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  1. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by Malefic View Post
    At this point I am certain that the expansion will launch on either November 24th, December 1st or December 8th. Whenever it does launch, I'm also incredibly confident we're not raiding Castle Nathria this year. The above dates work with Blizzards timeline, specifically December 1st or December 8th, November 24th has a potential thanksgiving conflict, however the 2 December dates do not conflict - because the raid would be released after holidays.
    If we claim something is "impossible" due to it not fitting the prior, average schedule, then based on that logic November 24th release + Castle Nathria next year is impossible as well.

    Or when did we have more than 5 weeks between expansion release and raid opening? I think the average is way less than that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Malefic View Post
    Okay, let's put some data on this. All of the people calling for release dates in October need to understand why that's borderline an impossibilty:

    *snip*

    This gives us an average release date announcement to release date time of 90 days.
    Also, this whole average thing is pretty dumb argument. Since they've had release date to announcement windows of ~60 days before, the average means nothing when discussing whether something is possible or not. They have done it in the past - not on average - but they've done it. And they can do it again, no matter what the average is: when the sample is so small averages hardly give you any evidence - not to mention about saying something is possible/impossible.

    Finally, the world is tad bit different this day than it was during the last releases. I believe Covid-19 has made them more cautious, because if the situation gets worse they might not know how it will affect them.

    And just to be clear, I don't believe either in October release, I'm betting on November. But your argument is at fault, even though I kinda agree with you.
    Last edited by facefist; 2020-08-14 at 07:10 AM.

  2. #82
    Max Corruption on the cloak is September 8th. And that plus the ”Q4 release” are the only things officially stated right?

    So to me it would seem insane to get rid of corruption the same day you could reach max, instead it would make sense for Blizzard to let players play around with it for a month or so. Then pre-patch. So nov/dec is most likely imo, unless delayed by corona.

  3. #83
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kul View Post
    Max Corruption on the cloak is September 8th. And that plus the ”Q4 release” are the only things officially stated right?

    So to me it would seem insane to get rid of corruption the same day you could reach max, instead it would make sense for Blizzard to let players play around with it for a month or so. Then pre-patch. So nov/dec is most likely imo, unless delayed by corona.
    Max Corruption thing was decided way back months ago, even before the whole Corona thing blew up. It's about same level of wishful thinking like that brawl date, heck even more of a fishing in muddy waters that one.

    Not terribly relevant if you ask me, they probably just ballparked it, definitely not some sort of laser precise measurement ahead of time.

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Max Corruption thing was decided way back months ago, even before the whole Corona thing blew up. It's about same level of wishful thinking like that brawl date, heck even more of a fishing in muddy waters that one.

    Not terribly relevant if you ask me, they probably just ballparked it, definitely not some sort of laser precise measurement ahead of time.
    So in your opinion brawl date that points exactly at most likely release date (check my first post in this thread) is pure random number?

  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Ur drunk, go to sleep.

    Why I would not be surprised to see it releasing in December. Mid-October? Kekw... That ain't happening, son.
    ......PTR stays up for prepatch for 1month and releases on live 1 month and a few days later.
    "You know you that bitch when you cause all this conversation."

  6. #86
    Brewmaster Malefic's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kul View Post
    Max Corruption on the cloak is September 8th. And that plus the ”Q4 release” are the only things officially stated right?

    So to me it would seem insane to get rid of corruption the same day you could reach max, instead it would make sense for Blizzard to let players play around with it for a month or so. Then pre-patch. So nov/dec is most likely imo, unless delayed by corona.
    The other thing officially stated was "You have our commitment we will be releasing Shadowlands this fall, even if we end up shipping it from our homes". This was stated in the beta reveal video early in July, https://www.twitch.tv/videos/673613421?t=0h17m5s you can see that here.

    Fall to clarify is between September 22nd and December 21st.

    I also agree with your comment regarding corruption max resistance - something Blizzard will most likely allow players to play about with for a period of time before removing it. I would imagine this period of time to be about a month.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dracullus View Post
    So in your opinion brawl date that points exactly at most likely release date (check my first post in this thread) is pure random number?
    The brawl points to a Monday. Expansions historically release in the evening of Tuesdays (Midnight Wednesday in Europe). Yes, this is more than likely not necessarily a pure random number, but a number far enough in the distance it doesn't cause issues before things have been decided, such as a Brawl rotation. Even if the brawl wasn't indicative of a release date, but instead the start of a season of some sorts, again, it's still a Monday.
    Last edited by Malefic; 2020-08-14 at 10:08 AM.

  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Malefic View Post
    The brawl points to a Monday. Expansions historically release in the evening of Tuesdays (Midnight Wednesday in Europe). Yes, this is more than likely not necessarily a pure random number, but a number far enough in the distance it doesn't cause issues before things have been decided, such as a Brawl rotation. Even if the brawl wasn't indicative of a release date, but instead the start of a season of some sorts, again, it's still a Monday.
    No, brawl points to 1st December, it was posted already past NA reset. In WoW every cooldown is rounded to lower number, for example 6 days 23 hours cooldown still shows "6 days". And 10th November (3 weeks before brawl) is most likely date, literally only November/December date that both fits usual schedule and avoid Thanksgiving/Christmas. That would be hell of coincidence.

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by Malefic View Post
    The other thing officially stated was "You have our commitment we will be releasing Shadowlands this fall, even if we end up shipping it from our homes". This was stated in the beta reveal video early in July, https://www.twitch.tv/videos/673613421?t=0h17m5s you can see that here.

    Fall to clarify is between September 22nd and December 21st.

    I also agree with your comment regarding corruption max resistance - something Blizzard will most likely allow players to play about with for a period of time before removing it. I would imagine this period of time to be about a month.

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    The brawl points to a Monday. Expansions historically release in the evening of Tuesdays (Midnight Wednesday in Europe). Yes, this is more than likely not necessarily a pure random number, but a number far enough in the distance it doesn't cause issues before things have been decided, such as a Brawl rotation. Even if the brawl wasn't indicative of a release date, but instead the start of a season of some sorts, again, it's still a Monday.
    Timing works out way better if it's two weeks instead of a month. I'm betting sept 8th will be your two week warning.
    Last edited by Cyranis; 2020-08-15 at 03:45 PM.

  9. #89
    Anyone thinking the expansion will release in October has sniffed too much glue

  10. #90
    The Patient Rayzen17's Avatar
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    Using EU dates.
    PTR Pre-patch started this week.
    Cloak resist is capped at 9th of September.
    Blizzard won't just simply bring the PTR to Live on the day we cap corruption, since logically there would be no point in having it cap then, because we couldn't benefit from the cap.
    4 Weeks of PTR Pre-patch would bring it to 9th of September.
    1 week at cap seems to little, 2 weeks seems more appropriate.
    6 Weeks PTR Pre-patch lines up with the 2 week cap usage.

    The PTR Pre-patch probably won't last more than 6 weeks.


    As such Magic 8ball says:
    Pre-patch hits Live on the 23rd of September
    If Pre-patch lasts 1 month then 21st of October is the day Shadowlands hits live.
    If Pre-patch lasts 6 weeks then 4th of November is the day Shadowlands hits live.

    Maybe it'll be 5 weeks, making the date 29th of October, right near Halloween, which would be fitting.

    Releasing on 4th of November means that there will be 3 weeks until Thanksgiving which will be on the 26th of November this year.
    So this is plenty of time to level and open the raiding season.

  11. #91
    @Malefic You are basing your prediction on the release date announcement.

    If one were to use beta length as the metric, your dates make this beta last longer than all but 2 betas.

    Depending on which data and dates you want to use, you can make it fit a wide range of scenarios. There a flaws in all of them.
    #TeamTinkers

  12. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lucetia View Post
    If you exclude this week then yes, others know. August 11, 18, 25 and September 1st are the four weeks placing the 5th week that it would launch (as they said) on the 8th.
    August 11th (pre- patch PTR LAUNCH DAY) to august 18 is one week / 7 days.
    The 18th to the 25th is 2 weeks / 14 days.
    The 25th to the first of September is 3 weeks / 21 days.
    The first of September to the 8th of September is 4 weeks / 28 days.

    an extra week would put the date at September 15th... Like i originally said.

    You okay, bud?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by IndCold View Post
    Oct 20 would put mythic raid opening one week before Thanksgiving, you could argue the first raid is usually cleared in the first week but they've never released the highest difficulty of a raid one week before Thanksgiving or Christmas.

    For it to be an October release date it would have to be 10/06 or 10/13 at the latest.
    Good point. 10/13 is viable assuming there is 4 weeks flat of pre patch. There were exactly 4 weeks between BFA pre patch and launch.

    BFA pre patch july 17th
    BFA launch august 14th

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Tiberria View Post
    This is incorrect.

    BFA - Pre-patch to PTR June 18, Expansion release August 14 - 8 weeks of PTR
    Legion - Pre-patch to PTR June 18, Expansion release August 30 - 10.5 weeks of PTR
    WoD - Pre-Patch to PTR September 15, Expansion release November 13 - 8 weeks of PTR

    It isn't a month of pre-patch PTR - it's consistently around 2 months, and then a month of pre-patch before the expansion release. October is all but out of the question, especially since they haven't announced a release date, and announced a date less than 3 months out for each of the previous 2 expacs. We are looking at around mid-November.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Pre-patch PTR has been 8+ weeks for each of the last 3 expansions. You literally have to go 4 expansions and 8 years in the past to find the last time the pre-patch PTR lasted less than 8 weeks (5 weeks in MoP).
    Thats fair. We've also always had a hard release date by or in most cases BEFORE the pre patch ptr goes live.
    Last edited by Recovery; 2020-08-18 at 02:44 PM.

  13. #93
    It'll either be very early December or late October. It won't be November unless the 30th. They'll want to generate as much hype as possible without other things drawing away from it due to potential sales loss and you know Blizzard when it comes to money. It won't release November 3rd due to US election getting attention, which equates to less hype for game which is sales lost. 10th is as possible as November gets, but it puts the first raid during holiday season, since they aren't waiting more than 2 months before starting the first season. Rest of month = Cyberpunk drawing attention away. Late October, like the 20th or 27th makes a lot of a sense timing-wise. It may seem like the game may not be finished by then, but timing windows are far more important to the company and investors than finished game state. This isn't Warcraft 3 Reforged, that's merely a small cash-in compared to Blizzard's bread and butter

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by Nize View Post
    It'll either be very early December or late October. It won't be November unless the 30th. They'll want to generate as much hype as possible without other things drawing away from it due to potential sales loss and you know Blizzard when it comes to money. It won't release November 3rd due to US election getting attention, which equates to less hype for game which is sales lost. 10th is as possible as November gets, but it puts the first raid during holiday season, since they aren't waiting more than 2 months before starting the first season. Rest of month = Cyberpunk drawing attention away. Late October, like the 20th or 27th makes a lot of a sense timing-wise. It may seem like the game may not be finished by then, but timing windows are far more important to the company and investors than finished game state. This isn't Warcraft 3 Reforged, that's merely a small cash-in compared to Blizzard's bread and butter
    Wrath of the Lich King and Warlords of Draenor were both released mid-November, just saying.

  15. #95
    October 20 or 27 makes the beta the shortest beta except BC.
    #TeamTinkers

  16. #96
    These SL release date threads all remind me of Pepe Sylvia.



    Anyway, December 8th or 15th.

  17. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by Recovery View Post
    August 11th (pre- patch PTR LAUNCH DAY) to august 18 is one week / 7 days.
    The 18th to the 25th is 2 weeks / 14 days.
    The 25th to the first of September is 3 weeks / 21 days.
    The first of September to the 8th of September is 4 weeks / 28 days.

    an extra week would put the date at September 15th... Like i originally said.

    You okay, bud?

    - - - Updated - - -



    Good point. 10/13 is viable assuming there is 4 weeks flat of pre patch. There were exactly 4 weeks between BFA pre patch and launch.

    BFA pre patch july 17th
    BFA launch august 14th

    - - - Updated - - -



    Thats fair. We've also always had a hard release date by or in most cases BEFORE the pre patch ptr goes live.
    Historical data far back as a month or two ago was making November 3rd/10th, and Dec 1st/8th looking like the most likely release candidates. My prediction was Nov 3rd or 10th, with 3rd being my primary and 10th my secondary. The most recent data with the PTR, etc make December even less likely and November 10th the most likely candidate with November 3rd being an optimistic date. We have to think they will want some time between an expansion launch and the Thanksgiving holiday to work out whatever ends up being wrong. There are always issues when these things go live that have to be ironed out, and SL will be no different.

    You have to think a release date announcement is close at this point.

  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by Deferionus View Post
    Historical data far back as a month or two ago was making November 3rd/10th, and Dec 1st/8th looking like the most likely release candidates. My prediction was Nov 3rd or 10th, with 3rd being my primary and 10th my secondary. The most recent data with the PTR, etc make December even less likely and November 10th the most likely candidate with November 3rd being an optimistic date. We have to think they will want some time between an expansion launch and the Thanksgiving holiday to work out whatever ends up being wrong. There are always issues when these things go live that have to be ironed out, and SL will be no different.

    You have to think a release date announcement is close at this point.
    Yeah. I'm still banking on my original guess of November 17th but I can buy the arguments for the 3rd and 10th as well (even though it hurts because 11/17 as a prediction still assumed they are rushing). Guess we'll see soon enough.

  19. #99
    Herald of the Titans Amaterasu65's Avatar
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    Shouldn't we have an expansion release date by now if it's coming on October?

    Does anyone remember past practices, like, how much ahead were the previous expansion release dates announced?

  20. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by Rayzen17 View Post
    snip
    There is no point in capping it at all...



    You all base information on post-pandemic times. Everything is different now. No previous dates can be used as a rough estimate.

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