North Korea has seemingly declared full war on South. How much of a threat are they?

[Grimbold21]

I mean, isn't the China/India border dispute a bigger concern?

[Breccia]

I mean, isn't the China/India border dispute a bigger concern?

It should be. I honestly have no idea what the US would do if they just started shooting right now. Sit back and watch?

[Thekri]

I mean, isn't the China/India border dispute a bigger concern?

Not really honestly. The China/India border dispute is just as old as the Korean problem, and just as likely to stay (relatively) peaceful. India and China have absolutely no interest in going to war with each other, but both governments benefit from looking tough. So this crops up every once in a while. It is actually pretty much the default border status in much of Asia. The border guards on both sides do not have guns, because neither side wants somebody to wind up getting shot, so they just chuck rocks at each other all day.

I spent some time on the Afghan/Pakistan border, and it was the same thing, only a fair bit more violent then what we are seeing on the Indian/Chinese border. Both sides have ridiculously huge territorial claims, most of the land is pretty empty, and everyone is very confused as to where the border is actually supposed to be in the first place. So when an Afghan Guard sees a Pakistani Guard, he chucks rocks at him until he goes away, and that determines where the border is at the moment. At actual checkpoints, it is basically a years long running rock fight, with clearly established rules (No throwing rocks when someone is taking a dump, that is a dick move).

The China/India thing recently in the news popped up because both countries benefited from a bit of saber rattling to distract from very real internal problems. Nothing motivates people quite like a good border skirmish. Nothing remotely threatening actually happened. Some people got punched, a few thousand troops got shuffled around, and some politicians made speeches.

[Gestopft]

Doesn’t North Korea have the approximate GDP of...Wyoming?

Doesn’t sound like much of a threat.

[TigTone]

Doesn’t North Korea have the approximate GDP of...Wyoming?

Doesn’t sound like much of a threat.

Don’t know about that but they do have many many many many many many short range missiles and are working on making long range missiles.

Also iirc they have bio weapons.

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Not really honestly. The China/India border dispute is just as old as the Korean problem, and just as likely to stay (relatively) peaceful. India and China have absolutely no interest in going to war with each other, but both governments benefit from looking tough. So this crops up every once in a while. It is actually pretty much the default border status in much of Asia. The border guards on both sides do not have guns, because neither side wants somebody to wind up getting shot, so they just chuck rocks at each other all day.

I spent some time on the Afghan/Pakistan border, and it was the same thing, only a fair bit more violent then what we are seeing on the Indian/Chinese border. Both sides have ridiculously huge territorial claims, most of the land is pretty empty, and everyone is very confused as to where the border is actually supposed to be in the first place. So when an Afghan Guard sees a Pakistani Guard, he chucks rocks at him until he goes away, and that determines where the border is at the moment. At actual checkpoints, it is basically a years long running rock fight, with clearly established rules (No throwing rocks when someone is taking a dump, that is a dick move).

The China/India thing recently in the news popped up because both countries benefited from a bit of saber rattling to distract from very real internal problems. Nothing motivates people quite like a good border skirmish. Nothing remotely threatening actually happened. Some people got punched, a few thousand troops got shuffled around, and some politicians made speeches.

There is now 20 dead on India side...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc...-asia-53061476

[Thekri]

There is now 20 dead on India side...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc...-asia-53061476

Welp, that is new. Let me just eat my words then, I had not seen that. I know the issue a few weeks ago was just thrown rocks, but that is definitely a different situation then right now. Clearly guns are now involved.

[TigTone]

Welp, that is new. Let me just eat my words then, I had not seen that. I know the issue a few weeks ago was just thrown rocks, but that is definitely a different situation then right now. Clearly guns are now involved.

Didn’t mean to “make you eat your words”, I just came across it like 15 mins ago myself.

To me it is concerning news but I’m no expert on India/China relations so I could be over reacting.

[Thekri]

Didn’t mean to “make you eat your words”, I just came across it like 15 mins ago myself.

To me it is concerning news but I’m no expert on India/China relations so I could be over reacting.

Nah, 20 dead people seems like a pretty big deal to me too. Definitely not the status quo, there are usually pretty significant consequences for that. Not making any predictions, I have no idea what is going to happen there. However my level of concern for the situation just jumped from zero to "Somewhat Alarmed".

[zealo]

Shots being exchanged etc near the korean DMZ is frequent occurrence. If the north intended to actually start a real war with the south, the amount of force they'd initiate that with would be way more than blowing up a single building on their own side of the border.

[Antiganon]

Correct me if I'm wrong:

My understanding is that NK has zero advanced weaponry or capability to fight an actual war against any prepared enemy. They may or may not have nukes, which may or may not work when fired.

However, what they do have is a massive shit ton of 1950s era conventional artillery, pointed at Seoul, with the capability to flatten Seoul entirely as a first strike. That would utterly decimate the SK economy and decapitate their military leadership. Sure, the US would utterly demolish NK in the aftermath, but that doesn't do anything for the ~10 million dead.

[YUPPIE]

Correct me if I'm wrong:

My understanding is that NK has zero advanced weaponry or capability to fight an actual war against any prepared enemy. They may or may not have nukes, which may or may not work when fired.

they have bioweapons, missiles, and an army based on cult of personality (i.e undying loyalty)

Also if the US attacks NK in retaliation, their allies intervene

[Breccia]

North Korea rejects South's offer of envoys, vows to redeploy troops to border

They sound serious, but that's how bluffs are supposed to work.

The announcements made by state media agency KCNA came a day after North Korea blew up a joint liaison office set up in a border town as part of a 2018 peace agreement between the two countries’ leaders.

Any moves to invalidate cross-border peace deals pose a major setback to South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in’s efforts to foster more lasting reconciliation with the North.

They could also complicate efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump, already grappling with the coronavirus pandemic and anti-racism protests, to persuade Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear and missile programmes.

On Monday, Moon offered to send his national security adviser Chung Eui-yong and spy chief Suh Hoon as special envoys, KCNA said. But Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and a senior ruling party official, “flatly rejected the tactless and sinister proposal”.

Man, we sure are hearing at lot about the sister, aren't we?

“The solution to the present crisis between the North and the South caused by the incompetence and irresponsibility of the South Korean authorities is impossible and it can be terminated only when proper price is paid,” KCNA said.

North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun, the ruling Workers’ Party’s official newspaper, published photos showing the liaison office before and after its demolition, alongside a series of KCNA articles and commentaries criticising South Korea.

“Ominous prelude to total catastrophe of North-South relations,” one of the articles was headlined, referring to the office’s destruction.

In a separate KCNA dispatch on Wednesday, a spokesman for the General Staff of the (North) Korean People’s Army (KPA) said it would dispatch troops to Mount Kumgang and Kaesong near the border, where the two Koreas had carried out joint economic projects in the past.

The KPA spokesman also said police posts that had been withdrawn from the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) will be reinstalled, while artillery units near the western sea border, where defectors frequently send propaganda leaflets, will be reinforced.

The North will also restart sending anti-Seoul leaflets across the border, he added.

Now that part, I believe. Throwing letters back over the fence.

The rest? NK hasn't been the center of attention for a while. I hope this is just their version of a tweet that says NOTICE ME!

[Gaidax]

Dawww, big baby Kim does his bi-yearly "notice me, senpai" act.

They will keep doing this shit until he, his sister, his politburo and his whole dynasty will get offed. And this moment can't come soon enough. I hope to live long enough to see him swing off the lamp-post for all he and his pals did.

My condolences to the people of NK who got stuck with this shit.

[Breccia]

Dawww, big baby Kim does his bi-yearly "notice me, senpai" act.

That's what I'm hoping too. Problem is, apparently it's genetic.

[Gaidax]

Also, it's no war. Last thing Kim wants is any sort of actual war. Probably he ran out of $$ for yachts and shit, so he's doing his and his dad's usual act of creating a faux escalation to get concessions.

[ipaq]

Empathy.

Project it as if those ~20 soldiers where of your country...

Still 20 too many because of the usual China aggression.

Nah, 20 dead people seems like a pretty big deal to me too. Definitely not the status quo, there are usually pretty significant consequences for that. Not making any predictions, I have no idea what is going to happen there. However my level of concern for the situation just jumped from zero to "Somewhat Alarmed".

[AeneasBK]

I spent some time on the Afghan/Pakistan border, and it was the same thing, only a fair bit more violent then what we are seeing on the Indian/Chinese border. Both sides have ridiculously huge territorial claims, most of the land is pretty empty, and everyone is very confused as to where the border is actually supposed to be in the first place. So when an Afghan Guard sees a Pakistani Guard, he chucks rocks at him until he goes away, and that determines where the border is at the moment. At actual checkpoints, it is basically a years long running rock fight, with clearly established rules (No throwing rocks when someone is taking a dump, that is a dick move).

You make it sound fun.

ED: Caught up with the rest of the thread, it wasn't meant to sound like a loaded comment, genuinely thought it sounded like "summer camp activities" by the way you described it - "Tag you're IT" kinda thing

[ranzino]

Man, we sure are hearing at lot about the sister, aren't we?

NK is family business, but Kim Jong Un's daughter is still to young to follow him. sis Kim Yo Jong is in waiting....

[Logwyn]

Doesn’t North Korea have the approximate GDP of...Wyoming?

Doesn’t sound like much of a threat.

GDP of North Korea hard to tell if accurate is about 17.3 million USD.
Vermont is the lowest US state at 34.9 million USD
Wyoming is at 39.6 million.

North Korea is hard to tell do to what is released out of their government. Maybe not a real threat to China, Russian, the United States, and the EU but to Japan and South Korea maybe if they were alone and no allies.

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It should be. I honestly have no idea what the US would do if they just started shooting right now. Sit back and watch?

Sell arms to both sides and then deny it for a decade then own up to it. Kinda what we've always done. Maybe throw the CIA in there for good measure to mess up whatever they are doing.

Maybe fly a couple of drones around blow up someone's backyard and their sheep, cows, or goats.

[zealo]

GDP of North Korea hard to tell if accurate is about 17.3 million USD.
Vermont is the lowest US state at 34.9 million USD
Wyoming is at 39.6 million.

North Korea is hard to tell do to what is released out of their government. Maybe not a real threat to China, Russian, the United States, and the EU but to Japan and South Korea maybe if they were alone and no allies.

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Sell arms to both sides and then deny it for a decade then own up to it. Kinda what we've always done. Maybe throw the CIA in there for good measure to mess up whatever they are doing.

Maybe fly a couple of drones around blow up someone's backyard and their sheep, cows, or goats.

Real numbers are hard to come by given how much of an isolated pariah North Korea is and their state releases being unreliable, but their national GDP has been estimated by intelligence agencies to be in the range of about 30-40 billion USD.