Turns out $600 extra Unemployment does NOT stop people from going back to work.

[Shadowferal]

Lol bothsides ... i dunno how $600/week is extreme.

Anyways, today is a day to be grateful for Nancy Pelosi.
She made Mitch cave in out loud.

Speaker Pelosi suggested $600/week for federal benefits is her red line. Could that pass the Senate if POTUS wants it too?

McConnell, "It's something I’m prepared to support. Even if I have some problems with certain parts of it."

Mitch wants to cave in.

[Zan15]

Getting these threads mixed up...

Well, they want to agree on something in principle by the end of the week. From the gist of things both sides are stuck on extreme and neither wants to actually negotiate.

Translation: Lets find out which side constituents will scream the loudest at and blame next week.
...and it's only Tuesday.

LOL both sides, meanwhile one side has been working on this for months trying to get the other side to act.

but both sides man!!!

if 600 dollars is extreme what must the ridiculous republican/WH request be labeled as? is there even a word for how much more extreme it is???

[Shadowferal]

Yeah...not both sides...
Constituents
The one side is too busy lionizing George Flloyd when they're not bitching about covid19.
So..we have to rely on the other side, those that are outside McConnell's home demanding that he had better not touch that money.

Friday's deadline isn't going to happen.
And the one thing no one cares for is Trump issuing yet another EO to get it done. (Which I believe he's threatening to do)

[Zan15]

Yeah...not both sides...
Constituents
The one side is too busy lionizing George Flloyd when they're not bitching about covid19.
So..we have to rely on the other side, those that are outside McConnell's home demanding that he had better not touch that money.

Friday's deadline isn't going to happen.
And the one thing no one cares for is Trump issuing yet another EO to get it done. (Which I believe he's threatening to do)

Trump has no way to fund jack shit. His EO would so nothing.

[Hinastorm]

How about more studies? More data that points to the 600 not being anywhere near the main factor to people going back to work


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/rese...g-to-work.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/unem...ale-study.html



The Yale research showed that low wage workers and workers from states where unemployment benefits are lower — so those for whom the $600 supplement increased their total unemployment benefits by a bigger percentage — “did not experience larger declines in employment when the benefits expansion went into effect,” the report said.


“In fact, if anything, groups facing larger increases in benefit generosity experience slight gains in employment relative to the least-treated group by early May,” said the report.

Instead, the most important factor in whether people returned to work was the availability of jobs, according to Joseph G. Altonji, the Thomas DeWitt Cuyler Professor of Economics at Yale University, and Dana Scott, a graduate student and Ph.D. candidate at Yale’s economics department, who co-authored the report.

“While some people may have chosen not to look for work because of the generosity of [unemployment] benefits, the dominating factor in employment levels has been low labor demand,” they said

A growing body of research has shown no such correlation between boosted unemployment pay and people not returning to work. A Yale report published in July, for example, found that the extra $600 is not the primary reason people are, or are not, working. Rather, the most important factor in whether people returned to work was the availability of jobs.

While I admire your tenacity in linking facts to idiots, it's really time to retire doing that. They just call it fake, and you've wasted your time. I stopped long ago.

- - - Updated - - -

Really fucking sad that 30 million people are in limbo right now about 70-80% of their income. My household lost 4800 a month when the +600 ended, and the remaining "regular" unemployment won't even cover our rent on a tiny 2 bedroom apartment.

Maybe it's time to have less legislative breaks during the biggest event since WW2, and get this shit hammered out sooner.

[Shadowferal]

McConnell leaving it between dems and Trump

"You have a lot of conservative folks asking, 'What are we doing here? Is this really helpful? We're saddling the next generation and the next generation with huge debt,' " the lawmaker added.

"Considering where members are right now, it's a good thing for him to step back and let the members come to him. I don't think there would be anything to be gained if he were to go out on a limb and endorse this, this or this," the source added. "When you're riding at the point of the posse, you better check over your shoulder to see if the posse is still there. Otherwise, why take the first arrow?"

McConnell's goal has been to diffuse responsibility for getting a deal to the broader Senate Republican Conference, which has the dual benefit of letting GOP colleagues feel more involved while insulating himself from a potential backlash if the resulting bill sparks the anger of fiscal hawks.

I've never seen anything like this. Never," said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.).

"His caucus is hopelessly fractured. He realizes anything he supports will be opposed by half of his caucus and he's afraid of the consequences," he added.


- - - Updated - - -

Trump eyes weekend executive order if coronavirus relief talks stall

If Trump kicks in for the status quo, then he comes out smelling rosy until a formal deal is signed. It also throws shade on McConnell who has been taken heat from the Rand Paul side of the equation.
Whether it's actually legal...

[Edge-]

This is the part that really grinds my gears hard. We are in the middle of a pandemic and congress keeps taking these damn mini-vacations and won't get shit done.

That would require Republicans in the Senate to actually do something, and McConnell seems unmotivated to do that unless it comes to judicial appointments/court packing.

Because the Republican party has expressed zero interest in good faith governance as of the past decade+

[Shadowferal]

There are at least a dozen Republicans that would take dems' deal.
...that is if the dems give them shade to do so.

To be fair, the only one that can do without getting punched in the balls is Trump.

Constituents are subject to social psychology.

[Hinastorm]

Well the upcoming recess got postponed, props to anyone involved in that decision, about time.

Should of happened before we left 30 mil people in limbo over a majority of their income, though.

I keep hearing about how McConnell has "distanced" himself from the negotiations, or is barely involved. Why?

[Shadowferal]

I keep hearing about how McConnell has "distanced" himself from the negotiations, or is barely involved. Why?

Politics.
He's actually more aligned with the democrats but for the sake of wealthy donors he can't let himself get bludgeoned by being perceived as a poor conservative. (Rand Paul is the dickhead in this. He'll filibuster the bill unless McConnell can get 60 votes)
So...McConnel is letting Trump take the political hit.

[Edge-]

He's actually more aligned with the democrats

The fuck? Based on what?

[Shadowferal]

The fuck? Based on what?

You're either not paying attention, or politically ignorant.
Or borh.
Don't let current polling fool you. KY is a mess right now that will get worse the longer his own constituents are without money.

Seriously..why the fuck else did he not tank it all...(Grim Reaper remember), and instead allow the dems bills to hit the floor, and then, of all things let Trump do all the negotiating?
Think!
There are plenty of Republicans that would be happy with the dems bill if not for political considerations. The trick is to get those votes. And from the looks of things McConnell is letting Trump do all the talking.

[unfilteredJW]

You're either not paying attention, or politically ignorant.

You saying this is fucking hysterical.

[Shadowferal]

You saying this is fucking hysterical.

I believe you said that before.
And like now, could never back it up.

[unfilteredJW]

I believe you said that before.
And like now, could never back it up.

You know we can see your post history.

[Hinastorm]

I think he's talking about how Mitch doesn't seem to really mind extending the +$600, so he's not involved to save face.

Not that Mitch is secretly a democrat.

Unless I totally misunderstood.

[Zan15]

I think he's talking about how Mitch doesn't seem to really mind extending the +$600, so he's not involved to save face.

Not that Mitch is secretly a democrat.

Unless I totally misunderstood.

His state is so low on the income scale that 600 dollars extra would be like winning a small lottery.
I don't understand how he can not support this just out of re-election desire

Average wage was 920.
That would make unemployment pay would max out at 527.00

527 + 600 = 1127 - 920 = 207 extra a week.


oh no not 200 dollars a week. oh wait taxes.
so not 200 dollars a week.


That windfall.

btw maximum rate is $569 per week..... so a lot of people will never get back 100%+

- - - Updated - - -

ABOUT TIME this finally got published

https://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/unemp...130041861.html


The new paper, by Groundwork Collaborative’s Marokey Sawo and the National Employment Law Project’s Michele Evermore, similarly compares unemployment payments with what workers likely earned in their previous jobs, according to industry-level wage compensation data.

The big difference, however, is that the new paper includes non-wage benefits in its comparison, which amounted to 28% of unemployment claimants’ total work compensation on average.

“Our inclusion of non-wage compensation is driven by our concern that measures of wage compensation do not paint a complete picture of all that workers lose when they are laid off,” Sawo and Evermore write.

“Many workers lose more than just wages in unemployment ― they lose employer contributions to health insurance, paid leave, and retirement benefits as well.”


By their reckoning, 60% of unemployment claimants worked in industries where average total compensation exceeded what the former employees could receive in unemployment benefits.
“These individuals are likely receiving less, not more, in unemployment than they were in their former jobs, even after accounting for the $600 per week
benefits boost,” the paper says.

[Utinil]

“Many workers lose more than just wages in unemployment ― they lose employer contributions to health insurance, paid leave, and retirement benefits as well.”

This inclusion shows how they are trying to skew the numbers. One could argue that they are getting a large amount of "paid leave" right now.

[Felya]

This inclusion shows how they are trying to skew the numbers. One could argue that they are getting a large amount of "paid leave" right now.

Paid leave is chilling on the beach, not counting how long your savings can last.

[Zylos]

The fuck? Based on what?

I think what he means is that Mitch knows extra stimulus is needed by his state as well as many conservative states with (political) special emphasis on more centrist states that can flip left if not handled properly.
Mitch is essentially backed into a corner where the only real options are side with the dems (political suicide for many republicans at this point) against half of his party and actually help people, or side against the dems and dig the hole deeper which will lead to a more crippled economy (political suicide however over longer period of time).

Mitch has chosen the middle for now which is do nothing and hope for a better opportunity to present itself one way or the other.

Rand Paul is sort of a chaotic evil party in all of this as he is essentially calling republicans on their bullshit by sticking to a rhetoric that lets people suffer.