GDP Report: Record Decline of US Economy

[Tierbook]

I'm assuming at some point someone has pointed out that GDP dropped 9.5% not 33% last quarter right.
I mean it's bad but it's still better than a good chunk of countries.

[Edge-]

I'm assuming at some point someone has pointed out that GDP dropped 9.5% not 33% last quarter right.
I mean it's bad but it's still better than a good chunk of countries.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/07...ay-coronavirus

Gross domestic product — the broadest measure of goods and services produced — fell 9.5 percent in the second quarter of the year, the Commerce Department said Thursday. On an annualized basis, the standard way of reporting quarterly economic data, G.D.P. fell at a rate of 32.9 percent.

Because reporting the annualized change of quarterly data is how it's always reported.

[Tierbook]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/07...ay-coronavirus



Because reporting the annualized change of quarterly data is how it's always reported.

True, but if anyone is expecting the GDP to drop 9.5% each quarter through Q1 2021 then they aren't paying attention.... though i suppose this means we'll leave October with a gdp report saying GDP up 35-40%.

The issue comes when people compare US gdp to other countries without accounting for the annually bit since I'm not sure of any other countries that report it like that.

[Xyonai]

The President is supposed to model appropriate behavior.

For MONTHS, Trump refused to wear a mask, said it wasn't necessary and didn't help, in contradiction to the recommendations from his own CDC.

Trump complained that it was a hoax by Democrats to make him look bad, that everyone was going to be fine.

His response to this crisis has been abysmal by every metric since it began.

There are also the allegations that Kushner's COVID task-force willfully kneecapped itself in the early days of the pandemic, because it was hitting 'blue states', and wanted to score political points by letting a deadly virus make Democrats look bad.

So it's a bit beyond making it worse because Trump can't get over himself; it's deliberately letting a pandemic fester out of short-sighted spite.

[Tierbook]

There are also the allegations that Kushner's COVID task-force willfully kneecapped itself in the early days of the pandemic, because it was hitting 'blue states', and wanted to score political points by letting a deadly virus make Democrats look bad.

So it's a bit beyond making it worse because Trump can't get over himself; it's deliberately letting a pandemic fester out of short-sighted spite.

The probably gave up after NY brought up lawsuits
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/28/ny-g...uarantine.html

[Felya]

The probably gave up after NY threatened to sue if the government forced them to shut down.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/28/ny-g...uarantine.html

Your link is talking about federal government locking the state down from travel, not a state lock down.

[Edge-]

The probably gave up after NY brought up lawsuits
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/28/ny-g...uarantine.html

Probably because it was, again, an unbaked idea Trump just blurted out without bothering to discuss with the governors of those states until after he made the statement.

You know, Trump's usual schtick.

Your link is talking about federal government locking the state down from travel, not a state lock down.

And they were already doing so -

Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont has said the tri-state governors are already implementing certain quarantine measures.

[Felya]

Probably because it was, again, an unbaked idea Trump just blurted out without bothering to discuss with the governors of those states until after he made the statement.

You know, Trump's usual schtick.

Closing the state down, is not the same as helping. Spending millions on chloroquine in Florida, while refusing to lock down, would at least be doing something... as stupid as that something is.

[Zan15]

I'm assuming at some point someone has pointed out that GDP dropped 9.5% not 33% last quarter right.
I mean it's bad but it's still better than a good chunk of countries.

fun with percentages!!

You realize if you go with the 9.5% its much worse way of showing the drop.

the worst drop prior was around 2.6% in the post war economy (how most people track these things).
Commerce Department data, which goes back to 1947, shows the previous worst quarter on record was a 2.6 percent drop in 1958. That contraction just happened to coincide with the “Asian flu” pandemic, which claimed about a million lives worldwide.


That 9.5% is a 340ish% percentage beat on the 2nd worst drop since WW2 when they started keeping real offical records.


Unofficial records, You would have to go back to the great depression to beat trump

From 1929 to 1933, GDP contracted about 36 percent, according to data collected by economists Nathan Balke and Robert Gordon. That is the actual contraction
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...-three-months/

With Balke and Gordon’s expanded data, we can also establish that a drop of 9.5 percent makes this quarter the worst since at least 1875. The next worst were in 1893, when a legendary panic and run on the banks resulted in a long, painful depression, and 1937, when the Great Depression took a turn for the worse. Then, we saw drops of 8.4 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively.

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True, but if anyone is expecting the GDP to drop 9.5% each quarter through Q1 2021 then they aren't paying attention.... though i suppose this means we'll leave October with a gdp report saying GDP up 35-40%.

The issue comes when people compare US gdp to other countries without accounting for the annually bit since I'm not sure of any other countries that report it like that.

well its early and the predictions are from 8-30%

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-7-1029369080#

Goldman Sachs cuts US GDP estimate, now sees economy shrinking 4.6% in 2020

Goldman Sachs economists lowered their third-quarter US GDP growth forecast to 25% from 33% on Saturday, citing weak consumer services spending and the strong uptick in national coronavirus cases.


As i said a few pages back, whomever is president for 2021 2Q will break year over year Quartlery records....lol

[Deja Thoris]

How can his response be blamed. When he didn't respond? He is rightfully getting blamed for not responding. To say he had a response would mean he did something. That's not the case here. Now he's fucked up the only thing he had going for him and had the biggest gdp drop ever.

Forgot the word drop

Not responding when your job is to respond is a response.

Much complicated.

[PC2]

A very Trump economy.

lol funny quip, you shouldn't view this as good though because if voters attribute economic numbers to the sitting president and Biden wins then he would receive the brunt of the economic fallout from the pandemic in the next four years. It's a lose-lose situation.

[Howel]

lol funny quip, you shouldn't view this as good though because if voters attribute economic numbers to the sitting president and Biden wins then he would receive the brunt of the economic fallout from the pandemic in the next four years. It's a lose-lose situation.

Might as well make it a tradition at this point, that Democratic presidents take over abysmal economies

[Collegeguy]

Housing prices could pop as well once more ecommerce decide permanent business plans to work from home saves costs. Especially when you don't need to hire employees that live in 600,000 houses in New York.

[SirBeef]

Where are the morons who love to claim the stock market being high means the economy is doing great for the working class?

[D Luniz]

lol funny quip, you shouldn't view this as good though because if voters attribute economic numbers to the sitting president and Biden wins then he would receive the brunt of the economic fallout from the pandemic in the next four years. It's a lose-lose situation.

meh, already watched that happen to Obama, and he got re-elected

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Where are the morons who love to claim the stock market being high means the economy is doing great for the working class?

they're around, just like the guy that likes to cheer polls when Trump goes up a point in one before dropping back down over the next month

I remember one of the trumphadies once claimed the "F.A.N.G." stocks were all purposely devaluing their stock (a MASSIVE crime if true) but doesnt say anything now that they are mostly whats holding the market up

[Breccia]

lol funny quip, you shouldn't view this as good though because if voters attribute economic numbers to the sitting president and Biden wins then he would receive the brunt of the economic fallout from the pandemic in the next four years. It's a lose-lose situation.

You mean, like, Obama did in 2008 through 2012?

By the way, it looks like you haven't been watching these forums. Trump has been taking a victory lap on recovery numbers, as shown here:

I’d like to just announce the spectacular news for American workers and American families and for our country as a whole. There’s not been anything like this — record setting. It was just put out that the United States economy added almost 5 million jobs in the month of June, shattering all expectations.

I was watching this morning, and the expectations were much lower than that. The stock market is doing extremely well, which means, to me, jobs. That’s what it means: jobs. This is the largest monthly jobs gain in the history of our country. The unemployment rate fell by more than 2 percentage points down to just about 11 percent. We’re down to the 11 percent number. We started at a number very much higher than that. As you know, we broke the record last month, and we broke it again this month in an even bigger way.

Yes, that's June 2020 he's talking about. Despite how far down we still are, he's cheering the recovery. He's cheering unemployment being back down to eleven.

Trump seems to disagree with your assessment. You seem to believe Biden won't be able to take credit for four years of recovery, when Trump is celebrating one month of recovery with a Rose Garden speech and patting himself on the back. Would you care to say "what Trump said was wrong, he should not be celebrating recovery when we're still far below what we were" or would you care to say "well I guess recovery is a good thing and Biden can take credit for four years of it should that happen, even if we're not out of the hole Trump dug"? I mean, it can't be both.

I'd also like to clear up a misconception: nobody believes the damage to the economy is a good thing. This is the classic "First you didn't want me to get the pony, now you want me to take it back! Make up your mind!" joke from The Simpsons. Trump's economic policies were based in reckless planning or no planning and have led, very predictably, to failure...even in 2019. His lack of actions on COVID-19 burned the crops and salted the earth, no question, but the crops were already wilted and drying because Trump chose not to water them. Nobody is cheering the results. We didn't want these results. We are, however, pointing out who is responsible for them, and pointing out that Trump will have consequences for his actions (and lack of actions). Think of it as applauding that a thief is sent to jail for stealing, but not celebrating the crime the thief committed.

It's the best we can do, when metaphorically dining on ashes.

[Felya]

How about this... we delay the elections until the market sees yuge gains. We frees wallstreet for a week and get everyone voting as soon as possible. I don’t see how election can be fair, when market numbers are this bad.

[Powerogue]

On record? As in including The Great Depression?!

[Zan15]

On record? As in including The Great Depression?!

well official GDP figures were not tracked until 1947 ish.

One page back i listed and a few others about "records"

https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...1#post52539770

Commerce Department data, which goes back to 1947, shows the previous worst quarter on record was a 2.6 percent drop in 1958. That contraction just happened to coincide with the “Asian flu” pandemic, which claimed about a million lives worldwide.

With Balke and Gordon’s expanded data, we can also establish that a drop of 9.5 percent makes this quarter the worst since at least 1875. The next worst were in 1893, when a legendary panic and run on the banks resulted in a long, painful depression, and 1937, when the Great Depression took a turn for the worse. Then, we saw drops of 8.4 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively.

[Acidbaron]

On record? As in including The Great Depression?!

Depression will most likely happen over there if this keeps up what it seems it will as their government is incompetent and actually working against states that do have things under control.

Now you still have a few government bail outs keeping things a float but i do think those ran out yesterday and republicans are in no rush to come up with something new, i think they for see losing in november and are going full scorched earth to increase their chances next time, and who can blame them plenty of americans are easily influenced and uneducated so they will blame current ruling party for the problems created last time around, happens nearly every time.

I think once you see people getting evicted and consumption continues to drop that means a large part of the US economy is going to keep shrinking, it's a vicious circle people save money because they are not certain of their future income what in turn means less work, as people spend less on goods and services.

I think Mexicans working on ranches are probably going to be better of than your average america in the near future. So maybe we'll see people contesting for jobs there.