[EU] Brexit negotiations at a standstill

[dribbles]

"Look how small the list of trade deals is when I get to define what a trade deal is in the narrowest way I possibly can".

Why can I tell that when it comes to defining the "trade deals" that the UK put in place after Brexit he's going to use a much, much broader definition? Because that's the nature of the Brexiteers; the only way that they can stop Brexit looking like a gigantic fuck up is to lie, cheat and mislead at all times.

I'm not knocking or minimising EU achievements just presenting it how it is. Slanty brought up CETA specifically as an example so look at that and why a sovereign UK better equivalent will not have the dire problems that have taken more than a decade to resolve.

2016 it was the Walloons preventing progress in negotiations, today it is the Cypriots, tomorrow it will be the Italians, CETA is years from full ratification.

Brexit benefits remove all such obstacles from the equation allowing quick deals to be done. UK/Japan deal is testament to that.

[Temp name]

I'm not knocking or minimising EU achievements

Let me just stop you there because that is all you ever do. Every time the EU does something you talk about how bad it is, or how much better the UK is now that you're not part of the EU. That is literally knocking and minimizing the EU's achievements.

[Forogil]

Considerably lower than 0.04% in fact when referring to school age kids in and taken across the general population.

Professor Calum Semple of the University of Liverpool today says and reports in the BMJ...

He reports in the BMJ, but your quote below is from the Guardian - not BMJ.
Only someone with no knowledge of the various sociolects of the English language would assume otherwise.

That study was for children aged 0-19. I'm a bit unsure about the English school-system, but I doubt that children are enrolled in school before their first month.

And the meteor comparison was with people under the age of 40 - and the number I quoted was therefore for people under 40; not two year old school children.

Or in other words: your claim is deemed FALSE.

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Ok, sure. Let pick 0.04%. That's the fatality for children, right?

The fatality was for people under 40, and is higher than the children fatality as fatality increases with age (a rough estimate is that it corresponds to your age-related chance of dying in the next year).

Now, tell me what the fatality for their parents is. Their older siblings. Their grandparents. Everyone else they come in contact with. I mean, personally, any unncessary increase in children lethality is bad, I think you'll agree with me there. But thanks for forcing me to actually kill his argument dead.

Of those groups it's primarily the grandparents that are at risk.

However, risk of dying to meteors is an extremely silly comparison - as the main risk is an unprecedented event (in historic time) that kills millions or so. The risk that you and at most 10 others die of one meteor strike is a lot smaller than the risk of dying to covid-19.

[Breccia]

Look, I won't pretend I understand the Brexit dealings -- in fact I'll admit I don't. But this seems relevant.

https://apnews.com/0e12e6463481226eaed70022f8967fb7Johnson says UK will quit Brexit talks if no deal by Oct 15

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson talked tough on Sunday ahead of a crucial round of post-Brexit trade talks with the European Union, saying Britain could walk away from the talks within weeks and insisting that a no-deal exit would be a “good outcome for the U.K.”

With talks deadlocked, Johnson said an agreement would only be possible if EU negotiators are prepared to “rethink their current positions.”

The EU, in turn, accuses Britain of failing to negotiate seriously.

Britain left the now 27-nation EU on Jan. 31, three-and-a-half years after the country narrowly voted to end more than four decades of membership. That political departure will be followed by an economic break when an 11-month transition period ends on Dec. 31 and the U.K. leaves the EU’s single market and customs union.

Without a deal, the New Year will bring tariffs and other economic barriers between the U.K. and the bloc, its biggest trading partner. Johnson said the country would “prosper mightily” even if Britain had “a trading arrangement with the EU like Australia’s” — the U.K. government’s preferred description of a no-deal Brexit.

I...honestly don't know what Johnson expects to accomplish here. Maybe I missed something important, but if I'm reading this correctly, he's about to walk away from the only way to negotiate even a substandard deal for the UK, and instead, leave the UK with nothing but harsh penalties. Does he really think he has the upper hand here, enough to force the entire rest of EU to beg on their knees to come back?

[Lanrefni]

Look, I won't pretend I understand the Brexit dealings -- in fact I'll admit I don't. But this seems relevant.

https://apnews.com/0e12e6463481226eaed70022f8967fb7Johnson says UK will quit Brexit talks if no deal by Oct 15



I...honestly don't know what Johnson expects to accomplish here. Maybe I missed something important, but if I'm reading this correctly, he's about to walk away from the only way to negotiate even a substandard deal for the UK, and instead, leave the UK with nothing but harsh penalties. Does he really think he has the upper hand here, enough to force the entire rest of EU to beg on their knees to come back?

Johnson and his friends have a lot of money invested in companies that are going to make bank on this,they don't give a shit if the country burns,they can just take an extended vacation in the tropics till things settle down.

[Skulltaker]

I...honestly don't know what Johnson expects to accomplish here. Maybe I missed something important, but if I'm reading this correctly, he's about to walk away from the only way to negotiate even a substandard deal for the UK, and instead, leave the UK with nothing but harsh penalties. Does he really think he has the upper hand here, enough to force the entire rest of EU to beg on their knees to come back?

He's backed himself into a corner, appearing big is the only thing left he can do. There literally is nothing else. If this wasn't the day of telecommunication, but instead ye olde tymes, he could talk big in england and then beg and grovel in Brussels, to get a good deal, but today he'd just get filmed doing it and lose all creedibility he has left with his own base.

Johnson and his friends have a lot of money invested in companies that are going to make bank on this,they don't give a shit if the country burns,they can just take an extended vacation in the tropics till things settle down.

Also this.

[Gorsameth]

Look, I won't pretend I understand the Brexit dealings -- in fact I'll admit I don't. But this seems relevant.

https://apnews.com/0e12e6463481226eaed70022f8967fb7Johnson says UK will quit Brexit talks if no deal by Oct 15



I...honestly don't know what Johnson expects to accomplish here. Maybe I missed something important, but if I'm reading this correctly, he's about to walk away from the only way to negotiate even a substandard deal for the UK, and instead, leave the UK with nothing but harsh penalties. Does he really think he has the upper hand here, enough to force the entire rest of EU to beg on their knees to come back?

I've been saying it for a long time now.
Boris wants a no deal brexit. He isn't after a good deal for the UK or securing the UK's future. He has bet against the UK economy and there are plenty of ways for people to earn money out of an economic disaster.

From the moment he became PM Boris has been rushing to push the UK into a no-deal Brexit. This has always been his plan and he hasn't even been sneaky about it.

[Slant]

Look, I won't pretend I understand the Brexit dealings -- in fact I'll admit I don't. But this seems relevant.

https://apnews.com/0e12e6463481226eaed70022f8967fb7Johnson says UK will quit Brexit talks if no deal by Oct 15

I...honestly don't know what Johnson expects to accomplish here. Maybe I missed something important, but if I'm reading this correctly, he's about to walk away from the only way to negotiate even a substandard deal for the UK, and instead, leave the UK with nothing but harsh penalties. Does he really think he has the upper hand here, enough to force the entire rest of EU to beg on their knees to come back?

Nobody cares in the EU, we're busy with Covid. Also:

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/st...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

EU sources say they’re “not bothered” by PM’s new deadline of “Either there’s an EU trade deal on table mid October or there’ll be no deal at all.” Diplomats in Brussels note wryly they’ve seen quite a number of Boris Johnson #Brexit “deadlines” come and go /1
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
·

Previously the PM had said the outline of a deal *had* to be in place over the summer or... But while EU may be dismissive of new Downing Street deadlines, they are very down about current state of EU-UK trade talks /2
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
·

Before commenting on leaked government plans for domestic legislation overriding parts of the Brexit divorce deal aka Withdrawal Agreement incl the Irish Protocol, the EU Commission (+Paris, Berlin) are waiting for clarifications from the government /3
katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
·

Speaking this morning on French radio the EU chief negotiator in trade talks with U.K. said « This protocol is a condition for preserving peace and the integrity of the internal market. It is also a precondition for the trust between us » ie UK and EU in current trade talks /4

He's even worse at this than May was. Which is quite an accomplishment, to be fair!

[Dhrizzle]

He's backed himself into a corner, appearing big is the only thing left he can do. There literally is nothing else. If this wasn't the day of telecommunication, but instead ye olde tymes, he could talk big in england and then beg and grovel in Brussels, to get a good deal, but today he'd just get filmed doing it and lose all creedibility he has left with his own base.

Like when May gave the EU Parliament a load of assurances, then went home and told the UK Parliament no to worry as the assurances weren't binding, and was absolutely shocked to find out the EU heard what she said and it undermined all she had "achived."

[Slant]

Like when May gave the EU Parliament a load of assurances, then went home and told the UK Parliament no to worry as the assurances weren't binding, and was absolutely shocked to find out the EU heard what she said and it undermined all she had "achived."

Yeah, live TV and public transcripts can be a bitch. It was really amusing to see her flail about as she realised that the guys in the EU don't just read English but also take an interest in what she says in public speeches. She must have been so used to nobody in the UK ever listening to any politician that she just assumed nobody would care... good times!

[jonnysensible]

why are the peasants worried about the price of bread should be the tory party slogan.

we are seeing globally a class of people who are extracting as much money as they dare out of society so that they can insulate themselves from the problems that they are causing.

cousins in Armagh are getting a bit serious

[Mihalik]

I haven't opened this thread in months and Dribbles is still arguing nonsense.

Wow. That's a fascinating degree of dedication or a full a time job. Wonder which?

[Kallisto]

I haven't opened this thread in months and Dribbles is still arguing nonsense.

Wow. That's a fascinating degree of dedication or a full a time job. Wonder which?

Let's just say I wouldn't drink any tea made by Dribbles. That's my answer to which of the two it is.

[Forogil]

Look, I won't pretend I understand the Brexit dealings -- in fact I'll admit I don't. But this seems relevant.

https://apnews.com/0e12e6463481226eaed70022f8967fb7Johnson says UK will quit Brexit talks if no deal by Oct 15



I...honestly don't know what Johnson expects to accomplish here. Maybe I missed something important, but if I'm reading this correctly, he's about to walk away from the only way to negotiate even a substandard deal for the UK, and instead, leave the UK with nothing but harsh penalties. Does he really think he has the upper hand here, enough to force the entire rest of EU to beg on their knees to come back?

There are a number of outcomes.

There is actually a negotiated deal as a usual trade deal. I find it unlikely that will be possible in time.
The EU actually caves; might happen, and pigs may fly.
The UK completely caves, but internally it is sold as a win. That might still be possible - I find it doubtful, but Boris can more easily sell it that way if he has been been perceived as tough.
UK crashes out, because the UK lacked negotiators, time, and an idea what they were negotiating. That seems more likely, and it's better for Boris to sell it as a strategy, and EU not rethinking their position than as the reality.

[Slant]

UK crashes out, because the UK lacked negotiators, time, and an idea what they were negotiating. That seems more likely, and it's better for Boris to sell it as a strategy, and EU not rethinking their position than as the reality.

To be fair, at this stage it's not really a negotiation. I mean, sure we can talk about fishing all day long, I've never looked into it, because that bit is actually the least important bit of it all. But the NI border question? Not a negotiation. That's why they're going to ultimately crash out. Because those idiots seem to be under the impression that the can somehow sweet talk the EU into dissolution. And make no mistake, that is what is at the core of this. If the EU sells the integrity of the single market and opens up its external borders to untrustworthy countries like the UK, what's even the point of the single market?

[Forogil]

The issue is with the Withdrawal Agreement. That one is an international treaty that will have to go into effect. And it is a crappy treaty for everyone involved that could perhaps have been made workable with a decent trade treaty.

There is some talk from the UK about leaving that as well, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN25X0X2
Don't know if that's just talk or if they are that stupid.

And while the UK is discussing having something like EU-Australia trading, the EU is discussing a trade agreement with Australia.

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To be fair, at this stage it's not really a negotiation. I mean, sure we can talk about fishing all day long, I've never looked into it, because that bit is actually the least important bit of it all. But the NI border question? Not a negotiation.

The NI border is already part of the withdrawal agreement that the UK signed.

If the UK hadn't signed that the UK would already have crashed out on January 31st, and if the UK word isn't worth the ink it's written with - then there is no point in negotiating anything.

[Gorsameth]

Worst case for the EU at this point would be a no-deal, the UK refusing to implement proper checks in the Irish Sea and the EU being forced to put a border between NI and Ireland.
And then its a question if the EU or UK gets blamed for that. The EU can easily explain why its the UK's fault (they sold out NI with the Withdraw agreement and failed to implement it) but it can be hard to predict how people will react.

Or would the EU rather put a border between Ireland and the rest of the EU?
What would Ireland rather have, a border with NI or a border with the rest of the EU?

[Slant]

The NI border is already part of the withdrawal agreement that the UK signed.

If the UK hadn't signed that the UK would already have crashed out on January 31st, and if the UK word isn't worth the ink it's written with - then there is no point in negotiating anything.

Er, that topic is not over, mate. Back then the WA could only be waved through the UK parliament, because it postponed technical definitions to this agreement we're talking about right now. If I understand the events correctly, this is what's stalling everything (again).

So yeah, the NI border is part of the existing WA, but it's far from resolved and could break the neck of an orderly Brexit.

I mean, this is too easy really, but I'll do it anyway... told you so. No, I'm not smart, but it was really easy to predict.

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Worst case for the EU at this point would be a no-deal, the UK refusing to implement proper checks in the Irish Sea and the EU being forced to put a border between NI and Ireland.
And then its a question if the EU or UK gets blamed for that. The EU can easily explain why its the UK's fault (they sold out NI with the Withdraw agreement and failed to implement it) but it can be hard to predict how people will react.

Or would the EU rather put a border between Ireland and the rest of the EU?
What would Ireland rather have, a border with NI or a border with the rest of the EU?

There is no choice here. There isn't even a conditional "if the UK doesn't do this then the EU does that".

When they crash out, a border will exist overnight. It's a legal consequence that British people still seem to think doesn't exist. The natural state of two countries next to each other is a border between them to tell where one country (and its rules) ends and another country begins.

Why do people still talk about this as if it was optional, or someone "wanting" it or part of a menu of different choices to pick depending on your taste? Do people not understand how countries work?

Also, just to put that idea to rest: Ireland does not want a border between itself and the EU. They are right now gobbling up all the international traffic the UK is losing. They are going to be the new gateway into the EU for any international company that prefers an English speaking environment. Their interest in keeping the GFA up and make their border people happy is much, much less than that of the UK actually facing the danger of resurging terrorism (and of course the closure of the most obvious backdoor in the history of statemanship).

[Gorsameth]

Er, that topic is not over, mate. Back then the WA could only be waved through the UK parliament, because it postponed technical definitions to this agreement we're talking about right now. If I understand the events correctly, this is what's stalling everything (again).

So yeah, the NI border is part of the existing WA, but it's far from resolved and could break the neck of an orderly Brexit.

I mean, this is too easy really, but I'll do it anyway... told you so. No, I'm not smart, but it was really easy to predict.

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There is no choice here. There isn't even a conditional "if the UK doesn't do this then the EU does that".

When they crash out, a border will exist overnight. It's a legal consequence that British people still seem to think doesn't exist. The natural state of two countries next to each other is a border between them to tell where one country (and its rules) ends and another country begins.

Why do people still talk about this as if it was optional, or someone "wanting" it or part of a menu of different choices to pick depending on your taste? Do people not understand how countries work?

Also, just to put that idea to rest: Ireland does not want a border between itself and the EU. They are right now gobbling up all the international traffic the UK is losing. They are going to be the new gateway into the EU for any international company that prefers an English speaking environment. Their interest in keeping the GFA up and make their border people happy is much, much less than that of the UK actually facing the danger of resurging terrorism (and of course the closure of the most obvious backdoor in the history of statemanship).

I bring it up because per the withdraw agreement the border is supposed to be in the Irish sea between NI and the rest of the UK, not between Ireland and NI. Crashing out doesn't change that, or it's not supposed to change that. What actually ends up happening is kind of up in the air at this point.

That is how Boris got his deal, May got stuck with a construction where the UK couldn't actually leave the EU without a full trade agreement because a hard border in Ireland was unacceptable. Boris got around that by moving the border into the EU and effectively placing NI outside the UK.

[Slant]

I bring it up because per the withdraw agreement the border is supposed to be in the Irish sea between NI and the rest of the UK, not between Ireland and NI. Crashing out doesn't change that, or it's not supposed to change that. What actually ends up happening is kind of up in the air at this point.

That is how Boris got his deal, May got stuck with a construction where the UK couldn't actually leave the EU without a full trade agreement because a hard border in Ireland was unacceptable. Boris got around that by moving the border into the EU and effectively placing NI outside the UK.

So, here's the gist of what's in the WA: The UK agreed to a border in the Irish Sea, given that it would be able to implement "technical solutions" to facilitate an almost friction-less crossing of said border. The sour pill is this: If the EU decides that they're full of shit and nothing is happening to protect the external border of the EU, they can unilaterally can the entire thing and put up a hard border on the Island of Ireland to facilitate the integrity of the external border and the single market.

So, whatever scenario, crash out is gonna be a crash out. I don't see anything changing unless the UK lets their pants down, bends over and hands the EU some lube... or no lube, up to them, to be honest.