Mega-Thread: Trump Focused Discussion

[Benggaul]

It sucks for us because the stores here get a lot of US business but its just not worth the risk. I wouldn't open that border till you lot get your shit together.

I don't think most here blame you or your countrymen for that attitude. I think we're (mostly) as horrified as you are.

[DarkTZeratul]

Six months ago, no one thought Covid-19 existed in the US.

[1 million infected within the first 99 days] The first reported case came on January 21. Within 99 days, 1 million Americans became infected.
[2 million 43 days later] It took just 43 days after that to reach 2 million cases.
[3 million 28 days later] And 28 days later, the US reached 3 million cases of the novel coronavirus Wednesday.

These numbers seem bad. VERY bad. Catastrophically bad. I know it's not exponentially (yet), but holy fuck.

That looks pretty close to exponential. Every million cases approximately cuts the time in half for the next million cases. Extrapolating out, we could have 5 million cases by August.

[Rasulis]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-...take-risks-too

Astronauts take risks, so school teachers and students should too!

These fucking people. There isn't a hell of horrors large enough for them.

Stupid statements like that are why the GOP is spending big advertising money in Georgia, Texas, Florida and a host of states that should have been solid red. Pretty much every former solid red states are either swing or contested states now. So keep them coming.

Meanwhile poor California and Washington are not getting any of those advertising money.

[cubby]

That looks pretty close to exponential. Every million cases approximately cuts the time in half for the next million cases. Extrapolating out, we could have 5 million cases by August.

Ok, thanks for that - I don't like to use that word mostly because people misuse it a lot, but yeah, I was certainly thinking it was. I mean, holy shit - is any "developed" country doing worse than us?

[Rasulis]

And Arizona, Texas, and Florida are all starting to have to face very real choices about who gets ICU beds. Probably why Florida reached out to NY, despite their governor’s attacks on Cuomo’s handling of Covid, for help dealing with this shit.

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Betting odds have actually shifted to Dems taking the senate, just barely. I’m sure the GOP is all hands on deck for the next 4 months.

They are at least on the attack. Democrats outspent Republicans by 30M in advertising for the Senate races. And the GOP is pouring money to defend Georgia. Hell! That's like Nancy Pelosi actually having to campaign to defend her SF congressional seat.

[cubby]

Just a minor heads up. There’s some expectation that SCOTUS will rule on Trump’s taxes tomorrow morning. If either case goes against him expect some special shit.

I'm 0/2 on my "bets" for that ruling. But the skinny is that the ruling will be split - release the taxes, but some limits on Congressional subpoena authority. I'm in a rush today with work, but something in the back of my head is saying I don't have those two issues correct.

Looks like it's confirmed - SCOTUS releasing Trump tax ruling tomorrow (Thursday).

[Zan15]

Just a minor heads up. There’s some expectation that SCOTUS will rule on Trump’s taxes tomorrow morning. If either case goes against him expect some special shit.

i have no hope, even though there is a clear order of congress on this and past challenges that failed.....

i think it will be 5-4 in favor of fucking congressional powers

then one of the few things that kept fuckers honest when running for office will go poof.

[cubby]

They are at least on the attack. Democrats outspent Republicans by 30M in advertising for the Senate races. And the GOP is pouring money to defend Georgia. Hell! That's like Nancy Pelosi actually having to campaign to defend her SF congressional seat.

Indeed - this is phenomenal news. And terrific analogy. This is exactly what we wanted to see from the GOP - millions in resources for a Senate seat that should have been a given two years ago.

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i have no hope, even though there is a clear order of congress on this and past challenges that failed.....

i think it will be 5-4 in favor of fucking congressional powers

then one of the few things that kept fuckers honest when running for office will go poof.

I will have hope for you - because I can more than understand how hopelessness can overwhelm. I was there a couple of days ago, might have actually posted about it.

The ruling and the count will be fantastically interesting. I have almost no predictions at this point that wouldn't be the same as wild guesses. Precedent and law come down in favor of the House and Fed/State agencies subpoena power. But who knows what will happen in this day and age. I mean, FFS, Gorsuch ruled in favor of LGBTQ rights.

There are no rules.

[Zan15]

Indeed - this is phenomenal news. And terrific analogy. This is exactly what we wanted to see from the GOP - millions in resources for a Senate seat that should have been a given two years ago.

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I will have hope for you - because I can more than understand how hopelessness can overwhelm. I was there a couple of days ago, might have actually posted about it.

The ruling and the count will be fantastically interesting. I have almost no predictions at this point that wouldn't be the same as wild guesses. Precedent and law come down in favor of the House and Fed/State agencies subpoena power. But who knows what will happen in this day and age. I mean, FFS, Gorsuch ruled in favor of LGBTQ rights.

There are no rules.

Really its like betting on the stock market. there is no logical reason for anything that is happening in the market right now.

[Edge-]

there is no logical reason for anything that is happening in the market right now.

There potentially is...though it's ironically based on irrationality. Big investors are literally willing the market to stay high by rejecting new that would normally trigger selloffs and instead doubling down on holding and buying.

It's literally investors pretending that everything is fine to protect stock values and...it's working. If ever there was a moment to point out how fundamentally batshit insane the way the stock market operates is, I can't think of a better time than now.

[Zan15]

There potentially is...though it's ironically based on irrationality. Big investors are literally willing the market to stay high by rejecting new that would normally trigger selloffs and instead doubling down on holding and buying.

It's literally investors pretending that everything is fine to protect stock values and...it's working. If ever there was a moment to point out how fundamentally batshit insane the way the stock market operates is, I can't think of a better time than now.

actually big investors and funds have record amount of cash and non stock investments right now.

its the retail investors that are driving markets to new highs.

That and the insane pivot to just a few high tech companies that are making up a huge % of the market gains. Take them out of the mix and the market looks anemic.
Their Weight is even higher than those few during the tech boom-bust of 2000

[Breccia]

Astronauts take risks, so school teachers and students should too!

Education leaders really do need to examine real data and weigh risk. They already deal with risk on a daily basis. We know that risk is embedded in everything we do. Learning to ride a bike, to the risk of getting in a space capsule and getting shot off in a rocket into space

--DeVos

"Risk is embedded in everything we do" is way up there with "All lives matter". And I'm sure we're all aware, US teachers are not paid well enough to assume the risk that comes with being in a packed crowd of children, especially children of parents who don't obey rules, who could be contagious. States are setting records by the day, and it's not like every teacher is a healthy under-30-years crossfiti instructor.

I got a message today that my childhood school district just had its president resign -- the third major resignation since the outbreak. He wasn't caught using the C-word in a PTA meeting and he wasn't that old. He just didn't want to deal with this shit so badly, he retired in July. And I probably wouldn't have noticed so much, except earlier this same day, during a "how do we proceed from here" department meeting, admin told us some professors had basically threatened to retire rather than teach online (I mean, if I had 2-3 years left and I was told I'd have to learn a dramatically new skill, I'd consider that too).

DeVos has some fucking nerve to say "you signed up for this" when she's the one backing fraudulent student loans -- people literally cheating in a rigged game.

[alexw]

And Arizona, Texas, and Florida are all starting to have to face very real choices about who gets ICU beds. Probably why Florida reached out to NY, despite their governor’s attacks on Cuomo’s handling of Covid, for help dealing with this shit.

I'm sure DeSantis is trying to offload patients to other states that have spare ICU beds. At the rate this is metasizing though it won't be long before there will be a complete overload of the healthcare system, and at that point the death rate will rocket. Doctors will be telling relatives that they are sorry but there's absolutely nothing they can do for your son/daughter/father/mother/uncle/brother/etc. They will have to die or get better on their own.

[Zan15]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-...take-risks-too

Astronauts take risks, so school teachers and students should too!

These fucking people. There isn't a hell of horrors large enough for them.

Astronauts' annual salaries are determined using a government pay scale, and starting out, typically fall under two grades: GS-12 and GS-13. According the US government's 2020 pay scales and a NASA job listing, a civilian astronaut in 2020 can earn between $66,167 and $161,141 per year

However, active military service members can earn more through additional benefits they bring with them to NASA's astronaut corps.

Plus...umm...NATIONAL SOCIALIST HEALTHCARE (va) on top of normal health insurance options FOR LIFE

oh and they get life insurance.


AND SOCIALIST HOUSING....

Military astronauts have the added bonus of housing allowances, as do other military personnel. In addition to base pay, colonels and captains are given over $1,528 a month for housing without any dependents, and almost $1,845 a month with dependents. Brigadier generals -- and any other rank above this -- are given $1,667 a month without dependents and $2,050 with dependents. They may also be eligible for special incentives, such as aviation career incentive pay, which could bring an additional $150 to $1,000 a month more to base salaries



but hey teachers should take a risk too....

[Sorshen]

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...only-students/

Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology today sued the Trump administration to block an action that forces foreign students with nonimmigrant visas to leave the United States or transfer to different schools that offer in-person classes. The schools' complaint, filed in US District Court for the District of Massachusetts, asks for a temporary restraining order and permanent injunction preventing the administration from enforcing the new policy issued by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

When's the last time prominent universities sued the administration? What a shitshow

[Pannonian]

Ouch, but so true.

[Breccia]

I know it's not exponentially

*cracks knuckles*

It is exponential. The good news, is technically it's slowing down.

No, really.

Growing from 1 million to 2 million in 43 days, exponentially that is, is 1.6% growth rate per day.

Growing from 2 million to 3 million in 28 Days Later would be 1.45% growth rate per day. Honestly, that's pretty consistent.

Note that the first 99 days don't fit that mold. The lethal outbreak spread way faster at first than the last 2-3 months, but that's pretty standard for lethal virus outbreaks. These things are harder and harder to model when stupid people are spreading the virus intentionally. But I found a March 19th date that said US hit 10,000 cases. 10,000 is a good number to use, because (a) it goes evenly into 1,000,000 and (b) Texas hit that literally today all by themselves y'all. Tracking that backwards, that's 10,000->1,000,000 in a span of 39 days.

Which is a daily growth rate of nearly twelve percent a day -- almost 10x what we're seeing now.

Also, cubby, I think you cited CNN's scrolling newsfeed or something, because no way would that link you posted which I clicked on contain this, and you'd fail to see it...unless it scrolled in there after you saw it.

If most Americans heed the directive, as many as 45,000 fewer Americans will die of coronavirus this fall, according to Dr. Chris Murray, the director of the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

The latest model, released Tuesday, projects as many as 208,000 coronavirus deaths by November 1.

The new death rate stems from the recent surge in cases combined with seasonality and schools reopening, Murray said.

The number drops to 163,000 if most Americans wear a face mask, according to the model.

Just so we're clear, that means thirty thousand more people are projected to die...best case scenario. And we hit nearly 1k yesterday.

I don't know how their models work, so I'll use mine just to give a low-rent version. Just to round the numbers off, what would it take to get 1k deaths yesterday to exponentially slope down to 30,000 total by Nov 1, 116 days away?

About a 3.4% daily drop. Starting 24 hours ago. Well over double the rate you just posted, and also in the wrong direction.

And that model above? It's not taking into account any increase at all -- which the record-breaking day by day cases we're seeing could very easily cause. Trump is clinging to "death rate is lower" but, my accuracy would be worse with a machine gun than a sniper rifle, and I'd still ht with more bullets in the same time. A lower death rate won't be much consolation if the number of deaths-per-day hit four digits again. "Your parent/child/spouse/friend's death was statistically less likely," Trump will say while chucking paper towels, "donate to my campaign JOBS!"

Speaking of the wrong direction: it's time for Guess the Speaker!

Well, I think we are in a good place. I disagree with him.

Dr. Fauci said don't wear masks and now he says wear them. And he said numerous things. Don't close off China. Don't ban China. I did it anyway. I didn't listen to my experts and I banned China. We would have been in much worse shape.

We've done a good job. I think we are going to be in two, three, four weeks, by the time we next speak, I think we're going to be in very good shape.

By the way, I can't help but notice Trump is saying Fauci opposed the travel ban, but he did it anyhow. This whitehouse.gov transcript dated Jan 31 is the first such measure put into place. Fauci was there when Azar announced it. Considering Jan 22 was

It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.

That's a very narrow window to find Fauci opposing a travel ban before it happened. Now, I'll be honest, Fauci did say a few questionable things like "low risk" in that time. But I can't find anywhere where he said a travel ban was a bad idea. (He did say China tried it but he didn't think it would work, he compared it to trying to close down NYC, and he was right. But that's not even close to what Trump suggested)

"Surely Fauci said it behind closed doors."

When Trump says "someone told me this" without evidence, Trump's track record is enough for me to handwave that. I mean, I could say "Lindsey Graham's wife told me behind closed doors I have a massive penis" but that's hardly compelling evidence. But, maybe you can find it? You have 24 hours. Oh, and don't forget, Trump was talking about his Muslim travel ban Jan 22, so, please restrict your search accordingly. Failure to even look means you admit Fauci said no such thing.

Oh, and you'll notice Azar, Fauci, Redfield and others are all saying "WHO declared it a problem first" so any claims of "acting very quickly" are therefore broken by Team Trump as well as objective factual evidence. Sorry, but if you are blaming the WHO for your problems, you can't say you acted quickly when even they were faster than you were. Sorry. I don't make the rules. I just enforce them.

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Tulsa health officials flat-out admit in public Trump's rally probably made things worse.

Tulsa City-County Health Department Director Bruce Dart during a Wednesday press conference attributed the increase in new cases over the past two days to the rally and the associated protests. On Monday, the county identified 261 new cases, the highest daily increase during the pandemic, and on Tuesday, officials confirmed 206 new cases, he said.

“In the past two days, we’ve had almost 500 new cases, and we knew we had several large events a little over two weeks ago, which is about right, so I guess we just connect the dots,” Dart said.

The health department has a policy not to publicly identify settings where people may have contracted the virus.

But when asked how Tulsa County ended up having the most cases in the state, Dart said, “We did have some significant events in the past few weeks that more than likely contributed to that.”

“We have to follow different rules now,” he said, adding, “If we’re going out in public and we’re engaging with other people and we’re not taking precautions, we’re gonna have transmissions. I mean, that’s just the bottom line.”

*ahem*

No.

You had to follow the rules then. You chose not to do it. That's why Tulsa had a record high number of cases Tuesday. You chose to let Trump break the rules, oh and let's not forget those infected staff he brought with him, and you allowed that to happen. And let's be honest, Tulsa wasn't doing so hot beforehand -- we discussed that here, too.

Sorry. I don't make the rules. But if they're not followed, I will say you're not allowed to complain when you lose. Until you have a second chance, maybe other places will use you as a bad example and learn from your mistake. Like Houston just did.

Houston officials are canceling next week’s in-person Texas Republican convention as coronavirus cases surge across the state, Mayor Sylvester Turner (D) said Wednesday.

Turner said he instructed the Houston First Corporation, which operates the George R. Brown Convention Center, to exercise its right to contractually cancel the GOP convention that was set to be held next week at the facility.

He denied that the decision was made out of any political interest and said holding the convention would have posed a “clear and present” danger to the Houston community.

“[The] Houston health department has done everything they could to try and outline a series of things that could be done to make it safer but then came to the conclusion that even if you did all of those things, it still would not prevent this convention from being a clear and present danger to the employees, to the delegates, to the people in Houston, to the cities and towns from which they come,” Turner said Wednesday at a briefing.

The GOP has naturally complained, but their argument boils down to "but protestors!" Which is a lot like the police when caught murdering people, saying "but black people!"

The event would have started the 13th.

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Facebook takes a swing at The Proud Boys.

[Edge-]

Once again, we likely have a tempest in a teacup, and I'll admit for not thinking this through either.

Trump's threat to cut funding for schools? Well, there are a few problems.

First off, most public schools are funded by state and local taxes, federal funding on average accounts for around 10% of their funding. So it'll hurt, especially since so many schools without added community funding are already strapped for cash, but it's not going to gut most of the funding - https://www.ppic.org/publication/fin...ublic-schools/

Second off, the Trump administration may not even be able to do this and, when pressed, has been unable to cite any authority to withhold these funds - https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/w...-not-reopening

So yeah, fucking stupid as all god-damned hell.

[Omega10]

Six months ago, no one thought Covid-19 existed in the US.

[1 million infected within the first 99 days] The first reported case came on January 21. Within 99 days, 1 million Americans became infected.
[2 million 43 days later] It took just 43 days after that to reach 2 million cases.
[3 million 28 days later] And 28 days later, the US reached 3 million cases of the novel coronavirus Wednesday.

These numbers seem bad. VERY bad. Catastrophically bad. I know it's not exponentially (yet), but holy fuck.

Excellent post. This puts a lot of things in perspective. And the "lowering death rate" of the virus is counteracted by the increased death rates for related illnesses.

The worst part is: the virus has embedded itself deeply throughout the whole country. It will be around for quite a while. I was not expecting to be thinking about it substantially ACCELERATING though. This seems not only possible but even probable.

Be as safe as you can. At this point it is all we can do.

[Blur4stuff]

If most schools opened back up the daily death toll by the end of the year would be quite ridiculous. Kids are dirty grimy goblins spreading anything and everything wherever they go.