Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Forogil]

My recent post made me ponder a question: How bad is it in Peru?

Peruvian excess deaths to end of July were 180% more than covid-deaths, which indicate severe under-counting and Peru is still 2nd in per capita covid-deaths after the tiny state of San Marino. Assuming the under-reporting remained (and was actually covid-deaths - it could also be a general health-system collapse) Peru has 82k deaths covid-deaths, or 0.25% of the population.

Lockdown from March 16th, with gradual opening since June/July (followed by somewhat increasing number of cases). However, lockdown don't work well if you have neither refrigerators nor Uber Eats (or similar).

Masks mandatory since March 17th; but likely many masks are non-reusable masks being reused.

Anyone know more?

[Nellise]

My recent post made me ponder a question: How bad is it in Peru?

It might be a problem with elevation. Peru has a large amount of people living at high elevations which can't be good with a respiratory disease. That could be a factor in several of the South American countries having issues. Bolivia and Colombia also have a lot of people living high up. Peru and Bolivia have 9 of the the 11 highest cities (over 10,000 feet elevation) with over 100k population.

[Forogil]

It might be a problem with elevation. Peru has a large amount of people living at high elevations which can't be good with a respiratory disease. That could be a factor in several of the South American countries having issues. Bolivia and Colombia also have a lot of people living high up.

But reports claim lower rates of infection at high altitudes in Peru; and Bolivia and Colombia report less than half the number of cases per capita compared to Peru (don't know about excess deaths).

[Cynep]

Yeah. I can explain the European spike, they were all caught with their pants down when it started. I can explain Persian Gulf spike, they all have tons of foreign workers living in subpar conditions. But why does entire Latin America have high numbers now, what do they all have in common? Argentina doesn't really have cities at high elevation.

[Forogil]

Yeah. I can explain the European spike, they were all caught with their pants down when it started. I can explain Persian Gulf spike, they all have tons of foreign workers living in subpar conditions. But why does entire Latin America have high numbers now, what do they all have in common?

The most obvious explanation would be susceptible population (i.e., people not yet infected), cities, and that they actually test.

The reason we see it now and not earlier is likely that there was less travel from China to Latin America early on, and many of them had early lockdowns that slowed down the spread.

I would say that the part of the world that is difficult to explain is actually Africa (although a young population helps). Clearly the cases are under-reported (a lot), but the numbers are going down and there hasn't been that much talk about overcrowded morgues and hospitals.

[Gorsameth]

Yeah. I can explain the European spike, they were all caught with their pants down when it started. I can explain Persian Gulf spike, they all have tons of foreign workers living in subpar conditions. But why does entire Latin America have high numbers now, what do they all have in common? Argentina doesn't really have cities at high elevation.

less wealthy countries with less social security nets and less resources to implement measures.

Lots of Manual labour who can't work from home or can't afford to not go to work.

I don't think Latin America having high numbers is shocking, them not having high numbers would be much more shocking.

[PhaelixWW]

US did pass Sweden in Deaths/1m pop, and Sweden have a very low number of deaths now (looking at the trend, not individual days) Time to give Sweden some recognition of there course of action. It was always a marathon and not a sprint.

Using the US response to the coronavirus as a measuring stick of success is not the "recognition" you want...

[Zantos]

Studies are contradictory. Some show promise, some don't. And it's probably worth noting that given the time table we're operating on, no drug will have the time to go through the proper tests, vaccines included. Steps had to be taken at a legislatory level in order to make sure that they wouldn't have to go through the "proper tests". If we were to stick to the non-emergency timetables, we'd have to wait three or four times more for the vaccines. Evidently we can't wait that much.

Again though, the problem comes back full swing like in my first reply to you. If we rush,w e risk causing far more deaths or problems. I get people want this fast, but we can't do fast unless they recognize that it will be untested, unproven and unverified for any level of safety. Then the governments would need to accept the fact that people aren't going to take an untested, new and essentially experimental drug with the alternative is something they may not catch and have a very high rate of surviving.

[Coolthulhu]

Again though, the problem comes back full swing like in my first reply to you. If we rush,w e risk causing far more deaths or problems. I get people want this fast, but we can't do fast unless they recognize that it will be untested, unproven and unverified for any level of safety. Then the governments would need to accept the fact that people aren't going to take an untested, new and essentially experimental drug with the alternative is something they may not catch and have a very high rate of surviving.

It's not being used as a blanked treatment here, but it's been instrumental in getting a lot of people out of the ICU. Further testing is needed, obviously, that much is not being questioned. And when someone's literally dying to an interstitial pneumonia, you do throw everything you have at it. It's called expanded access or compassionate use depending on which side of the Atlantic you're from and it's been widespread during the pandemic worldwide - and instrumental in making progress.
Nobody is suggesting to skip the unskippable aside from politicians and people who understand nothing of the matter, which is why I've always been extremely skeptical of announced vaccine availability predictions - and thus far I've never been wrong, as the dates get inevitably pushed forward.

[PACOX]

I thought people had learned to live with this virus in the wild. At least that it would plateau and we would not have to worry about spikes. People need to relax.

Wear your masks, distance, don't linger, and we can live at a 70% pre-Covid normal. You can do more if you have a circle of friends with integrity that get tested and stay safe while apart. That way yall can be even more social without masks. The getting tested and always being safe outside of your circle is the key part that people don't follow and lie about.

If my anxious ass can cope I know other people can.

Side note. A lot of medical treatments fail not because the treatment does not work, it's because people stop treatment the moment they feel better thus regressing. That's what's happening in the world.

[Mitters]

I notice absolutely nothing about this dumb virus here, everything is back to normal. Only sign is the actual signs that says ''keep your distance'', because mandatory masks in busy streets failed so they gave up.

I've been back in the gym and everything, full contact boxing sparring since July 1st.

[PhaelixWW]

Side note. A lot of medical treatments fail not because the treatment does not work, it's because people stop treatment the moment they feel better thus regressing. That's what's happening in the world.

Case in point:

I notice absolutely nothing about this dumb virus here, everything is back to normal. Only sign is the actual signs that says ''keep your distance'', because mandatory masks in busy streets failed so they gave up.

I've been back in the gym and everything, full contact boxing sparring since July 1st.

They think "everything is back to normal", but in reality they went from averaging ~50 new cases a day at the beginning of July to 500+ a day a month later, and for the month since.

[Coolthulhu]

I thought people had learned to live with this virus in the wild. At least that it would plateau and we would not have to worry about spikes. People need to relax.

Well clearly you thought wrong, seeing as how people learned nothing at all, keep disregarding social distancing because partying is more important than breathing apparently, and even most of those who are less imbecilic still haven’t learned how to properly use PPE over several months - hell, the situation even worsened, at least when the whole thing was scary they weren’t properly fitted but they at least kept the nose covered, whereas now seeing people covering just their mouth (or using masks as if they were arm bands) is commonplace. Worse yet, we now face throngs of negationists because they “can’t see the virus” (sic) or anyhow believe it’s not a thing for one inane reason or another. There’s very little cause to relax.

[Granyala]

I'm absolutely terrified by the reopening of schools in Europe.

Don't be.
Germany's schools have been open for a month now and what happened?

Right: nothing. We had a gentle increase in detected cases, most were from vacation returnees (since that's the main testing area now) and a few from private parties.

There are outbreaks in various districts throughout Germany, which are associated with different
situations, e.g. larger celebrations in the family and among friends. In addition, COVID-19 cases are
identified to a large extent among travel returnees, especially in the younger age groups.

Source: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...ublicationFile

There was no "ERMAGAAWD CATASTROPHIC SPIKE DUE TO SCHOOL OPENINGS!!11"

People need to stop overdramatizing this damn virus. There is nothing to be "terrified" about. I'm sick and tired of all this nonsensical fearmongering.
Europe does not have excess mortality since week 20 now.

We need:
Vigilance: yes. Fear: no.

[Forogil]

Don't be.
Germany's schools have been open for a month now and what happened?

Right: nothing. We had a gentle increase in detected cases, most were from vacation returnees (since that's the main testing area now) and a few from private parties.
There was no "ERMAGAAWD CATASTROPGIC SPIKE DUE TO SCHOOL OPENINGS!!11"

People need to stop overdramatizing this damn virus. There is nothing to be "terrified" about. I'm sick and tired of all this nonsensical fearmongering.
Europe does not have excess mortality since week 20 now.

Currently true (possibly except some countries like Russia), but several countries in Europe are seeing increasing cases like France, and to a smaller extent Italy and the UK.

Certainly Germany has it under control (at least for the moment). Maybe the others will also get it under control, maybe not. However, even if the reported cases in France are now larger than in March/April it's likely that the actual cases were far larger back in March/April.

I agree that overdramatizing is a problem and I believe that it also increases the problem - since we are likely to focus on a few things (like schools) and ignore other things that are as important, or even more important, and also that it grows tiring and since it cannot go on forever there is a risk of declaring "victory complete" and go back to old normal.

[Coolthulhu]

Don't be.
Germany's schools have been open for a month now and what happened?

Right: nothing. We had a gentle increase in detected cases, most were from vacation returnees (since that's the main testing area now) and a few from private parties.

An amusing definition of nothing, considering the education unions' opinion on the matter. And the unacceptable delays in testing for returning travelers, since you brought that up.

People need to stop overdramatizing this damn virus. There is nothing to be "terrified" about. I'm sick and tired of all this nonsensical fearmongering.
Europe does not have excess mortality since week 20 now.

We need:
Vigilance: yes. Fear: no.

Fear is useful, it keeps people from acting idiotically. It's what allowed the first wave to die down in Europe. As the fear diminished in the post first wave phase, cases started soaring again. Now that the holidays are over in most of Europe, fear has returned: people returning to big, crowded cities, schools reponening... far more scary than being on holiday. And what I'm seeing as a result is a higher level of compliance with anti-Covid measures - a higher level of vigilance, if you prefer. How is that a bad thing?

[Granyala]

Fear is useful, it keeps people from acting idiotically.

Excessive fear is detrimental to rational thought. And history has proven time and time again, that people in a panic will do ANYTHING idiotic or not, if they think it helps them survive.

I say, respect the virus but do not fear it. Especially if you are <60.
Statistics indicate that the bug is harmless to this age group.


Why should I (35) be "terrified"? It makes no sense at all.

BTW, I chuckled at the 100+ group. Didn't know there were that many of them

PS: If you think there was a second wave in Germany, think again:
Table translation:
week | #tests | #positve | %positive | #of labs submitting data

Yeah, that's what media LOVES to withhold.
Everyone sees "rising numbarz!!11" but few people put these numbers into a proper context.

If you e.g.: test 3x as many people today compared to yesterday, you're bound to find more positives, even if the %age of infected is actually constant.

[Ghostpanther]

Excessive fear is detrimental to rational thought. And history has proven time and time again, that people in a panic will do ANYTHING idiotic or not, if they think it helps them survive.

I say, respect the virus but do not fear it. Especially if you are <60.
Statistics indicate that the bug is harmless to this age group.


Why should I (35) be "terrified"? It makes no sense at all.

BTW, I chuckled at the 100+ group. Didn't know there were that many of them

PS: If you think there was a second wave in Germany, think again:
Table translation:
week | #tests | #positve | %positive | #of labs submitting data

Yeah, that's what media LOVES to withhold.
Everyone sees "rising numbarz!!11" but few people put these numbers into a proper context.

If you e.g.: test 3x as many people today compared to yesterday, you're bound to find more positives, even if the %age of infected is actually constant.

That is some excellent points. While I do personally respect it and try to follow the rules to help reduce it, the extent of fear over here, is being pushed for mainly political reasons.

[Granyala]

What I am waiting for are the October/November months.
Traditionally these are the "plague months" at my school. Last year, 33% of my colleagues were taken out by illnesses.

It'll be very interesting if we see a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 during that time, though I am hoping that the test they use is specific enough to not get triggered by the more common corona viruses we have every year.

[Felya]

If you e.g.: test 3x as many people today compared to yesterday, you're bound to find more positives, even if the %age of infected is actually constant.

If you test X amount of people or 3x amount of people... what is the change in the actually infected?