1. #18361
    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-53886479
    "Hong Kong scientists report the first confirmed case of an apparently healthy patient being re-infected with Covid-19, four months after the first infection"
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/w...ronavirus.html

    Not good, but both infections were mild; and it seems the immune system is triggered more after serious infections and the 2nd was without any symptoms - making it likely that the immune system at least partially stopped the 2nd infection.
    Last edited by Forogil; 2020-08-24 at 03:28 PM.

  2. #18362
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-53886479
    "Hong Kong scientists report the first confirmed case of an apparently healthy patient being re-infected with Covid-19, four months after the first infection"
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/w...ronavirus.html

    Not good, but both infections were mild; and it seems the immune system is triggered more after serious infections and the 2nd was without any symptoms - making it likely that the immune system at least partially stopped the 2nd infection.
    From what I saw, there were no antibodies for the first infection. As of now, this is an outlier, but it does warrant further study.

  3. #18363
    Over 9000! PhaelixWW's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    Washington (né California)
    Posts
    9,029
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    If you want to use your own definitions "statistically demonstrative" or "significantly demonstrative", fine, as long as you actually define them.
    I mean, you're literally ignoring the fact that I've clarified it several times now, including in the post you just quoted. It was defined long before you involved yourself.


    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    "Hong Kong scientists report the first confirmed case of an apparently healthy patient being re-infected with Covid-19, four months after the first infection"
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/w...ronavirus.html

    Not good, but both infections were mild; and it seems the immune system is triggered more after serious infections and the 2nd was without any symptoms - making it likely that the immune system at least partially stopped the 2nd infection.
    This is not really meaningful until you have a decent amount of reinfections. If the rate of reinfection is 1 in a million, then it suggests that the problem is with those people's immune systems, not the general nature of the virus. That being said, we should all continue to observe safety measures even after recovery and assume that it's at least possible that we could still be carriers of the virus even if not made sick by it again.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  4. #18364
    Bloodsail Admiral
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Mar 2014
    Location
    Industrial heart of the USSR... now torn apart
    Posts
    1,122
    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    It seems the world as a whole has peaked. My earlier point about 3% cases soft cap remains true, Qatar is still the only country to go past it, and for understandable reasons. I expect some US states go past 3% ("because they test more" :| ), but whether any other state-level entity besides Qatar will break 4% cases within 2020, remains to be seen. I guess they'd have to increase testing for that.
    As we can see on Worldometers, the last day when global 7-day rolling average grew rapidly was July 25th. After that, cases crawled to a peak on July 31, then fell by 2.5% in early August. According to @PhaelixWW, it was too small of a fluctuation, fine, I'll agree and will call it still flat.

    After a week of small decline we had a week of small increase, the original peak was proven to be local and on August 14 was exceeded by 1.1% which is even more negligible than the -2.5% valley between the twin peaks. So it was definitely still flat then.

    After that, from 14/8 to 21/8 average global cases fell from 263795 to 247649, which is 6.5% -- is this "demonstrative evidence of a peak" or still not yet? Do we call the entire late July to mid August period Twin Peaks or just a wide single one? You can also stretch and say that from 26/7 to 21/8 average cases only fell 2.8% in 26 days, so it's still not statistically demonstrative, right? cases are still flat.

    Which was exactly my point in the original quoted post, and remains true. Daily cases have peaked and are not growing anymore, it happened a month ago. Your goalpost is checkmated.

    Now, was this the final peak? Who knows, with back-to-school cases could pick up again. Or "global south" could start testing better and we would see more registered cases. Or the second wave could come in winter... But for now, normal people have good news and fearmongers are busted.
    Fun fact: single-day record for new cases on Worldometers was in July.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobleshield View Post
    It's not 2004. People have lives, jobs, families etc

  5. #18365
    The Undying Breccia's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    NY, USA
    Posts
    39,906
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    "Hong Kong scientists report the first confirmed case of an apparently healthy patient being re-infected with Covid-19, four months after the first infection"
    I hope this turns out to be in error. But we've seen reports of "antibodies last three months" before.

  6. #18366
    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    I hope this turns out to be in error. But we've seen reports of "antibodies last three months" before.
    We have also that a significant percentage do not develop detectable levels anti-bodies at all; especially after weak infections.

    The immune system consists of more than anti-bodies, and even if we cannot detect anti-bodies in the blood after three months that doesn't rule out that they have memory B-cells (that typically last for decades) that can restart the production if needed.

  7. #18367
    The Undying Breccia's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    NY, USA
    Posts
    39,906
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    We have also that a significant percentage do not develop detectable levels anti-bodies at all; especially after weak infections.
    So...kids?

  8. #18368
    Quote Originally Posted by Machismo View Post
    From what I saw, there were no antibodies for the first infection. As of now, this is an outlier, but it does warrant further study.
    It's an outlier in terms of reinfection - but not in terms of lack of antibodies after mild infections.

    I can't remember the exact number - but I believe it was at least 10% in one study (and they also lost it more quickly) - so getting an anti-body test to see if that light infection back in April was covid-19 will not work reliably.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Breccia View Post
    So...kids?
    Adults as well, as far as I understand.

  9. #18369
    https://wsvn.com/news/local/judge-ru...e=twitter_wsvn

    “The Order is unconstitutional to the extent it arbitrarily disregards safety, denies local school boards decision making with respect to reopening brick and mortar schools, and conditions funding on an approved reopening plan with a start date in August,” the ruling reads.
    And the Florida Education Commissioner's EO requiring schools to reopen has been ruled illegal, thankfully.

    Thank goodness the courts are here to attempt to restrain Ron DeSantis and his state government from continuing to try to be the leading cause of death for Floridians in the year 2020.

  10. #18370
    Over 9000! PhaelixWW's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Location
    Washington (né California)
    Posts
    9,029
    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    As we can see on Worldometers, the last day when global 7-day rolling average grew rapidly was July 25th. After that, cases crawled to a peak on July 31, then fell by 2.5% in early August. According to @PhaelixWW, it was too small of a fluctuation, fine, I'll agree and will call it still flat.
    Wow. Even called out about it, you still persist in the same bullshit strawman. I'll reiterate my response in the hopes that maybe you'll actually actually comprehend it this time:
    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    Womp womp. Looks like another one of your reading comprehension failures. Your sad strawman argument is meaningless in light of the fact that I made no such statement.

    So you're just making things up... again... to push your failed position.
    You can keep wrongly attributing statements to me and I'll just keep pointing out your lack of comprehension. Deal? Deal.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    After that, from 14/8 to 21/8 average global cases fell from 263795 to 247649, which is 6.5% -- is this "demonstrative evidence of a peak" or still not yet?
    Noooope.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Which was exactly my point in the original quoted post, and remains true. Daily cases have peaked and are not growing anymore, it happened a month ago. Your goalpost is checkmated.
    It's really cute that you think you've proved something when you haven't. Daily cases have not peaked yet.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Now, was this the final peak? Who knows, with back-to-school cases could pick up again.
    I will remind you, since you seem to forget things easily, that a wave can only have one peak. If cases pick up again with kids going back to school, and while we're still in a first wave, then by definition the cases never peaked. Certainly not just because you declared it preemptively.


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    But for now, normal people have good news and fearmongers are busted.
    Your argument was literally that the daily case count has been what you call "flat" for a month, at what you call the "peak" rate... and you consider that good news? Holding steady at the highest rate?

    Aren't you worried that that makes you sound like a sociopath?


    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    Fun fact: single-day record for new cases on Worldometers was in July.
    Fun fact: people really don't judge by single-day reports; that is, after all, why we've been talking about the 7-day rolling average this whole time. The only reason you're attempting to use different goalposts is because the 7-day record (so far) was on 8/14, not 7/31.

    It's obvious to everyone that you're just stretching to try to make your argument sound more believable. That's also why you said "in July" instead of being more specific about the date (7/31) because you think people are gullible enough to think that it sounds like longer ago.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  11. #18371
    https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-53892856

    Brian Lee Hitchens and his wife, Erin, had read claims online that the virus was fabricated, linked to 5G or similar to the flu.

    The couple didn't follow health guidance or seek help when they fell ill in early May. Brian recovered but his 46-year-old wife became critically ill and died this month from heart problems linked to the virus.

    Brian spoke to the BBC in July as part of an investigation into the human cost of coronavirus misinformation . At the time, his wife was on a ventilator in hospital.
    In which conspiracy theorists and right wing grifters allowed to spread misinformation through social media caused a foolish couple to not take the virus seriously, leading to both of them getting it and the wife dying.

    "If you have to go out please use wisdom and don't be foolish like I was so the same thing won't happen to you like it happened to me and my wife," he wrote.
    Listen to the people that have lost loved ones. Protect yourself. Protect others. Don't be a dummie.

  12. #18372
    To clarify for the ones that care about using words in the common way:

    https://cnnphilippines.com/world/202...ronavirus.html
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NpJdEWMqTd0
    “When they've come off the peak of the first wave, but they haven't reduced the disease down and they're in a steady state where they're struggling to reduce the incidence of the disease, and then they get a second peak,” Ryan said. During a second peak, community transmission is still occurring, he added.

    “You may have a second peak within your first wave. And then you may have a second wave. It's not either or,” Ryan warned.

    https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-covid-1...-official-says
    "Turkey at second peak of first COVID-19 wave, senior medical official says"

  13. #18373
    Yes, the US never supressed their amount of cases enough to call the first wave having ended.
    (seen across the entire US, you can probably call it ended for specific states)
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  14. #18374
    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    Cases are going up in France with 4500 new cases diagnosed this week-end.
    True, and it seems it is not only around Paris - but also some other cities and regions. As I understand some are still on vacations in France - and I don't know what will happen when everyone is back in their offices; there are not enough space for cars and physical distancing in public transports seem impossible. (It seems most restrictions are lifted.)

    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    And we have 3 millions cases diagnosed in India (which are, imo, totally under evaluated and the true number is far far higher).
    Well, at least the new daily cases seem to be increasing more slowly - even if they are still increasing. Some of the slum areas seem to have reached herd immunity, like Mumbai, - and I haven't seen any recent stories about overcrowding in hospitals (so perhaps down to two persons per bed); or because it's from places I haven't heard of like Bihar.

  15. #18375
    https://www.charlotteobserver.com/ne...245190785.html

    N.C. State reported three new COVID-19 clusters Monday afternoon in a campus-wide alert, including one within the university’s atheltic department.

    The clusters were reported in Carroll Residence Hall, the Standard Apartment Complex and N.C. State Athletics, though the school says not all of the positive cases are student-athletes.

    Carroll Residence Hall is the first N.C. State dorm to report a cluster.

    As N.C. State moved all of its undergraduate classes online Monday, the school announced 146 new coronavirus cases in recent days.
    BuT it'S SaFE To go bACk to SchOoL

    And they can't even argue that they need to be there in-person so they can develop social skills like they do with younger kids. This is just stupidity and recklessness.

  16. #18376
    The Baltic wonder bubble seems to be failing, as only Latvia still has reasonable numbers (and those are up too on the average), while they have grown in Estonia and Lithuania is starting to look especially bad (obvious reminder that our populations are small, so say 40 new cases per day in Lithuania is huge for us).
    Most of the cases are from people coming back from vacations from places like Germany.
    You fucking morons, was it THAT hard to not go somewhere for one year?! Could have traveled accross Baltics, but nooooo, gotta go to big infected countries -.-
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

  17. #18377
    The Insane Masark's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Canada
    Posts
    17,970
    https://abc3340.com/news/local/unive...ince-last-week

    Five Hundred and Sixty-Six Cases In Just Four Fucking Days Of Classes.

    And all of these people were tested and were negative before classes started.

    Warning : Above post may contain snark and/or sarcasm. Try reparsing with the /s argument before replying.
    What the world has learned is that America is never more than one election away from losing its goddamned mind
    Quote Originally Posted by Howard Tayler
    Political conservatism is just atavism with extra syllables and a necktie.
    Me on Elite : Dangerous | My WoW characters

  18. #18378
    Quote Originally Posted by Masark View Post
    https://abc3340.com/news/local/unive...ince-last-week

    Five Hundred and Sixty-Six Cases In Just Four Fucking Days Of Classes.

    And all of these people were tested and were negative before classes started.
    It's incredible to me that there are countries with less daily cases of coronavirus than some American Universities.

  19. #18379
    The Unstoppable Force Puupi's Avatar
    15+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Finland
    Posts
    23,388
    Quote Originally Posted by Masark View Post
    https://abc3340.com/news/local/unive...ince-last-week

    Five Hundred and Sixty-Six Cases In Just Four Fucking Days Of Classes.

    And all of these people were tested and were negative before classes started.
    University of Alabama has more cases in 4 days than Finland has had in 4 months.
    Quote Originally Posted by derpkitteh View Post
    i've said i'd like to have one of those bad dragon dildos shaped like a horse, because the shape is nicer than human.
    Quote Originally Posted by derpkitteh View Post
    i was talking about horse cock again, told him to look at your sig.

  20. #18380
    Titan Yunru's Avatar
    10+ Year Old Account
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    The Continent of Orsterra
    Posts
    12,391
    Some histroy:

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •