Bull Market officially over!! Year heading negative.

[Omega10]

A couple of comments:

Crude Oil has gone up a bit. It WAS fluctuating between 39 and 41. Now it is fluctuating between 40 and 43. Russia and Saudi Arabia are testing the waters for a bit higher prices. Then there was a headline of higher prices leading to a big increase in US shale production, and it dropped from 42+ to between 40 and 41.

The US made its position clear: if you let prices go up higher, we will take your market from you. Russia and Saudi Arabia read us loud and clear, and are acting accordingly. At least this is my current interpretation.

And:

https://qz.com/1870823/apple-is-wort...jors-combined/

Title: Apple is now worth more than the combined value of the oil and gas majors

Two things stand out hugely from this article:

Excerpt:

The oil and gas sector, once worth a combined $3 trillion, is now worth less than Apple’s $1.5 trillion market capitalization. If it wanted, the Cupertino, California technology company could purchase the world’s most expensive private oil and gas firm, ExxonMobil, for $198 billion with cash to spare.

Not much comment needed. Hi Tech for the win.

[Rasulis]

i stopped looking at the top 6 this week i refuse to waste brain power trying to figure it all out anymore

Go with the flow. Relax.

Next week will be interesting. We still have 75% of the S&P 500 to report their revenues. I don't think most of them will be near as good as the big 5. In fact, most will likely suck big time. I think that 32% GDP drop and 1.4 million first time unemployed and 30M unemployed nationwide will finally hit. The big tech blow out revenue cushioned the blow this week. There will be nothing to cushion the blow next week. Maybe the payroll report if it ended up being positive.

[Draco-Onis]

Go with the flow. Relax.

Next week will be interesting. We still have 75% of the S&P 500 to report their revenues. I don't think most of them will be near as good as the big 5. In fact, most will likely suck big time. I think that 32% GDP drop and 1.4 million first time unemployed and 30M unemployed nationwide will finally hit. The big tech blow out revenue cushioned the blow this week. There will be nothing to cushion the blow next week. Maybe the payroll report if it ended up being positive.

Nah the stock market decoupled with the real economy a while ago it's entirely reliant on the fed. If the stock market reflected reality it would have tanked worse than 2008 a long time ago because 150K people dead projected 250K by November with the worse economic numbers ever with things continuing to get worse. The market is not driven by reality anymore it's actually worse because we will be stuck in a world where the fed cannot take the foot off the gas ever.

[Rasulis]

Nah the stock market decoupled with the real economy a while ago it's entirely reliant on the fed. If the stock market reflected reality it would have tanked worse than 2008 a long time ago because 150K people dead projected 250K by November with the worse economic numbers ever with things continuing to get worse. The market is not driven by reality anymore it's actually worse because we will be stuck in a world where the fed cannot take the foot off the gas ever.

If you take out the FAAMG stocks, the market tanked and has yet to recover. It has all been about the FAAMG stocks. At this stage, it is getting harder and harder for them to lift the market. Apple, Amazon, FB added a cumulative of over 250B to the market on Friday, and the market barely budged.

[Zan15]

Go with the flow. Relax.

Next week will be interesting. We still have 75% of the S&P 500 to report their revenues. I don't think most of them will be near as good as the big 5. In fact, most will likely suck big time. I think that 32% GDP drop and 1.4 million first time unemployed and 30M unemployed nationwide will finally hit. The big tech blow out revenue cushioned the blow this week. There will be nothing to cushion the blow next week. Maybe the payroll report if it ended up being positive.

when you look at those numbers you see where the vast majority of the stimulus and spending went for 2Q....lol the rest had to fight for scraps
crazy too when you think about how many billions were not spent on oil/gas/ect. available to be spent on these 6.

[Draco-Onis]

If you take out the FAAMG stocks, the market tanked and has yet to recover. It has all been about the FAAMG stocks. At this stage, it is getting harder and harder for them to lift the market. Apple, Amazon, FB added a cumulative of over 250B to the market on Friday, and the market barely budged

If you compare this market behavior to the others even with FAAMG it's not normal, during most crashes all stocks tank regardless of revenue because of the greater economy. We are now near great depression territory economically and there's no panic because of the fed and on some level the trillions of dollars injected by the government. The stock market is basically on welfare it seems that a huge crash is impossible regardless of how bad the numbers get.

[Zan15]

Nah the stock market decoupled with the real economy a while ago it's entirely reliant on the fed. If the stock market reflected reality it would have tanked worse than 2008 a long time ago because 150K people dead projected 250K by November with the worse economic numbers ever with things continuing to get worse. The market is not driven by reality anymore it's actually worse because we will be stuck in a world where the fed cannot take the foot off the gas ever.

like he said ^^up there.... the stock market is matching the economy lock and step outside of just a handful of companies. Just most people look at the two most manipulated stock indexes ever...Dow/Nasdaq

[Draco-Onis]

like he said ^^up there.... the stock market is matching the economy lock and step outside of just a handful of companies. Just most people look at the two most manipulated stock indexes ever...Dow/Nasdaq

It's not because if it was without the FAAMG you would be looking at great depression performance and as I just stated if you look at past recessions revenues didn't matter fear was the driver.

[Rasulis]

It's not because if it was without the FAAMG you would be looking at great depression performance and as I just stated if you look at past recessions revenues didn't matter fear was the driver.

This is actually an interesting question. What is the difference between the 2000, 2008 and 2020 recessions? In 2000 and 2008 the market took a big beating, and did not recover for 2 – 3 years. Not so in 2020.

During all three recessions the Feds pumped money into the economy. Obviously the amounts differ. Although the magnitude of losses was less, the level of Fed's response during the 2008 recession dwarfed that of 2000. The current level of Fed's response makes their 2008 response look like chump changed.

Here are the two biggest differences.

The 2000 recession primarily affected the ultra wealthy. The middle and lower income classes barely felt the effect. The 2008 recession hit debt laden home owners the hardest. US homeownership never recovered. The current recession devasted the lower income and service industry class with surgical precision. California lay offs by income level in March is shown below. As you can see the workers with the most 401k and investment in the stock market are not affected as much. They now have extra money due to lower expenses (no vacations, no $4 Starbuck's, no gas, no eating out, no concerts, etc.). They need a place to put those extra money. The only option is the market.



Here is the biggest difference. In 2000 and 2008, the FAAMG stocks were a shadow of what they are now. Both in term of market influence, revenue and market cap. Apple is a perfect example. Apple market cap in 2000 was around 20B, 86B in 2008, and 1.842T in 2020. Quarterly revenue of around 2B in 2000, 7B in 2008, and as high as 92B in the last quarter of 2019. Facebook was a baby start up in 2008 and did not go public until 2013. Although Google has been around since late 90s, it also did not go public until 2013.

That last two factors are why the market has diverged so much from the general economic trend and the lack of fear factor in the market.

Random updates:

Over the weekend Apple's market cap jumped from 1.84T to 1.93T. It is down to 1.9T now. My bet is that the US will have its first 2T company by the end of August.

Microsoft stock also jumped on the news that they are buying Tik Tok. Just short of 90B up in a single day. US will likely have a second 2T company by the end of 2020.

Depending on Reels' reception, FB could break 1B by the end of 2020.

Docusign, up 212% YTD.

[Zan15]

yikes 60-90k robinhood'ers were piling into Kodak @30-40-60 dollars a share.

Now its down to 14 dollars with 94k accounts still holding from a peak of 130k

manipulated to hell and back again and these uneducated poor saps got stuck with the bill.

[Breccia]

yikes 60-90k robinhood'ers were piling into Kodak @30-40-60 dollars a share.

Now its down to 14 dollars with 94k accounts still holding from a peak of 130k

I guess we'll have to wait and...see what develops.

Okay, fine, I'll F-stop.

[kaid]

I guess we'll have to wait and...see what develops.

Okay, fine, I'll F-stop.

These puns are making me shutter.

[Zan15]

I guess we'll have to wait and...see what develops.

Okay, fine, I'll F-stop.

thank god I don't have photographic memory I will forget this bad attempt at humor!!

just keep up the good work don't lose focus!

a little harder and maybe you can develop a real funny one

[Rasulis]

Oil and gas trouble are not quite over yet.

Shale Driller Sells Gas Fields for 10th of What It Paid

Some Venture Capital news. US venture capital spending down by 5% for the 1st and 2nd quarters of 2020. Keep in mind that 2019 was a record breaking year for venture capital funding. All metro tech hubs venture capital spending were down. Except for 4 metro areas. Boston and San Diego hit record venture capital funding on the power of biotech and biomed. San Francisco and Silicon Valley also experienced record funding on biotech, biomed, telemedicine, work from home, cloud computing, AI and automation. Over 90% of venture capital funding in 2nd quarter 2020 went to these 4 metro areas. The pandemic has reversed 20 years effort of trying to spread venture capital funding to other regions.

Just as Houston is currently the Chapter 11 capital of the US, the Bay Area is the M&A capital of the US. Intuit acquired Credit Karma; Visa puchased Plaid; Salesforce bought Vlocity; Hellman Friedman bought Checkmarx; Apple acquired Dark Sky, Voysis, NextVR, Fleetsmith, Mobeewave; Facebook acquired Sanzaru, Giphy, Mappilary, Ready at Dawn; Google acquired AppSheet, Pointy, North and Fitbit (pending DoJ review); and Docusign acquired Seal and Liveoak.

Not a bad year for IPOs and start ups either. Sixty of the 95 US IPOs in 2020 are Bay Area companies. Including 5 “blank check” IPOs. Another 12 in the rest of CA for a total of 72 new IPOs in 2020 in CA. Which makes that 75% of US 2020 new IPOs.

[Breccia]

Oil and gas trouble are not quite over yet.

I haven't been checking, is this still Saudi/Russia tanking the prices or is that over?

[Rasulis]

I haven't been checking, is this still Saudi/Russia tanking the prices or is that over?

Nah. It is natural gas. US demand for electrical energy was at 30 year low. Which lead to lower demand for natural gas. Lower demand lead to lower price. Natural gas price is too low right now. It is also low in Asia and Europe, so exporting gas is not an option. it is just bad all over for oil & gas. The bad thing is flaring is now at all time high.

LNG future for August delivery ended up sold at 25-year low.

Some of the weirdest companies that have grown during this pandemic. My niece works at Nurx. According to her, their sales of contraceptive products have doubled since March. They also sell at home Covid-19 testing kit in partnership with Molecular Lab. That has been crazy popular also.

[Zan15]

Oil and gas trouble are not quite over yet.

Shale Driller Sells Gas Fields for 10th of What It Paid

.

almost cheaper to buy an gas field, then natural gas from our local supplier

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/stoc...-expected.html

The U.S. added 167,000 workers to private payrolls in July, according to the latest ADP data. The release came in far below expectations of 1 million.
This comes ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report out Friday.


But hey...the stock market is almost back to Feb highs...
cause.
reasons.

[Breccia]

The U.S. added 167,000 workers to private payrolls in July

This is a slow month in any context. Trump's average from Jan 2017 to Dec 2019 is 182k. As a reminder, Trump promised 25 million jobs. At the 2017-2019 rate, that'd take 137 months. At July's rate, 149 months. Both are longer than he could be in charge, even if he's someone else's VP and then kills them. And yes, that's ignoring the massive drop from this year.

Obama's average from Jan 2013 to Dec 2016 was 216k. It would have taken him 115 months.

EDIT: Oh, I've said several times that, for each Trump year of jobs, Obama had a better year of jobs. Trump ran against Obama's economy, saying he could to better. By 2019, he was in trouble. But now, Trump can also add that his worst year is worse than Obama's worst year, 2008, and his second worst year, 2009, combined, doubled.

There is no honest, numeric metric in which Trump outperforms Obama. Obama's dick is just bigger. End of story.

[Rasulis]

This is a slow month in any context. Trump's average from Jan 2017 to Dec 2019 is 182k. As a reminder, Trump promised 25 million jobs. At the 2017-2019 rate, that'd take 137 months. At July's rate, 149 months. Both are longer than he could be in charge, even if he's someone else's VP and then kills them. And yes, that's ignoring the massive drop from this year.

Obama's average from Jan 2013 to Dec 2016 was 216k. It would have taken him 115 months.

EDIT: Oh, I've said several times that, for each Trump year of jobs, Obama had a better year of jobs. Trump ran against Obama's economy, saying he could to better. By 2019, he was in trouble. But now, Trump can also add that his worst year is worse than Obama's worst year, 2008, and his second worst year, 2009, combined, doubled.

There is no honest, numeric metric in which Trump outperforms Obama. Obama's dick is just bigger. End of story.

All the industries backed by Trump have withered during his term in office. More coal power plants have closed since Trump’s inauguration than the entire 8 years of Obama’s presidency. More than 50 coal companies have been wiped out since Trump’s 2016 victory. There are currently less than 50,000 coal workers in the US. Down from 100,000 when Trump took over the helm of the country. I don’t think much more need to be said about oil and gas. The guy is just a bane for his friends and allies.

How about his enemies? NYT stock is up 350% since Trump won the election. Being mean to Trump has really paid off big time for fake news NYT.

[Breccia]

All the industries backed by Trump have withered during his term in office. More coal power plants have closed since Trump’s inauguration than the entire 8 years of Obama’s presidency.

Of all the industries, I think coal actually benefitted -- Trump helped them die slower. There was nothing he could do to stem the bleeding, but he did apply CPR.