Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Felya]

-snip-

But, you also said it’s an average of all polling... you do understand what it means?

Can you not discuss my orgasms... I’m flattered that you think about me that way, but when would we have the time to date, with all these accounts you have to create? I don’t spread for no roses...



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I would follow the GOP's lead and vote for a corpse before trump.

Who knew that GOP is the party of “The American Pimp”? He should have debated OAC...

[eschatological]

Every day, I have to repeat to myself 10 times, "Twitter is not real," because holy shit is Twitter insane. The conservative side of Twitter today is insisting Biden lost "the black vote" with his comments yesterday, and that Trump is gonna win AT LEAST 20% of the black vote. Like, holy shit.

[omerome]

Every day, I have to repeat to myself 10 times, "Twitter is not real," because holy shit is Twitter insane. The conservative side of Twitter today is insisting Biden lost "the black vote" with his comments yesterday, and that Trump is gonna win AT LEAST 20% of the black vote. Like, holy shit.

They complain that they think Biden views the Black vote as a monolith, yet expect that same monolith to simply switch to the conversation side because, well reasons. They completely lack self-awareness.

And honestly, as someone who is both Black and Latino, while Biden should have definitely worded his statement differently, he's not completely wrong. Latinos share different views just like people across the country can be fans of the Los Angeles Lakers. And yet their political views will be completely different. Which is what he was trying to show, but explained poorly.

[segara82]

I wish they could make up their mind about starting the debates. Trump wants to have them earlier to get Biden (and his verbal slip-ups) into the limelight as well.

If it weren't so serious i'd get me some popcorn to enjoy the debate between these 2 incoherently rambling old guys.

[zealo]

Lets get serous, you would vote for a candidate who is running against Trump even if he drove one of these. lol!......

... why would you ever base your choice of preferred politician on what sort of car they drive?

[Milchshake]

For professional bed-wetters, people who dont understand polling, and others that can't abide good news. Look Away Now.


Estimated Biden polling margin in the national two-party popular vote (IE "if the election were held today, who would you vote for"):

Today: Biden +10.2
2 weeks ago: +9.6
1 month ago: +9.8
2 months ago: +6.6

[Zan15]

... why would you ever base your choice of preferred politician on what sort of car they drive?

because he's got nothing he can support trump on based on his record, so he has to make excuses for not voting for anyone else.....

[I Push Buttons]

Kanye West Indicates His Spoiler Campaign is Intended to Hurt Biden

Good luck with that, dipshit. Nobody who intended to vote before he threw his hat in the ring is suddenly going to change their vote from Biden to Kanye. Hell, he might actually get a few votes from Trump voters who were doing it just "for a troll".

Can the US please stop telling their children that "anyone can be President!" because a lot of the people trying are just fucking awful.

Seems silly to dismiss him being a threat as a spoiler given how close the election was in 2016. Remember, Trump only won because of a few tens of thousands of votes in three states.

I doubt this election will be as close, it will highly likely be a landslide for Biden barring some extremely damning thing happening to Biden before the election; but if it is close again, Kanye absolutely could sway mere tens of thousands of idiots in key states to vote for him which could have a massive impact.

[arandomuser]

trumpers dont consider russia a threat because they are white
i can easily admit russia china and iran are security threats
but right wingers insist russia * isnt* because they are "culturally similar"
yikes

[Benggaul]

Seems silly to dismiss him being a threat as a spoiler given how close the election was in 2016. Remember, Trump only won because of a few tens of thousands of votes in three states.

I doubt this election will be as close, it will highly likely be a landslide for Biden barring some extremely damning thing happening to Biden before the election; but if it is close again, Kanye absolutely could sway mere tens of thousands of idiots in key states to vote for him which could have a massive impact.

I'll repeat myself: NOBODY who had any intention of voting for Biden is going to suddenly change their mind and vote for Kanye. Nobody was going to vote for Biden as a lark. People are voting for Biden either because they agree with his policies or because they see him as the lesser of two evils in this race. I sincerely doubt anyone is going to look at Kanye, who is equally if not more fucked up than Trump mentally and say "Yeah, that's my guy!" The only people who are going to vote for him--in the handful of states he'll be allowed on the ballot at this point--are going to be people who weren't going to vote in the first place because they're apathetic and think this would be funny or the "lol, both sides!" bullshit artists who, again, weren't going to vote for Biden anyway.

[Ghostpanther]

... why would you ever base your choice of preferred politician on what sort of car they drive?

You wouldn't and nether will Rasulus. I wasn't being serous.

[Kaleredar]

For professional bed-wetters, people who dont understand polling, and others that can't abide good news. Look Away Now.


Estimated Biden polling margin in the national two-party popular vote (IE "if the election were held today, who would you vote for"):

Today: Biden +10.2
2 weeks ago: +9.6
1 month ago: +9.8
2 months ago: +6.6

As nice as those leads might be, we need to remember not to assume that he's won or encourage a sense of "don't worry, Biden's got this."

While not the only factors, I've no doubt that apathy and "Trump couldn't possibly win, I don't need to go vote" lead in part to Hillary's defeat.

[I Push Buttons]

I'll repeat myself: NOBODY who had any intention of voting for Biden is going to suddenly change their mind and vote for Kanye. Nobody was going to vote for Biden as a lark. People are voting for Biden either because they agree with his policies or because they see him as the lesser of two evils in this race. I sincerely doubt anyone is going to look at Kanye, who is equally if not more fucked up than Trump mentally and say "Yeah, that's my guy!" The only people who are going to vote for him--in the handful of states he'll be allowed on the ballot at this point--are going to be people who weren't going to vote in the first place because they're apathetic and think this would be funny or the "lol, both sides!" bullshit artists who, again, weren't going to vote for Biden anyway.

I think you underestimate just how stupid and gullible people can be and just how effective ads that appeal to their emotions can be.

Like just as an example, imagine Pennsylvania is as close this election as it was last election, IE: Biden and Trump within 40k-50k votes of each other (once again, I doubt it will be this close unless some extraordinary controversy emerges regarding Biden prior to the election)... Now imagine Kanye West takes what little money might be spent by his campaign and puts it into ads just in Philadelphia for a few days before the election... And those ads are specifically designed to appeal to the emotions of just black people and they are like "Biden crime bill this, Trump is racist that, etc." while emotional music plays and images of black kids and black families smiling as it explains why they should vote for Kanye West... You don't think that such a thing could sway some voters? Particularly so-called 'low information' voters? People who might have registered in some registration drive and are only voting for Biden because the people around them have convinced them to, not because they are particularly informed and have decided for themselves to vote for Biden.

Hell Kanye West himself/his campaign wouldn't even need to spend money... I am sure plenty of right leaning PACs would be more than happy to pay for ads like that in places like that right before the election.

[beanman12345]

As nice as those leads might be, we need to remember not to assume that he's won or encourage a sense of "don't worry, Biden's got this."

While not the only factors, I've no doubt that apathy and "Trump couldn't possibly win, I don't need to go vote" lead in part to Hillary's defeat.

Not to mention that poll specifically is talking about the popular vote, which is basically meaningless.

[DarkTZeratul]

Not to mention that poll specifically is talking about the popular vote, which is basically meaningless.

If it makes you feel better, 270 to win does their analysis by state and is also predicting a win for Biden, even if he loses every state they currently consider a toss-up:

https://www.270towin.com/

[Draco-Onis]

I think you underestimate just how stupid and gullible people can be and just how effective ads that appeal to their emotions can be.

Like just as an example, imagine Pennsylvania is as close this election as it was last election, IE: Biden and Trump within 40k-50k votes of each other (once again, I doubt it will be this close unless some extraordinary controversy emerges regarding Biden prior to the election)... Now imagine Kanye West takes what little money might be spent by his campaign and puts it into ads just in Philadelphia for a few days before the election... And those ads are specifically designed to appeal to the emotions of just black people and they are like "Biden crime bill this, Trump is racist that, etc." while emotional music plays and images of black kids and black families smiling as it explains why they should vote for Kanye West... You don't think that such a thing could sway some voters? Particularly so-called 'low information' voters? People who might have registered in some registration drive and are only voting for Biden because the people around them have convinced them to, not because they are particularly informed and have decided for themselves to vote for Biden.

Hell Kanye West himself/his campaign wouldn't even need to spend money... I am sure plenty of right leaning PACs would be more than happy to pay for ads like that in places like that right before the election.

in 2016 where we can all agree that Hillary Clinton had a more negative image than Biden only around 3% of black voters went third party. We are talking about the most favorable situation for Trump and that did not happen, the most Trump can hope for is voter suppression not Kanye since he pulls mostly from his base. The fact is Trump has spent the last 4 years energizing the black vote against him especially after his reaction to George Ffloyd even the low information voter is not going to waste their vote on Kanye when President white power is on the ballot.

That's not even going into the fact that Kanye has spend all this time praising Trump.

[beanman12345]

I think you underestimate just how stupid and gullible people can be and just how effective ads that appeal to their emotions can be.

Like just as an example, imagine Pennsylvania is as close this election as it was last election, IE: Biden and Trump within 40k-50k votes of each other (once again, I doubt it will be this close unless some extraordinary controversy emerges regarding Biden prior to the election)... Now imagine Kanye West takes what little money might be spent by his campaign and puts it into ads just in Philadelphia for a few days before the election... And those ads are specifically designed to appeal to the emotions of just black people and they are like "Biden crime bill this, Trump is racist that, etc." while emotional music plays and images of black kids and black families smiling as it explains why they should vote for Kanye West... You don't think that such a thing could sway some voters? Particularly so-called 'low information' voters? People who might have registered in some registration drive and are only voting for Biden because the people around them have convinced them to, not because they are particularly informed and have decided for themselves to vote for Biden.

Hell Kanye West himself/his campaign wouldn't even need to spend money... I am sure plenty of right leaning PACs would be more than happy to pay for ads like that in places like that right before the election.

He won't be on the Pennsylvania ballot, missed the deadline, oops. Missed the deadline for Michigan as well. Of the 4 states he'll actually be on the ballot, none of them are even at play. 1 is deep blue, the other red.

Also ask Bloomberg on how well spending your money on ads get people out to vote for ya.

[Omega10]

As nice as those leads might be, we need to remember not to assume that he's won or encourage a sense of "don't worry, Biden's got this."

While not the only factors, I've no doubt that apathy and "Trump couldn't possibly win, I don't need to go vote" lead in part to Hillary's defeat.

I agree. Enjoy the polls that are fun to check up on. This election is not in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

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I think you underestimate just how stupid and gullible people can be and just how effective ads that appeal to their emotions can be.

Like just as an example, imagine Pennsylvania is as close this election as it was last election, IE: Biden and Trump within 40k-50k votes of each other (once again, I doubt it will be this close unless some extraordinary controversy emerges regarding Biden prior to the election)... Now imagine Kanye West takes what little money might be spent by his campaign and puts it into ads just in Philadelphia for a few days before the election... And those ads are specifically designed to appeal to the emotions of just black people and they are like "Biden crime bill this, Trump is racist that, etc." while emotional music plays and images of black kids and black families smiling as it explains why they should vote for Kanye West... You don't think that such a thing could sway some voters? Particularly so-called 'low information' voters? People who might have registered in some registration drive and are only voting for Biden because the people around them have convinced them to, not because they are particularly informed and have decided for themselves to vote for Biden.

Hell Kanye West himself/his campaign wouldn't even need to spend money... I am sure plenty of right leaning PACs would be more than happy to pay for ads like that in places like that right before the election.

I strongly agree 100% with both statements, and with your scenario. And these issues WILL effect the election. Basically Biden need to win by enough that this kind of crap doesn't swing the election to Trump.

[Kaleredar]

I agree. Enjoy the polls that are fun to check up on. This election is not in the bag by any stretch of the imagination.

We’ve already seen that trump is prepared to try and obfuscate and delegitimize votes as much as possible to boot.

[Benggaul]

I think you underestimate just how stupid and gullible people can be and just how effective ads that appeal to their emotions can be.

Nope. Those people are already supporting Trump.