Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[PhaelixWW]

The result of that study isn't that clear, and the relevance for schools are even less clear.

You completely and utterly ignored the first of the two studies in the linked source.

First and foremost it was done in Italy during the complete lockdown, so schools were closed

Which would seem to indicate that open schools would provide exponentially more child-to-child contact, exacerbating the findings of this study.

...the hyped result is based on just 14 children age 0-14 as few children were seen as infected (there were 14 index cases for age 0-14 compared 477 for age 50-64; I didn't see any explanation for why older people were 30 times more likely to be infected at the start). And if we look at secondary cases (that primarily are among households with long contacts) children are also less likely to become infected.

A plausible explanation is that they missed lightly infected children, and got this conclusion that is a good scary click-bait. Or as one comment on the article says: children were responsible for 1.27% of the spread of the disease (11 of 890 cases).

Or in other words, children represented 0.94% of the sample, but 1.27% of the spread.

And every infected child still infected less than one other person on average.

And every non-child infected less so. As you said, the lockdown was in place and schools were closed. Do you think the R value stays under 1 with no lockdown and open schools?

An odd issue in the study is that it spread more to work colleagues than to people you cohabit with; and only slightly less to contacts that were neither. Obviously work-places are a major concern - but that seems almost too much.

I would imagine that's because of prolonged immediate exposure in an enclosed environment. People are quite often seated much more closely to others and for longer periods of time in an office environment than even at home. Schools are more similar to the work environment, except more tightly packed and quite probably much more vocal, especially among the younger classes.

[Blur4stuff]

Looks like the virus train isn't gonna do much slowing down for the rest of the year. Kids are gonna spread this everywhere it hasn't already reached.

[TheramoreIsTheBomb]

wouldnt be shocked if trump replaces birx with Dr. Stella Emmanuel on the CTF

[Thepersona]

Anything new regarding vaccine research? Last time i heard, Sinovac, Oxford and , Pfizer? were in phase 3 trials, but not much after that.

[PhaelixWW]

Anything new regarding vaccine research? Last time i heard, Sinovac, Oxford and , Pfizer? were in phase 3 trials, but not much after that.

Phase 3 is the long-term one, with lengths normally measured in years. Any "quick" news is likely to be bad news for that specific trial.

[szechuan]

wouldnt be shocked if trump replaces birx with Dr. Stella Emmanuel on the CTF

Trumps personal Demon Sperm Doctor that also said hydroxychloroquine is a miracle drug and masks are not needed.

[cubby]

Since it's clear COVID-19 is going to be around until (hopefully) Biden is elected, his Secretary of Health and Human Service will be a key posting.

What Melinda Gates?

[Puupi]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/nova...age-trial.html

Stock tanks 32%

How do you have both "no serious" adverse events and 8 people hospitalized out of 131 with 25 placebo patients.

required two shots over 21 days, yikes.

Guess all these lottery bets on all these companies is starting to pan out badly for some.



Novavax said the vaccine was well tolerated with no serious adverse events reported. Most patients reported tenderness and pain at the injection after the first dose, with some patients also reporting headaches, fatigue or muscle aches. Only one participant in the trial experienced a mild fever after a second dose, the company said. Eight patients had reactions that required hospitalizations, though they were resolved after a few days

Probably by their standards anything that doesn't make your head fall straight off is not a serious adverse event.

[Forogil]

You completely and utterly ignored the first of the two studies in the linked source.

Because it takes time to track them down and understand them.
And for the first study I have already seen studies that indicate the exact opposite; so it's best to wait for a meta-analysis.
(The second study also contradicts earlier findings - but that's why click-baits like "new medical findings".)

Added: However, more importantly the first study isn't a study but a short "letter" - and the comments indicate several issues with the methodology including that the letter seem to contradict earlier findings - so it's still best to wait for a meta-analysis.

Which would seem to indicate that open schools would provide exponentially more child-to-child contact, exacerbating the findings of this study.

More and shallower contacts, and we haven't seen that schools spread it that much.

I don't think it odd that a child that is so sick that it shows obvious symptoms (we still don't know how many infected children were missed in the study) infects their caregiver in the home.

And every non-child infected less so. As you said, the lockdown was in place and schools were closed. Do you think the R value stays under 1 with no lockdown and open schools?

I know that it depends on the other interventions - which are anyway necessary; and that R can be below 1 in that case.

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As I said...not a good case to re-open schools. The only way schools should be re-opened is if it can be made safe to do so...and as you've just said:

The case for re-opening schools have already been made - assuming schools actually teach the students something, which admittedly is a big if when it comes to certain countries.

[Egomaniac]

The case for re-opening schools have already been made - assuming schools actually teach the students something, which admittedly is a big if when it comes to certain countries.

It's not a good case for reopening if it ends with "they'll probably mess it up".

[Forogil]

It's not a good case for reopening if it ends with "they'll probably mess it up".

You missed two important parts - there are schools outside of the US, and for the US "they'll probably mess it up" referred to both keeping schools closed and reopening schools, and also to any odd patchwork solution mixing the two.

[cubby]

You can fuck right off with this bullshit. We need professionals in these positions, not rich donors.

I love that you think Melinda Gates isn't a professional. Do you even know her C.V.?

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No, not really. You need people who have management skills and enough knowledge and common sense to be able to listen to experts.

Exactly. And think about all her experience and contacts. She could move fucking mountains....

[Egomaniac]

You missed two important parts - there are schools outside of the US, and for the US "they'll probably mess it up" referred to both keeping schools closed and reopening schools, and also to any odd patchwork solution mixing the two.

Well, the only way to mess up not opening schools...is to actually open the schools.

And when it comes to whether or not it's a good idea to open schools at all...that really comes down to the specific area. If there's a big outbreak in an area...don't open the schools there. If an area has been relatively free from outbreaks for a few weeks...then you can consider opening schools with a strategy that minimizes exposure risk to both children and teachers.

[Wezmon]

So you think Kim Kardashian should run HHS. Brilliant logic.

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Stupid question, but have either of you actually met the woman?

I dont know if KK counts as a skilled manager. Although in the current administration probably

But in general they are right, my wife worked her way up through an engineering/health and safety route, but now is high enough to get job offers from completely random industries (including medical), as at that level its just a matter of good management of resources. In the UK the cabinet minister for any given area will rarely be an expert in the field.

[cubby]

Yep, she’s donated a ton to good causes. She has zero medical education.

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Being a philanthropist doesn’t qualify her for the position. Sorry, but giving money to causes and having an MBA doesn’t qualify her to run HHS.

So at least we all know that you are just about utterly clueless about her experience. Thanks for embracing ignorance, I guess?

Melinda Gates runs a global foundation that specializes in medical solutions. She holds a degree in economics, and a master's in business administration, from Duke. And has spent the past twenty years working with the brightest minds in the world on medical and social topics.

But please, do go on about her "fuck all" of experience, it's adorable.

[Muzjhath]

So your wife gained experience in her field and rose to a level of prominence... exactly what I’m arguing for. As opposed to giving the job to some rando who gives money to the cause. Wanna add, when people are brought in as managers with 0 experience in a new field they’re generally the worst managers you can have. They don’t actually understand the job at hand and fuck everything up. If that’s what people want, go with Melinda Gates. If people want someone qualified, get a lifelong profession who understands how the system works and what needs fixing.

Except Melinda Gates did that. Yes she also married someone who also did that on a different scale.
But she still manages shit. That is heavily involved with health and safety on a global scale.

[cubby]

So your wife gained experience in her field and rose to a level of prominence... exactly what I’m arguing for. As opposed to giving the job to some rando who gives money to the cause. Wanna add, when people are brought in as managers with 0 experience in a new field they’re generally the worst managers you can have. They don’t actually understand the job at hand and fuck everything up. If that’s what people want, go with Melinda Gates. If people want someone qualified, get a lifelong profession who understands how the system works and what needs fixing.

The problem is that Melinda is neither of those things - she is a perfect hybrid. Came in from the top and has learned and gained enormously valuable experience, across the globe. And she has the educational background to embrace it.

And she knows everyone.

[Forogil]

Well, the only way to mess up not opening schools...is to actually open the schools.

or have the kids gather in other ways, or fail to understand that some children rely on schools for food as well, or ...

[Edge-]

or have the kids gather in other ways, or fail to understand that some children rely on schools for food as well, or ...

I mean...all these issues - access to the internet, serving meals etc. were known about and many school districts were addressing via delivery/pickup services and deploying city/school vehicles like buses to bring wifi to underserved areas. It was far from perfect or universal, but we saw those efforts as an immediate reaction.

There should have absolutely been federally pushed plans to expand these services nationally, with federal funding and assistance, with a plan to roll them out if it was looking like schools were unlikely to re-open.

But, again, we have a federal government in the US with no desire to lead or address the pandemic, so we're left with cash-strapped schools that are already grappling with contradictory and vague federal, state, and local guidance, struggling to create last-second miracles.

[Egomaniac]

or have the kids gather in other ways, or fail to understand that some children rely on schools for food as well, or ...

No, that's failing to provide for them in other ways...but the only way to fail not opening schools is to open schools.

Feeding the kids lunch if you're also exposing them to covid isn't looking out for their overall health. Even having the kids gather outside is still better than trapping them all in close proximity in a closed building for most of the day.