Do you still support Donald Trump?

[Thekri]

Actually that has never reliably worked and it won't ever work in the future either as a matter of principle. However if you think that does work then simply use it to make betting decisions. Since you believe it can tell you the future ahead of time this means you're going to be a very rich person once you apply it to gambling scenarios.



Yeah but for online forums you should only be debating the merit of ideas and not worrying about personal details.

Honestly, I think you need to explain what you mean a bit better. Because I don't think you are really arguing what it looks like you are arguing. I am not attacking you here, I am saying there seems to be some miscommunication as to what your position actually is.

Surely you are not arguing that the present has no effect on the future? Because obviously, the things that are happening in the present will cause other things to happen in the future. The fact we cannot predict specific events in the future with great certainty does not mean that basic laws of causation do not exist.

[Themius]

Honestly, I think you need to explain what you mean a bit better. Because I don't think you are really arguing what it looks like you are arguing. I am not attacking you here, I am saying there seems to be some miscommunication as to what your position actually is.

Surely you are not arguing that the present has no effect on the future? Because obviously, the things that are happening in the present will cause other things to happen in the future. The fact we cannot predict specific events in the future with great certainty does not mean that basic laws of causation do not exist.

The most important thing to understand about the future is that it's never based on history, ever. If you want to make an argument then you have to base it on *explanation*, otherwise it is worthless.

His words and folly argument are very clear.

[PACOX]

Trump's takes validates the takes of a lot people who were ignored. Why were those people ignored? Because their takes are God awful.

[szechuan]

Surely you are not arguing that the present has no effect on the future? Because obviously, the things that are happening in the present will cause other things to happen in the future. The fact we cannot predict specific events in the future with great certainty does not mean that basic laws of causation do not exist.

You're talking to the same person who is Anti-Science and ignores Scientific Data, Studies, and Trends

[Rasulis]

Manufacturing is not on the way out, it is changing. Much like Agriculture did. In fact, Agriculture is the dominate reason for the changing US economy, not Manufacturing. Manufacturing was a relatively temporary boom, lasting from the last few decades of the 19th Century to about two thirds of the way through the twentieth. Agriculture was the primary industry for labor, and had been for millennia.

The productivity of Agriculture is higher then it has ever been, but it has fragmented, between capitol intensive mechanized farming, which is largely done in developed countries, and labor intensive agriculture, which is largely done in developing nations (With some being immigrant labor in developed countries). Manufacturing is following exactly the same pattern. At the upper end of the scale, US Manufacturing is very much alive. I work in Manufacturing, in a huge plant that makes giant things out of steel. But pretty much nobody in that plant makes less than $30 an hour, and most make considerably more. It wouldn't be efficient to make our steel, so we buy it. We buy most components actually, isn't worth paying the labor costs to produce it here, even though we have more then enough skill. Instead, we use this plant to do the design, experimentation, assembly, and quality stages of each product. We do all the complex bits and moving parts, but we don't cast the frames and such.

A lot of people like looking at the world through nostalgia goggles, and claiming unions killed manufacturing. They didn't. Low shipping costs and global resource availability "Killed" manufacturing. It never died, and it isn't likely too, but the good old days with 1500 workers in a plant are never coming back. We can run it just fine with 150.

I blamed Toyota for introducing their TPS to the west and the subsequent obsessive compulsive endless refinement of the system by an entire generation of manufacturing efficiency experts.

[PC2]

Bruh they call it the stock market it's literally a trillion dollar industry.

Exactly and there's an underlying reason for why no predictive methodology can reliably determine the future state of the stock market at any point in time. If that were possible you would simply use that method to buy low and sell high and before long you'd find that you're a millionaire, then a billionaire, then a trillionaire.

[Machismo]

Okay so if i'm wrong and that idea has merit then you should exploit it by betting more and more of your money on future events. Put your money where your mouth is.

Are you still trying to push this bullshit?

Once again, your entire argument can be countered on whether you brush your teeth. Do you brush your teeth?

[PC2]

Once again, your entire argument can be countered on whether you brush your teeth. Do you brush your teeth?

Of course but where is the argument? There's no disagreement here.

Yeah imagine if there were millionaires and billionaires thatd be wild.

What about them?

[Felya]

Of course but where is the argument? There's no disagreement here.

Why do you brush your teeth? Do you do it because you understand the history of what happens when you don’t brush your teeth?

- - - Updated - - -

What about them?

He is arguing that some people do have the foresight to result in being millionaires. A better argument is 401k or mutual funds... their job is to do what you consider impossible. Your argument about history, just reminds me of the infamous Bush quote... Fool me once, shame on you... Fool me twice, shame on me... Fool me, well, not going to happen again...

[Rasulis]

Exactly and there's an underlying reason for why no predictive methodology can reliably determine the future state of the stock market at any point in time. If that were possible you would simply use that method to buy low and sell high and before long you'd find that you're a millionaire, then a billionaire, then a trillionaire.

As long as you are not trying to beat the market, the stock market investment long-term gain is pretty predictive. Provided you invest based on revenue, net revenue, debt load, growth and market competition. Here is cut & paste from another post I did on 06/25. The gains are outdated, these stocks have gone up even more since then.

Investing in Apple in 2013 would have gained 470% in return to date despite the pandemic.

Microsoft - 494%

Amazon - 585%

Google - 228%

Facebook - 760%

Visa - 328%

Esco Technologies - 180%

Oracle - 69% (10% per year return is nothing to sneeze at)

Disney - 64% (despite the park closure)

FSCSX - 124%

Not the best ETF in term of gain. But one of the oldest. Also one of the few with no minimum purchase. You can literally drop $50 into it. It also has the lowest cost.

Tetra Tech - 280%

Another oldies. Tetra Tech is an engineering company that has been around since 1966.

I like boring. I like stocks and funds that I can invest in and not have to worry about it for the next 10 years.

[PC2]

Why do you brush your teeth?

I brush my teeth because I have good explanations of how they work and can decay. I want them pearly-white!

Do you do it because you understand the history of what happens when you don’t brush your teeth?

No and we should avoid that kind of logic because it's like saying that a person can't learn to brush their teeth until they get their first cavity or some other dental problem. Which it's complete nonsense that a person needs a historical experience before they can learn a lesson.

- - - Updated - - -

As long as you are not trying to beat the market, the stock market investment long-term gain is pretty predictive. Provided you invest based on revenue, net revenue, debt load, growth and market competition. Here is cut & paste from another post I did on 06/25. The gains are outdated, these stocks have gone up even more since then.

That's because society is based on growth, so over the long-term there are only ever two options; eventual growth or eventual extinction. However nothing ever grows because it has been growing in past, it only grows if people are successful at creating more useful stuff and solving new problems. Which that depends on human effort and performance and the idea that you're ever going to know that based on history is complete nonsense.

[Kellhound]

I blamed Toyota for introducing their TPS to the west and the subsequent obsessive compulsive endless refinement of the system by an entire generation of manufacturing efficiency experts.

TPS was inspired by the teaching of an American, and is a very effective tool to increase manufacturing efficiency and quality.

[Blur4stuff]

Getting really off track about why someone would continue supporting a guy that bragged about sexually assaulting women.

[RadasNoir]

No and we should avoid that kind of logic because it's like saying that a person can't learn to brush their teeth until they get their first cavity or some other dental problem. Which it's complete nonsense that a person needs a historical experience before they can learn a lesson.

Er, but there totally are people, especially children, who don't fully understand the importance of brushing one's teeth until after they've gone through the horrible experience of having a cavity. You're right that not everyone needs a historical experience before they can learn a lesson, but it definitely helps and it can be necessary for the particularly stubborn.

Likewise, you're not wrong that history can't always explain or predict future events, but it is utter folly to say that it is completely impossible to do so. Human behavior in particular has changed very little over the years, which is why there are so many uncomfortable parallels between the current pandemic and prior ones, including the Spanish Flu of 1918.

Ya know, it's a joke, but the definition of ''cuck'' actually kind of fits pretty well for a Trump supporter in all honesty, voting against their own interests and all

Among the many things I don't understand about our friends from across the political aisle, is why "cuck" became such a popular insult for them. If anything, with how sycophantic or paranoid some of them come across, I would not at all be surprised if they would be totally fine with Trump sleeping with their wife or girlfriend, if he told them that somewhere, somehow it would upset a single liberal.

[PC2]

Ya know, it's a joke, but the definition of ''cuck'' actually kind of fits pretty well for a Trump supporter in all honesty, voting against their own interests and all

I don't think that's what "cuck" means. Cuckoldry is when someone else is having sex with your wife, or when you let someone else take what is yours. How is Trump doing that to anyone else? Are we really supposed to believe "a real anti-cuck votes for Biden". lol

[Cthulhu 2020]

Just a few snippets:
- large scale censorship of free speech because "freespeech is hatespeech".
- unofficial social credit score, as companies refuse to serve certain individuals on account of opinions voiced by those individuals in public. Banks, credit card companies, social media platforms, and certain companies, have already started using such a system of social credit score.
- severe gun control and gun confiscations.
- affirmative action hirings based not only on race but also on sexual preferences in order to have "diversity and inclusion" at all costs.
- rewriting of history in order to make it PC, and destroying symbols of civilization in the process, basically blaming white people for everything that happened since 300000 B.C.
- changing culture and entertainment in order to pander to certain puritans. Ex: no depictions of slavery in any medium of entertainment, no depictions of nudity in video games because "male gaze", no depictions of male heroic themes because "male toxicity", replacing well established characters and changing stories in order to introduce LGBT themes and female characters.
- worshiping corporations and main stream media.
- allowing for unchecked migration even if the people who come have values and cultures that are incompatible with the locals'.
- destruction of national identity in order to make room for globalism, because national identities are "white supremacy".

You listed a bunch of stuff that isn't actually happening in the US, presented it as your reason for voting Trump, and then deny you get these views from celebrities. That you've bought into the hysteria that the left is doing the things above is proof enough.

You say you don't listen to celebrities, and you watch what's going on. But anyone who's ACTUALLY paying attention to what's happening in the US can tell you that none of it is going on. They're all very prevalent complaints by right wing talking heads. They convince you that these things are happening, and then say stuff like "Just look around! Guns are being confiscated in droves by liberals!" They ultimately convince you that you were the one who came to the conclusion that these are things the left is pushing for.

[PC2]

Likewise, you're not wrong that history can't always explain or predict future events, but it is utter folly to say that it is completely impossible to do so.

Except it is impossible to predict the future of humans for anything non-trivial because that depends on the growth of knowledge. Unless we know what new things all 7.8 billion of us will learn tomorrow then we cannot predict how our behaviors will change on a day-to-day basis, let alone years and decades.

Human behavior in particular has changed very little over the years, which is why there are so many uncomfortable parallels between the current pandemic and prior ones, including the Spanish Flu of 1918.

Human behavior has done nothing but change in the last 200k years since man evolved. That's what makes us human is that we don't stick to our particular genetic behaviours but instead it's always an on-going cultural evolution.

[Flarelaine]

I’m kinda fond of Texas... Keep Austin weird!

So that's where "Keep Beach City Weird" comes from.

[callipygoustp]

A lot of the usual disingenuous bullshit but very few actually answering the question. THAT in and of itself speaks volumes.

[RadasNoir]

Human behavior has done nothing but change in the last 200k years since man evolved. That's what makes us human is that we don't stick to our particular genetic behaviours but instead it's always an on-going cultural evolution.

I'm sorry, but on average, humans are still the dumb, dangerous, and panicky animals we have always been. Again, I don't know how you can look at all the people who refuse to wear masks, get vaccines, or are still convinced that the world is flat, and really believe we've actually evolved all that much as a species. Technology may have improved, but we certainly have not.