothenberg & Gonzales
Clinton 323, Trump 197

Sabato
Clinton 322, Trump 216

Princeton
Clinton 228, Trump 164

FiveThirtyEight
Clinton 302, Trump 235

Fox News
Clinton 274, Trump 215

Associated Press
Clinton 274, Trump 190

New York Times
Clinton 85 percent chance of winning

Hypermind: Clinton 74 percent chance of winning

PredictWise: Clinton 89 percent chance of winning

Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation: Clinton 90 percent chance of winning

ABC News Political Analyst Matthew Dowd: Clinton 95 percent chance of winning

Here’s how other polls called the popular vote on Monday, according to Real Clear Politics.

Bloomberg: Clinton +3

CBS News: Clinton +4

Fox News: Clinton +4

Reuters: Clinton +3

ABC/Washington Post: Clinton +4

Monmouth: Clinton +6

Economist/YouGov: Clinton +4

One poll consistently had an accurate snapshot of the electorate — the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll — but it was mocked by most political pundits and cable news talking heads as an outlier. The poll had given Donald Trump a significant chance to win over the past four months.

------
Sorry if I went overboard.

Maybe you don't know what the word poll means? What the polls track?

You listed all the "calls" on the EC, those are not polls.

You listed all the final calls on popular vote for which every single one of them was right, Clinton won the popular vote. Also most of them were within their margin of error as well. So where is the "wrong" part?


the one poll you said was "right", USC had trump 46.8% v 43.6% which is wrong by over 5% points since clinton won by a little over 2%.

You list all the % chances of winning. Guess what every single one of them were right. they had Trump possibly winning the election. That means the polls were right.

Maybe its not polls, its the word "right" you don't understand? When someone says 95% there is still a 5% chance trump can win...and he won. So they were not wrong. do you realize how small the margin was in the EC for Trumpo and why the 5% was spot on...?

[PACOX]

It's a damn good campaign video. Honestly, how are Republicans going to argue against what they all know to actually be true?

The emperor has no clothes.

Are we in 2015? They don't care. Nothing Trump has said or done has been out of character and they still support him. If he gained a shred of decency then they might abandon him.

Its not enough to say that Trump is a bad guy. Everyone knows that. He is a liar, a cheater, sell serving snake. You have to demonstrate why his actions are harmful to you and things you care about as a voter.

Ask any Trump supporter why they stick with him. Man will say he is an asshole. How many people had a friend/family member who was an asshole to others but not to you or you still got something out of it?

Trump gives his base what they want and they couldn't care less about anything else. Be it a tax cut, a judge, supporting their bigotry and just fucking up DC and the entertainment.

How many Ls do people have to take before they stop trying make to appeal to option that's more morally sound?

[Machismo]

Are we in 2015? They don't care. Nothing Trump has said or done has been out of character and they still support him. If he gained a shred of decency then they might abandon him.

Its not enough to say that Trump is a bad guy. Everyone knows that. He is a liar, a cheater, sell serving snake. You have to demonstrate why his actions are harmful to you and things you care about as a voter.

Ask any Trump supporter why they stick with him. Man will say he is an asshole. How many people had a friend/family member who was an asshole to others but not to you or you still got something out of it?

Trump gives his base what they want and they couldn't care less about anything else. Be it a tax cut, a judge, supporting their bigotry and just fucking up DC and the entertainment.

How many Ls do people have to take before they stop trying make to appeal to option that's more morally sound?

Of course they don't care. Trump's supporters don't give a shit, and they never will. They didn't care about the sexual assault. They didn't care about the racism. they didn't care about the personal attacks. they didn't care about everything else.

They will not care about this, because Trump could rape a child on live television, and they'd still support him.

This isn't about them, because the only true way to deal with people like that, is to cut them out of your life, boycott their businesses, and shun the crap out of them. Turn them into social pariahs, and never let them live it down.

I treat Trumpsters the same as all the people who have died in my life, or those whose paths have greatly diverged through time. They're gone, and they are not coming back.

[PACOX]

Of course they don't care. Trump's supporters don't give a shit, and they never will. They didn't care about the sexual assault. They didn't care about the racism. they didn't care about the personal attacks. they didn't care about everything else.

They will not care about this, because Trump could rape a child on live television, and they'd still support him.

This isn't about them, because the only true way to deal with people like that, is to cut them out of your life, boycott their businesses, and shun the crap out of them. Turn them into social pariahs, and never let them live it down.

I treat Trumpsters the same as all the people who have died in my life, or those whose paths have greatly diverged through time. They're gone, and they are not coming back.

Exactly so why are we sitting here celebrating low effort ads that changes no ones opinions on either candidate?

Where will the votes come from no one can be convinced to change their 2016 vote?

[Machismo]

Exactly so why are we sitting here celebrating low effort ads that changes no ones opinions on either candidate?

Where will the votes come from no one can be convinced to change their 2016 vote?

Well, it may impact the moderates who still have a sense of shame.

Of course, I'm a libertarian, so I don't really have a dog in this fight. I'm simply enjoying the shitshow.

In the end, the only thing that matters, is people getting out to vote in massive numbers in November. And for the Democrats, that means voting for Biden. If their fellow Democrats don't want to vote for Biden, and are going to stay home, then treat them accordingly. Pandering to the fake Bernie supporters does nothing. Pandering to the real Bernie supporters isn't really any better.