1. #16161
    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    There are people who struggle to breathe behind a mask. That's, not most people, and those people benefit heavily from everyone else wearing masks like someone who is allergic to a vaccine being among people who can get a vaccine.

    I wear my mask in 1-1.5 hour stretches at work before I get a chance to take it off for a little bit. It did take a few days to get used to. But if breathing with a mask is a pain, breathing with CV19 is worse.
    I hear that. There's a guy I work with who takes care of a 20-year-old autistic son, and has for 20 years, and he's adamant about wearing a mask. I respect the devotion to keeping people safe. He mentioned to me that if he gets Covid, he's dead (health issues), so I respect it. I respect him and I respect his position. It is literally a life and death issue for some people that I don't have to suffer. So I hear them, and I hear you. Absolutely.

  2. #16162
    Over 9000! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mayhem View Post
    Were the 99%+ accuracy tests the ones used back in mid-April?
    From the New York study:
    SARS-CoV IgG testing was conducted using a microsphere immunoassay (MIA) developed and validated for DBS by the NYSDOH Wadsworth Center.
    The FDA EUA Performance listing shows the Wadsworth test at 88.0% specificity and 98.8% sensitivity. That gives it a PPV (Positive Predictive Value) of 79.4 at a prevalence of 5%.

    At 20% prevalence, that's a PPV of ~95%.

    Furthermore, the study adjusted for those values:
    In the second step, weighted reactivity estimates and their 95%CI bounds were corrected for test sensitivity and specificity, based on validation data, to yield cumulative incidence, per Bayes’ Rule as applied to the diagnostic 2x2 table. Primary analyses used the sensitivity and specificity point-estimates from the validation studies, with sensitivity analyses at the extremes of test characteristics’ 95% CI([96.1% specificity, 92.1% sensitivity], [100% specificity, 83.7% sensitivity]).
    Last edited by PhaelixWW; 2020-06-20 at 07:48 AM.


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  3. #16163
    The Unstoppable Force Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PACOX View Post
    Can someone who doesn't wear a masks please explain the logic behind it?
    Simple: I have 70% lung capacity with Asthma medication.
    On top of that, allergies make breathing difficult in the summer.

    Wearing a mask is simply not feasible for me, I've tried.
    Thankfully, our lawmakers know that and make it legal for people like me to not wear masks.

  4. #16164
    Herald of the Titans Tuor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by breadisfunny View Post
    brazil just passed 1,000,000 cases. the real question here is which country will be the first 3,000,000? u.s. has a good strong lead but brazil is coming up fast.
    You can't compare, no one knows the real dimention of the infection in Brazil. And i can give an example, the rate of positive tests in Brazil is 50%, this means, in every 2 tests, in average, you get 1 positive and one negative. But the detection rate in the US is actually much lower, only around 6%, this means you get 6 positive cases per every 100 tests done.

    If Brazil boosts the number of tests, which they seem to be doing, the number of positive cases will be even higher then it is now, even that the percentage of positive cases after testing came down.

  5. #16165
    Quote Originally Posted by Tuor View Post
    You can't compare, no one knows the real dimention of the infection in Brazil. And i can give an example, the rate of positive tests in Brazil is 50%, this means, in every 2 tests, in average, you get 1 positive and one negative. But the detection rate in the US is actually much lower, only around 6%, this means you get 6 positive cases per every 100 tests done.

    If Brazil boosts the number of tests, which they seem to be doing, the number of positive cases will be even higher then it is now, even that the percentage of positive cases after testing came down.
    No one knows the real dimension of infections in the US either it is still pretty hard to get tested in the US in a lot of red states near impossible unless you are willing to pay up the nose to a private lab.

  6. #16166
    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    No one knows the real dimension of infections in the US either it is still pretty hard to get tested in the US in a lot of red states near impossible unless you are willing to pay up the nose to a private lab.
    True, but it seems likely that the US will get to 3 million first.

    If the numbers of new confirmed cases in the US stay constant it will take about a month - and the current trends seem to indicate a slight increase, and it seems unlikely that there will be new lockdowns.
    Those numbers are slowly increasing in Brazil - if that upwards trend continues it will take closer to 2 months. Getting Brazil to change and implement a different policy with more testing it in the next month to increase testing seems unlikely under the current president.
    India is likely to be third country passing that mark perhaps in 3 month, but how soon will depend on what happens now after the lockdowns are eased.

  7. #16167
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dacien View Post
    The only thing I would like to say (since there really is no other public forum I can voice this in with much reach), is that I hear quite often, "It is not a big deal to wear a mask, it's a small thing, just wear it." And that's true on the surface. But I cannot breathe normally wearing one; even a balaclava doesn't help much. And I have begun working 12 hour days (which will continue all next week) in the sun, pulling wire and running around on scaffolding at an energy reliability center (I am an electrician by trade), and they require face masks since California has mandated them.

    And they're on it! They have people walking around making sure they are worn. I have to routinely pull my mask down to breathe normally for a minute before putting the mask back on. And I'm almost certain I am not alone, since I've seen articles about people with respiratory challenges facing an uphill battle trying to breathe with them on.

    So, I just want to put it out there that it is not exactly a simple thing for some people, that it's an actual difficulty, and that I hope we can come to a time when it is not required. I worry that people might come to say, "It is good that we wear masks for any occasion, since it reduces death or possibility of germs that can cause death, whether there is a pandemic or not." I'd like to see us return to a time when wearing masks all the time is not only not required, but not expected. That's my two cents.
    It’s easier than trying to breathe with lungs full of fluid and a plastic tube down your trachea.

    And yes, mask wearing should be normalized when people are sick just like in some Asian countries. That doesn’t lead to some sort of nonsense slippery slope.
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  8. #16168
    Not a requirement to wear a mask outside in NJ
    Just as well since no one would.

  9. #16169
    Quote Originally Posted by Granyala View Post
    Simple: I have 70% lung capacity with Asthma medication.
    On top of that, allergies make breathing difficult in the summer.

    Wearing a mask is simply not feasible for me, I've tried.
    Thankfully, our lawmakers know that and make it legal for people like me to not wear masks.

    two questions, what kind of mask can't you breath in (because I too have the same condition range and manage to do physical work and wear a mask).

    and

    why then are you even going places if you can't protect yourself and put other people at risk? You can't find other ways to get things done?
    Buh Byeeeeeeeeeeee !!

  10. #16170
    The Unstoppable Force Granyala's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zan15 View Post
    why then are you even going places if you can't protect yourself and put other people at risk?
    I tried a simply home made cloth mask. FFP masks are worse.
    I only leave the house in order to go to work, sadly not everything can be done via homeoffice.

    Not really a danger where I live though, we had 14 Corona cases in the last week (population 3M).
    As long as numbers stay that low I feel the risk is minimal. If they rise again I will contact my doc again to get freed from work.

  11. #16171
    Merely a Setback breadisfunny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tuor View Post
    You can't compare, no one knows the real dimention of the infection in Brazil. And i can give an example, the rate of positive tests in Brazil is 50%, this means, in every 2 tests, in average, you get 1 positive and one negative. But the detection rate in the US is actually much lower, only around 6%, this means you get 6 positive cases per every 100 tests done.

    If Brazil boosts the number of tests, which they seem to be doing, the number of positive cases will be even higher then it is now, even that the percentage of positive cases after testing came down.
    this seems to be an awfully defensive comment to a speculative comment i made that didn't even mention any specific details. just made a set of observations and left it at that.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowferal View Post
    Not a requirement to wear a mask outside in NJ
    Just as well since no one would.
    and being in the top 3 of cases total dead, total cases/deaths per 1mil pop, active cases, it sure shows.
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  12. #16172
    4000 new cases in FL today.

    DeSantis blames the brown people.

  13. #16173
    LoL at US.
    They thought they can win with 33,539 new cases yesterday.
    Brazil beats it with 55,209 new cases!

  14. #16174
    Herald of the Titans TigTone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xenogear3 View Post
    LoL at US.
    They thought they can win with 33,539 new cases yesterday.
    Brazil beats it with 55,209 new cases!
    The amount of people that refuse to wear masks is unreal.

    If this disease was deadlier than it is now, I still think people would be stupid and not wear masks.

    So many avoidable deaths. If there is a after life I’m damn sure this will lack of uncaring will be noticed.

  15. #16175
    The Undying Breccia's Avatar
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    Posted without much comment.

    Players association advises against group workouts after surge in COVID-19 cases

    NFL players should avoid engaging in group workouts as COVID-19 cases are rising again in the United States, the medical director of the sport’s players association said on Saturday.

    Major League Soccer (MLS), National Football League (NFL), National Hockey League (NHL) and Major League Baseball (MLB) all confirmed positive tests in a single 24-hours period Friday.

    “It is our consensus medical opinion that in light of the increase in COVID-19 cases in certain states that no players should be engaged in practicing together in private workouts,” NFLPA Medical Director Thom Mayer said in a statement.

    “It is in the best interest of all players that we advise against any voluntary joint practices before training camp commences.”

    The NFL did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
    I can't think of a situation more conductive to virus transmission than contact team sports. And I don't think there are appropriate masks that work when you're exerting that hard. When even baseball is having trouble, American football is doomed if they continue meeting routinely before the rates drop.

    I don't want to see the NFL season cancelled, but I also don't want them to start, stumble, and stop for longer -- or worse yet, transmit the virus from city to city via teams with a staff of dozens even beyond the athletes. At some point, it's time to literally take one for the team and think about the good of the sport in general.

  16. #16176
    Quote Originally Posted by xenogear3 View Post
    LoL at US.
    They thought they can win with 33,539 new cases yesterday.
    Brazil beats it with 55,209 new cases!
    Give it a few weeks, the US is bringing their A game with Florida and Texas.

  17. #16177
    The Unstoppable Force Puupi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xenogear3 View Post
    LoL at US.
    They thought they can win with 33,539 new cases yesterday.
    Brazil beats it with 55,209 new cases!
    I read some article last night that claimed that Brazil has at minimum triple and up to tenfold the amount of infected aka 3-10million instead of 1 million.
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  18. #16178
    Quote Originally Posted by Puupi View Post
    I read some article last night that claimed that Brazil has at minimum triple and up to tenfold the amount of infected aka 3-10million instead of 1 million.
    I doubt that it is correct - I think it could be more than tenfold more infected than confirmed cases, and I wouldn't be surprised it was a factor of 15 or so.

    However, the entire situation in Brazil is unclear; the number of deaths seemed to be underestimated early on and that could indicate even worse problems.

  19. #16179
    Merely a Setback PACOX's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by unfilteredJW View Post
    4000 new cases in FL today.

    DeSantis blames the brown people.
    Number is only going to go up. Tons of people were out on the weekend.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by bmjclark View Post
    Give it a few weeks, the US is bringing their A game with Florida and Texas.
    We also have the numbers from Tulsa coming within a few days. Remember the US mostly just reports on Wed so the race is still on.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Posted without much comment.

    Players association advises against group workouts after surge in COVID-19 cases



    I can't think of a situation more conductive to virus transmission than contact team sports. And I don't think there are appropriate masks that work when you're exerting that hard. When even baseball is having trouble, American football is doomed if they continue meeting routinely before the rates drop.

    I don't want to see the NFL season cancelled, but I also don't want them to start, stumble, and stop for longer -- or worse yet, transmit the virus from city to city via teams with a staff of dozens even beyond the athletes. At some point, it's time to literally take one for the team and think about the good of the sport in general.
    Data is showing that the virus doesn't spread well from contact with contaminated surfaces even if it can be detected on the surface days laters IF a catalyst isn't present. Bodily fluids be one of those catalysts. People breathing hot moist air. Touching their face then the equipment, then someone touching equipment than their face. CV19 loves it.

    I think the NFL is waiting for the NBA to get it together, but the NBA can't figure it out. CFB already failed. Reality is that you can't expect involved in the sports to remain in their 'bubble'. Its too many people with too many lives to support outside of the bubble.

    No one likes going through this. But temporary inconveniences will pay off in the long run.

    Data coming out suggests that CV19 antibodies only last three or so months. So even if CV19 runs through teams now, they'll likely catch it again before playoffs. The plan should be to heavily look into safe solutions but postponing the seasons as the default. No point in hurting the league long term trying to beat 2020 in the short term.

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  20. #16180
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    Posted without much comment.

    Players association advises against group workouts after surge in COVID-19 cases



    I can't think of a situation more conductive to virus transmission than contact team sports.
    Based on the history of this pandemic there seems to be some: singing or chanting in choirs, sharing things between mouths (like beer pong, sharing whistles).

    However, that doesn't mean that contact team sports are safe even if outdoors.

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