Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Aurgjelme]

Norway isn't remotely a right wing government compared to the US or Brazil, and certainly isn't authoritarian. Governments run by extremists is the real issue. Extremists tend to be more passionate and thus less rational, and in a crisis rationality wins.

I will concede that Sweden is run by extremists

[bmjclark]

So, anyone want to take bets on when Texas caves and locks down again?

[Themius]

I will concede that Sweden is run by extremists

In which way?

[PACOX]

So, anyone want to take bets on when Texas caves and locks down again?

Florida is heading that way in some parts. Basically how it was before with county/city councils doing their best. Some state agencies issued March like lockdown/policies two weeks ago when numbers started to trickle up.

[Cynep]

Serology tests done in NYC in mid-April indicated a positive rate over 21%. Confirmed cases are nowhere near total infected.



Because somewhere before 20-40% infected (which is what a 3% confirmed cases rate is likely to translate to in actual cases) occurs, people decided to take those measures seriously enough to lower the R value below 1 in those areas.

But there's nothing that forces it to be that way other than changes in human activity.

What possible justification can you propose for why 3% confirmed would be a "soft cap"?

I have no theoretical basis for my claim, just empirical observations, a rule of thumb if you will - and it remains true so far. You may be right about reasons why it happens, I merely said when it happens. Confirmed cases is an unreliable statistic, but it's universally used and best we have.

Sorry for the delayed reply BTW, went away for a mini-vacation. No one here takes Covid seriously anymore, even though we still have 20-30 daily new cases. I still try to keep social distancing when possible, but only maybe 10% women wear masks on the streets, and men don't at all, not even on the chin. I think it's because we're in Russian media sphere, and Russia has the Putin referendum in a week, so they toned the propaganda down a bit. Unlike the West they didn't do that for Floyd protests back then; barely anyone here knows what those are.

[PACOX]

Some parts? They have an average of 25% of their ICU beds available statewide. They need to act now, but their Governor is a moron.

Unfortunatley they let it (again) get to a point where the fire is too hot. Best you can do is keep it from flaring or spreading to neighboring buildings. Tallahassee has a mandatory mask policy and the governor won't even restrict mass gatherings. Not completely outlaw, just restrict. At least the GOP in North Carolina told Trump they'll have to restrict his convention. De Santis gave into Trump no questions asked.

Remember what happened after the Biogen conference?

[lockedout]

So, anyone want to take bets on when Texas caves and locks down again?

Yet WHO says it’s ok to attend large protests.

[Kallisto]

Yep, I never understood the point behind states getting so much leeway in designing policy.
I've never met a person that thinks of it as "Schleswig-Heolsteiner" or "Saxon" instead of "German".

Bavarians excluded, those guys were always ... special snowflakes.

Likely due to Bavaria being the third major German kingdom behind Prussia and Austria pre German unification to the point its own entity survived longer and is stronger than those of the much smaller states.

[Puupi]

Likely due to Bavaria being the third major German kingdom behind Prussia and Austria pre German unification to the point its own entity survived longer and is stronger than those of the much smaller states.

It's probably just the lederhosen.

[PhaelixWW]

Yet WHO says it’s ok to attend large protests.

Not... exactly.

"WHO fully supports equality and the global movement against racism. We reject discrimination of all kinds," said WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on June 8.

To that end, Tedros recommends that protesters follow the guidance of local health officials and take precautions to protect themselves from the novel coronavirus. "We encourage all those protesting around the world to do so safely," he said, "Clean your hands, cover your cough and wear a mask if you attend a protest." He also advised people to maintain a safe distance from others — and to stay home if they are sick.

[lockedout]

Not... exactly.

It’s not possible to partake in protests in major cities and follow those guidelines.

[PhaelixWW]

It’s not possible to partake in protests in major cities and follow those guidelines.

Nor is the WHO saying simply "it's okay to attend large protests".

[PACOX]

Nor is the WHO saying simply "it's okay to attend large protests".

Really a non-issue because Texas declared it safe to go outside before the protests even began. The protests broke no ordinance that Texas didn't already allow. People would have been on the streets with or without the protests.

Also actual infects linked to the protests are low. Maybe because a lot of people wore masks and still took precautions

[Cerilis]

Yeah, and the main issues Germany has faced in this crisis are linked to its federalism and individual states rights for doing whatever the fuck they want.

Fair... ^^"

[Shadowferal]

I'll say it again, politics will have the final say.
There may be particular regions/townships that may close up. But I doubt there'll be any statewide lockdowns.

[Shadowferal]

In general? I mean, most experts are predicting a second wave no matter how much you flatten the curve the first time around. Do you honestly think none will be bad enough for things to have to close down again?

Death rate will have to punch a hole in the political will to do something.
Think; what made NJ gov Murphy suddenly increase the number of people that can gather outside, and drop the whole stay-at-home order out of the blue? That came as quite the surprise to everybody.

[PhaelixWW]

Death rate will have to punch a hole in the political will to do something.

You say that like it's improbable.

People started to lose their worry once the rate had been going down for a while. The tune should change when the rate has been going up for a while instead. It may take longer, but it's not unlikely to happen.

[Shadowferal]

You say that like it's improbable.

People started to lose their worry once the rate had been going down for a while. The tune should change when the rate has been going up for a while instead. It may take longer, but it's not unlikely to happen.

Improbable, yes.
Impossible, no.
I've already stated the circumstances that need to happen.
Why complain about agreeing about it?

[PhaelixWW]

Why complain about agreeing about it?

Who's complaining? I'm politely disagreeing.

And we're clearly not in full agreement about it:

You say that like it's improbable.

Improbable, yes.

...but it's not unlikely to happen.

You don't have to defend your position more if you don't want. We're both guessing about the future, so there's obviously no proof either way right now.

[Breccia]

Posted with lots of comments.

N.Y. Will Impose Quarantine on Visitors From States With Big Outbreaks

New Jersey and Connecticut will also require visitors to quarantine for two weeks. The rule reflects a stark shift in the course of the outbreak.

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo announced on Wednesday that New York and two neighboring states will begin requiring certain out-of-state residents entering their states to quarantine for two weeks upon arrival.

The restrictions, which also cover New Jersey and Connecticut, will be based on specific health metrics related to the coronavirus, Mr. Cuomo said.

The move punctuated a stark shift in the course of the nation’s coronavirus outbreak; for months, the state, particularly New York City, had been a global epicenter of the pandemic. Hospitals filled to near capacity. Hundreds died each day, reaching a peak in mid-April.

Many New Yorkers with the means to do so fled, often to out-of-state locales. By late March, Florida began requiring travelers from the New York area to quarantine. Other states sought to restrict visitors. Researchers later found that by March, New York City had been seeding outbreaks around the country.

Now, the virus appears to be spreading more rapidly outside of New York than inside of the state. New infections are surging in Arizona and Texas. Nearly 20,000 people tested positive for the virus in Florida over the last five days ending Tuesday; in New York, where far more people are being tested daily, roughly 3,200 did during that period.

Only a handful of states, including Maine, Rhode Island and Hawaii, have required out-of-state travelers to quarantine. A larger number have asked travelers to quarantine but do not mandate doing so. And a few, such as Florida and Kansas, apply the requirement only to those coming from certain states.

The new quarantine requirement in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut would apply only to visitors from states where the indicators of the virus’s spread have reached specific levels.

The goal, New York officials said, is to maintain the hard fought gains against the virus that have been made, at great economic and human cost, over the past three months. On Monday, for example, nearly 49,000 people were tested for the virus in New York, and with just shy of 600 coming back positive.

Considering Florida did the same to those 3 states March 23, there's nothing they can say about it. But I can. All those weeks y'all spent saying "Oh New York is screwing up and Florida's barely touched, you liberal elite Yankees, har har har" well guess what, now it's your turn.

Y'all could have just worn the damn mask.